Sweet 16 market watch, plus NBA betting intel using the same criterion. Keep in mind, the adage “public dogs die” is true, though not as much in the postseason where JoeyBagOfDonuts is willing to bet on underdogs.
🏀Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Florida, Providence (dog); Pistons
🏀Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Providence (dog); Pistons, Heat
🏀Biggest splits in terms of percent of tickets versus the percent of cash: St. Peter’s 53 percent of bets, but only 22 percent of cash; Houston Rockets 57 but a mere 23 percent of cash.
🏀Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Miami Hurricanes opened at -1, now -3 is the only one of note in NCAA Tournament today. In the NBA, the public is also loving Miami, as the Heat went from -5.5 to -7.5.
Top expert pick: Houston Cougars, my only Wise Guy, wins easily. I go 2-1 in Dance and am now 23-13 with postseason college basketball! Holy hell. The NCAA Tournament Game of the Yeargoes Friday among three NCAA Tournament winners. The winningest capper in world history with the GOY? You have an easy decision, Bubba.
The Grandmaster has added five NBA winnersas well. Get the picks now
Most contrarian bettors love to fade the bets in the first category “percentage of bets.” The belief is that the public is almost always wrong (which is why bookmakers make a lot of money) by chasing square theories. Hence betting against them is a winning proposition. Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is widely accepted as the top sports handicapper in the world. He prefers percent of tickets, which weighs $5 bettors the same as $500 and $5,000 a game wagerers saying, “If anything, the small bettor is the ultimate fade.”
While not completely disagreeing, Cy McCormick of the Masterlockline asserts that he prefers betting against the money. “Bookmakers always win long-term, so I want to be rooting for the same side they are,” while pointing out it is the money, not number of bets that will move the line.
Others like corroboration. If the same team is loved by both the handle and volume of bets, that’s “Truly a public play,” according to noted gambler Big Red. Finally, the splits are considered a sharp versus square metric. If majority of bets are on side A, but most of the money is on side B, some gamblers consider this equating to side B betting a sharp versus square bet.
The NCAA Tournament commands the largest betting handle of any sporting event in America, and along with the standard game odds there is no shortage of props available to wager on.
SportsBetting has rolled out 77 unique props with more than 300 betting options for March Madness. The list below is broken down into nine sections:
Mascots
Regions
Player Stats
Seedings
Conferences/Head-to-Head Matchups
Sweet 16
Game Totals
Eliminations
Overtime/Buzzer Beaters
NCAA Tournament prop bets are subject to change and current odds can be found at SportsBetting
The tournament hasn’t even started yet, but the number crunchers are predicting which teams will advance to the Sweet 16, and ultimately, emerge from their regions and reach the Final Four.
SportsBetting only has one surprise in the regional odds below. No. 2-seeded Kentucky is favored to take the East Region instead of Baylor. The top seeds are favored in the other three regions.
Additionally, there are “Yes/No” odds for 16 teams (all of the teams seeded 1-4) to advance to the Sweet 16.
Arkansas, Illinois, Providence and Wisconsin are the only teams of the 16 not favored to advance to the Sweet 16. Providence is just a 2-point favorite in its opening round game against South Dakota State.
Odds are subject to change and current odds can be found on these pages:
The Lord of the Big Dance, 34-year handicapping veteran (scorephone legend), Joe Duffy has every pick in the tournament for a mere $149 at OffshoreInsiders.com
The bracket is set, and bets have already begun pouring in on the March Madness matchups.
SportsBetting was one of the first books to release spreads and totals for each game, which you can find below. Get every Joe Duffy pick of the NCAA Tournament when they come out. Beat the line moves for $149. Get the picks now
First Four – Tuesday
No. 16 Texas A&M Corpus-Christi vs. No. 16 Texas Southern
Tom Brady is apparently un-retiring, which changes the entire landscape of the upcoming NFL season.
