Advanced News and Notes in College Hoops, Wed-Sat

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Wednesday, February
22, 2006

 

Ole Miss-Kentucky

Press Notes

Ole Miss hits the road for the second consecutive game,
traveling to Kentucky to take on
the Wildcats. Kentucky sits third
in the SEC Eastern Division standings and has taken its last two games,
including Saturday’s 79-66 road win at South Carolina.
Tubby Smith’s Wildcats have a trio of sophomores leading the team in scoring
and currently coming off the bench. After being suspended for the entire
non-conference slate, forward Randolph Morris is posting 12.8 points and 5.8
rebounds since rejoining the squad and leads the SEC in field goal percentage
in league play (.611).

Utah-UNLV

Press Notes

The Runnin’ Utes (12-12, 5-8 MWC) open a two-game road swing against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (14-10, 8-4 MWC).  Utah,
tied for sixth place in the Mountain West Conference, dropped a pair of games
at home last week. The Utes pushed Colorado
State
to overtime before falling
69-61 on Wednesday night, then lost to Air Force 52-51
on Saturday night. Utah is 3-6 on
opponents’ home courts overall this season and 2-4 in Mountain West Conference
play. Over the last seven games, Utah
has held its opponents to an average of 59.7 points per game on 39.6 percent
shooting from the field and 33.3 percent from three-point range. The Utes have
owned a 34.7 to 28.1 edge in rebounds per game, outworking all seven teams on
the glass.  Utah
is playing one redshirt freshman and four other newcomers. Through 24 games,
56.9 percent of the Utes’ points, 47.2 percent of their rebounds, 51.9 percent
of their assists, and 54.1 percent of their minutes played have come from the
first-year players. UNLV is 14-10 overall and tied
for third place in the Mountain West Conference with an 8-4 record. The Rebels
are 10-4 at home overall this season and 4-2 in conference games. The Runnin’ Rebels ended a two-game losing steak with an 80-72
win at Colorado State
last Saturday afternoon. Before then, UNLV lost at BYU (75-72) on Feb. 11 and to San Diego State at home
(81-70) on Feb. 16.

TCU-Colorado
State

Press Notes

Colorado State
finishes out a two-game homestand Wednesday night
against the TCU Horned Frogs. The Rams suffered an
80-72 setback Saturday night against UNLV and are now
13-12 on the year overall. The Horned Frogs bring a 5-21 record into Moby Arena
on Wednesday with their only conference victory (1-11) coming at the Rams’
expense, 85-72 in Fort Worth on Jan. 21. Colorado
State
holds an all-time record of
414-164 (.716) in Moby Arena. The Rams hold an 9-33
record in the month of February during Dale Layer’s tenure as head coach. The
Rams have a 4-22 record in February in their last three-plus seasons. CSU snapped a 20-game league road losing streak with last
Wednesday’s win over
Utah in Salt
Lake City
. After
holding opponents to a .379 field goal percentage in non-conference games, CSU
has allowed league opponents to shoot at a .493 clip after 12 MWC games. MWC foes are scoring
77.7 points per game on the Rams compared to a 67.0
points per game average in non-conference play.

Ohio State-Michigan

Press Notes

Michigan State
owns the all-time series lead with a record of 59-46 vs. the Buckeyes. Ohio
State
is 13-38 in games played in East
Lansing
. The Buckeyes are 32-21 in games played in Columbus.

Tennessee-Florida

Press Notes

Tennessee
will hit the road for the fourth time in its last five games. The Florida
game will mark the fourth consecutive road game the Vols
have played that has been sold out. UT also played before sold out arenas at Kentucky,
Georgia and Alabama.
UT saw its eight-game SEC winning streak come to an end with a 79-92 loss at Alabama
Saturday. Halftime bettors note that UT has rallied to overcome deficits of
nine points or more four times. South Carolina (1/8/06) led by as many as 15
points in the second half before the Vols came back
to win 76-69 in Columbia. The Vols have recorded at
least 10 steals in 15 of their 23 games. Tennessee
is getting an average of 22.6 points per game from its bench. The Vols’ bench has contributed 520 points in 23 games this
season. UT has recorded 100 more steals than its opponents. The Vols have 241 steals compared to just 141 by their
opponents.

