Frankly the formula to winning in sports is educated handicapping and money management. Even if somebody can win consistently, if one’s betting amount is haphazard one can lose a lot of money.
Bookmakers drive around in new Porsche’s not just because most of their clients grapple to hit 45% of their plays, but also because a preponderance of gamblers use the “panic” or “greed” methods when deciding how much to wager.
Any sports investor who increases his bets when he is down to try to win it back in one bet is destined to live in a box by the river. That is why Monday Night Football is the greatest thing to ever happen to a bookie. The bookie’s second best friend is the Sunday night game. Both are considered “bail out games” by the uneducated risk taker.
But even worse is the player for stakes who presses his luck during a hot streak and increases his bets. I have seen so many suckers go 15-5 for example and still squander capital.
The quandary is a $50 bettor for example when he is hot has the attitude, “Could you imagine how much I would have made if I bet $200 a game?” Even worse is the guy who goes 5-0 and realizes how much he could have made if he put money on a parlay. Yes 20/20 handicapping is great but I do not know a sportsbook that takes those types of antes.
Any bookmaker will tell you with 90% of gamblers, the more they win one week, the more the bookie looks forward to the gamester’s phone call the next week. Too many gamblers always find a way to give the money back and then some.
Well to steal an old cliché, gambling is not a sprint it is a marathon. Even I have had nightmare days, but because of money management the Wise Guys and I have no idea what a losing month or season is.
The recipe is to stake the same amount based purely on how much one likes a game, not how much one is up or down in the short run. However there are actually two adaptations of acceptable money management.
One is the straight betting, which is the most straightforward and the other is the Kelly System, which the units are equal but always relative to the bankroll.
Straight betting is a fundamental as it gets. The way to divvy the units can be different as long as it is constant, but the key is not change the rating system or units per play.
Personally I only bet plays in two different units. Wise Guy plays are my top play and majors are .75 units of a Wise Guy play.
So as it applies to a $100 player, he would bet $100 on my Wise Guy plays and of course, $75 on my majors. Much like putting the same amount every month into the stock market, this method must be bet religiously.
However the Kelly System is similar but is based on a set percentage of one’s bankroll, not a set amount. Generally the maximum bet is 1/20 of the total bankroll.
Using the same one unit and .75 unit rating procedure, if one’s bankroll starts out with a $2,000 bankroll, Wise Guy plays would be $100 (5% of 2,000) and a major would be $75 (3.75% of (2,000).
Let’s say the gambler goes on a huge losing streak and his bankroll drops to $1,325. Then a Wise Guy play is still 5% of his bankroll, but is it $66.25, while a major is still 3.75% at $49.69.
When his bankroll is increased to $3,330 for example a Wise Guy play increases to $166.50, while a major would be $124.88.
Accurate handicapping and great information is the heart and soul of sports gambling. But without a responsible and thus concordant money management modus operandi it will all go for naught.