All posts by Joe Duffy

Sports Betting News

Odds To Win NBA Championship

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As the post All-Star Game stretch run is set to begin, sportsbooks have the Boston Celtics and
Detroit Pistons as the favorites to win the 2008 NBA Championship.

Boston is +265
while Detroit is +275 according to Bookmaker. NBA betting expert
Curt Thomas from GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com says the oddsmakers recognize the Eastern
Conference Champion will have an easier road than the Western Conference. “We
could see a team win 50 games in the West and not make the playoffs,” says
Thomas, “thus no team had an quick path while the East should come down to the
Pistons and the Celtics.”

Phoenix and
newly acquired center Shaquille O’Neal are next at +500, followed very closely
by the Spurs at +505. Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com
emphasizes, “The Spurs have been there, done that,” and adds that they
are better than their record indicates because of several injuries.

Perennial bridesmaid and first-round upset victim last
year, Dallas is +600. The Lakers,
who recently added Pau Gasol
to the equation, are +700.

Can LeBron James repeat and exceed last year’s one-man
show? The Cavaliers are +2000, showing little respect for the defending Eastern
Conference Champions.

Who is the best long shot? Thomas says it’s New
Orleans at +1100. “Their starting five is their
strength and benches shorten up in the postseason,” says the NBA betting guru.

To win your bets for the NBA stretch run, March Madness
and more, visit OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Betting News

Next President of the United States: Betting Odds Update

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The Potomac Primaries and of course Super Tuesday results
taken into account. Bookmaker
has Barack Obama as the betting favorite to be elected President of the United
States in the 2008 Presidential Election.

Obama is -110 in
the POTUS race. Fellow Democrat Hillary Clinton is +205, while Republican John
McCain is +220. The field, which would include any independent or third-party
candidate, is +7000.

RealClearPolitics.com, which has among its most popular
features, a consensus of all the national polls, has hypothetical primary
election match-ups quite close. Obama has a 47.7-44 percent lead over John
McCain, but McCain gets the upper hand against Clinton
47-45.2.

McCain is struggling with support among conservatives.
According to sports
betting expert Joe Duffy, no political novice either, “Many conservatives
will stay home if Obama is the Democratic nominee, but if it’s Clinton,
it will be as simple as ABC,” Duffy pauses, “Anybody but Clinton.”

Though McCain is the presumed Republican nominee, the
Democratic race is tight, but perhaps not says according to the oddsmakers. Bookmaker has Obama a
prohibitive -260 favorite to be the party nominee, with once-frontrunner Clinton
now at +200.

According to Duffy, Clinton
is a live dog. “The Clinton machine
is ruthless,” Duffy said reminding bettors of Bill Clinton’s nickname this time
16 years ago, “The Comeback Kid”.

BetUs
Sportsbook allows the more general bet of which party will win the White
House. Democrats are -225, while Republicans are +175.

Follow American Idol
betting, updated POTUS
betting odds and more on OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Betting News

What to Expect For the Rest of February NCAA Betting

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Here is a sample crib sheet of news, notes, trends and
tendencies that OffshoreInsiders.com handicappers
use.

Arizona, Not a Wise Bet?

Nic Wise is Arizona’s
only true point guard and will likely not be back for the Pac-10 Tournament,
perhaps even the NCAA Tournament. This is a huge loss and the Wildcats will toil
against good pressure defenses. Those who best halftime lines, look for Arizona
to struggle late in games with no depth at point guard.

However, should Zona struggle as
expected then get Wise back earlier than anticipated, we will ride them,
knowing their game will return.

Oregon State, Ride Them

Okay, let’s explain our successful dichotomous spread team
theory again. We discount 98 percent of
trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. In short, if a
team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for
that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.

Oregon State
has a rallying cry. They have used reports from an “unnamed coach” being quoted
as saying OSU quit on the season. They will be
getting a lot of points, in their remaining contests, in arguably the toughest
conference. Because they are a rare substandard team in the Pac-10, Beavers
bettors will benefit from sandwich games, letdown games, and look-ahead
contests. They should be a good spread time from here on out.

Carolina, Vulnerable ATS

It’s not likely North Carolina
is going to sneak up on any team or oddsmaker. But
now they have several key injuries: star Ty Lawson
remains sidelined, Marcus Ginyard is playing wounded
on both feet, Deon Thompson is less than 100 percent and one of their best
bench players, Bobby Frasor is out for the year.

“Chemistry” is one buzzword we actually welcome and
subscribe to the theory. Keep in mind that the Tar Heels have already had three
overtime games in the ACC and three games decided by two or fewer points in
their first 10 conference games.

Yes, they have depth, but not only is that being tested
but Carolina has had to change
lineups often. While other teams are gelling this time of the year, Carolina
is making adjustments.

Be Leery of Betting on Kansas State

The Wildcats have been one of the great surprises in the
nation under first year coach Frank Martin. But they’ve gone from hunter to the
hunted. Also, they have their biggest tests coming up at home to Texas
on Feb. 26 followed by a huge rematch against a Kansas
team they recently conquered. However, the rematch is at Allen Fieldhouse. We think K States Vegas betting value has
reached its peak.

The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com.
It’s approaching conference tournament time. From the mid-majors to the “BCS”
conferences, nobody picks more winners than Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor
of OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Bet On Sports: Yards Per Points in Football Pointspread Betting

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Each and every season all sports should be a learning
experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves,
evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations
in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football
season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail
about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was
the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s companies. I believe that
was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by
points scored. On defense, it’s yards allowed divided
by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the
ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not
waste yardage or “leave points on the field” so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful
defensive stands. However, conventional
thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient
teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one
would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was
and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements
I’ve made in my handicapping over the decades.

