It’s UAB vs. Central Florida on ESPN2.

Here is dissection of the key metrics used by sports betting experts in football handicapping.

The team that is better running the ball according to rushing yards per attempt is Alabama-Birmingham by .9.

Passing yards per completion says the more productive passing squad is also UAB by 1.3.

Betting specialists employ yards per point, a number that on the offensive side of the ball favors UCF by 2.7

Sports betting service with the must-bet football pick is from ScoresOddsPicks who specializes in football. That’s whey they are in the midst of one of the great, great seasons ever going back to NFX. On a 9-3 tear overall and a stunning 23-10 with the NFLX Hall-of-Fame game with all “named plays” get the UAB/UCF burial now. Not only is it a “named play” but it’s the NCAAF Best Bet of the Week! Click now to purchase

Now it’s time to focus on the numbers that the betting counselors cherish from a defensive standpoint. Yards per rush says the tougher defense is Central Florida by a full yard.

In juxtaposing yards per reception statistics, the margin on defense puts the positive checkmark in the column of UCF as well by .8.

The often overlooked yards per point defensive advantage is possessed by Central Florida by a margin of 4.0.

The net turnover ratio edge belongs to UCF by just one.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

It’s the official sports betting preview of today’s MLB playoffs.  These are compiled by the top totals handicapper Stevie Vincent.

Rangers vs. Rays

Rangers are 7-1 in their last 8 vs. a team with a winning record, 5-0 in their last 5 vs. American League East. On the other hand, Texas is 11-24 in their last 35 games with the total set at 7.0-8.5, 9-23 in their last 32 games on fieldturf, 1-6 in their last 7 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600.

Rays are 87-41 in their last 128 home games vs. a team with a winning record. 16-5 in Price’s last 21 starts vs. a team with a winning record and 21-7 at home with him. Tampa is 17-5 at home in the series.

From GodsTips, get the 1:35 EST and prime-time MLB sides. Also get the UAB-Central Florida total. We are on a 29-17 tear in football. Remember our only moneyline underdog in that span was Jacksonville +280 beating Indianapolis, so basically your wallet adds two more wins on top of that. Go 3-0 now. Click now to purchase

Reds vs. Phillies

Reds are 18-39 in their last 57 road games vs. a team with a winning record. However,  the Reds are 9-1 in Volquez’ last 10 road starts vs. a team with a winning record, 18-4 in his last 22 starts as an underdog.

Phillies are 12-1 in their last 13 playoff games as a favorite, 10-1 in their last 11 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, 12-3 in their last 15 playoff home games, 49-19 in their last 68 overall. They are 6-0 at home in the series.

Yankees vs. Twins

Yankees are 48-16 in their last 64 when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game, 47-18 in their last 65 vs. American League Central, 14-2 in Sabathia’s last 16 starts when their opponent allows 2 runs or less in their previous game. On the other hand, the Yankees are 3-8 in their last 11 overall, 0-9 in their last 9 games vs. a left-handed starter,

Twins are 53-24 in their last 77 home games vs. a left-handed starter, 63-30 in their last 93 home games overall. But Minnesota is 1-12 in their last 13 Divisional Playoff games including seven straight home losses, 1-10 in Liriano’s last 11 starts vs. American League East.

Here are today’s MLB betting lines.

The Randy Moss trade reaction is pouring in at WEEI sports radio and the Hub in Boston. Only Diana Taurasi is looking hotter than pro bettors as only the Hoosier lottery is making gamblers more money than the top football handicappers.

