The NY Mets are at the Atlanta Braves on ESPN. Jacob deGrom takes the bump for New York, with Mike Soroka starting for the home team.
New York is 3-7 this season for -5.5 units, while Atlanta is 7-3, including 5-0 at home. Despite all this, the Mets are -125 on the road with a total of 8 at Bovada. The public likes the home underdog with 59 percent of bets on Atlanta and 81 percent of the money. A whopping 81 percent of tickets are on the under, yet 77 percent of cash on the over, indicating very sharp money on a high-scoring game.
When a team is laying at least 115 on road, despite a winning percentage deficit of at least .300, going with the chalk is 82-36 for +34 units and 20.5 ROI. When a team is undefeated at home with at least five home wins, yet home underdogs, the road team is a perfect 5-0 all-time, with three of the wins by at least three runs. Both of these supersystems favor the Mets.
NY has an OBP of .343 last 10 games, compared to .316 for Atlanta. New York has gone under 6-0 with deGrom after scoring two or fewer runs previous game. Atlanta has won seven straight games on grass. New York has gone under 8-1 as road chalk. The Braves are 7-1 at home in series.
The teams and pitchers met on Opening Day, with NY winning 1-0. Hence deGrom enters with a 1.64 ER, Soroka 1.59. deGrom is 7-7 with a 1.90 ERA in 22 career starts to the Bravos, with Soroka 4-0 with a 2.27 ERA in six starts to the Metropolitans.
Underachieving slugger Yoenis Cespedes has left the Mets and is not expected to return.
Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. He has the AL Runline Game of the Month as the first named play since early March. Named plays have a 7.2 percent ROI all-time on JDP. Two NBA and five MLB. The first winner is 6:30 ET. Get the picks now
The pro gambler sanctioned Super Bowl 53 betting sneak peek is here. The Los Angeles Rams encounter the New England Patriots. New England is -2.5 at Bovada and most sportsbooks, though up to -115 juice at some houses. The total ranges from 56.5 to 57. Betonline, home of the opening line debuted the odds at Rams -1 and 58.5.
A stunning 82 percent of bets and 84 in percentages terms of money handled is on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the Patriots. Contrarian betting is weighted less than in previous years and decades. Still, most sharp gamblers favor being on the reverse side of public money. Sharps worship the opportunities to weaponize oddsmakers wisdom against them. However, said systems of indicators clash in Rams-Patriots. Defying line moves that have naught to do with injury newsflashes or anything directly to do with the game itself, is a remunerative approach. The Patriots are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS measured against the Rams superior 15-3 and 9-7 back wallet mark. When the team with the worse straight up mark is a playoff favorite, said teams historically are a good bet.
Damn near every football master agrees that based purely on talent, the oddsmakers were correct. The Rams are the leading squad. But any rational intangible scrutiny, namely that Patriots have been there and won that, would support New England. Thus, the power ratings and matchups were outbalanced by the allure of an impressive playoff resume.
With such a substantial percentage of bets on New England, will it possibly get to -3? That is unlikely, though -2.5 and -130 may become commonplace. Sharps who already locked in on New England at a pick or +1 will prey on the Rams at +3, creating the ideal Bet Middler venture.
Both teams are well above normal offensively and below standard defensively. The Pats earn .3 more yards per play than their opponent allows typically compared to the Rams at .7 more. But on defense, New England will enable teams to exceed their regular yards per play by .2, Los Angeles by .3. Defensively the teams grade among the 12 worst in the NFL based on yards per play allowed. New England is 20th and LA 25th.
The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He releases winners daily and is widely accepted as the top sports handicapper of all-time.
Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.