Maryland-Florida State

Press Notes

Maryland
(16-9, 6-6 ACC) looks for its seventh conference win when it travels to Tallahassee
to take on the upstart Florida State Seminoles Wednesday. Florida
State
(16-7, 6-6 ACC) enters the
game having won three of its last four contests following a 76-62 win over Virginia
Saturday in Tallahassee. Maryland
leads the all-time series with FSU, 23-7, dating back to the first meeting in
1992. The Terps have won two straight over the
Seminoles and 17 of the last 19 contests. Maryland
is 9-4 against the ‘Noles in Tallahassee
and has won six of the last seven meetings at FSU.

Rutgers-Georgetown

Press Notes

Georgetown put together its second seven-game winning
streak of the season from Jan. 17-Feb. 9, but the Hoyas
then hit a rough stretch of their schedule and suffered consecutive losses to
then-No. 9 West
Virginia
, Marquette and
then-No.
4 Villanova.The Hoyas
last three games aren’t nearly as tough, as they’ll face Rutgers
(15-11, 5-8) and Syracuse at home,
followed by South Florida on the road. With victories
over No. 1 Duke and No. 9 Pittsburgh this season, one or two more wins could be
enough to get the Hoyas into the NCAAs.
After losing six of seven games over a three-week stretch, Rutgers
has won two of its last three. The Scarlet Knights are coming off a 65-51
victory over South Florida on Saturday. On Saturday, Douby sparked a 17-4 run that put Rutgers
ahead 35-21 at halftime. The Scarlet Knights went on to deal South
Florida
its school-record 14th consecutive loss. The Scarlet Knights will face a much tougher test against Georgetown, having dropped five of the last six meetings.

Fordham-St. Joseph’s

Press Notes

The Saint Joseph’s
men’s basketball team will play back-to-back games at Alumni Memorial Fieldhouse for the first time this season, beginning with
Wednesday’s (Feb. 22) game with Fordham. The Hawks are 2-3 this season in the Fieldhouse and will be looking to avoid a sub-.500 record
on their homecourt, something which hasn’t happened since 1997-98. Entering
this season, the Hawks owned a 30-2 record in the building since 2002-03, and
that record is now 32-5.

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Thursday, February
23, 2006

 

Utah State-Boise

Press Notes

Utah State
has won 14 of its last 17 games after starting the year with a 4-3 record.  Over the last seven years, Utah
State
is 40-19 (.678) on the road
in league play and 41-26 (.612) all-time on the road under head coach Stew
Morrill (separated at birth from world class handicapper the Animal) in
conference games. USU’s overall road record under
Morrill is 54-39 (.581).  Utah State is
92-24 (.793) in league games over the last seven years and it has won 40 of its
last 50 conference games dating back to the 2002-03 season. Utah
State
is 42-15 (.737) in the month
of February under Morrill, which includes a 19-12 (.613) road record. Utah
State
leads the nation in
three-point field goal percentage (.431) and ranks second in the country in
overall field goal percentage (.510). USU is also
second in the nation in assists per game (18.46). Utah State is 18-6 on the season and in third-place in the Western
Athletic Conference with an 8-4 league record following its 80-42 win at
Idaho and its 66-63 non-conference win against Northwestern State last weekend. Utah State and Boise State will be meeting for the 23rd time this week
with the Aggies owning a 17-5 all-time record against
the Broncos, which includes a 4-5 road record.
Boise State is 13-12 on the year and in seventh-place in the Western
Athletic Conference with a 5-8 league record. The Broncos snapped a three-game
losing streak by defeating Cal State Northridge 82-71 at home in its last game.
Boise State is 9-4 at home this year.

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Saturday, February 25,
2006

 

UTEP-Memphis

Press Notes

This matchup is to decide first place in Conference USA.
Off to the best start in school history, the fourth-ranked Tigers (24-2, 10-0)
enter this contest with 13 consecutive wins. The Miners (17-6, 9-1) have won
five straight and 10 of 11, staying within one game of Memphis
for the conference lead. If UTEP pulls off the upset,
it will be tied with the Tigers for the league’s best record but will have won
the only meeting of the season between the schools. The Miners have allowed the
fewest points per game in the conference at 58.5 and are second in field-goal
percentage defense at 39.6 percent. The Miners have held 20 of their 23
opponents below 70 points, going 16-4 in those games.