Now let’s get to MLB Playoffs picks. Your complimentary winner for Wednesday is from Matt Rivers on the Tampa Bay Rays -128 against Texas

I am not the biggest pro Tampa Bay Rays guy because I do think they have the potential to get beat in this series and the way they have performed down the stretch against bottom feeders in the Orioles and Royals showed just that. But and a big but here, David Price is an absolute beast and in my opinion deserving of the Cy Young award. Sure Cliff Lee is a former winner and a lefty that has a world of upside but I’m not really all that sure what Lee is right now. Things were better in September but all in all the stint in Texas just did not go well for Lee. I’m not sure if the southpaw was expecting to go to New York so that being shipped off to Arlington affected him in a negative way or what but nothing has been all that good. Again, I do admit that we saw glimpses of the old Lee towards the end but I’m just not all that sure if that is fully to be believed or not.

Texas has big boppers and can hit anybody most of the time but I say most and not all because of how dominant Price has been throughout this season. Vlad, Hamilton, Cruz, Young and the Rangers are a powerful lineup that is as scary as anybody. But I also definitely do really like Crawford, Longoria, Pena and the Rays and at home with Price hurling feel they can stack up with Ron Washington’s boppers.

I expect a well pitched game from both Price and Lee but in the end the Tampa lefty has been too consistent and should give us a rock solid seven plus inning performance. Lee may be good but the way he has been over the past few months truly doesn’t give me the confidence that he can match Price right now and in the end I see 5-2 Rays written all over this thing.

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I like it on Facebook: gamblers status is that they like it wherever Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world has his Performance Gap Analysis picks. It’s week 5 NFL trends.

After injuries wreaked havoc in the NFL betting results last week, let’s hope our luck changes in Week 5. Here’s a look at the early-game trends.

SUNDAY, OCTOBER 10

Broncos (2-2) vs Ravens (3-1)

The Broncos love to surprise good teams and play them close; they’re 4-1 ATS over their last five against teams with winning records. Then again, the Broncos are also 1-5 ATS over their six against AFC opponents. The hosting Ravens are also 42-18-1 over their last 61 games as a home favorite. Is Ray Rice poised for a huge bounce-back game? Baltimore is 6-1 ATS over its last seven after running for less than 90 yards the previous game.

Giants (2-2) vs Texans (3-1)

Maybe the Giants do better when they’re not expected to win? They’re 8-1-1 over their last 10 ATS as road underdogs of 0.5-3.0 points. But could grass play a factor? The Giants are 1-7 ATS over their last eight on grass whereas the surging Houston Texans are 5-1-1 over their last seven on grass.

Rams (2-2) vs Lions (0-4)

Crazy to think the Rams have a real shot to be over .500 after five weeks. Sam Bradford has them playing with confidence and they’re 7-2 over their last nine ATS after winning straight up by more than 14 points the week before. Betting sharps should also note that the lowly Lions are just 16-36-1 ATS over their last 53 games as a favorite and that six of the Rams’ last seven games have fallen UNDER the total.

Packers (3-1) vs Redskins (2-2)

The Redskins pulled the minor upset on the road last week but sportsbook bettors should tread carefully; they’re just 4-12 ATS over their last 16 home games. Aaron Rodgers’ Packers are 9-3-1 ATS over their last 13 games and 5-2 ATS over their last seven road contests.

Chiefs (3-0) vs Colts (2-2)

These ain’t your granddaddy’s Chiefs. Though they’re 2-7 ATS over the last nine meetings with Indy, they’ve beaten the spread five straight times overall and six times in their last seven road games. The Colts are, however, 5-1 ATS over their last six as a home favorite of 3.5-10.0. It’s a tough sports pick to make. This week should tell us a lot about Kansas City’s true identity.

It’s Troy State vs. Middle Tennessee State on ESPN2 odds.

We contrast the key success indicators used by pro bettors against both the college football schedule and in successful wagering on the NFL.

The superior team in terms of rushing yards per attempt on offense is Middle Tennessee State by 1.0,

Also on offense, when it comes to yards per reception the figures give the eminence to Troy by .6.

Vegas sharps exploit yards per point. Data says the more adroit team in that classification is MTSU by a modest .3.

