All posts by Joe Duffy

Super Bowl Betting Facts: Rams-Patriots

Looking for a Super Bowl betting story that hasn’t been written? Well, the PR staff for BetDSI has dug up a mountain of information that could help your narrative. 

Below, you will find odds to win next year’s Super Bowl, props on who the Rams and Patriots will play in Week 1 of next season and a wealth of interesting odds information pertaining to this year’s big game.

Biggest and craziest selection of Super Bowl 53 props from BetDSI

Super Bowl LIV Odds 
Los Angeles Rams +750
Kansas City Chiefs +800
New England Patriots +800
New Orleans Saints +1100
Los Angeles Chargers +1550
Pittsburgh Steelers +1600
Chicago Bears +1650
Indianapolis Colts +1650
Minnesota Vikings +1700
Philadelphia Eagles +1900
Green Bay Packers +2000
Dallas Cowboys +2150
Cleveland Browns +2150
Atlanta Falcons +2850
Baltimore Ravens +3300
Houston Texans +3750
Seattle Seahawks +3750
San Francisco 49ers +3750
Jacksonville Jaguars +4500
New York Giants +5500
Tampa Bay Buccaneers +6600
Carolina Panthers +6600
Tennessee Titans +6600
Denver Broncos +9000
New York Jets +9000
Buffalo Bills +10000
Cincinnati Bengals +10000
Arizona Cardinals +11000
Detroit Lions +11000
Oakland Raiders +11000
Washington Redskins +16500
Miami Dolphins +30000

https://youtu.be/DytXEDEpovE

Super Bowl 54 Props

Will the New England Patriots play in Super Bowl LIV?
Yes +350
No -500

Will the Los Angeles Rams play in Super Bowl LIV?
Yes +280
No -400

Which team will the Los Angeles Rams play in Week 1 of the 2019 regular season? (must win Super Bowl LIII for action)
Saints +150
Cowboys +250
Bears +400
Seattle +500
Field (Any other team) +1000

Which team will the New England Patriots play in Week 1 of the 2019 regular season? (must win Super Bowl LIII for action)
Chiefs +200
Steelers +300
Cowboys +300
Texans +500
Browns +800
Giants +1000
Field (Any other team) +1500

Super Bowl 53 Odds Facts

This matchup marks the second time in NFL history* the two preseason favorites meet in the Super Bowl. The first time was in 2004 when the Patriots (+600 second favorites) beat the Eagles (+500 favorites).
*Preseason Super Bowl date back to 1977

Preseason Super Bowl Odds:
New England Patriots +600
Los Angeles Rams +1000

Super Bowl Odds going into NFL Playoffs:
Los Angeles +450
New England +600

The Patriots have been preseason favorites to win the Super Bowl each of the last three seasons.

Since 2013, just one team (2016 Patriots) were favored at the start of the season to win the Super Bowl and won.

Only six of the last 38 preseason Super Bowl favorites (or co-favorites) went on to win the Super Bowl.

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Super Bowl LIII over/under opened at 57.5 points, which was the highest in Super Bowl history. The current total is 56, which places is third on the list.

Highest Totals in Super Bowl History:
Super Bowl LI – Atlanta vs. New England, 57 (Over)
Super Bowl XLIV – New Orleans vs. Indianapolis, 57 (Under)
Super Bowl LIII – Los Angeles vs. New England, 56 (opened at 57.5)
Super Bowl XLII – New York vs. New England, 55 (Under)
Super Bowl XXIX – San Francisco vs. San Diego, 53.5 (Over)
Super Bowl XIX – San Francisco vs. Miami, 53.5 (Over)
Super Bowl XLVI – New York vs. New England, 53 (Under)
Super Bowl XXXVI – St. Louis vs. New England, 53 (Under)

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Jared Goff is the youngest NFC quarterback to reach the Super Bowl. Here’s how 25-and-under QBs have fared both straight up and against the spread in Super Bowl history:

Youngest quarterbacks to play in the Super Bowl (SU/ATS):
Dan Marino: 23 years, 127 days (L/L)
Ben Roethlisberger: 23 years, 340 days (W/W)
David Woodley: 24 years, 97 days (L/L)
Jared Goff: 24 years, 112 days (?/?)
Tom Brady: 24 years, 184 days (W/W)

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Tom Brady is the oldest quarterback to play in a Super Bowl and would be the oldest to win (Peyton Manning).