Memphis,
meanwhile, has scored less than 70 points just twice this season, losing 70-67
to top-ranked Duke on Nov. 25 and 69-58 to then-No. 15 ranked Texas
on Jan. 2.

The Tigers lead C-USA in scoring (84 points per game),
average margin of victory (16.6 ppg) and field-goal percentage (46.0). The
Miners have not played a ranked team this season and are just 31-71 all time
against Top 25 opponents. They haven’t faced a team ranked as high as Memphis
since a 62-56 loss to then-No. 3 Utah
on Jan. 29, 1998.

Memphis is 3-0
at home and 4-1 overall in the all-time series, with the lone defeat coming on Dec. 18, 1971. The teams haven’t met
since a 90-65 Tigers win on March 20,
2001
, in the second round of the NIT.

Nevada-Utah State

Press Notes

Utah State
is 5-20 over the last 15 years versus ranked opponents, defeating the University
of Utah
four times and Pacific
once. All-time, Utah State
is 9-50 versus ranked opponents. The last time Utah State played a ranked team
was on Mar. 17, 2005 when it lost to then ninth-ranked Arizona 66-53 in the
first round of the 2005 NCAA Tournament in Boise, Idaho. The last time Utah
State
played a ranked team in Logan
was on Feb. 12, 2005 when
it lost to then 24th-ranked Pacific 64-63. Under Morrill, USU is 2-7 versus top-25 opponents.

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Tuesday News and Notes

Tuesday, February 21,
2006

 

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Notre Dame-Connecticut

Draft Express

After losing heartbreaking game after heartbreaking game,
Notre Dame has won three straight including their most recent against a pretty
good Seton Hall team.

Virginia-Boston College

Press Notes

Virginia
enters tonight’s Atlantic Coast Conference game with a 13-10 overall record and
a 6-6 mark in the ACC. The Cavaliers are coming off a 76-62 loss to Florida
State
(Feb. 18) in Tallahassee,
Fla. Boston
College
stands at 21-5 overall and
8-4 in the ACC this season. The Eagle have won five
consecutive games and 10 of their last 11. U-Hall is Kind to Cavaliers. UVa is 10-2 at
home this season, including 5-1 in the ACC, but only 2-8 in away games (1-5 in
the ACC).
Virginia has won its last five home games and lost
its last four away games.

Kent-Bowling Green

Press Notes

The BGSU men’s basketball team
begins a stretch that will see them play five games in 13 days. The Falcons
have won the last two meetings and made 34 of 35 free throws in their 79-74 win
at Kent State
earlier this season. BGSU has won three of the last
four meetings in Kent,
but the Golden Flashes have triumphed on each of their last four trips to Bowling
Green
. Kent State
did not play in Anderson Arena last season. BGSU is
looking for its first series sweep of Kent
State
since the 1996-97 season.

Illinois-Michigan

Press Notes

Illinois has
won 11 in a row against the Wolverines, and 14 of the last 15. Michigan
is the only team to eclipse the 70-point marker against the Illini
this season. Illinois defeated
the Wolverines 79-74 on Jan. 14 at the Assembly Hall. Illinois owns a record of
59-6 since the beginning of last season. Illinois
has won 61 of its last 66 games during the regular season.  Illinois
is 92-4 (.958) at the Assembly Hall over the last six-and-a-half seasons, the
best home mark in the nation over this time period.

Baylor-Kansas

Wichita Eagle

Baylor has lost 21 consecutive games to ranked opponents.

NBA

Timberwolves-Wizards

Scorephone.com

The Washington Wizards try to put the brakes on a two-game
losing streak. Washington is 18-9
in its arena this season. The Timberwolves, who will
start a two-game homestand against Denver
on Friday, are 8-17 away from home this season. Minnesota
defeated the Wizards earlier in the season and has won eight of nine and nine
of the last 11 meetings. The Timberwolves, though,
have dropped six of nine in Washington.

Hawks-Pistons

Detroit News

The Pistons return from the All-Star break with the best
record in the NBA at 42-9. The Hawks are just 16-34, but have won five of their
last eight games, including a 99-98 victory over the Pistons in Atlanta
on Feb. 7.