We will look at the other side of the ball in a moment, but where is the football betting experts pick against the spread on this contest? It was New England easily and the over as the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month. The pro bettors at ScoresOddsPicks are on a 9-2 overall short-term run with both standard picks and named plays. Get a named play, the Tuesday Night Lock of the Year on Troy and Middle Tennessee State. Click now to purchase

Defensively on yards per rush, the disparity favors it’s Middle Tennessee by .9.

The better team at stopping the air attack according to passing yards per completion is also the Red Raiders by .8.

Yards per point dictates the shrewder defense belongs to MTSU as well, by .7

In net turnovers, the preeminence is Troy by a prohibitive 11.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

“My reliable sources tell me that Michael Vick is doubtful and he has, “struggled just to put on his clothes,” reports Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world.

While Duffy and Performance Gap Analysis continue to thrive in sports betting, another Vegas insider group is also having one of the best football seasons in terms of betting. ScoresOddsPicks nailed New England easily and the over as the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month. The pro bettors at ScoresOddsPicks are on a 9-2 overall short-term run with both standard picks and named plays. Get a named play, the Tuesday Night Lock of the Year on Troy and Middle Tennessee State. The latest point spread winner is up for Tuesday night football.

Here was the latest sweep:

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins – Monday at 8:30 p.m. ET

The Patriots (2-1, 1-2 ATS) 38-30 victory over the Bills. New England failed to cover the 14.5-point spread, and the game served as a microcosm of how this season is likely to go for the Pats: a great offense mixed with a terrible defense. Tom Brady continued his great start in 2010, completing 21 of 27 passes for 252 yards and three touchdowns against the Bills. He’s doing a great job spreading the football around, as seven different players caught passes. Brady was also aided by an improved running game. BenJarvis Green-Ellis rushed 16 times for 98 yards and a touchdown.

The defense, however, is a nightmare. The Pats are allowing a whopping 27 points per outing, and giving up 30 to the Bills is just embarrassing. Ryan Fitzpatrick completed over 70 percent of his passes against the overwhelmed secondary while the ground game racked up 134 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per pop. Last but not least, New England was burned for a touchdown on special teams. There’s no question Brady and Co. are in playoff form, but the “D” has some tremendous catching up to do.

Miami (2-1, 2-1 ATS) lost a 31-23 heartbreaker to the Jets last week (the Dolphins failed to cover as a one-point favorite). The team has nobody to blame but itself, especially after Chad Henne drove the Dolphins inside the 20-yard-line with seconds remaining. Despite managing to tie the game up, Henne should be applauded for a great game. He threw for a career high 363 yards and added a pair of touchdown passes. That said, the coaching staff could do a better job balancing the offense. Henne had 44 pass attempts, while running backs Ronnie Brown and Ricky Williams combined for just 18 carries (for 82 yards). Running the football is Miami’s bread and butter, so expect to see more of that on Monday night.

The Dolphins were exposed in a few areas on defense in last week’s loss to New York. Tight end Dustin Keller had a great day, racking up 98 yards and two touchdowns. The Pats have utilized a pair of rookie tight ends very well this season—Aaron Hernandez and Ron Gronkowski have combined for 18 catches for 269 yards and two touchdowns—so that will be a factor in tonight’s game.

There are some nice match ups for the Patriots to exploit in this one, particularly at tight end. Miami is going to rack up some points and you’re best bet is to take the over on the total. Look for Brady to continue his fine season, outduel Henne, and lead the Pats to a shootout victory.

The over is the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month

New England is a standard play

The personal bets of the Vegas syndicate are on OffshoreInsiders.com

“It is literally the DNA of football handicapping,” says Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world.

Duffy has announced the permanent capitalization of sports handicapping’s version of DNA:  employing a popular and scholarly business and economics tool, Performance Gap Analysis and applying it to sports betting in exploiting oddsmaker errors.

Based on years of experience, and significant trial and error, they’ve developed a “performance gap analysis”. It’s based on the statistical hypothesis testing and concludes that yards per rush, yards per pass, and yards per play on offense and defense are most indicative of talent and less variable. They are lead indicators.

