Tag Archives: week 5 NFL betting

Mike Evans Injury Update, Tampa vs. Chicago Betting Picks Update and Breakdown

Tampa travels to Chicago to take on the Bears. The Buccaneers are 3-1 SU, 2-1-1 ATS, going over 3-1. The Bears are also 3-1 SU, but 2-2 ATS, splitting totals at 2-2.

Odds: Tampa is -3.5 with a total of 44.5 at NFL live lines. It opened at -3 and 45.5. Home underdogs with a winning percentage of .750 or better are 76-59-3 including 61-42-3 getting 2.5 or more, 39-22-3 with three or fewer wins.

Public betting percentages: Substantial splits are on the side as 78 percent of bets on are on Tampa, but 78 percent of money on the Bears. Many say this implies sharp money on the home underdogs and it is rare the share is this divergent. The total is almost as compelling with 65 percent of bets on over, yet 66 percent of cash on under.

Power ratings: Our power ratings have Tampa -.5 with a total of 47.5 and a projected 24-23 victory by the road team.

Computer simulations ATS and OU: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Tampa projected to win 23-21. The Bears covered 54 percent of simulations with the under at 53 percent. Another has the power ratings of Tampa -4 with a total of 47. Tampa covered 51.9 percent of simulations with it going over 56.5 percent of the time.

Against the spread trends: Tampa 4-0 road favorites, 19-40 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Chicago 1-8 loss and 4-12 overall.

Over-under trends: Tampa over 8-0 after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game, over 8-0 off spread loss. Chicago under 16-5 grass.

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Mike Evans is questionable for the Buccaneers. He already has 17 catches for 230 yards and 5 TDs. It looks like he will warm up before any final decision is made. Scotty Miller is likely to play for Tampa. He has 15 catches. Chris Godwin is out. Off a spectacular season, he has 11 catches this year. Nick Foles remains the starting QB for Chicago.

Free NFL Pick Week 5 ATS

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NFL free pick:

MINNESOTA -5.5 NY Giants

Go with a team playing consecutive road games, team off a loss under specific circumstances that apply today is 329-243-10. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 133-87-13.

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NFL Week 5 Super Sharp Betting Report, Sweat Barometer

Here is week five NFL sharp report, which includes the so-called sweat barometer. As usual, the public consensus biggest bets are dominated by road favorites, the road underdog Arizona is in the house. Please note, the line moves are from in the preseason when many sportsbooks had odds posted.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New England, Chicago, Arizona, Minnesota

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New England, Arizona, Minnesota

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Denver, Atlanta

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Philadelphia opened -6.5 to the Jets but now -14; Pittsburgh -4 to Baltimore now +3.5; New Orleans -6 to Tampa now +5

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

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These have been the best teams to bet on:

Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
San Francisco 2-1-0 12.7
New England 2-2-0 11.0
Tennessee 2-2-0 8.4
Kansas City 3-1-0 4.6
Carolina 2-2-0 4.5

These have been the best teams to bet against.

Team ATS Record Margin of Cover
Miami 0-4-0 -18.8
Cincinnati 2-2-0 -8.9
Washington 1-3-0 -6.9
Atlanta 1-3-0 -6.8
Arizona 2-2-0 -5.6
Denver 1-3-0 -4.6

Weather looks good and no major problems to worry about.