Critical NFL Betting Information

Joe Duffy already has several NFL plays up at press time at

Las Vegas-Kansas City

  • Vegas is 3-1 ats covering by an average of 5.4 points per game, second best mark in NFL

Mami-San Francisco 

  • Jimmy Garappolo is likely to play for 49ers as starting QB was questionable
    • 4 TDs, 0 INT
  • Niners RB Raheem Mostert is questionable
    • 148 rushing, 110 receiving yards
  • Niners WR Deebo Samuel is questionable
    • 3 receptions for 35 yards


  • Colts are 3-1 ats covering by 5.1 points per game
  • Browns are the top over team based on margin of cover, going over by 14.2 points per game, going over 3-1
  • Browns RB Nick Chubb is out


  • Falcons WR Julio Jones game-time decision
    • 15 receptions for 213 yards


  • Seattle is one of just two teams in NFL that are 4-0 ats, covering by 5 points per game


  • Jets are 0-4 ats failing to cover by -10.2 points per game, both worst in league
  • Joe Flacco starts at QB for Jets
  • Arizona is the top public consensus bet with 67 percent of wagers on them

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  • Terry McLaurin WR is probable
    • 26 receptions for 387 yards
  • Kyle Allen starts at QB for Washington
  • 63 percent chance of rain


  • Houston is 0-4 ats failing by an average of -7.2 points per game


  • Dallas is one of three 0-4 ats team, missing by an average of 5 points per game
  • Dallas has gone over 3-1, with a second in the league over margin of 13.1 points per game


  • Bengals RB Joe Mixon is questionable
    • 315 rushing yards, two touchdowns, 88 receiving yards plus another TD
  • The biggest totals consensus is on this game over with 68 percent of bets on such
  • 43 percent chance of rain

NC State-Virginia Free Betting Info

VIRGINIA -7.5 NC State at GTBets

  • Third of four straight road games for UVA
  • Off big upset at Pitt, play at Clemson next week
  • Home favorites versus an opponent off conference win as large underdog are 122-63-2
  • Virginia’s defenses numbers much better than points per game would suggest
  • Allow just 2.8 yards per rush teams normally allowing 3.7 and 5.5 yards per play to 5.8
    • Too many turnovers, but these are correctable

Free pick: VIRGINIA -7.5

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Saturday, two Wise Guys and two Majors up already. Two NFL winners posted as well at

Dodgers Heavy Favorites Over Braves; Also Favorite to Win World Series

With the NLCS set, oddsmakers were quick to post a line for the series, and they’ve made the Dodgers sizable favorites against Atlanta.

The initial series line from SportsBetting set L.A. as a 1:2 favorite.

NLCS Odds –

Atlanta Braves    +160    (8-5)
Los Angeles Dodgers    -200    (1-2)

In a hypothetical ALCS matchup, the Yankees would be -180 favorites over the Astros (+160). In the other scenario, the Rays would be -155 favorites over the Astros (+135).

The Dodgers started the MLB postseason as World Series favorites, and after sweeping San Diego, nothing has changed.

World Series Odds (will update after tonight’s game)

Los Angeles Dodgers     +175     (7-4)
New York Yankees     +375     (15-4)
Atlanta Braves     +400     (4-1) 
Tampa Bay Rays     +500     (5-1)
Houston Astros     +500     (5-1)

SportsBetting is also offering odds on the exact World Series matchup and outcome. The numbers suggest that the Dodgers will defeat the Yankees, or vice versa, in what would be a dream matchup for the league.

Exact World Series Outcome
Dodgers defeat Yankees     +550     (11-2)
Yankees defeat Dodgers     +550     (11-2)
Dodgers defeat Astros     +700     (7-1)
Dodgers defeat Rays     +700     (7-1)
Rays defeat Dodgers     +700     (7-1)
Astros defeat Dodgers     +750     (15-2)
Yankees defeat Braves     +1100     (11-1)
Braves defeat Yankees     +1100     (11-1)
Braves defeat Astros     +1400     (14-1)
Braves defeat Rays     +1400     (14-1)
Astros defeat Braves     +1400     (14-1)
Rays defeat Braves     +1400     (14-1)

Mike Evans Injury Update, Tampa vs. Chicago Betting Picks Update and Breakdown

Tampa travels to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Buccaneers are 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, going over 3-1. The Bears are also 3-1 SU, but 2-2 ATS, splitting totals at 2-2.

Odds: Tampa is -3.5 with a total of 44.5 at NFL live lines. It opened at -3 and 45.5. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .750 or better are 76-59-3 including 61-42-3 getting 2.5 or more, 39-22-3 with three or fewer wins.

Public betting percentages: Substantial splits are on the side as 78 percent of bets on are on Tampa, but 78 percent of money on the Bears. Many say this implies sharp money on the home underdogs and it is rare the share is this divergent. The total is almost as compelling with 65 percent of bets on over, yet 66 percent of cash on under.