Yards per point and turnovers are more affected by random chance or luck and are more correctable, hence more variable and tougher to maintain. They are lag indicators.

The former is more a precursor to future results than the latter. Any dichotomy between the two subsets measures upside/downside, overvalued and undervalued teams.

However Duffy puts the fears of long-time clients to rest, “This newest weapon merely tests and more times than not corroborates and substantiates our existing football handicapping methods,” assures Duffy.

But much like DNA in the courtroom, it will occasionally refute the preponderance of evidence and has cancelled a small percentage of bets.

“We’ve been quietly availing ourselves to this prototype, but more so in hypothesis test mode,” informs Duffy.

However, only a small percentage of bets will be affected. In some cases, plays will be upgraded, others slightly downgraded, while a small minority cancelled.

By upgrading and downgrading, it does not mean simply changing a Major to Wise Guy or visa versa.

When weighing their preponderance of evidence, certain potential picks are often “on the bubble” so further validation will upgrade so-called “strong leans” to premium picks.

“Performance Gap Analysis does not supersede or replace our time-tested and proven techniques,” reassures Duffy.

Among the procedures long mastered by Duffy include:

Situational: letdown, look ahead, and “sandwich” games; revenge, motivational, intangibles, etc.

Matchups of strengths and weaknesses: using some of the top experts including subscribing to real “scout services”. This is of course very much taking into consideration injuries.

Computer systems: most importantly knowing that to be statistically significant, the system must have a z-rating of 4.5 or better or at least 80 units on the plus side based on one-unit per bet.

Contrarian info: Betting with the sharp and against the square bettor.

Realizing the top expert is not the only expert: The famed competitor consensus plays. If they have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources that GodsTips respects has a big pick on a certain side, they pass along as a competitor consensus.

Outlaw lines: The official outlaw line is what the point spread would be without any adjustments to public perception. GodsTips exploits the dichotomy.

Comparing splits: home/road variances are contrasted with overall numbers. Most importantly, knowledge of how to utilize the data and many squares abuse it.

With information hotter than Jaime Edmondson, here is week 4 injury info for week 5 NFL picks.

For both fantasy football fans and NFL betting sharps, Week 4 was a bitter pill to swallow, as injuries affected several games. Let’s sort through the wreckage with an early injury report.

Michael Vick, Eagles: RIBS

Is the Eagles’ season about to go south in a hurry? Michael Vick has been one of football’s most exciting stories in 2010 but his glory may be short-lived thanks to a nasty hit he took in Philly’s loss to Washington on Sunday. As he walked off the field grimacing, it looked like he broke a rib or his collarbone. For now, the Eagles are calling him “day to day or week to week” with a rib cartilage injury. It’s still too early to tell how long he’ll be out and whether or not the injury will affect his throwing motion.

Jay Cutler, Bears: CONCUSSION

Poor Jay Cutler took nine sacks in just two quarters against the New York Giants before exiting with a concussion on Sunday night. Reportedly, he’s “doing OK” and may not miss any time, but the Bears’ offensive line is so bad that we should expect Cutler to take more big shots and get hurt again.

Darren McFadden, Raiders: HAMSTRING

Just when it looked like Run DMC was about to become a superstar…he gets hurt again. McFadden injured his hamstring and looks like he’ll turn over the running back reins to Michael Bush for at least a week.

LeSean McCoy, Eagles: RIBS

This news only broke today. Apparently more than one Philly skill player got his ribs banged up on Sunday. Starting running back LeSean McCoy fractured a rib in the defeat. If he doesn’t miss the Eagles’ next game, he’ll still probably be limited. The Eagles’ NFL futures suddenly don’t look like they did even one week ago.

Clinton Portis, Redskins: GROIN

The creaky veteran Portis showed surprising burst yesterday before “hearing his groin pop.” Ouch. Looks like Ryan Torain will get the lion’s share of the carries if Portis is out for a while. It certainly looks like he will be.

