Fantasy Tip of the Week – RB Rankings
By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb
The key position you need to focus on to have a championship fantasy football team is running back. Running backs are the core of almost any winning team for two reasons: They usually score the most points of any player, and they are normally the most reliable players. In almost every league I draft, I will take RBs with my first two picks because they are that important. In my previous article, I gave you a breakdown on what your overall draft should look like, but this article will focus strictly on which RB you should target and when.
The Big 3
Larry Johnson, Kansas City
After taking over for the injured Priest Holmes midway through last season, all LJ did was set the league on fire and become the most dominant player in fantasy. With Holmes either not playing or on the bench this year, Johnson has a shot at breaking the single-season rushing record if he can stay healthy. He is the clear No. 1 pick.
Shaun Alexander, Seattle
The reigning league MVP should put up similar numbers to last year, and if you have the No.2 pick, you should feel lucky to grab such a great player. Alexander is the most consistent RB to come along in years, and he plays on a good team, so he should be churning out the yards late in games to close them out.
LaDanian Tomlinson, San Diego
I would say at least 75 percent of fantasy drafts this year are going to have LJ, Alexander and LT going in the top 3 spots. Tomlinson was the top-rated RB going into last year, and while he had a good year he has been passed up by the top two. San Diego might struggle this season, so LT might not have as many rushing opportunities as the other two, but he is a much better receiver than LJ and Alexander, so if your league counts receptions and/or receiving yards, you can’t go wrong with him.
The Next 3
Edgerrin James, Arizona
As I stated in my last article, the top 7 picks in my mind are the big 3 RBs, Peyton Manning and these next 3 RBs. These three RBs aren’t in any particular order, so be happy to get any one of these guys if you’re in the 4-7 slots in the first round. The Edge moves to the desert of Arizona and should continue to be a top-flight producer even though he moves away from the high-powered of offense of Indianapolis. Arizona actually might have as good a passing game as Indy this year, with Kurt Warner at QB and top 10 receivers Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin to take the focus off of James. The Cardinals also have a very good offensive line, so Edge should be just as good as he’s ever been.
Tiki Barber, NY Giants
No back has more heart than Tiki, and the past two years he has turned into a premier RB. His production is close to that of the top 3, but the only reason he is grouped lower is because of his age. Tiki is 31 this year, and most RBs really start to lose it once they hit the big 3-0. As I said, Tiki has a ton of heart and will always do everything he can to get on the field, but this should really be his last top-level year. If you’re drafting in a keeper league, I’d move Tiki down in your rankings.
Clinton Portis, Washington
Portis is the one back I really see making a noticeable improvement this year, and the reason is that the ‘Skins have hired former KC offensive coordinator Al Saunders. Saunders was the engineer of KC’s running game for the past few years and turned Priest Holmes (and Larry Johnson last year) into a fantasy force. The plan is to use Portis exactly the way Holmes was used the past few seasons, so if he can stay healthy Portis could put up top 3 numbers. The only X mark on Portis’ resume is he does get nicked up a lot, so make sure you draft Ladell Betts, his backup, in a middle-to-late round.
Potential, Potential, Potential
I will rank these guys in order of preference, with a note about each. Remember, once the top 7 are gone you can start to pick these guys and feel just fine about it. If you are at the end of the first round (pick 8 or later) go ahead and draft a RB here and then assuming it’s a snake draft (where you’ll pick near the beginning of the 2nd round), take the next best RB. There are no QBs or WRs who are as good a value here as having two good RBs.
Steven Jackson, St. Louis – Look for Jackson to have a career year this year due to two things: Marshall Faulk is now out for the year (and possibly his career), and new coach Scott Linehan wants to focus on the run.
Rudi Johnson, Cincinnati – Rudi has slimmed down and wants to take a step up to the top level of RBs. He has been very productive and reliable thus far, but the only drawback to him is that he isn’t much of a receiver and the Bengals love his backup, Chris Perry.
Kevin Jones, Detroit – I probably have him ranked a lot higher than most other experts, but I really think Mike Martz will do wonders with him. He sees him as his next Marshall Faulk and is going to do everything he can to get him the ball. If Detroit can get decent QB play out of Jon Kitna (or Josh McCown), KJ is going to be a stud.
LaMont Jordan, Oakland – After having watched Jordan play in college and play behind Curtis Martin for a couple of years with the Jets, I knew he’d be a great player if given the opportunity. He got that shot last year with the Raiders, and much like Kevin Jones just needs good QB play to turn him into a star.
Ronnie Brown, Miami – With Ricky Williams heading to Canada to do whatever it is Ricky does, Brown gets his shot as the lead RB for the Fins. Coach Nick Saban has big plans for Brown and needs him to be the complement to the passing game he is trying to implement with Daunte Culpepper. There’s a reason Miami took him so high in the draft last year, and this year we’ll see why.
