Of course we win in football yet again! We go 5-3, which is horrible for us and are 42-14 in football. JDP is Sunday, three Wise Guys, four Majors. Told ya. Nobody has dominated any sport the way Joe Duffy has the NFL for decades. Get the picks now
Cardinals vs. Vikings
- Arizona under 4-1 at -5.9
- Double-digit dogs with winning percentage of .250 or less are 120-87-4
- Vikings expected to get Dalvin Cook back at RB but will be on pitch count
- Vikings 25-10 home under Mike Zimmer
Chargers vs. Browns
- Road anti-splits angle that says go with road teams winless on road and undefeated at home is 144-108 (Chargers)
- Mountain or Pacific Time Zone teams playing at 1 ET are a go-against of 172-123-5 (Cleveland)
- Go against teams off win as a home underdog is 406-318 (San Diego)
- Browns three overtime games in first five
- First Energy Stadium, No. 1 under stadium, going under 74-47-1
- Possible winds of 10 mph or ore
- Winds at 10 mph or stronger go UNDER 439-351-10
- Chargers banged up with WR Travis Benjamin and DE Joey Bosa both out
Bears vs. Dolphins
- Miami QB Ryan Tannehill is questionable
- Brock Osweiler would start
- Teams that blew a 17-point or more lead and lost by double-digits are a go AGAINST of 11-3 in this rare situation. That says to FADE Miami Dolphins and go with Chicago
- But, but teams that return home after blowing double-digit lead after three quarters are 59-40 (Dolphins)
- Bears 3-1 against the spread with league best +9.9 margin of cover
- But teams with at least three wins and off their first two losses bounce back at home to a 19-14 against the spread (Bears)
- Fading home underdogs off consecutive losses is 104-78 against the spread (Chicago)
- Dolphins worst run-blocking team according to Football Focus metrics versus top run defense in Chicago
- With Dolphins bet on inconsistency and off consecutive losses, take them as big home underdogs
- Miami very banged up on defense
Panthers vs. Redskins
- Road teams winless on road, decent at home SU are 179-120-8
- Teams off a 20-point or more loss 406-339-17 (Redskins)
- 61 percent of Cam Newtown’s road starts have gone under at 36-23
- Panthers should have TE Greg Olsen back
- Washington banged up at skilled positions as WR Jamison Crowder and RB Chris Thompson out and WR Paul Richardson game-time decision
Colts vs. NY Jets
- Andrew Luck 12-1 against the spread off a spread and against the spread loss
- Jets could be down as many as three starters on defense, plus RB Isaiah Crowell
Steelers vs. Bengals
- Cincinnati over 4-1 by +9.7
- Fading underdogs off 21 point or more wins is 111-84 against the spread (bet on Bengals)
- Ben Roethlisberger 10-5 SU, 10-4-1 against the spread as underdogs to a team with a winning percentage of better than .500
- 5-1 SU and against the spread as dog to Bengals
- Pittsburgh is 7-1 SU at Paul Brown Stadium and 15-2 SU on the road to Marvin Lewis
- Bengals walking wounded, check updated injuries
- Bengals WR John Ross is doubtful
Buccaneers vs. Falcons
- Atlanta is 1-4 against the spread with a league-worst -7.2 margin over cover
- Tampa over 4-0 by league leading 13.4 points per game
- Atlanta over 4-1 by 8.8 points per game
- Jameis Winston starts at QB for Tampa
- Falcons QB Matt Ryan 6-17 as favorite of FG or less
- Divisional underdogs off a by 48-36 (Tampa)
- Falcons with down four starters on defense, three out for year Deion Jones, Ricardo Allen, Keanu Neal, plus DT Grady Jarrett likely out
- Tampa is likely to get the turn of OJ Howard at TE
- Falcons vulnerable to deep ball and Tampa throws deep often
- Tampa league-worst defense allowing 9.4 passing yards per attempt, 13 TD passes, and 358 passing yards per game, all dead last
- First time all season, Falcons will likely have same starting line-up in back-to-back games
Seahawks vs. Raiders (London)
- Seattle QB Russell Wilson 8-1 SU, 6-2-1 against the spread off home loss
- Favorites in London 14-7 against the spread
- Many advanced metrics on Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions suggest Raiders OL matches up well to Raiders
- Drizzle expected in London and 13 mph
Bills vs. Texans
- Go against teams off win as a home underdog is 406-318 (Houston)
- Houston QB Deshaun Watson upgraded to probable
- Non-playoff teams from previous season that open up as double-digit favorites are go against of 120-86 (Bills)
- Lamar Miller will return at RB for Texans
- Advanced metrics say two of the worst OLs in football
- 10 mph winds
Rams vs. Broncos
- Denver 0-4-1 -5.9
- Big favorites in non-divisional games versus good rushing teams goes under at 35-8
- Temps in the 20 and it is snowing
- Rams Jared Goff has never started in game with temps freezing in his college or NFL career
- Twice below 40 in the NFL, losing both and scoring a combined 13 points
- Denver 0-2 home underdogs of seven or more, failing against the spread by 14.5 points average
- Betting the team total over is 14-7 against Denver under Vance Joseph and betting on Rams team total over under McVay is 16-5
Jaguars vs. Cowboys
- Dallas under 4-1, top under margin at -6.8
- Jags since week 1 win are -8 in turnover margin, including -3 each of the last two games
- Pokes without Sean Lee
- Jags without Leonard Fournette
- Jaguars star CB Jalen Ramsey upgraded to probable
Ravens vs. Titans
- Baltimore 3-2 +8.6, second in league
- Tennessee under 3-2, second biggest under margin at -6.1
- Titans 69 percent of bets, third biggest consensus
- Above .500 teams in October or later as home underdogs are a go-against of 71-59
INDIANAPOLIS +2.5 NY Jets
Another road team off a road loss angle is 130-73. Bad teams that have been covering the spread continue to do so at a 173-110-7 rate
SNF
Chiefs vs. Patriots
- Record says one team is better, but oddsmakers say the other team is, go with the oddsmakers 255-231 (Patriots)
- Getting 3.5 or more despite more wins
- KC is 5-0 SU with third best margin of cover at +8.3
- Kansas City over 3-2 but by 9.9, third in NFL
- Road anti-splits angle that says go with road teams winless on road and undefeated at home is 114-108 (Kansas City)
- New England very sharp play
- Tom Brady 28-9-3 home favorites of 6.5 or less
- Andy Reid 4-0 against the spread versus Belichick in prime time
- Justin Houston, one of KC’s best pass rushers is out
- KC also without star S Eric Berry
- New England should have all banged up skilled position players playing, including Josh Gordon
Show odds
Biggest consensus in term of percentage of bets: Minnesota, Atlanta, Pittsburgh
Biggest consensus in term of percentage of money: Pittsburgh, Atlanta, Minnesota, Jacksonville
Sharp versus square metrics: New England, Jacksonville
Biggest line moves: Chicago from P to -5, Washington -2.5 to +1, Cleveland +1.5 to -1.5