Pierre Thomas, Saints: ANKLE

Thomas didn’t play at all yesterday as he had trouble planting or cutting on his ankle before the Saints’ game against Carolina. Thomas’ Week 5 status is uncertain but, after Ladell Betts and Christopher Ivory did fine in his stead, perhaps the Saints won’t rush Thomas back.

Steve Smith, Panthers: ANKLE

We already had enough reasons to avoid betting on Carolina – but now Panthers’ top wideout Steve Smith is out with a high ankle sprain. The Panthers have a bye in Week 6 so we probably won’t see him until Week 7. Then again, Smith is a famously quick healer. Remember when he broke his arm over the summer?

Las Vegas betting odds are up for NFL picks and predictions on the New England Patriots vs. Miami Dolphins.

The bookmaker’s point spread is New England -1 or a pick.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Patriots are 22-7-1 ATS in their last 30 games in October, 20-7-1 ATS in their last 28 games after accumulating more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game, 19-9 ATS in their last 28 games as a road favorite.

Dolphins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as an underdog, 8-2 ATS in their last 10 vs. AFC East, but 15-40-1 ATS in their last 56 home games. The road team is 5-1 in the series.

Over/under trends: Over is 5-0 in Patriots last 5 games overall. Under is 7-1 in Dolphins last 8 games after accumulating less than 90 yards rushing in their previous game.

Top expert pick on this game: ScoresOddsPicks is beyond volcanic. Since the Hall-of-Fame Game, the pro bettors are 15-3 with pro football named plays. This includes three moneyline underdogs. Yesterday it was Washington outright over Philadelphia as the Football Best Bet Year to Date. Oh it was. ScoresOddsPicks is having one of the great pro football betting seasons ever recorded including NFLX.

Get the Monday Night Best Bet Total of the Month plus a standard play on the side. Oh, all picks are 7-2 the last two days. Click now to purchase

The posted online sportsbook’s total is 48 to 48.5.

Yes all the Monday Night Football picks are up and so are the odds to win the World Series. Baseball handicappers are monitoring yankees.mlb.com, phillies.mlb.com, rays.mlb.com, rangers.mlb.com and every important website for the latest DCS playoff round breaking news. The Philadelphia Phillies are the favorites, followed by Yankees baseball and surprisingly the Tampa Rays are tied with the devils as No. 2.

Courtesy of OddsShark.com: Today in the Daily Sports Roundup: A pair of AFC East division rivals clash on the gridiron as the Dolphins play host to the Pats down in Miami on Monday Night Football.

Colliding on the gridiron . . .

Monday Night Football this week has New England at Miami, with both of those teams looking to run their records to 3-1 on the season. The Patriots (2-1 SU, 1-2 ATS) needed 38 points to get past the lowly Bills 38-30 at home last week. Tom Brady went 21-of-27 for 252 yards passing for the Patriots in that victory, with three touchdown strikes and no interceptions. BenJarvus Green-Ellis ran for 98 yards and a score for New England that day. The Dolphins (2-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) are coming off a 31-23 home loss to the Jets in Week 3, as Chad Henne went 26-of-44 for 363 yards passing with two touchdowns and one interception. Oddsmakers have set Brady and the Patriots as 1-point road favorites for the Monday night contest, while the total for the matchup sits at 46.5 points.

Top expert pick on tonight’s card…

Oh GodsTips is 6-0 with college and pro football Wise Guys this week: BYU under Friday; Navy, TCU-under, Boise State under Saturday. Sunday it was the AFC Game of the Year on Cleveland, plus San Francisco to make it 6-0 with Wise Guys this week and 11-3 the last 14 football Wise Guys. But your wallet says that wasn’t even the biggest pick.

That was Jacksonville +280 as the first and only moneyline pick this season. Wow, get a Wise Guy side and a Major play on the total MNF Patriots vs. Dolphins. Click now to purchase