SportsBetting adjusted its Super Bowl, conference, division and MVP odds after today’s news. Here’s how the Bucs odds were impacted:
Super Bowl: 28-1 to 8-1 NFC: 14-1 to 7-2 Division: +150 to -215
NFC South Tampa Bay Buccaneers -215 New Orleans Saints +450 Atlanta Falcons +500 Carolina Panthers +700
Super Bowl Top 10
Buffalo Bills 7-1 Green Bay Packers 15-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-1 Kansas City Chiefs 9-1 Los Angeles Rams 12-1 San Francisco 49ers 14-1 Denver Broncos 14-1 Dallas Cowboys 16-1 Baltimore Ravens 20-1 Los Angeles Chargers 22-1 Tennessee Titans 22-1
MVP Top 10
Josh Allen 7-1 Patrick Mahomes 8-1 Aaron Rodgers 9-1 Tom Brady 10-1 Matthew Stafford 11-1 Joe Burrow 12-1 Dak Prescott 12-1 Justin Herbert 12-1 Kyler Murray 13-1 Russell Wilson 15-1
After this past season’s NFL championship game, a 7-10 Broncos team was given quite conservative odds for Super Bowl LVII.
Just over a month ago, SportsBetting gave Denver 20-1 odds to hoist the Lombardi Trophy next season. The odds, which were better than the Bucs, Titans, Chargers, Cardinals, Colts, Patriots, Ravens and Packers, were that low in large part due to the distinct possibility that Aaron Rodgers could be traded to the Broncos.
During the next few weeks, when the Rodgers rumors continued but were never concrete, Denver’s odds escalated to 25-1. And then today’s trade, which sent Russell Wilson to the Broncos for players and a ton of draft capital, significantly impacted the Super Bowl odds.
After the Wilson deal, the Broncos went from 25-1 to 14-1 at sportsbooks.
“This was a 7-10 team last year with essentially a stump at quarterback,” MaximBet head trader Lenny Estrin said. “Now, you’re putting one of the best signal callers in the game on that roster with an incredibly talented defense…the AFC West may now be as good as the NFC West. I don’t think anyone is expecting the Broncos to be Super Bowl champs next year, but with Wilson they are now legit contenders.”
Speaking of division odds, the Broncos went from having the third-worst odds at 5-1 to win the West to now the second-best odds behind Kansas City.
The Broncos are also third on the AFC odds board, vaulting up from the eighth spot.
AFC West
Kansas City Chiefs +110
Denver Broncos +250
Los Angeles Chargers +350
Las Vegas Raiders +1000
Broncos finishing position in AFC West
2nd +100
3rd +125
1st +250
4th +400
Additionally, Russell Wilson’s MVP odds improved, going from 25-1 in Seattle to 15-1 in Denver.
Last year Gonzaga knocked on the door. This season they are about 3-1 favorites to kick it in and win the 2022 NCAA Basketball National Championship. Odds are from Bovada but compare to MyBookie and at Betonline, the home of the opening line as well.
Atlantic Sun Conference Tournament Winner
3/3/22 7:00 PM
Outright
Liberty+130
Jacksonville State +170
Jacksonville +600
Bellarmine+1200
Florida Gulf Coast+1000
Kennesaw State+1800
Lipscomb+4500
Central Arkansas+6000
Horizon League Conference Tournament Winner
3/3/22 7:00 PM
Outright
Cleveland State+200
Wright State+400
Northern Kentucky+450
IPFW+475
Oakland +500
Detroit U+850
Illinois Chicago+3000
Robert Morris+8000
Missouri Valley Conference Tournament Winner
3/3/22 7:00 PM
Outright
Bradley+900
Drake+500
Evansville +50000
Illinois State+12500
Indiana State+10000
Loyola Chicago+140
Missouri State+260
Northern Iowa+500
Southern Illinois+2000
Valparaiso+10000
Patriot Conference Tournament Winner
3/3/22 7:00 PM
Outright
Colgate-210
Navy+300
Boston U+550
Loyola Maryland +2500
Lehigh+2800
Army+3500
American+8000
Bucknell+10000
Ohio Valley Conference Tournament Winner
3/3/22 7:30 PM
Outright
Murray State (#22)-220
Belmont+240
Morehead State+750
SE Missouri State+1800
Tennessee State+3500
Tennessee Tech+6000
West Coast Conference Conference Winner
3/3/22 9:00 PM
Tournament Winner
Gonzaga (#1)-450
