Tag Archives: Bowl betting

Ultimate Bowl Betting Guide 2018-19

Top betting site OffshoreInsiders.com, the top website for sports handicappers and vetted sportsbooks, has critical news and notes for bettors.

Worst spread teams in terms of margin of cover.

Team ATS Record ATS margin

Wisconsin 3-9 -8.6

South Florida 4-8 -7.9

San Diego State 3-9 -6.5

TCU 4-8 -6.2

LA Tech 6-6 -5.0

Western Michigan 4-8 -4.8

Best spread teams in terms of margin of cover.

Team ATS Record ATS margin

Cincinnati 7-5 +10.4

Utah State 9-3 +8.0

Iowa 7-5 +7.6

Washington State 10-2 +7.5

Fresno State 9-4 +7.3

Temple 8-4 +6.9

Syracuse 8-3-1 +6.8

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.

Players who are skipping the bowls to prepare for NFL draft: Iowa tight end Noah Fant, Michigan defensive lineman Rashad Gary, Houston defensive lineman Ed Oliver and Oklahoma State running back Justice Hill.

Bowl sharp intel:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Ohio State, UAB, Syracuse, Penn State, North Texas OVER, Michigan UNDER

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Syracuse, Ohio State, Memphis, Iowa State, North Texas OVER, West Virginia UNDER

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Arkansas State, Purdue, Central Florida, West Virginia UNDER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Fresno State opened at +3 now -4, West Virginia -6.5 now -1.5, Utah State -11 now -8, Memphis -2.5 now -5

 

Central Michigan-Purdue Betting Preview

Central Michigan takes on Purdue in
the Motor City
bowl. The Boilermakers are an eight-point favorite with a total of 71.5-72, so
shop around at our vetted sportsbooks.

Taken from our sports betting
previews
from articles around the Internet, Purdue players have expressed
how they want to go out on a high note after losing their final three regular
season games including to rival Indiana (a GodsTips.com
Wise Guy winner for sports bettors.

This is a rare bowl rematch as Purdue crushed the
Chippewas 45-22 back on Sept. 23.

The Bowl
previews
told you that offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched
statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets
27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2
more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per
attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more
passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per
reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but
not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7
fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper
hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less
passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than
CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly
even.

CMU went 7-2 straight up down the stretch and 5-3-1 against the spread during that
span. They also exceeded the total in seven of their last eight. Purdue went
3-6 against the spread to close out the regular season, including three
straight losses outright.

 


Bowl Breakdowns, Part 2

This is Part-2 where the Center of the Handicapping
Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of
the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 23-Dec. 27.

East Carolina-Boise State

Boise is much
better on both sides of the ball. They get 4.9 more first downs per game on
98.6 total yards per game and .7 more yards per play. East Carolina
holds their own in ball control though as the teams are dead even in rushing
yards per attempt. Boise gets 1.5 more passing yards per attempt but their
passing yards per reception is actually less than many may think, getting a
minimal .5 more than the Pirates.

The Broncos actually have slightly better margins of
advantage on the defensive side of the ball. The Boise
boys allow 5.7 fewer first downs per game, 107.7 fewer yards on .8 less yards
per play allowed. The superiority is pretty consistent though as they allow .4
less rushing yards per attempt and 1.1 less passing yards per attempt. However,
ECU allows .2 fewer passing yards per reception. Boise
has a commanding advantage in pass completion percentage allowing 10.2 less.
Before you conclude the stats say Boise
should be an even bigger chalk, note ECU protects the ball much better with a
turnover ratio 10 better than BSU.

Central Michigan-Purdue

Offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched
statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets
27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2
more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per
attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more
passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per
reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but
not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7
fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper
hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3
less passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better
than CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are
nearly even.

Texas-Arizona State

Texas is
slightly better overall offensively, but Arizona
State
is better in the air. The Longhorns
amass 52 more yards per game on .8 more yards per play. Texas
has the smash mouth upper hand by a significant 1.5 more yards per rush.
However it’s ASU that accrues .4 more passing yards
per attempt and .7 more passing yards per reception.

Contrary to the stereotype of the Pac-10, the Sun Devils
allow 3.3 fewer first downs per game, 35.9 fewer yards and .2 less yards per
play. Texas though allows 7.8
fewer yards per rush. The Longhorns get the edge in rushing yards per attempt
allowed by .6, but ASU allows 1.0 passing yards per
attempt but Texas .4 less passing
yards per reception allowed.

ASU has significant superiority
on passing percentage allowed by 10.1 and turnover ratio by 10.

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