Power ratings: Our power ratings have Tampa -.5 with a total of 47.5 and a projected 24-23 victory by the road team.

Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Tampa projected to win 23-21. The Bears covered 54 percent of simulations with the under at 53 percent. Another has the power ratings of Tampa -4 with a total of 47. Tampa covered 51.9 percent of simulations with it going over 56.5 percent of the time.

Against the spread trends: Tampa 4-0 road favorites, 19-40 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Chicago 1-8 loss and 4-12 overall.

Over-under trends: Tampa over 8-0 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, over 8-0 off spread loss. Chicago under 16-5 grass.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Yes, the last 33 days haven’t been as great as the last 33 years. But this is the strongest weekend yet. NFC TNF Game of the Year gets you started with powerful Wise Guy.  MLB side for 2:08 ET.  Get the picks now

Mike Evans is questionable for the Buccaneers. He already has 17 catches for 230 yards and 5 TDs. It looks like he will warm up before any final decision is made. Scotty Miller is likely to play for Tampa. He has 15 catches. Chris Godwin is out. Off a spectacular season, he has 11 catches this year. Nick Foles remains the starting QB for Chicago.

Miss State-Kentucky Free Preview

It’s early, but Joe Duffy already has a big weekend portfolio up at


If you listen to VSIN no doubt you’ve heard them rightfully tout a “short road dog” angle. We know the software they use, BetLabs. Rest assured, it’s good software as many of my top systems originated there. But I perfect on a database that not only goes back much further, but also has enormous versatility. Using  with a Boolean algebra, I can eliminate times there are conflicting systems. Because college football has more systems pointing to home favorites than any other sport, this feature is invaluable. Actually, BetLabs also has this, but I still love the versatility elsewhere. Regardless, my turbo-enhanced version is 921-693-44. A subsystem takes it to 58 percent with a large sample size of 660-477-32.

One of our simulations gives Miss State 53.5-44.4 percent chance of covering at +2. Another a tiny edge to Miss State. Best power ratings have MSU winning by one. Granted, none of the simulations emphatically say the Bulldogs, but the fact all three at least lean that way is significant, which is why the line dropped.

Miss State wins at LSU +14.5, then loses home to Arkansas -16.5. Mike Leach is predictably unpredictable, so off a home loss, hitting the road, is when they will play best. Star RB Kylin Hill, who can also catch out of backfield. He was hurt early in loss last week.

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Next NFL QB to Get Benched? You Can Bet on It

Storylines continue to be abundant in the NFL following three weeks of action.

As usual, oddsmakers have turned some of those talking points into wagers. People can bet on a number of props such as who will be the next quarterback benched, when Jalen Hurts will make his first start (if at all), Mitchell Trubisky’s future, 0-3 teams qualifying for the playoffs and much more.

Odds from SportsBetting are subject to change and your readers can view real-time numbers via the link below.

Week 4 NFL Props:

Next QB benched (non-injury related)

Sam Darnold       3-1    (+300)

Ryan Fitzpatrick  4-1   (+400)

Justin Herbert    5-1    (+500)

Daniel Jones      6-1     (+600)

Gardner Minshew         8-1     (+800)

Kirk Cousins      10-1   (+1000)

Nick Foles          12-1   (+1200)

Teddy Bridgewater 12-1         (+1200)

Baker Mayfield              14-1   (+1400)

Philip Rivers      16-1   (+1600)

Cam Newton     33-1   (+3300)

Which week will Jalen Hurts make first start?

Weeks 4-7      +400

Weeks 8-11    +250

Weeks 12-14  +225

Weeks 15-17  +150

Will Carson Wentz be benched during regular season? (non-injury related)

Yes  +200

No   -300

Will Mitchell Trubisky start another game? (non-injury related)

Yes  +250

No   -400

Will Mitchell Trubisky start for any team during 2021 season?

Yes  +200

No   -300

Will Tyrod Taylor start another game? (non-injury related)

Yes  +110

No   -150

Will any 0-3 team qualify for playoffs?

Yes  +450

No   -750

Will the Eagles make the playoffs?

Yes  +300

No   -500

Will the Texans make the playoffs?

Yes  +550

No   -1000

Will the Vikings make the playoffs?

Yes  +600

No   -1200

Which team will win a game first?

Jets       -300

Giants  +200

Will Jets and Broncos have new coach in Week 1 of 2021 season?

Yes  +100

No   -140

Will the Chiefs go 16-0?

Yes  +900

No   -2000

Winning picks at

Updated Power 5 Odds

The Big 12 is perceived to be so feeble that the oddsmakers still have Oklahoma listed as the conference favorite despite two early-season losses.

Undefeated Oklahoma State is a close second on the board while Texas and Iowa State are third and fourth, respectively.

For the two major conferences waiting to play, USC is listed as the early frontrunner for the Pac-12 title and Ohio State is the odds-on favorite in the Big Ten.

SportsBetting  a licensed sportsbook in Colorado, has the latest odds for all of the Power 5 conferences, which you can find below.

