The reasons that sports betting supremacy is disproportionate to those who master computer software are infinite. Among them, it eradicates knee-jerk scientifically unsound proclivities. Whereas so many fundamental realities categorically cross sports, dubiously the most distinguishable exception is the consequence of momentum.
Expectedly, college sports are the outlier, while professional teams are more likely to bounce back. Not only are younger athletes more susceptible to be streaky, but also college sports are where bowl and tournament seedings induce “statement wins” to have tangible significance.
In the college football regular season, teams after a win of 36 points or more, when not playing a team off a win margin of 34 or more are 1486-1234-56 for 54.6 percent. However, time off hinders momentum, so when rested eight days or less, such teams are 1315-1056-47. That’s an impressive 55.5 percent with an imposing sample size of about 2,400 games.
Unexplainably, when performed on neutral sites, it’s only 11-15-1. While there isn’t a clear-cut justification reason why—a small sample size is probable—when the game is played on the home field of one of the participants, the outcome is 1304-1041-46 for 55.6 percent.
Then again, we have explored the misconceptions about neutral field and court handicapping. Hence, eliminating those complexities is sound.
While “regression to the mean” is among our money machine declarations borne out by winning systems, not-so-fast on the collegiate gridiron. Of course, there are substantially more profitable subsets we have saved into the computer vaults.
Though the winning percentage is not substantial enough to harness without corroboration, the sample size makes it noteworthy that in the college football regular season, teams off a win are 5451-5179-217 when playing a team off a loss. However, when the team with more short-term momentum is clearly outmatched on the road (visiting underdogs of at least 22), said teams are just 65-96-5. Thus, excluding that cluster heightens the angle.
Bottom line, while so many principles, most notably counterintuitive ones, triumphantly crossbreeding into other sports, momentum is an eminent exclusion. Computer enhanced science-based conclusions should always override assumptions and agendas.
The author Joe Duffy is a Grandmaster Sports Handicapper and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He is widely accepted as the top professional sports handicapper in the history of North American sports.