Saint Mary’s CA +375
Santa Clara+1200
San Francisco+2000
BYU +2500
Loyola Marymount+20000
Portland U+20000
Pacific +40000
Pepperdine +40000
San Diego+40000
Big South Conference Tournament Winner
3/4/22 12:00 PM
Outright
Longwood +130
Winthrop+180
Gardner Webb+450
Campbell+1000
High Point+2500
USC Upstate+1200
North Carolina A&T+4000
Charleston Southern +25000
Southern Conference Tournament Winner
3/4/22 5:00 PM
Outright
Furman+140
Chattanooga+200
Wofford+500
VMI+3000
NC Greensboro+800
Samford+1800
East Tennessee State+2500
Mercer+2500
The Citadel+10000
Western Carolina+10000
Odds To Win NCAAB Men’s Basketball Championship 2021/2022
3/5/22 10:00 AM
Odds to Win NCAAB Men’s Basketball Championship 2021/2022
Gonzaga (#1)+350
Kentucky (#7)+600
Arizona (#2)+700
Auburn (#5)+1000
Duke (#4)+1100
Purdue (#8)+1100
Baylor (#3)+1400
Kansas (#6)+1400
Texas Tech (#12)+2000
UCLA (#17)+2500
Villanova (#11)+2500
Tennessee (#13)+3500
Houston (#14)+4000
Arkansas (#15)+4500
Illinois (#20)+5000
Wisconsin (#10)+5000
Alabama (#25)+6000
Rutgers+6000
Connecticut (#18)+7000
Ohio State (#23)+7000
Texas (#21)+7000
Michigan+8000
Providence+8000
USC (#16)+8000
LSU +9000
Marquette +9000
Iowa (#24)+10000
Michigan State +10000
Saint Mary’s CA +10000
Seton Hall +10000
Memphis +12500
Boise State+15000
Loyola Chicago+15000
Murray State+15000
North Carolina+15000
Notre Dame +15000
Oregon+15000
Xavier +15000
Colorado State +20000
SMU+20000
San Diego State +20000
Wake Forest+20000
Wyoming +20000
BYU +25000
Davidson+25000
Florida +25000
Indiana+25000
Iowa State +25000
Miami (FL)+25000
Oklahoma+25000
Cincinnati+30000
Creighton+30000
Saint Louis+30000
TCU+30000
Utah State+30000
Virginia+30000
Belmont+40000
Dayton+40000
Kansas State+40000
Va Commonwealth+40000
Virginia Tech+40000
Florida State+50000
Iona+50000
Mississippi State+50000
Richmond +50000
St. Bonaventure +50000
UAB+50000
Washington State+50000
Central Florida+100000
Temple+100000
UNLV+100000
Odds To Win NCAAB Men’s Basketball Championship 2021/2022
Ja Morant put on a show last night, scoring 52 points with a couple of dazzling shots and a chorus of “MVP” chants from the Memphis contingent.
Even Allen Iverson gave Mr. Morant some MVP support on social media, but the number crunchers aren’t ready to hand over the hardware to the league’s most improved player, just yet.
SportsBetting released updated NBA awards odds Tuesday, and Morant went from +1200, or 12-1, to +800 overnight. Just last week, Morant had odds as high as +2500, and he went into the season with +4000 chances.
Joel Embiid remains the odds-on favorite for MVP at -130 while Nikola Jokic and Giannis Antetokounmpo round out the Top 3.
Below are the latest numbers for MVP, Most Improved Player, ROY, DPOY, Sixth Man and Coach of the Year.
MVP
Joel Embiid -130
Nikola Jokic +300
G. Antetokounmpo +600
DeMar DeRozan +800
Ja Morant +800
Stephen Curry +2000
Devin Booker +2200
Luka Doncic +3300
Most Improved Player
Ja Morant -1200
Miles Bridges +900
Darius Garland +950
Dejounte Murray +1600
Anfernee Simons +3300
Rookie of the Year
Evan Mobley -600
Scottie Barnes +650
Cade Cunningham +1000
Josh Giddey +1100
Franz Wagner +2500
Defensive Player of the Year
Rudy Gobert -155
G. Antetokounmpo +375
Jaren Jackson Jr +550
Draymond Green +650
Mikal Bridges +1400
Joel Embiid +2000
Evan Mobley +3300
Sixth Man of the Year
Tyler Herro -3300
Kelly Oubre Jr. +1400
Kevin Love +1800
Montrezl Harrell +6000
Jordan Clarkson +6600
Coach of the Year
Monty Williams -225
JB Bickerstaff +350
Taylor Jenkins +650
Erik Spoelstra +900
Billy Donovan +1200
Steve Kerr +2800
Sports betting blog with sports handicapping picks from the best sports handicappers, pregame betting information, sports handicapping articles, links to live odds, free picks, sportsbook information and more. All pro gamblers go to this betting blog before placing a bet.