Don’t Scream Fire in a Crowded Sportsbook

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Frankly as I type this I’m in the middle of a slump.  However history tells me by the time I finish
scribing this article and it makes publication, we will be in the midst of a
windfall.  The key for a quality
handicapper is to stay the course. My occupation is my addiction. As a result
the only time I give myself off is the all-star break in baseball. Off betting
that is. We use that time to write articles. Every now and then Christmas Eve
will have no action, so I go to Midnight Mass. The point is (you were
wondering) when we gamble more than 360 days a year, there are peaks and
valleys. 

With two-plus decades of experience, we know our peaks
greatly outnumber the valleys and thus cannot and will not panic during our
fleeting slumps even though each losing day seems like a month to us.  We don’t decrease the size or number of bets
nor do we increase during our more prevalent winning streaks. Heck I’ve seen
that screaming dude from Philly on CNBC, Jim Cramer talk about the highs and
lows he’s had on Wall Street.  But he’s
considered the mogul of stocks. 
Discipline no doubt is a major reason.

As the ole saying goes “It’s not a sprint, it’s a marathon”.
No self-sustaining gambler lives and dies off of a few nights. Pressing one’s
luck, panicking, chasing, are among the deadly sins of gambling. 

One of the symptoms of a degenerate gambler is someone who
lives and dies by the game.  Not only is
there no such thing as a bailout game, but self-control ensures there should
ever be a need for one.

In the pre-Internet days I announced on the scorephones,
which at the time were the pre-eminent source for gambling information and also
where sports services salivated to advertise. 
Regrettably the owner of the company did sell advertising to the highest
bidder and inevitably every Monday Night Football promo for the 800 number scamdicappers involved the buzzword “bailout”.  They knew there were so many degenerate
gamblers in a state of panic from losing money in the two days previous and
were desperate to cancel it out on one game.

Lucky for the books and casinos, restraint is something
few gamblers have. 

Many money experts will advise smart investors to bet the
same amount each month   into their 401(k ).  It’s the same
principle in gambling. Don’t panic during losing streaks or press during
winning streaks. Stay the course.

 

We gamblers tend to be the most superstitious people in
the world.  It’s fine if it affects your
rooting and watching habits but should never cross the line of impinging your
handicapping.

Yes even we professionals have been there where every late
run seems to go against us.  I’ve sat in
front of the television waiting for the missed free throw by my team followed
by the meaningless wide open three-pointer by the bad guys at the buzzer for
the half-point cover.  When Lady Luck has
screwed us over the previous 72 hours, we see it coming again better than Nostradamus ever did.

While I won’t deny even those of us who make a living
picking winners are not immune from the snake bitten feeling of doom, we still
tow the line knowing with proper handicapping and willpower we win a lot more
than we lose.

Feeling bedeviled from a short-term string of last second
losses has had me chomping at the bit wanting to hedge a “so far, so good”
winning play on the half-time line. 
Rejection of the power of that nasty whore Lady Luck actually is easier
said than done for the short-sighted and sometimes even so for those who know
better.

Greed when placing bets can turn a 55 percent ATS winning
percentage into a “losing” record, quickly in fact.  Hysteria during stagnant periods can turn 45
percent into the bankroll equivalent 10 percent less. Often the biggest
difference between the wealthy and destitute gambler is not mere winning
percentage but the ability to use self-control during the downturns.

A lot of things go into making money gambling, with the
ability to pick winners far and away No. 1. Being a good line shopper increases
that. But more times than not, the degenerate gambler is not someone who always
loses, but somebody who can’t properly manage losing.

We honestly believe the exclusive daily and advanced news
and notes at the home page of www.godspicks.com
fills a huge void.  It’s always free and
is a necessary component for the do-it-yourself handicapper. The best premium
plays are also at Godspicks.com.