NFL week 1 expert picks begin with Packers-Seahawks plus Arizona-UTSA odds.
NFL week 1 expert picks begin with Packers-Seahawks plus Arizona-UTSA odds.
Joe Duffy was honored to be a guest on Inside the Huddle on CTV previewing the upcoming NFL season
The all-time top ranked sports service in terms of units won is out of Lake Tahoe, NV. His Double-Double Best Bets are extremely rare, averaging 50-to-65 or so per year. He has a Double-Double Best Bet, first of year that agrees with sports service out of the Midwest below
Very influential sports service known for college football and college basketball. They are No. 3 all-time in college sports, though the most sought after. They have three sides and seven totals, though one side is cancelled out by pick from superior service so make it two sides and seven over/unders
Service out of Pittsburgh is the top regional specialist in sports betting. They dominate picks for or against Pittsburgh area pro and college teams hitting close to 60 percent over any time period of Steelers, Pirates, Pitt, West Virginia, and Duquesne. Alabama/West Virginia side
Incredibly a sports service out of the Midwest remains No. 1 in college football based on all-time units won. You have won with their Executive Plays here since 2010! Three more today. Get the picks now or a free pick
This is the quality clients of Joe Duffy’s Picks get every day at OffshoreInsiders.com. Many have gotten these great picks for decades going back to our start on the scorephones more than 26 years ago. As Joe Duffy explains in the video, there are reasons the gap has widened between the sharps and the oddsmakers to levels not seen since last century.
Joe Duffy’s Picks is now 37-23 overall with 23 underdog winners. Yes as many underdog winners as losers of any kind the last 60 bets.
MLB
Wise Guy
TAMPA (ODORIZZI -110) NY Yankees (Vuno)
Tampa is 6-1 the last seven (+5.4 units). New York is 2-8 the last 10. In their last five games Tampa has a slugging percentage edge of .513 to .365. Last 10 it is .445 to .369. The OBP edge is a considerable .060.
NY is 1-6 with Nuno at home. Tampa is 7-1 at Yankee Stadium. In his last four starts, Jake Odorizzi has a 1.44 ERA and 0.88 WHIP. Nuno has a horrid 7.20 in his last three trips to the bump.
SEATTLE (YOUNG -112) Houston (Peacock)
When a team has their odds at +/- 125 and an AL squad averaging 4.7 or fewer runs per game after allowing eight or more runs they are a go-against at 740-564 (+119.4 units).
Seattle has a sweet .285 batting average their last seven games. Last five games Seattle has a slugging percentage of .469 to .391 for Houston, but an even more mind-blowing .486 to .337 last 10.
Seattle is 9-2 overall and 20-8 the last 28 road contests. Astros are 110-224 in their last 334 overall. Seattle is 4-0 in Houston.
Major
OAKLAND (CHAVEZ -105) Detroit (Verlander)
The top fade in all of MLB the last two years combined has been Justin Verlander. Detroit with him is 10-22 (-27 units) the last two years to AL team with a batting average of .260 or less. He is a laughable -20.8 units at home the last two seasons. Oakland is 21-3 in triple revenge the last two seasons for +21 units.
CLEVELAND (BAUER +138) LA Dodgers (Ryu)
Go against a starting pitcher who allows .5 or fewer homeruns per start after a game in which the bullpen gave up four or more runs us 948-851 +109.7 units. LA is 3-8 with Ryu when he is off four days rest. Road team is 10-5 when Ryu starts. Look at these splits. His road ERA is 1.62, but he is pitching at home where it is 5.03. While his road OBP against is .256, he is home where it is a sky high .333.
CUBS (WOOD +148) Boston (Workman)
It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.
Joe Duffy’s Picks goes 8-1, the only loser was by .5 point. The winners Arizona +130, Toronto -120, Colorado +108, and the White Sox. In hockey we laid -1.5 on Pittsburgh and won back +265! This is what you get from Joe Duffy’s Picks every day!
NBA
Wise Guy
INDIANA -4.5 Washington
As we have proven, the so called NBA zig-zag theory is a virtual wash. It is above .500 long-term but a slight loss with the juice. However, various bounce back angles which take several other factors into consideration do win long-term.
Home favorites of four or more off playoff loss are 132-93 for 58.7 percent.
OKLAHOMA CITY -5.5 LA Clippers
As we have proven, the so called NBA zig-zag theory is a virtual wash. It is above .500 long-term but a slight loss with the juice. However, various bounce back angles which take several other factors into consideration do win long-term.
Home favorites of four or more off playoff loss are 132-93 for 58.7 percent.
As we have proven, the so called NBA zig-zag theory is a virtual wash. It is above .500 long-term but a slight loss with the juice. However, various bounce back angles which take several other factors into consideration do win long-term.
When a team fails by at least 15 points against the spread in a zig-zag situation, they are 97-74-1.
Combining the two, home faves of four or more off 15-point or more spread playoff setbacks are 37-13.
NHL
Wise Guy
PITTSBURGH -1.5 +265 New York Rangers
The Rangers literally cannot score. Their power play is a joke and now 5-on-5 is horrid. One days rest is not enough for a team that became the first squad since 1989 to play seven playoff games in 11 days.
The Penguins will get more wins than the Rangers get goals from this point on.
MLB
Wise Guy
SEATTLE (HERNANDEZ -116) Oakland (Straily)
Oakland has lost 4-of-5. Seattle is 9-2 the last 11. When a team has their odds at +/- 125 and an AL squad averaging 4.7 or fewer runs per game after allowing eight or more runs they are 589-440, +109.1 units. Felix Hernandez has 21-10 team mark to Oakland with an ERA of 2.60 and a WHIP of 1.102.