 

 

 

 

Tuesday and Wednesday Advanced News and Notes

Tuesday, February 21,
2006

 

Virginia-Boston College

Press Notes

Virginia
enters tonight’s Atlantic Coast Conference game with a 13-10 overall record and
a 6-6 mark in the ACC. The Cavaliers are coming off a 76-62 loss to Florida
State
(Feb. 18) in Tallahassee,
Fla. Boston
College
stands at 21-5 overall and
8-4 in the ACC this season. The Eagle have won five
consecutive games and 10 of their last 11. U-Hall is Kind to Cavaliers. UVa is 10-2 at
home this season, including 5-1 in the ACC, but only 2-8 in away games (1-5 in
the ACC).
Virginia has won its last five home games and lost
its last four away games.

Kent-Bowling Green

Press Notes

The BGSU men’s basketball team
begins a stretch that will see them play five games in 13 days. The Falcons
have won the last two meetings and made 34 of 35 free throws in their 79-74 win
at Kent State
earlier this season. BGSU has won three of the last
four meetings in Kent,
but the Golden Flashes have triumphed on each of their last four trips to Bowling
Green
. Kent State
did not play in Anderson Arena last season. BGSU is
looking for its first series sweep of Kent
State
since the 1996-97 season.

Illinois-Michigan

Press Notes

Illinois has
won 11 in a row against the Wolverines, and 14 of the last 15. Michigan
is the only team to eclipse the 70-point marker against the Illini
this season. Illinois defeated
the Wolverines 79-74 on Jan. 14 at the Assembly Hall. • Illinois
owns a record of 59-6 since the beginning of last season. Illinois
has won 61 of its last 66 games during the regular season.  Illinois
is 92-4 (.958) at the Assembly Hall over the last six-and-a-half seasons, the
best home mark in the nation over this time period.

 

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Wednesday, February
22, 2006

 

Ole Miss-Kentucky

Press Notes

Ole Miss hits the road for the second consecutive game,
traveling to Kentucky to take on
the Wildcats. Kentucky sits third
in the SEC Eastern Division standings and has taken its last two games,
including Saturday’s 79-66 road win at South Carolina.
Tubby Smith’s Wildcats have a trio of sophomores leading the team in scoring
and currently coming off the bench. After being suspended for the entire
non-conference slate, forward Randolph Morris is posting 12.8 points and 5.8
rebounds since rejoining the squad and leads the SEC in field goal percentage
in league play (.611).

Utah-UNLV

Press Notes

The Runnin’ Utes (12-12, 5-8 MWC) open a two-game road swing against the UNLV Runnin’ Rebels (14-10, 8-4 MWC).  Utah,
tied for sixth place in the Mountain West Conference, dropped a pair of games
at home last week. The Utes pushed Colorado
State
to overtime before falling
69-61 on Wednesday night, then lost to Air Force 52-51
on Saturday night. Utah is 3-6 on
opponents’ home courts overall this season and 2-4 in Mountain West Conference
play. Over the last seven games, Utah
has held its opponents to an average of 59.7 points per game on 39.6 percent
shooting from the field and 33.3 percent from three-point range. The Utes have
owned a 34.7 to 28.1 edge in rebounds per game, outworking all seven teams on
the glass.  Utah
is playing one redshirt freshman and four other newcomers. Through 24 games,
56.9 percent of the Utes’ points, 47.2 percent of their rebounds, 51.9 percent
of their assists, and 54.1 percent of their minutes played have come from the
first-year players. UNLV is 14-10 overall and tied
for third place in the Mountain West Conference with an 8-4 record. The Rebels
are 10-4 at home overall this season and 4-2 in conference games. The Runnin’ Rebels ended a two-game losing steak with an 80-72
win at Colorado State
last Saturday afternoon. Before then, UNLV lost at BYU (75-72) on Feb. 11 and to San Diego State at home
(81-70) on Feb. 16.