Julius Jones, Dallas – JJ could be a superstar if only Bill Parcells would let him. Parcells seems to have a soft spot in his heart for Marion Barber III and plans to give him more carries than he should. Watching Jones in his rookie year I saw a lot of the same things Walter Payton brought to the table and thought he would be incredible in his sophomore season. This is a situation to monitor closely in the preseason. If Jones looks like he’ll get 25 carries per game, I’d rank him even higher. If not, he stays here or moves down if Barber gets more carries.
Cadillac Williams, Tampa Bay – Cadillac had a great rookie year and is very tough. The only reason I have him this low is the presence of Michael Pittman and the fact that Williams is a little on the smallish side. He is a great runner, but I have a feeling he’s going to be injury-prone once he takes a lot of pounding.
Brian Westbrook, Philadelphia – Westbrook is like Tomlinson-lite. If you’re in a league where receiving is important, Westbrook moves to the top of this group. With the departure of Terrell Owens, coach Andy Reid has stated he plans to run the ball a lot more and Westbrook will be the beneficiary, IF he can stay healthy.
Willis McGahee, Buffalo – McGahee is just as talented as those above him, but he has a lot of question marks coming into this year. His primary problem is lack of good QB play. Without a good passing game, teams are going to stack eight in the box and shut Willis down. If JP Losman can take some pressure off McGahee, then he can return to the level he was at going into last year.
Domanick Davis, Houston – Davis has potential to move to the top of this list, but like the others here he has issues to overcome. The first issue is he is currently injured and is a question mark to begin the season. The second is lack of a passing game, much like McGahee. If David Carr can get a solid connection going with Andre Johnson and new WR Eric Moulds, then Davis should be a top-10 guy.
Jamal Lewis, Baltimore – Potential, potential, potential. Every year Lewis is ranked highly, and every year except one he has not lived up to it. He’s either been hurt or in jail and now he has competition in Mike Anderson. Lewis has the skills to be a top-3 guy but he is really a question mark this year.
Reggie Bush, New Orleans – He will probably be overvalued in your drafts and will go much higher than he should. There happens to be an All-Pro back already in the New Orleans backfield going by the name of Deuce. He’s going to take a lot of the carries Bush should get, but like Westbrook Bush will be much more valuable in a league with receptions and/or a big emphasis on receiving yards.
The Rookies
All of these guys are in similar situations, currently the backup but with poor performance or injury by the starting RB, they could shine:
Laurence Maroney, New England
Joseph Addai, Indianapolis
DeAngelo Williams, Carolina
LenDale White, Tennessee
Keep an eye on their situations during the preseason and try to grab them in a middle round if it looks like they’ll help you. These are also guys to grab as backups to the main guy. I often like to grab a tandem of guys, and then I’m guaranteed to have the starter every week.
The Best Of The Rest
All of these guys have issues: age, uncertain playing time or just not as good as what they once were. These should be guys you target as your third back. These are in preferential order.
Cedric Benson, Chicago — assuming he wins the job over Thomas Jones
Tatum Bell, Denver — assuming he wins the job over Ron Dayne
Chester Taylor, Minnesota — I like him as a sleeper
Warrick Dunn, Atlanta — bound to breakdown sometime and has T.J. Duckett to share carries with
Reuben Droughns, Cleveland – has the job but just isn’t that great.
Willie Parker, Pittsburgh – Good for yards but not for TDs.
Deuce McAllister, New Orleans – Moves way up if Bush doesn’t sign soon but will still be a decent 3rd RB for your team even if he splits time.
DeShaun Foster, Carolina – Productive when he plays but has injury issues and DeAngelo Williams to deal with.
Frank Gore, San Francisco – Splits carries with Kevan Barlow but should take over the starting job by the end of the year.
Dominic Rhodes, Indianapolis – Will start out with the job but Joseph Addai is more talented.
Thomas Jones, Chicago – Will probably lose his job to Benson, but if he starts he moves up to a top-15 guy.
Fred Taylor, Jacksonville – Avoid if possible, but he has a shot to be productive. He’s just so unreliable.
Ahman Green, Green Bay – How the mighty have fallen. He was a top-two RB two years ago and is now fighting to stay on the field and to keep his job. Age, a bad offense and Samkon Gado are his problems.
Ron Dayne, Denver – Will probably back up Bell, but should he get the job he moves up to the top 15. Denver always gets great RB production. I’d draft the Bell-Dayne tandem and hope for the best.
Curtis Martin, NY Jets – Stay away. Stay far away. He’s half the player he once was and will get picked much earlier than he should.
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