This week’s matchup will mark the biggest age difference between quarterbacks in Super Bowl history. It is also the second-largest age gap between quarterbacks in NFL playoff history.

Largest age difference in NFL Playoffs:
18 years, 1 month: Tom Brady (41) vs. Patrick Mahomes (23)
17 years, 3 months: Tom Brady (41) vs. Jared Goff (24)
16 years, 2 months: Tom Brady (40) vs. Marcus Mariota (24)
15 years, 9 months: Drew Brees (40) vs. Jared Goff (24)

Brady is 2-0 SU and ATS in these games.

—————-

Sean McVay is the youngest head coach in Super Bowl history. However, this isn’t the first time a head coach on one team is younger than the starting quarterback on the other team. Mike Tomlin (36) beat Kurt Warner (38) when the Steelers defeated the Cardinals in Super Bowl XLIII.

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Since the Super Bowl in 2002, the Patriots have played against the Rams five times (including the Super Bowl). New England is 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS in those games.

Patriots vs. Rams History:
2/3/02 (Super Bowl): Patriots 20 – Rams 17 (NE +14)
11/7/04 (at St. Louis): Patriots 40 – Rams 22 (NE +2)
10/26/08 (at New England): Patriots 23 – Rams 16 (STL +9)
10/28/12 (at St. Louis): Patriots 45 – Rams 7 (NE -7)
12/4/16 (at New England): Patriots 26 – Rams 10 (NE -13)

—————-

Both Super Bowls played in Atlanta have gone under the closing total:

XXXIV: St. Louis 23 – Tennessee 16 (Push/Under)
XXVIII: Dallas 30 – Buffalo 13 (Favorite/Under)

The last four Super Bowls played in domes have gone over the closing total:

SB LII (PHL/NE in Minneapolis)
SB LI (ATL/NE in Houston)
SB XLIX (SEA/NE in Glendale)
SB XLVII (SF/BAL in New Orleans)

 

Anthony Davis’s Most Likely Destination Revealed By Betting Odds

With recent news indicating that Anthony Davis will not sign a contract extension with the Pelicans, BetDSI is offering props on the possibility of him being traded and which team will land the coveted All-Star. 

Odds are posted for if he’ll be dealt, which roster he’ll be on post-NBA trade deadline and which team he’ll play for next season.

Current odds at BetDSI

Will Anthony Davis be traded before the February 7 trade deadline (2019)

Yes +120

No -150

Anthony Davis team on February 8, 2019

New Orleans Pelicans -150

Los Angeles Lakers +150

Boston Celtics +200

New York Knicks +400

Philadelphia 76ers +500

Portland Trail Blazers +1000

Toronto Raptors +1500

Houston Rockets +1500

Los Angeles Clippers +2000

Brooklyn Nets +3000

Oklahoma City Thunder +3000

Field (Any Other Team) +500

Anthony Davis team on October 1, 2019

Boston Celtics +150

Los Angeles Lakers +200

New York Knicks +500

New Orleans Pelicans +750

Brooklyn Nets +1000

Philadelphia 76ers +1000

Portland Trail Blazers +1000

Los Angeles Clippers +1500

Houston Rockets +2000

Oklahoma City Thunder +3000

Toronto Raptors +3000

Field (Any Other Team) +500

Betting Unders Is Painfully Profitable

If the one were summing up the secret to my handicapping prowess succinctly, it would be two words: counterintuitive thinking. When the squares zig, the sharps zag. The public adores betting on overs and why not? As Scott Steehn, host of the Bank the Bet podcast on Winners and Whiners correctly stated, “Rooting for neither team to score is painful.”

Most importantly, it’s never under until it’s over—well the sporting event itself that is. In football, the final two minutes of a half or full contest can be savage to under bettors. The “prevent defense” is the bane of sharp gamblers. At any split-second of a low-scoring game, an 80-yard pass on a busted coverage or a pick six can be a calamity. 