TCU-Colorado
State

Press Notes

Colorado State
finishes out a two-game homestand Wednesday night
against the TCU Horned Frogs. The Rams suffered an
80-72 setback Saturday night against UNLV and are now
13-12 on the year overall. The Horned Frogs bring a 5-21 record into Moby Arena
on Wednesday with their only conference victory (1-11) coming at the Rams’
expense, 85-72 in Fort Worth on Jan. 21. Colorado
State
holds an all-time record of
414-164 (.716) in Moby Arena. The Rams hold an 9-33
record in the month of February during Dale Layer’s tenure as head coach. The
Rams have a 4-22 record in February in their last three-plus seasons. CSU snapped a 20-game league road losing streak with last
Wednesday’s win over
Utah in Salt
Lake City
. After
holding opponents to a .379 field goal percentage in non-conference games, CSU
has allowed league opponents to shoot at a .493 clip after 12 MWC games. MWC foes are scoring
77.7 points per game on the Rams compared to a 67.0
points per game average in non-conference play.

Ohio State-Michigan

Press Notes

Michigan State
owns the all-time series lead with a record of 59-46 vs. the Buckeyes. Ohio
State
is 13-38 in games played in East
Lansing
. The Buckeyes are 32-21 in games played in Columbus.

Tennessee-Florida

Press Notes

Tennessee
will hit the road for the fourth time in its last five games. The Florida
game will mark the fourth consecutive road game the Vols
have played that has been sold out. UT also played before sold out arenas at Kentucky,
Georgia and Alabama.
UT saw its eight-game SEC winning streak come to an end with a 79-92 loss at Alabama
Saturday. Halftime bettors note that UT has rallied to overcome deficits of
nine points or more four times. South Carolina (1/8/06) led by as many as 15
points in the second half before the Vols came back
to win 76-69 in Columbia. The Vols have recorded at
least 10 steals in 15 of their 23 games. Tennessee
is getting an average of 22.6 points per game from its bench. The Vols’ bench has contributed 520 points in 23 games this
season. UT has recorded 100 more steals than its opponents. The Vols have 241 steals compared to just 141 by their
opponents.

 

 

 

 

 

Monday Godspicks

Monday, February 20,
2006

MORNING STEAM IN: We have a total of three winners
including the Big East
Game of the Month on ESPN.
America’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com  finished off last week going .500 or better
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CBB

IDAHO +17’ Nevada

Idaho is in
a saving face mode as evidence by the fact they have covered 3-of-5 even though
they lost four of those games. Even keeping it competitive will be a huge
victory for them.  Their previous game
was total embarrassment to Nevada
and it’s a ridiculous number to lay in a conference road game.

With traditional power Utah
State
being Nevada’s
next game, we look for them to be happy to escape.

Monday News and Notes Up

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Monday, February 20,
2006

 

MORNING STEAM IN: We have a total of three winners
including the Big East
Game of the Month on ESPN.
America’s greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com  finished off last week going .500 or better
6-of-7 days and this year we’ve begun the “burning the midnight oil” even
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CBB

Nevada-Idaho

Press Notes

Nevada has
won the last two meetings between the two teams, including a 70-44 victory on
Jan. 12, 2006 in Reno.Coming off an 88-61 victory
over Mid-American Conference leader Akron Friday night in the BracketBusters presented by eBay, the Nevada Wolf Pack
(20-5 overall, 9-3 WAC) returns to Western Athletic
Conference play on Monday afternoon, traveling to Moscow, Idaho, to take on the
Idaho Vandals (4-19, 1-10). The Wolf Pack brings a seven-game winning streak
into Monday’s game with the Vandals, the team’s longest winning streak of the
year and the longest active streak in the conference. With six straight league
wins, Nevada has moved into sole
possession of first place in the Western Athletic Conference standings with two
weeks to go in the regular season. Monday is the first of two straight road
games for the Wolf Pack, which has turned in an 8-3 road record and has won its
last three WAC contests away from home. Following
Monday’s contest with the Vandals, Nevada
heads to Logan, Utah,
to take on Utah State
on Saturday, Feb. 25.  Idaho
brings a 4-19 overall record into Monday afternoon’s contest, dropping its last
three games and 14 of its last 15, including a 79-69 non-conference loss at Montana
State
on Saturday.

