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NBA

Major

GOLDEN STATE -4 Cleveland

The Warriors depth has clearly worn down Cleveland. They are playing at their pace. One guy cannot win it on his own. Even in the Sunday game with two days rest, Golden State clearly had the fresher legs. Now with just one day rest it gets ugly.

MLB

Wise Guy

Seattle-San Francisco OVER 7

IL Total of the Month

Both pitchers are coming back down to earth. JA Happ has 1.88 home ERA but now he is on the road where it is 7.48. His batting average against is .351 on the road to .283 at home. His day batting average against is .388 to just .273 at night.

Streaky Tim Lincecum has a 6.40 ERA his last four starts with a 1.60 WHIP.

ATLANTA (TEHERAN +150) Boston (Miley)

Day IL Game of the Month

Boston has lost seven straight -8.4 units. Atlanta is +2.3 units their last seven games. Julio Teheran last three starts has .984 WHIP. Wade Miley has 7.05 ERA and 1.761 WHIP.

Major

MIAMI (PHELPS +105) NY Yankees (Eovaldi)

This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.

We have reduced the number of such picks after refining the metrics to raise the winning percentage. In short we have more sources that must validate it is widely authenticated.

KANSAS CITY (YOUNG -110) Milwaukee (Garza)

Royals are 5-2 the last seven. Milwaukee has dropped three in a row. In 52 IP Chris Young has a 2.25 ERA and .942 WHIP. At night he is 4-1 personally with a team mark of 5-1. On the other hand Matt Garza is 0-6 at night with a 7.41 ERA and 1.699 WHIP. His team record at night is 1-6 -5.2 units. Garza is 3-6 to KC.

Nice 5-2 night for Joe Duffy’s Picks. It is not that far off from what we have done for 27 years, now at OffshoreInsiders.com

Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.

As a college graduate, Joe Duffy apologizes for lack of apostrophes and quotations. There is a compatibility issue with Word and php updates that cause issues.

NBA

Wise Guy

CLEVELAND +1 Atlanta

Yes the Kevin Love injury is big but Kyrie Irving will play. The Adrienne Barbeau theory applies. The deeper we get into the playoffs, the more top heavy a team needs to be.

Yes the Hawks have the depth, but Cleveland has a much better 1-2 punch led by one of the best players off all-time who came to Cleveland to win his hometown a championship. Atlanta swept Cleveland, but King James has much more to prove now, while Atlanta had the chip on their shoulder during the regular season.

Cleveland has best net rating in the NBA playoffs at 9.5 to just 3.9 for Atlanta. Net rating is the different between offensive and defensive efficiency.

Atlanta has two more losses in the postseason despite playing the worst team in the postseason Brooklyn and a Washington team in which their star player Kevin Wall for missed three games, then played two hurt.

Cleveland meanwhile played a Bulls team with Derrick Rose back. Cleveland is without question the better team and should be the favorite.

NHL

Major

TAMPA -135 NY Rangers

It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.

Tampa-NY Rangers UNDER 5

It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.

MLB

Wise Guy

NY METS (COLON -103) St. Louis (Martinez)

Go with home underdogs with a starting pitcher whose strikes out five or more batters per start, stranding 6.9 or less runners on base per game on the season is +107.1 and 298-240 despite being an underdog every game.

The Mets are 16-5 at home. Carlos Martinez is getting drilled in last three starts his ERA is 10.29 with a 2.375 WHIP. NY is 6-2 with Colon.

Major

WASHINGTON (ZIMMERMAN -137) NY Yankees (Warren)

Overachieving NY has lost 6-of-7. Once underachieving Washington is 15-4 the last 19. We do have an angle that says teams with winning percentage at .550 or better in a big slump is a great fade. Adam Warren has gotten a lot of support, but his road ERA is 6.04.

NY has an OPS of just .569 their last seven games. Washington in the same span is .868. NY had the DH in all but one, Washington did not in all but one.

NY Mets-St. Louis OVER 7

Carlos Martinez is getting drilled in last three starts his ERA is 10.29 with a 2.375 WHIP. Ageing Bartolo Colon has given up 10 runs, nine earned in his last 11 IP. He has been tagged for 15 hits.

LA ANGELS (WEAVER +109) Toronto (Hutchison)

It is an outsourced pick, previous called a competitor consensus, but renamed to more accurately reflect the parameters. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side or if we are neutral on a pick, but at least two elite sources or contacts have a bet sans any conflicting bets from said sources, it is a bet for us as an outsourced pick.

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