On the hardwood, bombing and fouling at the end of a bet are poison, exacerbated by the NBA giving a team the ball at half-court after a timeout. In MLB it’s never over…I mean under until the last out. Four-run, two-out ninth inning rallies generate sharp pain to sharps.

Inarguably the essential fundamental principle of gambling is that the odds are not a prediction on the outcome of the match, but rather a prognostication on what line or total will get equal action on each side. With the public predilection towards overs, for reasons explained above, the oddsmakers will often inflate the totals. When this ensues, odds sharks exploit.

Most, but certainly far from all of the foremost totals’ formulas boast the under. Never willingly pay “phycological juice.” Pro gamblers refuse. Unchallenged is the certitude that bomb-and-foul, ten points in the final 15 seconds of NBA game are among the most excruciating losses. Nevertheless, bad beats don’t cost more in the wallet. Never stake cash based on the benchmark on what option is more comfortable to root for.

That having been said, at one point in my career, I overbalanced. I wagered roughly 90 percent of my totals’ bets on below the posted over/under number. Fortuitously, my computer software and advanced analytics are slant-free. Elaboration on that nugget is for a forthcoming essay.

The author Joe Duffy is a Grandmaster Sports Handicapper and CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He is widely accepted as the top professional sports handicapper in the history of North American sports.

Inside Betting Info in Today’s College Basketball Portfolio

Critical betting intel from select games from the clipboard of Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com.

JDP has seven winners in college basketball and two NBA. Our sports science labs continue to research and discover. Yes, we did unearth totals metrics that apply cross-sports. That is why our totals have exploded in number of releases and winning percentage.  Get the picks now

12PM ET—Iowa St at Ole Miss (ESPN)

  • Iowa State 73-72
  • Live line: ISU has struggled late in close games
  • Marial Shayock of Iowa State is 6-6 and athletic, really tough matchup for Ole Miss
  • Ole Miss G Breein Tyree with shoulder injury, GTD
    • 17 pts, 3.4 rebounds, 3 assists
  • Iowa State averages 78.2 points per game and Ole Miss allows 68.4 

1PM ET—Notre Dame at Virginia (CBS)

  • Virginia 68-55
  • Virginia 15-3 +5.5 compared to Irish 7-12 -1.5
  • Decent regression to mean for Irish, especially in conference play
  • Jeff Huff for Virginia is playing much better off the bench
    • 7-footer can pose serious matchup problems
  • Nate Laszewski of Irish may have gotten out of slump against Tech, but now versus brutal defense
  • Needs to come up big if Virginia double-teams John Mooney
  • Virginia faster pace this season

2PM ET—Kansas St vs. Texas A&M (ESPN)

  • Kansas City 65-61
  • Both Jay Jay Chandler and Wendell Mitchell are trending upward for A&M, for those who love guard play
  • Kansas State been streaky winning five straight, the first two by combined three points (off a two-game losing streak), but last three by double-digits

2PM ET—Marquette vs. Xavier (FS 1)

  • Marquette 73-71
  • Marquette among luckier teams this season, not as good as record
  • Quenton Goodin looking more sharp for Xavier and could return to starting line up after missing some games
  • His replacement Kyle Castlin is better for the under, great defensive rebounder for a G plays good defense
  • Goodin more PT, Castlin yes, good for OVER

4PM ET—West Virginia at Tennessee (ESPN)

  • Tennessee 86-69
  • WVU worst against the spread margin in nation at -5.8 at 6-12
  • Tennessee 9-7-1 +3.6
  • Sets up several regression to mean angles favorite WVU
  • Vols also big over team going over by an average of 7.7, though 10-7
    • Second fastest pace in nation

6PM ET—Kansas at Kentucky (ESPN)

  • Kentucky 73-69
  • Kentucky peaking covering three straight and typical of reloaded teams with John Calipari
    • Top 2 scorers are freshman
  • Without Udoka Azubuike Kansas has gotten smaller
  • Kentucky has four viable big men Reid Travis, PJ Washington, Nick Richards and EJ Montgomery
  • Major sports service Game of the Year from MasterLockLine at OffshoreInsiders.com