Portland-Loyola Marymount

Press Notes

Senior Day will bring the end of the home schedule for the
Loyola Marymount men’s basketball team when they host
the Univesity of Portland on Monday, Feb. 20 at 7:05 p.m. Four seniors will make their final
home appearance as Lions in a game that has big implications in the West Coast
Conference. The Lions (11-14, 8-3) will look to get back on track after an
emotional, tough setback to No. 5 Gonzaga Saturday. Portland
(9-16, 3-8) comes in after an impressive win over the Waves on Saturday. Both
teams are looking for a big win to make headway in the WCC
standings. The Lions need one more win to secure second place and a bye all the
way to the WCC tournament semifinals while Portland
hopes to make a run and climb into a first round bye. ended the Lions
three-game winning streak overall and six-game winning streak at home on
Saturday with a 79-70 win in which the Zags needed 44
points from Adam Morrison to come from behind for the win. Despite
the steback, the Lions to 8-3 in West Coast
Conference play and 11-14 overall.

Gonzaga-Pepperdine

Press Notes

Gonzaga wrapped up no worse than a share of its sixth
straight West Coast Conference title on Saturday with the 79-70 win at Loyola Marymount. A win over Pepperdine
on Monday would assure the Bulldogs the outright crown. The Bulldogs are 11-0
in the WCC, LMU 8-3, but
the season sweep of the Lions assures Gonzaga the No. 1 seed heading into the WCC Tournament on the Gonzaga campus. Gonzaga is also
assured a spot in the semifinals on Sunday, March 5.

Oklahoma-Texas Tech

Scout.com

The Red Raiders come into Monday night’s showdown on a
two-game winning streak, while the Sooners have won eight of their last 10. In
the first meeting between the two teams this season, Oklahoma
beat the Red Raiders 60-48 on January 21 in Norman.
The Red Raiders come into the game ninth in the Big 12 in scoring offense
(68.7) and eighth in scoring defense (67.5). The Sooners are seventh in scoring
offense (69.6) and tied for third with A&M in scoring defense (61.7). One
potential mismatch could come on the boards, where the Sooners rank second in
the league in rebounding margin (+10.9), whereas the Red Raiders check in at 10th
(-3.6). Oklahoma leads the
all-time series 23-15. Kelvin Sampson is 6-3 against Tech in Lubbock
and 14-8 overall.

St. Mary’s-San Diego

Sign On San Diego

Saint Mary’s has won three in a row and five of six, with
the most recent victory coming Saturday, 89-85, in a nonconference
match with Cal Poly. All-WCC forward Daniel Kickert sat out the Cal Poly game serving a one-game
suspension for fighting in the Gaels’ overtime victory at Santa
Clara
a week ago but will be back in the lineup
tonight. Forwards Brett Collins and Diamon Simpson
provide good support for Kickert. The Gaels are 4-6
on the road overall and 3-3 in WCC play. USD takes a 9-3 home record into its final appearance of
the season at the JCP. This also is the final home
game for USD fifth-year seniors Nick Lewis, who has
taken over the No. 4 position on the school’s career scoring list with 1,344
points, and Corey Belser.

Santa Clara-San Francisco

San Francisco Chronicle

It’s hard to tell which team has had a more difficult time
leading to tonight’s game between Santa Clara
and USF. The Broncos are coming off a taxing trip to Honolulu
where they lost to Hawaii 67-57
on Saturday. Now they must regroup, turn around and be ready for the 7 p.m. tip-off at Memorial Gym. And for the
Dons, it has been a case of waiting a week to play again because of a quirk in
the schedule, risking losing any momentum created by last Monday’s 87-71 win
over San Diego in one of their best
performances of the season. With only three regular-season games remaining,
tonight’s game has significant consequences for the West Coast Conference
tournament, which begins on the men’s side March 3 at Gonzaga under a format in
which teams finishing in the upper half of the standings receive early-round
byes (first- and second-place teams get byes in the first two rounds, and
third- and fourth-place teams get a first-round bye).

Santa Clara
(9-14, 2-9, WCC last place) will have to play in the
first round, but the Dons (10-14, 6-5, tied for third) are very much in the
hunt for a bye.

 


 

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 2

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God’s Tid-Bets Vol. 2

Joe Duffy (OffshoreInsiders.com)

Here is our latest in a series: a Godgepodge of thoughts on sports gambling strategy.

