Tag Archives: free picks NFL

NFL Free Pick Patriots vs. Bills

The Grandmaster is firing on all cylinders. 15-6 overall, 14-7 NFL, 7-3 football this week. The sharp bets both originate here and major syndicates have very similar systems and metrics. That’s why we release many winners early in week for best closing line value. Monday, we released WVU UNDER 48.5 and Navy +14.5. 7-1 Wise Guy plays. Lock in long-term.

Get nine NFL winners including Wise Guy on arguably the best game of the day, Pittsburg-Baltimore. Sides and totals are all part of the early stages of one of JDP’s historic runs.  Get the picks now

NEW ENGLAND +3.5 Buffalo

  • Buffalo is 5-2 SU, New England 2-4 SU so records imply Buffalo is better team significantly
  • Yet only -3.5 at home
  • Team with substantially worse SU record is not getting more than four points on road 142-81-7 including 65.5 percent if not getting more than 3.5
  • Not sold on Josh Allen
    • Completed 70% or more 3 times, all in first 4 games
    • Almost did last week, but against Jets
    • 3 INTs last three, one first four
    • Prove to me he’s among elite
  • Buffalo 2 wins to Jets, one to Fins
  • Newton needs wakeup call
    • Took benching like a man

Stafford Out Among NFL Injuries, 2 Free NFL Picks

Whew. We avoided getting boned on Wyoming UNDER. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. Ten NFL winners led by Wise Guy. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are in near unanimity considered the strongest bet in sports wagering by bookmakers, pro gamblers, oddsmakers, and fellow handicappers alike.  Three NBA winners, two are Wise Guys including another “named” play, the NBA Interconference Total of the Month.  Get the picks now

NFL injuries:

  • Matt Stafford out for Detroit
    • Athletic journeyman Jeff Driskell starts 
  • Cowboys WR Amari Cooper is probable 
  • Jets RB Le’Veon Bell is probable 
  • Colts QB Jacoby Brissett is out

Lions at Bears

  • Stafford out as mentioned above 
  • Revenge angle based on each team playing poorly the week before is 68-28 (Detroit)
  • Consecutive road games, team off a loss is 327-237-11 (Detroit)
  • Detroit gets 8.1 yards per pass attempt teams normally accumulating 7.4 but allow 7.4 to 7.2
  • With Trubisky, Bears can’t exploit that 

The pick: Detroit +3.5

Bills at Browns

  • When a team is favorite despite having at least four fewer wins than opponent and not getting at least 2.5 points, they are 58-23 ats (Cleveland)
  • Anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home are 140-101-10 (Cleveland)
  • Bad ats team to a good one is 217-137-14 
  • RB Kareem Hunt makes his debut for Cleveland and expected to play a big role 
  • Bills “trendy dog” getting 80 percent of bets

The pick: Cleveland -2.5

Updated, Critical NFL Betting Intel: Snow, Injuries, Free Pick From Best NFL Handicapper

Of course we win in football yet again! We go 5-3, which is horrible for us and are 42-14 in football. JDP is Sunday, three Wise Guys, four Majors. Told ya. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades.  Get the picks now

Cardinals vs. Vikings

  • Arizona under 4-1 at -5.9
  • Double-digit dogs with winning percentage of .250 or less are 120-87-4
  • Vikings expected to get Dalvin Cook back at RB but will be on pitch count
  • Vikings 25-10 home under Mike Zimmer 

Chargers vs. Browns

  • Road anti-splits angle that says go with road teams winless on road and undefeated at home is 144-108 (Chargers)
  • Mountain or Pacific Time Zone teams playing at 1 ET are a go-against of 172-123-5 (Cleveland)
  • Go against teams off win as a home underdog is 406-318 (San Diego)
  • Browns three overtime games in first five
  • First Energy Stadium, No. 1 under stadium, going under 74-47-1
  • Possible winds of 10 mph or ore
  • Winds at 10 mph or stronger go UNDER 439-351-10
  • Chargers banged up with WR Travis Benjamin and DE Joey Bosa both out

Bears vs. Dolphins

  • Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is questionable
  • Brock Osweiler would start
  • Teams that blew a 17-point or more lead and lost by double-digits are a go AGAINST of 11-3 in this rare situation. That says to FADE Miami Dolphins and go with Chicago
  • But, but teams that return home after blowing double-digit lead after three quarters are 59-40 (Dolphins)
  • Bears 3-1 against the spread with league best +9.9 margin of cover
  • But teams with at least three wins and off their first two losses bounce back at home to a 19-14 against the spread (Bears)
  • Fading home underdogs off consecutive losses is 104-78 against the spread (Chicago)
  • Dolphins worst run-blocking team according to Football Focus metrics versus top run defense in Chicago
  • With Dolphins bet on inconsistency and off consecutive losses, take them as big home underdogs
  • Miami very banged up on defense

Panthers vs. Redskins

  • Road teams winless on road, decent at home SU are 179-120-8
  • Teams off a 20-point or more loss 406-339-17 (Redskins)
  • 61 percent of Cam Newtown’s road starts have gone under at 36-23
  • Panthers should have TE Greg Olsen back
  • Washington banged up at skilled positions as WR Jamison Crowder and RB Chris Thompson out and WR Paul Richardson game-time decision

Colts vs. NY Jets

  • Andrew Luck 12-1 against the spread off a spread and against the spread loss
  • Jets could be down as many as three starters on defense, plus RB Isaiah Crowell