In four starts to Seattle Dan Straily has an ERA of 6.75 and a WHIP of 1.768. Seattle has beaten him three straight. In seven starts King Felix has ERA and WHIP of 2.53 and 0.971.
MIAMI (KOEHLER -112) NY Mets (Wheeler)
NL Weekday Afternoon Game of the Month
The Marlins are 7-1 the last eight. The Mets have lost 5-of-6. The Mets for the season batting average and OBP of .229 and .302. Miami is 15-5 at home batting average and OBP of .305 and .369. In three road starts Zach Wheeler has ERA and WHIP of 7.05 and 1.696.
The home team is 6-0 in Tom Koehler starts. His home ERA and WHIP of 0.90 and 0.950, both epic numbers. The home team is 9-2 in the series. In five starts to th Mets Koehler has an ERA of 3.19 and a WHIP of 1.129.
Major
ARIZONA (ARROYO +130) Milwaukee (Peralta)
This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
TORONTO (BUEHRLE -120) Philadelphia (Lee)
This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
COLORADO (DE LA ROSA +108) Texas (Lewis)
Colorado is 9-2 the last 10 and 14-5 last 19. Texas is 2-6 going back further. When a team has their odds at +/- 125 and an AL squad averaging 4.7 or fewer runs per game after allowing eight or more runs they are a go-against at 712-548, +108.9 units.
Colorado for the season batting average and OBP of .307 and .356. Colorado has won three straight with Jorge De La Rosa. Last five games Colorado has a slugging percentage of .644 to .417 for Texas. In their last 10 games it is .594 to .335.
Colorado 6-1 to teams with a winning record. Texas 3-11 home to teams with a winning record.
WHITE SOX (DANKS -105) Cubs (Wood)
Go against a starting pitcher who gives up .5 or fewer home runs per start, after a game in which the bullpen gave up four or more earned runs is 922-834, +100.6 units.
The Cubs are 11-20 batting average and OBP of .228 and .293. On the road, it is a more rancid .222 and .269. In two road starts Travis Wood ERA and WHIP of 5.56 and 1.852.
This was an actual post on the Roswell, GA Police Facebook page while the entire Atlanta metropolitan area was in virtual lockdown because of an ice storm. Best of all, the AMC Theatre is not even in Roswell. It’s in neighboring Alpharetta.
Seems the brilliant Ms. Parker believes police officers do not need to attend to stranded school busses full of young children. They need to be Pooka’s chauffeur.
Time to analyze Super Bowl 48 odds and the early line movement between the Denver Broncos and Seattle Seahawks. The game in East Rutherford, NJ (though the media is assured to say, “New York” ad nausea) and potential cold weather could be a factor. The line opened up with Seattle as a one-point favorite at most sportsbooks with a total of 48. Money immediately flowed in on Denver and has seen the Broncos as much as a (-2.5) favorite. The total has remained steady at 47.5 says free sports picks though a 48 has been spotted at some offshore houses.
What is even more compelling is that heading into the conference finals, several major sportsbooks had an AFC vs. NFC prop to win the Super Bowl. The NFC was favorite by (-3). With both favorites winning, the likely matchup was Seattle and Denver when the spread was bettable.
So what has changed? The betting public has a very short attention span. The Broncos were dominant in dismantling New England 26-16 in a game that was not nearly as competitive as the final score would imply.
Seattle went down to the final possession against the 49ers, needing a now infamous Richard Sherman interception to preserve victory. Furthermore, Peyton Manning tossed for 400 touchdowns, assuaging the critics who questioned his big-game prowess.
In addition to short-term perception, Vegas contacts have told me they believe the Billy Walters picks betting syndicate is trying to manipulate the spread to (-3) to enable them unload on Seattle.
We expect the total to drop a bit, but probably not much until weather forecasts come in early next week for Super Bowl XLVIII. Speaking of weather, bettors should not fall prey to the inductive statistics that Peyton Manning struggles in cold weather.
Manning spent most of his career playing home games inside of a dome. Therefore his cold weather games were on the road. Wind conditions negatively affect offenses. A “Normal” amount of snow or rain, with wind below 10 mph, usually benefits the offense. When square players bet a total down because of rain or snow with negligible wind speed, it creates better value for the over.
Finally, one of our Golden Rules of sports betting applies here. The dictionary is a valuable tool when it comes to handicapping neutral games. Neutral games are neither home nor road games.
Squares robotically accept as true that that road statistics should be weighted more heavily in handicapping neutral games thinking it is a road game for both teams. No, a road game means a contest on their opponent’s field in front of their fans. The Super Bowl is a neutral contest for both squads.
Considering the more antiseptic atmosphere of the Super Bowl will allow each team to communicate audibles, the thought of road statistics slanted during evaluation is a delusion held exclusively by the inept gambler.
Market value in a point spread is without question among the most overlooked facets of sports betting. Knowledge of how much odds are based on perception and how much is based in reality is the most significant step in exploiting market fluctuations.
NFL wildcard odds are up for Wild Card Playoffs 2014.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i-oNqjaPDCI&feature=share&list=UU47eIZnnzpul0i36sWWrg9A
Picks for these games will be at OffshoreInsiders.com
04:35 PM |
Kansas City Chiefs |
+2½ |
+100 |
46 |
|
Indianapolis Colts |
-2½ |
-120 |
46 |
||
08:00 PM |
New Orleans Saints |
+2½ |
+100 |
55 |
|
Philadelphia Eagles |
-2½ |
-120 |
55 |
||
04:30 PM |
San Francisco 49ers |
-2½ |
-115 |
48½ |
|
Green Bay Packers |
+2½ |
-105 |
48½ |
||
04:35 PM |
San Diego Chargers |
+7 |
-110 |
46 |
|
Cincinnati Bengals |
-7 |
-110 |
46 |
||