Online Gamblers Should Chalk Up Last Year as an Anomaly
Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)
It’s no secret that the public had a sensational year last
year in the NFL as favorites covered at an unprecedented pace. Far from luck,
we had our highest number of favorites ever last year, but still fell short of
our unparallel standards. After many a discussion with experienced handicappers
and professional gamblers, I am even more convinced sharp players should stay
the course. Among our Golden Rules of
successful sports betting: never forget the oddsmakers are one step ahead of
the masses.
There are few certainties in life, but one is that
Joeybagofdonuts will love betting chalks more today than yesterday, but not
half as much as tomorrow. He will be very happy to oblige and press his luck. Sportsbooks
will very likely need underdogs to cover more than ever and one of the most
overlooked realities in sports betting is that oddsmakers know the betting
tendencies of the public and that very much factors into the point spread.
This is not to suggest one go to the other extreme and
blindly bet underdogs or even consciously pick a disproportionate number, but
last year’s results in no way represent a new trend. Our advice is simple: stay
the course.
Those of us who believe in systems, and many sharp players
do, generally have a similar basis for weighing the reliability of data. We use either return on investment (simply
how much money you would have won betting a system at one-unit per play) or
z-score (accepted mathematical formula that measures sample size and
percentage). We then see how it holds up over time: that is most of us agree a
system with a 4.7 z-score over 15 years is better than one with the same or even
slightly higher score over eight years if the latter system is not sustained
over ten or 15 seasons.
However, even the long-term proven systems are still
slanted a bit on recent performance as to compensate for changes in the game
that may strengthen or weaken the effectiveness of an angle. But I raised a red
flag when one of the top experts in artificial intelligence in sports betting
told me he would slant even more credence to very recent data, believing
outdated, but still statistically significant systems cost him last year.
We believe unless he has a change of heart before the year
gets into full swing, he may rue that decision.
Simply put, the oddsmakers need the dogs to rebound—and they set the
line. The sportsbooks more times than
not get what they want. Last year was a
major exception. We find the chances of it happening two years in a row very
remote.
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