8PM ET—Syracuse at Virginia Tech (ESPN)

  • Virginia Tech 72-64
  • Virginia Tech will be rested, while Syracuse playing second game in three days
  • That being said, home teams with at least four days rest, hosting a team playing 2-in-3 days are not profitable at all at 378-398!
  • Tech third weakest strength of schedule
    • Conference wins against teams 5-15 in ACC
    • Destroyed on road by North Carolina and Virginia
  • Tech F Chris Clarke kicked off team and touted frosh Landers Nolley not eligible, so lack of depth wearing on Tech
  • Now could be without PJ Horne who averages 16 minutes per game
    • But rest should help

10PM ET—Arizona at UCLA (ESPN 2)

  • Arizona 71-70
  • Arizona freshman Brandon Williams starting to pick up his game, leading them in scoring in conference play
  • He is one of two key players from LA, who may be extra fired up
  • UCLA picking up pace under interim head coach Murry Bartow, but reckless with ball

Pro Gamblers Sanctioned Rams-Patriots Super Bowl LIII Betting Scrutiny

The pro gambler sanctioned Super Bowl 53 betting sneak peek is here. The Los Angeles Rams encounter the New England Patriots. New England is -2.5 at Bovada and most sportsbooks, though up to -115 juice at some houses. The total ranges from 56.5 to 57. Betonline, home of the opening line debuted the odds at Rams -1 and 58.5.

A stunning 82 percent of bets and 84 in percentages terms of money handled is on Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, and the Patriots. Contrarian betting is weighted less than in previous years and decades. Still, most sharp gamblers favor being on the reverse side of public money. Sharps worship the opportunities to weaponize oddsmakers wisdom against them. However, said systems of indicators clash in Rams-Patriots. Defying line moves that have naught to do with injury newsflashes or anything directly to do with the game itself, is a remunerative approach. The Patriots are 13-5 SU and 11-7 ATS measured against the Rams superior 15-3 and 9-7 back wallet mark. When the team with the worse straight up mark is a playoff favorite, said teams historically are a good bet. 

Damn near every football master agrees that based purely on talent, the oddsmakers were correct. The Rams are the leading squad. But any rational intangible scrutiny, namely that Patriots have been there and won that, would support New England. Thus, the power ratings and matchups were outbalanced by the allure of an impressive playoff resume.

With such a substantial percentage of bets on New England, will it possibly get to -3? That is unlikely, though -2.5 and -130 may become commonplace. Sharps who already locked in on New England at a pick or +1 will prey on the Rams at +3, creating the ideal Bet Middler venture.

Both teams are well above normal offensively and below standard defensively. The Pats earn .3 more yards per play than their opponent allows typically compared to the Rams at .7 more. But on defense, New England will enable teams to exceed their regular yards per play by .2, Los Angeles by .3. Defensively the teams grade among the 12 worst in the NFL based on yards per play allowed. New England is 20th and LA 25th.

The author, Joe Duffy is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. He releases winners daily and is widely accepted as the top sports handicapper of all-time.

 

Rams-Patriots Super Bowl Props, Including National Anthem, Donald Trump, Halftime Show

The Super Bowl stage has been set, which means a plethora of props surrounding the big game will be released over the next two weeks.

First to market is BetDSI, which released a total of 64 props. This is the first wave of props, with categories such as pregame props, broadcasting props, Donald Trump props, gambling props, halftime show props, commercial props and miscellaneous props.

Game and player specific props will be sent out later this week. Please contact me if you have any questions, need additional information regarding Super Bowl betting or would like to schedule an interview with an oddsmaker. Thanks for reading. 

Super Bowl LIII Props

Pregame Props

Coin toss landing position

Heads -103

Tails -103

Coin toss call outcome

Correct -103

Wrong -103

Team will call which side of coin?

Heads -2500

Tails +800

What will team that wins coin toss choose?

Defer to 2nd half -115

Receive kickoff -115

Length of National Anthem (Gladys Knight)

Over 107 seconds (-115)

Under 107 seconds (-115)

Will Gladys Knight take a knee or raise a fist during or following the National Anthem?