North Carolina Demonstrates What We’ve Said

We so often talk about how gamblers use inductive thinking rather than deductive.  We are tired of hearing about handicapping guard play first and foremost.  North Carolina won the National Championship because of a dominating inside game.  Many teams have great guard play but few teams have a dominant paint presence. Vermont was this year’s small college darling because of Taylor Coppenrath the 6-foot-9 forward.

Sure you can win without dominant big men because there is not a plethora of such out there.  But the biggest disappointments every year also happen to be guard oriented teams.

From Bill Walton and Lou Alcindor to Danny Manning to Scott May and Larry Bird, dominant big men are the X-factor in college hoops.

Outlaw Lines

We often get questions about our outlaw line, which is a valuable handicapping tool.  We have a system that combines the Pinnacle, Olympic and Stardust opening lines, but is weighed based on which comes in first.
It is very important to draw the distinction between steam moves and the opening line when evaluating which casinos are sharpest.

Steam moves are now worthless out of Vegas because of low limits and limited sharp action.  However we still find the actual opening line from the Stardust very sharp.  So “live” lines from the Strip have no value, but the actual opening line does.  This is especially true in college basketball as the initial Vegas line is sharp.

Time Supersedes Number of Games

In both college basketball and the NBA, handicappers disproportionately reflect on recent games giving too little weight to overall performance to date.  It’s true to a lesser extent in football, but true nonetheless. College football and baseball is where we most amalgamate recent occurrence into winning.  Baseball it’s because over the endless season the peaks are valleys have a much longer shelf life, while our research and experience proves the most dramatic momentum swings and adjustments occur on the college gridiron. Depth is more of a factor and the surprises and disappointments are more pronounced.

That being said, when reasoning recent performance most of the public gambling sites go X-number of games back rather than what we’ve found to be the superior parameter, that being days back. For example going back five games in the NBA could be seven days for one team and perhaps 11 for the other.  Looking at a pitcher’s last three starts is not always comparing apples to apples if one guy is the No. 1 starter in a four man rotation and the other guy is the fifth guy in a rotation that often skips the fifth starter.  If for example because of injury one guy skipped a start or two, simply looking at the last three or five starts can be very deceptive.

In the NBA, we find recent performance is better defined by 10 days rather than five games. Baseball we go back seven days for teams and 30 days for pitchers.

Baseball stats

One of the articles that you the readers thanked us for the most as being extremely helpful was when we wrote about WHIP versus ERA in handicapping. WHIP (walks and hits per innings pitched) is too often ignored and balanced with ERA they each test the statistical reliability of the other.

Analogous is handicapping offense.  We have always said that baseball’s real Triple Crown would be on base percentage, slugging percentage and runs produced. When it comes to handicapping offense, there is no question that is handicapping’s Triple Crown.  Steve Mann a long-time baseball statistical guru always asserted that (on base percentage)* (slugging percentage) was the ultimate way to gauge offensive production.  We consider that Gospel from a handicapping standpoint.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at OffshoreInsiders.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at OffshoreInsiders.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss. We don’t have the marketing budget of Jim Feist or Wayne Root and his Winning Edge. We make up for it with hard work and winning.

 

Taylor Coppenrath

Discipline in Betting

Don’t Scream Fire in a Crowded Sportsbook

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Frankly as I type this I’m in the middle of a slump.  However history tells me by the time I finish
scribing this article and it makes publication, we will be in the midst of a
windfall.  The key for a quality
handicapper is to stay the course. My occupation is my addiction. As a result
the only time I give myself off is the all-star break in baseball. Off betting
that is. We use that time to write articles. Every now and then Christmas Eve
will have no action, so I go to Midnight Mass. The point is (you were
wondering) when we gamble more than 360 days a year, there are peaks and
valleys. 

With two-plus decades of experience, we know our peaks
greatly outnumber the valleys and thus cannot and will not panic during our
fleeting slumps even though each losing day seems like a month to us.  We don’t decrease the size or number of bets
nor do we increase during our more prevalent winning streaks. Heck I’ve seen
that screaming dude from Philly on CNBC, Jim Cramer talk about the highs and
lows he’s had on Wall Street.  But he’s
considered the mogul of stocks. 
Discipline no doubt is a major reason.