Steelers vs. Bengals

  • Cincinnati over 4-1 by +9.7
  • Fading underdogs off 21 point or more wins is 111-84 against the spread (bet on Bengals)
  • Ben Roethlisberger 10-5 SU, 10-4-1 against the spread as underdogs to a team with a winning percentage of better than .500
    • 5-1 SU and against the spread as dog to Bengals
  • Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU at Paul Brown Stadium and 15-2 SU on the road to Marvin Lewis
  • Bengals walking wounded, check updated injuries
  • Bengals WR John Ross is doubtful

Buccaneers vs. Falcons

  • Atlanta is 1-4 against the spread with a league-worst -7.2 margin over cover
  • Tampa over 4-0 by league leading 13.4 points per game
  • Atlanta over 4-1 by 8.8 points per game
  • Jameis Winston starts at QB for Tampa
  • Falcons QB Matt Ryan 6-17 as favorite of FG or less
  • Divisional underdogs off a by 48-36 (Tampa)
  • Falcons with down four starters on defense, three out for year Deion Jones, Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal, plus DT Grady Jarrett likely out
  • Tampa is likely to get the turn of OJ Howard at TE
  • Falcons vulnerable to deep ball and Tampa throws deep often
  • Tampa league-worst defense allowing 9.4 passing yards per attempt, 13 TD passes, and 358 passing yards per game, all dead last
  • First time all season, Falcons will likely have same starting line-up in back-to-back games

Seahawks vs. Raiders (London)

  • Seattle QB Russell Wilson 8-1 SU, 6-2-1 against the spread off home loss
  • Favorites in London 14-7 against the spread
  • Many advanced metrics on Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions suggest Raiders OL matches up well to Raiders
  • Drizzle expected in London and 13 mph

Bills vs. Texans

  • Go against teams off win as a home underdog is 406-318 (Houston)
  • Houston QB Deshaun Watson upgraded to probable
    • Backup Brandon Weeden
  • Non-playoff teams from previous season that open up as double-digit favorites are go against of 120-86 (Bills)
  • Lamar Miller will return at RB for Texans
  • Advanced metrics say two of the worst OLs in football
  • 10 mph winds

Rams vs. Broncos

  • Denver 0-4-1 -5.9
  • Big favorites in non-divisional games versus good rushing teams goes under at 35-8
  • Temps in the 20 and it is snowing
  • Rams Jared Goff has never started in game with temps freezing in his college or NFL career
    • Twice below 40 in the NFL, losing both and scoring a combined 13 points
  • Denver 0-2 home underdogs of seven or more, failing against the spread by 14.5 points average
  • Betting the team total over is 14-7 against Denver under Vance Joseph and betting on Rams team total over under McVay is 16-5

Jaguars vs. Cowboys

  • Dallas under 4-1, top under margin at -6.8
  • Jags since week 1 win are -8 in turnover margin, including -3 each of the last two games
  • Pokes without Sean Lee
  • Jags without Leonard Fournette
  • Jaguars star CB Jalen Ramsey upgraded to probable

Ravens vs. Titans

  • Baltimore 3-2 +8.6, second in league
  • Tennessee under 3-2, second biggest under margin at -6.1
  • Titans 69 percent of bets, third biggest consensus
  • Above .500 teams in October or later as home underdogs are a go-against of 71-59


Another road team off a road loss angle is 130-73. Bad teams that have been covering the spread continue to do so at a 173-110-7 rate


Chiefs vs. Patriots

  • Record says one team is better, but oddsmakers say the other team is, go with the oddsmakers 255-231 (Patriots)
    • Getting 3.5 or more despite more wins
  • KC is 5-0 SU with third best margin of cover at +8.3
  • Kansas City over 3-2 but by 9.9, third in NFL
  • Road anti-splits angle that says go with road teams winless on road and undefeated at home is 114-108 (Kansas City)
  • New England very sharp play
  • Tom Brady 28-9-3 home favorites of 6.5 or less
  • Andy Reid 4-0 against the spread versus Belichick in prime time
  • Justin Houston, one of KC’s best pass rushers is out
  • KC also without star S Eric Berry
  • New England should have all banged up skilled position players playing, including Josh Gordon

Show odds

Biggest consensus in term of percentage of bets: Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh

Biggest consensus in term of percentage of money: Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Minnesota, Jacksonville

Sharp versus square metrics: New England, Jacksonville

Biggest line moves: Chicago from P to -5, Washington -2.5 to +1, Cleveland +1.5 to -1.5

NFL Picks and Predictions Vikings vs. Bills Vegas Odds

Thanks to Performance Gap Analysis picks, the DNA of Handicapping, this is easily the biggest Sunday for NFL picks this season, maybe in years not just for Joe Duffy’s Picks but the entire betting industry! We have four Wise Guys up in the NFL including the NFC Total of the Year and the NFC East Game of the Year. Performance Gap Analysis will change your life. We have three Majors plays. So it is quality and quantity, sides and totals. Get three Major plays as well. That is seven winners from the experienced proven superstar. Get them all at OffshoreInsiders.com

Also a Sunday a Perfect Play side is on the New York Giants vs. Dallas from The Great One Stevie Vincent. Perfect Play, which means an angle that is 100 percent and involves a minimum of 12 games. We always unlock the angle inside the play. This is one of the most feared bets in Las Vegas! It is at OffshoreInsiders.com