The Grandmaster continues to roll at 24-9 in football including 7-2 yesterday. This despite the brutal bad beat on Florida UNDER heartbreak backdoor. Home Underdog Game of the winner among nine NFL, led by three Wise Guys! Oh yes and the primetime domination continues as we are 4-0 with all NFL primetime bets. SNF side among the winners. Get the picks now
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Packers vs. Lions
- Road teams winless on road, decent at home SU are 178-118-8 (Green Bay)
- Fade road teams off shutout win is 60-38, unless a big favorite (Detroit)
- Better net yards per play but inferior record, go with team with worse record is 738-655 (Lions)
- Lions WR Marvin Jones, who has 15 catches for 2 TDs is out
- 265 career receptions
Broncos vs. Jets
- Road teams winless on road, decent at home SU are 178-118-8 (Denver)
Raiders vs. Chargers
- Go against bad defenses off win 129-72 (Raiders)
- LA Chargers 4-14 laying 3 or more at home, nine straight up losses
- 9 mph winds
Ravens vs. Browns
- Ravens 3-1 against the spread with league leading +12.2 margin of cover
- Ravens lead league in snaps per game at 74.8, Browns second, though two OT
- But also top 2 teams in plays per second
- Road teams versus an opponent that has yet to lose at home or win on road is 141-106-9, anti-splits angle (Ravens)
- Divisional under based on SU upset result of previous game (Ravens) UNDER 56-22
- Joe Flacco 12-6-1 to Cleveland against the spread
- Browns 2 OT games already and coming back from Oakland
- Ravens get star CB Jimmy Smith back from suspension
- Ravens first round TE Hayden Hurst makes debut
- Ravens TEs have combined for 31 receptions already
- Ravens TEs have combined for 31 receptions already
Giants vs. Panthers
- Road teams versus an opponent that has yet to lose at home or win on road is 141-106-9, anti-splits angle (Giants)
- Big favorites in non-divisional games versus good rushing teams goes under at 35-8
- Packers WR Davante Adams in good to go
Falcons vs. Steelers
- Totals of 57.5 or higher have gone over 9-3-1, including 8-1-1 last 10
- Atlanta 14-5 with 11 straight up wins underdogs
- Better net yards per play but inferior record, go with team with worse record is 738-655 (Falcons)
Free pick: OVER 58
Rams vs. Seahawks
- Rams 3-1 against the spread by 9.5 margin of cover, third in NFL
- Current total much higher than previous total (Seahawks) goes OVER 87-64
- Russell Wilson 4-1 straight up and against the spread as home underdog
- Rams LB Mark Barron, possibly their best defensive player, is expected to make his debut
- Light rain
Jaguars vs. Chiefs
- Chiefs only 4-0 against the spread team, though +7.1 is fourth best margin of cover
- Chiefs 3-of-4 games road, Jaguars 3-of-4 games have been home
- Chiefs over 3-1 +13.4 points per game, second highest in league
- Go against bad defenses off win 129-72 (Jaguars)
- Road team has inferior SU record but is not a significant dog, go with oddsmakers knowledge at 189-150-8 (Jacksonville)
- Chiefs 4-0 SU, Jags 3-1
- Jaguars RB Justin Fournette is out
- Chiefs star S Eric Berry is likely out
- KC is off a short week and playing in high altitude
- Better net yards per play but inferior record, go with team with worse record is 738-655 (Jags)
- Angle that basically says if a team’s record is substantially better than their net yards per play and said team is favorite, fade them 25-9 (Jags)
- Light rain expected
Cardinals vs. 49ers
- Arizona 2-2 -9.1, second worst in league
- Second best under teams, but No. 1 among teams that played four games at -8.8 and only team to go under all four games
- Cardinal dead last in plays per game at 49.5
- Road teams versus an opponent that has yet to lose at home or win on road is 141-106-9, anti-splits angle (Arizona)
- San Francisco 0-10 home favorites with half being straight up losses
- Cards star WR Larry Fitzgerald is good to go
- About 13 mph winds
Dolphins vs. Bengals
- Bengals over all four games by +13 points per game
- Miami second to last in plays per game but .5 snap behind Arizona and 7.5 fewer than No. 3 Dallas
- Bubble burst angle as Dolphins off first loss favors (Cincy 64-34)
- Go with road underdogs off road loss versus an opponent off road game under specific circumstances that apply today is 84-23 (favors Dolphins)
- Go against bad defenses off win 129-72 (Dolphins)
- Andy Dalton 34-21-6 when getting a majority of the tickets on this team
- Teams off a loss of 20 or more are 405-288 against the spread (Dolphins)
- Bengals get LB Vontaze Burfict back from suspension
Vikings vs. Eagles
- Vikings 2-2 with league-worst -9.2
- Eagles 73 snaps per game on offense
- Home favorites off OT loss are 51-72 against the spread (fade Eagles)
- Go with road underdogs off road loss versus an opponent off road game under specific circumstances that apply today is 84-23 (Vikings)
- Dalvin Cook is out
- Only 36 rushes for 98 yards but keeps defenses honest
- Vikings get S Anthony Harris back
- Eagles again likely without Darren Sproles
- Alshon Jeffrey eight catches for 105 yards and Carson Wentz third game back
- Vikings pass defense struggling slowing 8.5 passing yards per attempt to teams that normally allow 7.1
- Vikings just four runs of 10 yards or more
- Cousins throwing to Adam Thielen and Stefon Diggs
- Since 2016, Eagles allow 12.7 points per game at home, compared to 24.1 road
- Vikings rush game just 63 yards per game to teams normally allowing 98
- Eagles hold teams to .8 yards per pass below normal average
- Teams that made the playoffs previous season and allowing and scoring 21 or less in October or later, go over 62-38
Cowboys vs. Texans
- Go against bad defenses off win 129-72 (Cowboys)
- Road teams winless on road, decent at home SU are 178-118-8 (Cowboys)
- Better net yards per play but inferior record, go with team with worse record is 738-655 (Texans)
- WR Keke Coutee with 11 receptions and RB Lamar Miller with 225 yards rushing on 58 carries are both game-time decisions for Houston
- Miller more trending to doubtful
- WR Will Fuller with 17 receptions for Houston will play
Sharp bets: Miami, Pittsburgh, Oakland, Washington
Most lopsided bets based on percentage of tickets: Baltimore, New England, Rams
Most lopsided bets based on percentage of money: Arizona, Baltimore, LA Rams
Biggest line moves from opener: Baltimore P to -3, Tennessee -3.5 to -5.5, Detroit from +1.5 to -1
Show odds
MNF
Redskins vs. Saints
- Saints No. 4 over team at +12.9, though over 2-2
- Redskins No. 1 under teams -10 points per game, though already had bye, so only three games
- Go against bad defenses off win 129-72 (Washington)
- Better net yards per play but inferior record, go with team with worse record is 738-655 (Washington)
