Week 1 NFL Super Sharp Betting: Market Report, Critical Betting Notes, Line Moves

Sunday, September 11🇺🇸, 2002 NFL betting primer, week 1 footbal picks. 

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Baltimore, Carolina, Jacksonville

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Carolina

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Minnesota +2 to -1.5, Kansas City -3 to -6.5,  Cleveland +1.5 to -1.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: NY Giants, Houston, Chicago

🖥 1 ET. Big Red’s syndicate betting one of their strongest NFL total bet at 1 ET. Big Red is a major figure and pioneer in offshore betting. He has unique access to professional oddsmakers and gamblers. All his bets are based on consulting with elite handicappers, pro bettors and linesmakers and tops the list of sources for LateInfo. OffshoreInsiders.com

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

NFL betting

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

NFL Betting Inside Information

🔥Kevin O’Connell takes over as HC for Minnesota 

🔥System: week 1 divisional dogs are 15-5 ATS, 12-7-1 SU since 2018, 28-8 ATS since 2014, 21-16 SU. Favors Atlanta, Pittsburgh, New England, Houston, Minnesota, Las Vegas

🔥Above stat includes 4-0-1 SU, 5-0 ATS at home since ’18, 10-2 ATS,  8-3-1 SU since 2014: Atlanta, Houston, Minnesota 

🔥Saints have won four straight SU in Atlanta and Falcons off 0-7 ATS home campaign 

🔥Marcus Mariota takes over as QB for Atlanta, Jameis Winston for New Orleans 

🔥Lions shuffling OL because of injuries 

🔥Eagles won last year in Detroit 44-6

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🔥Steelers starters play a lot more in preseason than Bengals

🔥Cincinnati swept Pittsburgh last year by a combined 65-20 even though Pittsburgh outgained them

🔥Steelers start journeyman Mitch Trubisky at QB, keeping seat warm for local kid Kenny Pickett as Pittsburgh begins post-Roethlisberger era 

🔥Jets current starting QB Joe Flacco may be extra motivated facing his old team, but has lost seven straight as a starting QB SU

🔥Ravens looked substantially better than Jets in NFLX

🔥Another QB facing old team as Panthers Baker Mayfield taking on the team that gave up on him

🔥Browns start journeyman Jacoby Brissett at QB; regular starter Deshaun Watson is suspended

🔥Oft injured superstar Christian McCaffrey is healthy for now for Panthers

🔥Browns 0-16-1 SU in season openers, including pair of 30-point losses last three

🔥Super Bowl winning coach Doug Peterson takes over the dysfunctional Jags hoping to transform Trevor Lawrence into a franchise QB

🔥Fins debut new HC Mike McDaniel 

🔥Pats with a lot of question marks on OL ad lost OC Josh McDaniels 

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