Yes +600

No -1000

Will any player take a knee during the National Anthem? 

Yes +400

No -700

Will any player raise a fist during the National Anthem? 

Yes +200

No -300

Length of America the Beautiful (Chloe X Halle)

Over 95 seconds (-115)

Under 95 seconds (-115)

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Broadcasting Props

(Kickoff to final whistle. Live CBS television broadcast only. Halftime and commercials do not apply.)

Super Bowl LIII National Rating (According to Nielsen)

Over 44.5 (-115)

Under 44.5 (-115)

Super Bowl LIII U.S. Viewership (According to Nielsen)

Over 106.5 million (-115)

Under 106.5 million (-115)

Will CBS show replay of missed pass interference call on Rams vs. New Orleans (Nickell Robey-Coleman on Tommylee Lewis)

Yes -130

No +100

Will Jim Nantz say “hello friends” when announcers come on air?

Yes -10000

No +2500

Total times Jim Nantz and Tony Romo say “Gronk” 

Over 2.5 (-110)

Under 2.5 (-120)

Will Jim Nantz or Tony Romo say “GOAT”

Yes +360

No -500

Will Jim Nantz or Tony Romo say “dynasty”?

Yes -150

No +120

Will Jim Nantz or Tony Romo say “Bet Against Us”?

Yes +400

No -650

Will Jim Nantz or Tony Romo say “underdog”?

Yes -400

No +320

Will Jim Nantz or Tony Romo say “Philly Special”?

Yes +250

No -330

Will Jim Nantz or Tony Romo say “Hotlanta”?

Yes +200

No -260

Total times Roger Goodell will be shown

Over 1.5 (-110)

Under 1.5 (-120)

Who will Bill Cowher pick to win during CBS pregame show?

New England Patriots -130

Los Angeles Rams +100

Who will Nate Burleson pick to win during CBS pregame show?

New England Patriots +120

Los Angeles Rams -150

Who will Boomer Esiason pick to win during CBS pregame show?

New England Patriots +110

Los Angeles Rams -140

Who will Phil Simms pick to win during CBS pregame show?

New England Patriots -120

Los Angeles Rams -110

 

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Donald Trump Props

Will Donald Trump take part in pregame interview on CBS?

Yes -200

No +150

Will Donald Trump attend the game? 

Yes +800

No -1500

Total times Donald Trump tweets during the game?

Over 1 (-115)

Under 1 (-115)

Will Trump congratulate winning team via Twitter by midnight on 2/3/19?

Yes -150

No +120

Will the U.S. Government shutdown end before Super Bowl LIII (2/3/19)

Yes -180

No +145

Which will be higher?

Trump approval rating on 2/4/19 (according to Rasmussen Reports) +110

Yardage of longest made field goal -140

Which will be higher?

Total days of U.S. Government shutdown +110

Yardage of longest touchdown -140

Will the Super Bowl LIII winning team visit the White House? 

Yes -200

No +150

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Gambling Props

State with the largest Super Bowl LIII betting handle

Nevada -5000

New Jersey +100

Field (Any other state) +8000

Total amount wagered on Super Bowl LIII in Nevada (as reported by Nevada Gaming Control Board)

Over 165.5 million (-130)

Under 165.5 million (+100)

Total amount of seven-figure wagers on Super Bowl LIII at Nevada sportsbooks (as reported by ESPN Chalk) 

Over 6.5 (-110)

Under 6.5 (-120)

Largest wager on Super Bowl LIII by Floyd Mayweather (Must share ticket image on official Instagram account for action)

Over $2 million (-115)

Under $2 million (-115)

——————————

Halftime Show Props 

Will Adam Levine, Travis Scott or Big Boi take a knee?

Yes -300

No +220

Will any of the performers wear a Colin Kaepernick jersey?

Yes +220

No -300

First song performed

Moves Like Jagger +125

This Love +150

She Will Be Loved +300

Sugar +300

What Lovers Do +500

Payphone +750

Sunday Morning +750

One More Night +1000

Girls Like You +1000

Will Adam Levine be first shown wearing a hat? 