ACC Odds –

Clemson: 1-5
Notre Dame: 5-1
Miami: 8-1
North Carolina: 10-1
Virginia Tech: 18-1
Pittsburgh: 33-1
Virginia: 40-1
Louisville: 75-1
NC State: 100-1
Wake Forest: 125-1
Boston College: 150-1
Florida State: 200-1
Duke: 250-1
Georgia Tech: 250-1
Syracuse: 250-1

Big 12 Odds –

Oklahoma: 2-1
Oklahoma State: 3-2
Texas: 3-1
Iowa State: 7-2
TCU: 9-1
Baylor: 14-1
West Virginia: 16-1
Kansas State: 18-1
Texas Tech: 150-1
Kansas: 750-1

Big Ten Odds –

Ohio State: 2-3
Wisconsin: 8-1
Penn State: 11-1
Michigan: 12-1
Minnesota: 28-1
Iowa: 35-1
Northwestern: 45-1
Nebraska: 45-1
Indiana: 75-1
Michigan State: 130-1
Purdue: 140-1
Illinois: 500-1
Maryland: 500-1
Rutgers: 1500-1

SEC Odds –

Alabama: 1-2
Florida: 5-2
Georgia: 3-1
Tennessee: 20-1
Auburn: 25-1
Texas A&M: 25-1
LSU: 33-1
Mississippi State: 33-1
Kentucky: 66-1
Ole Miss: 150-1
Arkansas: 250-1
South Carolina: 250-1
Missouri: 500-1
Vanderbilt: 750-1

Pac-12 Odds –

USC: 3-2
Oregon: 2-1
Washington: 6-1
Arizona State: 9-1
California: 9-1
Utah: 9-1
Stanford: 12-1
UCLA: 12-1
Washington State: 33-1
Arizona: 100-1
Colorado: 100-1
Oregon State: 100-1

Get the winners at

Free Pick Vikings-Texans Week 4

Big weekend up at Joe Duffy has a free pick on:

MINNESOTA +3.5 Houston

This is the first time Houston is favorite this season. Fading favorites that have usually been in underdogs role is 153-93-12 including 18-4 the last 22.  That being said, they’ve played KC, Baltimore, and Pittsburgh. Go with the much more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 331-244-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.

Winless teams that blew at least an eight point lead the previous week are 49-24-1. Vikings led 24-12 last week against Titans.

Fading terrible teams (based on winning percentage) as favorites are 153-108-8. Vikings distraction as Titans players tested positive? If anything, just something to rally around. One simulator has Minnesota covering 52 percent, as a three-point win projected. Another has Minnesota covering 57.3 percent of time. Another power ratings has Minnesota -1.5 and projected to win by two.  We bet at GTBets



Gambler’s Preview Of Broncos vs. Jets Open Week 4 of NFL Odds

The Denver Broncos take on the New York Jets in a Thursday Night Football contest, ugly to fans, but gorgeous to bettors. Denver is 0-3 SU, but 2-1 to the number, going under 2-1. The Jets are 0-3 both SU and ATS, going over 2-1. They’ve lost all three games by double-digits. The Jets have the second worst margin of cover in the league at -10.3 points per game. Home teams not laying more than two-points are 74-61-2 ats if off three straight double-digit losses. That of course favors New York. The posted total has jumped around, but if it drops to 40.5, note that total of 40.5 or less have gone under 25-11 the last two seasons.

Brett Rypien becomes the third Bronco to start at QB this season. Denver is without Von Miller, Jurell Casey, Courtland Sutton, Phillip Lindsay and A.J. Bouye. The Jets are minus Le’Veon Bell, Breshard Perriman, and Denzel Mims.

Odds: New York is -1 and 41, pretty much straight across the board on both. It’s essentially back to where is started as New York was a P but -117 and 41 when it opened.

Public betting percentages: Though 56 percent of tickets written are on Denver, 70 percent of cash is on the Jets. A slight edge of 51 percent of bets on the over, but a whopping 90 percent of the cash is as well.

Power ratings: Power ratings have Denver -3 and 40.5 with a projected final of 21-17 in favor of the road team.

Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of the top commercial simulators has Denver winning 20-19 with Broncos covering 53 percent of the time and the under at 53 percent, though that projection is based on a total of 40. Another has the power rating of NYJ -3 and 37 with New York covering -1 at 55.3-42.7 rate. At 41 points, 61.2 percent of simulations go under to 35.2 going over.

Against the spread trends: Denver is 6-0 after getting less than 90 yards rushing their last game and 10-3 off loss of 14 or more points, also 10-3 on TNF. However, they are 8-23 after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game. New York 2-6 overall.

Over-under trends: Denver under 12-3 after allowing less than 90 yards rushing their last game,

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. JDP is a solid 9-5 the last 14, including Astros in consecutive days as +140 and +120. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. Duffy has a Thursday Night Football total to start a sensational week.  Get the picks now