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Pro Gambler’s Breakdown of Chiefs vs. Ravens

Week 3 of NFL betting concludes with arguably the biggest game of the season as the Kansas City Chiefs take on the Baltimore Ravens. The possible AFC Championship Game preview sees both teams 2-0 SU. Each team has split their totals going over and under once. KC is 1-1 to the number, Baltimore 2-0. Baltimore is topping the oddsmakers by a league leading 17.2 points per game. Only Green Bay is beating the bookies by an average of more than double-digits, though of course every other teams, sans tonight’s foes, have played three games.

Teams with a 15 or better margin of cover average for the year are 100-124-8, including 88-116-7 if not a home underdog. This of course would say to fade Baltimore and bet on KC.

Odds: Baltimore is either -3 with juice in the -119 or -120 range or -3.5 with juice at even money at books like WagerWeb. The total is as low as 54.5, but as high as 55.5. The game opened at -1.5 and 52. Some consider opening line when all bookies have one, AKA “widely available” opening line. Many love world opener for power lines and other purposes.

Public betting percentages: 58 percent of bets and 64% of money is on Kansas City. On one hand, the public loves favorites, but they do tend to jump on high-quality underdogs, so the fact they love the defending Super Bowl champs as puppies is not a surprise.

Power ratings: The Ravens should be -3.5 with a total of 50. They are projected to win 27-24.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Baltimore winning 29-24 with the Ravens covering -3 at 52 percent of the time and the game going under 55 percent. Even with the pushes, the model represents only a mild lean to the Ravens, but with the added juice at -3, it is essentially a wash. At +3.5, the other elite model has KC covering 55.1-44.9, but only 46.6-44.9 at +3, with about nine percent pushing. At 54.5, 54.9 percent of simulations go over.

Against the spread trends: Kansas City 7-0 after accumulating more than 250 yards passing in their previous game, 4-0-1 MNF, 9-1 away dog. Baltimore is 9-1 to AFC.

Over-under trends: Kansas City over 15-5 underdogs, but under 35-16 after allowing more than 150 yards rushing in their previous game.

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