As the ole saying goes “It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon”.
No self-sustaining gambler lives and dies off of a few nights. Pressing one’s
luck, panicking, chasing, are among the deadly sins of gambling. 

One of the symptoms of a degenerate gambler is someone who
lives and dies by the game.  Not only is
there no such thing as a bailout game, but self-control ensures there should
ever be a need for one.

In the pre-Internet days I announced on the scorephones,
which at the time were the pre-eminent source for gambling information and also
where sports services salivated to advertise. 
Regrettably the owner of the company did sell advertising to the highest
bidder and inevitably every Monday Night Football promo for the 800 number scamdicappers involved the buzzword “bailout”.  They knew there were so many degenerate
gamblers in a state of panic from losing money in the two days previous and
were desperate to cancel it out on one game.

Lucky for the books and casinos, restraint is something
few gamblers have. 

Many money experts will advise smart investors to bet the
same amount each month   into their 401(k ).  It’s the same
principle in gambling. Don’t panic during losing streaks or press during
winning streaks. Stay the course.

 

We gamblers tend to be the most superstitious people in
the world.  It’s fine if it affects your
rooting and watching habits but should never cross the line of impinging your
handicapping.

Yes even we professionals have been there where every late
run seems to go against us.  I’ve sat in
front of the television waiting for the missed free throw by my team followed
by the meaningless wide open three-pointer by the bad guys at the buzzer for
the half-point cover.  When Lady Luck has
screwed us over the previous 72 hours, we see it coming again better than Nostradamus ever did.

While I won’t deny even those of us who make a living
picking winners are not immune from the snake bitten feeling of doom, we still
tow the line knowing with proper handicapping and willpower we win a lot more
than we lose.

Feeling bedeviled from a short-term string of last second
losses has had me chomping at the bit wanting to hedge a “so far, so good”
winning play on the half-time line. 
Rejection of the power of that nasty whore Lady Luck actually is easier
said than done for the short-sighted and sometimes even so for those who know
better.

Greed when placing bets can turn a 55 percent ATS winning
percentage into a “losing” record, quickly in fact.  Hysteria during stagnant periods can turn 45
percent into the bankroll equivalent 10 percent less. Often the biggest
difference between the wealthy and destitute gambler is not mere winning
percentage but the ability to use self-control during the downturns.

A lot of things go into making money gambling, with the
ability to pick winners far and away No. 1. Being a good line shopper increases
that. But more times than not, the degenerate gambler is not someone who always
loses, but somebody who can’t properly manage losing.

We honestly believe the exclusive daily and advanced news
and notes at the home page of www.godspicks.com
fills a huge void.  It’s always free and
is a necessary component for the do-it-yourself handicapper. The best premium
plays are also at Godspicks.com.

 

 

Sunday Godspicks

Sunday, February 18,
2006

 

We did go a game above .500 yesterday despite more late
snakebites.  Most importantly The Center
of the Handicapping Universe
Godspicks.com has two
Major plays for today
: UNC-Wake and Texas-OSU. Since Thanksgiving Day 2004, the demarcation point
from where our mastery of modern technology made the gap between us and the
rest of the industry insurmountable.

The ENTIRE card is just $17 at www.godspicks.com.  We now
take virtually every credit card, PayPal and eCheck.
  Click on the link at Godspicks.com for advanced news and notes, gaming
articles and more at the Joe Duffy Online blog.
 

CBB

USC +6’ UCLA

UCLA’s options at center are limited when starter Ryan Hollins is on the bench or has fouled out,
as was the case last week against Washington.

Freshman Ryan Wright is being brought along slowly, sophomore
Lorenzo Mata is still several weeks from attempting a comeback
from a broken leg, and senior Michael Fey is barely used by
Coach Ben Howland.

That leaves power forward Alfred Aboya,
a freshman still behind on the learning curve after missing the early part of
the season following arthroscopic surgery on his knees.
Now he’s being
asked to learn another position.

USC plays their final game ever in the Sports Arena and
would love nothing better than to close it out against a team that beat them by
20.  UCLA lacks depth, but USC does not
lack motivation.  We look for it to stay
close.

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