We’ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy
and validity of a team’s performance. We don’t have the time and space to go
over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets
more yards “wins”) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net
yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others “rank” teams by total yards per game in passing,
rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use
the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to
the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting
strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com,
but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or
underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which
have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected
by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards
per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the
worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by
maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual
production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by
not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated
they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable
than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats.
The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most
part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal
of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet)
the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest
upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially,
it proved to be a great a great way to “buy low and sell high” and apply it to
handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net
yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated
each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of
course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward
to next football season.

No need to wait until next football season to bet on
sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. With March Madness betting around the corner,
note that Duffy’s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr.
March and the Lord of the Dance.


Sports Betting News

Latest Presidential Betting Odds

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Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain and Rudolph
Giuliani respectively are the current favorites to win the US
Presidential election according to one of the European sportsbooks Ladbrokes.

Hillary Clinton is the slight favorite at 5/4, followed
closely by Obama at 2/1, John McCain at 4/1 and Giuliani at 8/1. Surging
Republican Mike Huckabee is 12/1, potential
third-party candidate Michael Bloomberg is 16/1, and Mitt Romney at 20/1.

Pro-choice when it comes to betting online candidate Ron
Paul is at 66/1. Also-rans include “two-Americas” John Edwards and Fred
Thompson each at 100/1. Disgraced potential Green Party candidate Cynthia
McKinney does not even show up on the radar screen.

Our preferred online casino is NewBodog but
they currently do not have updated POTUS odds. Republican
voters proved sports
betting expert Joe Duffy correct when he correctly stated, “A comeback by
the Arizona Senator would surprise few Presidential historians,” when we
previously previewed the potential Republican
and Democratic
nominees.

Regardless of the nominee, Democrats are heavily favored
to take the White House at 2/5 while the GOP is 7/4. This is quite surprising
considering the Democratic controlled Congress has approval ratings double
digits below the Republican President George Bush.

OffshoreInsiders.com will continue
to update political odds and previews.


Press Releases

The Power of 620 Sports Services With All of Your Sports Betting

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Conference play means you must be a daily client of MasterLockLine.com. The MasterLockLine is the power of 620 sports services behind every
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We are part of the OffshoreInsiders.com handicapping
network. Have you checked out the super popular Gambling News
section? It focuses on breaking news on your right to bet online and other key
industry news.

We also hand pick (no news aggregator) the best articles
and game previews from the standpoint of the sports bettor with Sports Betting
Previews taken from hometown newspapers and the team’s own websites.

We have everything you need. As an example get NBA Live Odds,
Chalk Gaming NBA
Matchups, StatFox NBA Matchups, NBA Game Report,
NBA Game Previews,
and NBA Trends.


Sports Betting News

Brady, Moss and Company Overwhelming Chalks to Win Super Bowl XLII

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It was only a question of by how much. The 16-0 New
England Patriots are the overwhelming favorites to win the 2008 Super Bowl.
Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company are probative -139 favorites
to win Super Bowl XLII.

The defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts are
next at +550. While we could find no credible NFL or sports betting expert who
believes anyone other than New England should be the
favorite, several agree they are far from a lock.

“If Marvin Harrison can get even 80-percent healthy, the
Colts will be a very live dog.” says Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com

The Dallas Cowboys are next at +685, though it is unknown
at this time if Jessica Simpson will attend any games in her pink Tony Romo jersey. Green Bay,
in Brett Favre’s sixth annual “might be his last
hurrah” checks in at +950.

Two years ago, Pittsburgh
became the first team road wild card squad in win the Super Bowl. The Jaguars
are +1900 to do the same. Ironically, they open up in Pittsburgh,
but the Steele City
boys get no respect at +5000.

Mike Godsey, the top NFL betting expert at GodsTips.com, believes the Chargers are
without question the best dark horse at +2004. “They no longer have the worst
postseason coach in NFL history (Marty Schottenheimer) and the fact Norv Turner underused LaDainian Tomlinson early in the year
may make Norv look like a mad genius”.

Godsey adds, “Ala Jake Delhomme, Philip Rivers can be
feast or famine, but he can carry a team when he’s on.”

Rounding out the AFC, the Tennessee Titans are very long
shots at +11250. The NFC teams that oddsmakers give little chance to are the Seattle
Seahawks at +4243, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7500, the other Manning, Eli and the
New York Giants at +7000 and the Washington Redskins at +6613.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com,
add that “If a riverboat gambler likes riding the hot hand, he may want to take
a long look at Washington” a team
that played much better when Todd Collins took over at quarterback.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of sports handicapping website OffshoreInsiders.com


Sports Betting News

Central Michigan-Purdue Betting Preview

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Central Michigan takes on Purdue in
the Motor City
bowl. The Boilermakers are an eight-point favorite with a total of 71.5-72, so
shop around at our vetted sportsbooks.

Taken from our sports betting
previews from articles around the Internet, Purdue players have expressed
how they want to go out on a high note after losing their final three regular
season games including to rival Indiana (a GodsTips.com
Wise Guy winner for sports bettors.

This is a rare bowl rematch as Purdue crushed the
Chippewas 45-22 back on Sept. 23.

The Bowl
previews told you that offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched
statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets
27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2
more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per
attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more
passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per
reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but
not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7
fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper
hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less
passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than
CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly
even.

CMU went 7-2 straight up down the stretch and 5-3-1 against the spread during that
span. They also exceeded the total in seven of their last eight. Purdue went
3-6 against the spread to close out the regular season, including three
straight losses outright.

 


Press Releases

Betting the Bowls and Winning With VegasExperts

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The nation’s top handicappers have bargain specials for
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