Yes -150

No +120

Total songs played during the halftime show? 

Over 6.5 (-115)

Under 6.5 (-115)

Will Christina Aguilera make an appearance during the halftime show? 

Yes +220

No -300

Will Mick Jagger make an appearance during the halftime show? 

Yes +300

No -400

——————————

 

Miscellaneous Props

Will NFL issue a report admitting they missed a call during Super Bowl?

Yes +250

No -330

Will any player do the Dirty Bird for TD celebration?

Yes +200

No -250

Will any player do The Floss for TD celebration?

Yes +450

No -750

Will any player use a prop during TD celebration?

Yes +300

No -400

Color of liquid thrown on winning coach

Clear/Water +200

Green/Yellow +300

Red +400

Orange +500

Blue +750

Purple +1000

Will a fan run onto the field during the game? 

Yes +600

No -1000

Will Rob Gronkowski announce retirement after game? (Must be shown on broadcast)

Yes +600

No -1000

Will Tom Brady announce retirement after game? (Must be shown on broadcast)

Yes +1200

No -2500

Will Bill Belichick announce retirement after game? (Must be shown on broadcast)

Yes +2500

No -5000

Winner of 14th Puppy Bowl

Team Fluff (-115)

Team Ruff (-115)

Will the roof of Mercedes-Benz Stadium be open at kickoff?

Yes -280

No +210

Atlanta temperature at kickoff (as reported by Weather.com)

Over 48 degrees (-115)

Under 48 degrees (-115)

Will Chick-fil-A in Mercedes-Benz Stadium serve food on Super Bowl Sunday (2/3/19)? 

Yes +1500

No -5000

——————————

Commercial Props

How many commercials will have a dog in it?

Over 5.5 (-115)

Under 5.5 (-115)

Will “Dilly Dilly” be said during a Bud Light commercial?

Yes -200

No +150

How many 30-second Bud Light commercials will feature the Bud Knight?

Over 1.5 (-115)

Under 1.5 (-115)

How many Clydesdales will be shown in Budweiser commercial?

Over 8.5 (-115)

Under 8.5 (-115)

Will there be an animal besides a horse in the Budweiser Clydesdale commercial?

Yes -130

No +100

Which soft drink brand commercial will air first? 

Coca-Cola -170

Pepsi +130

 

Sportsbook Online: Harden Likely MVP, But Can He Keep Up Pace

With James Harden continuing to wreak havoc on NBA records, BetDSI is offering a set of props surrounding “The Bearded One” and his hair-raising scoring streak.

The 30 points or more streak currently stands at 20 games going into Wednesday’s matchup at Madison Square Garden. According to USA Today, the NBA record is 65 consecutive games, held by Wilt Chamberlain. A recent report by Chris Sheridan suggests that Harden was unaware of the actual number for the record. 

On the board for wagering is when the streak of 30+ points will end and if Harden will break Chamberlain’s record, among others.

Also, BetDSI has set Harden’s point total tomorrow night against the Knicks at 42.5, which is the highest player point total in the history of NBA props.

When will James Harden’s streak of consecutive 30-point games end?

Over 40 games (-115)

Under 40 games (-115)

Will James Harden break Wilt Chamberlain’s record of 65 straight reg. season games with 30 or more points?

Yes +600

No -1000

James Harden end-of-season (regular) scoring average

Over 37.1 (+100)

Under 37.1 (-130)

James Harden total points vs. Knicks on 1/23/19

Over 42.5 (-115)

Under 42.5 (-115)

Will James Harden win the NBA MVP award?

Yes -160

No +125

NBA MVP Odds

James Harden -160

Giannis Antetokounmpo +210

LeBron James +900

Stephen Curry +1000

Kawhi Leonard +1100

Anthony Davis +1300

Kevin Durant +1600

Joel Embiid +2000

Russell Westbrook +2500

Paul George +3500

Nikola Jokic +3500

Damian Lillard +5000

Kemba Walker +7500

Kyrie Irving +7500

Ben Simmons +8000

Victor Oladipo +10000

DeMar DeRozan +10000

Donovan Mitchell +10000

Jimmy Butler +20000

Blake Griffin +25000