OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Sunday NBA winner on the Miami Heat (-2) at Boston on ABC TV.

Reasoning: Doc Rivers’ Celtics are a mentally tough team that has certainly been able to step it up at times recently in big spots but I just don’t see them getting it done today. First place in the Eastern Conference is on the line and with the way LeBron and his teammates have struggled at times it’s quite astounding they can be in this position.

The Heat have not been the greatest team ever which some believed they would be but for them to still be at the top of the conference with all of the early losing shows truly how great this team is. King James, Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh are as good of a threesome as there is out there. Boston isn’t chopped liver with Rondo, Pierce, Allen and Garnett that’s certainly for sure but they are not as talented as the Heat and after blowing that last game to the Lakers should be up against it tonight.

Erik Spoelstra’s boys are flying high right now and are the best team in the NBA. Playing in Beantown at the Boston Garden against this experienced Boston team is not going to be easy at all but at this near pick-em price it’s still a deal.

The crowd will be rocking for this litmus type test and I think that the C’s will compete for the duration. But the bottom line is that Miami is the class of the NBA and the Heat should be able to beat anybody anywhere right now and to get them and pretty much only have to win the game in order to grab the cash is a bit too good to pass up, period.

The pick: Miami Heat from the real Matt Rivers.

For more information: A high quality 3-1 yesterday including yet another 400,000* winner on Nebraska, with ease. Right around 500,000* of profit on Saturday alone and now I continue the assault with a pair of winners on the hardwoods including a rare bomb in the NBA.

The game may stink but who cares as it all counts the same in the end. A third straight 400,000* winner is here involving Washington and Cleveland along with a 300,000* Providence and Connecticut. 2-0? For sure. Rivers entire card is up

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Friday night pick on the New York Knicks (+3) against the LA Lakers.

Reasoning: Obviously Kobe and the Lakers are better than the Knicks but New York has shown some signs of life this season and they are catching Phil Jackson’s boys in a tough, tough spot.

Los Angeles just tangled with the aggressive Celtics last night and are on a really tough back-to-back. Mike D’Antoni’s style has always been to push the pace and that could wreak a little bit of havoc on the potentially fatigued visitors from the left coast. The size of LA with Gasol, Odom and Bynum is never easy to defend but if the Knicks can get out on the break that advantage can be somewhat nullified. Ray Felton has had a breakthrough season running up and down the court feeding Stoudemire and guys like Wilson Chandler, Landry Fields and Danillo Gallinari have been pretty solid as well.

Both Amare Stoudemire and D’Antoni know a ton about the Lakers thanks to the days in Phoenix so nothing should really come as a surprise today. The Garden crowd will be rocking and in this litmus test type of a scenario, ala the win against the Heat a few weeks ago, I can see the New Yorkers rise to the occasion and get this thing done as the Lakers run out of gas a little in the end.

Top expert pick on this game: New York from Matt Rivers

For more information: It’s going to be a monster weekend and it all begins tonight with an Ivy League lock for the ages. One 7:00 game that is going to prove to be half a dozen points off, yes half a dozen! That last line pretty much about sums it up. Get Rivers picks

Here is a Margin of Cover (MOC) breakdown. Renamed “sweat barometer” in Chad Millman of ESPN’s column, MOC is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread.

Many sports handicappers believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams.

Duquesne and Texas remain at the top while the bottom feeders are Central Florida, Michigan State, and Texas Tech.

The following teams have “sweat barometers” of at least (+4.5):

Team                          ATS Record                          Margin of Cover

Duquesne                    12-3-1                                     6.5

Texas                           15-4                                         6.3

George Mason           18-5                                         4.8

San Francisco            14-5-1                                     4.7

Now to the best teams to fade, at least according to the sweater.

Team                          ATS Record                          Margin of Cover

Central Florida            5-11                                         -5.5

Michigan State            7-15                                         -5.4

Texas Tech                  6-13                                         -5.1

Ohio                            6-13-1                                     -4.8

South Alabama        7-12                                         -4.5

In the NBA, just three teams have MOC of 1.9 or better: Philadelphia (2.9), Chicago (2.6), and Memphis (1.9).

Two teams are head and shoulders above the rest in the fade area: Cleveland (-4.0) and Utah (-2.4).

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a winner Thursday and it is on the LA Lakers (+2.5) at Boston.

Boston seems a tad easy here at home don’t they? This game reminds me of the other night when the superior Hawks at Philips Arena were laying a similar number of four to the decent but nothing more 76ers. We all know what happened there as the dog won by a bazillion as the oddsmaker knew what was up there and he knows what’s up here as well.

Doc’s boys have been really, really good this season and may represent the Eastern Conference when all is said and done. Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen and Rajon Rondo form a ferocious foursome that is experienced and hard to guard. These guys have been more consistent than the Lakers and frankly better than the Lakers this season. If the number was half a dozen plus I wouldn’t have been surprised in the slightest and that is telling me a ton. I can once again see Joe Square be all over the Celtics believing they are so easy and they will win going away and blah, blah, blah. After all Boston just went to Staples and took care of business therefore this thing back east will be a cakewalk so says the novice.

I have the feeling that tonight is where Kobe and the Lakers get some revenge for the thumping they took last week at home by these same Celtics. Los Angeles still has a height advantage with Gasol, Bynum and Odom and even if they aren’t as tough and physically strong maybe as the Celtics bigs this is a great spot for them to man up and show the league how this team is not done and can win another title with or without the potential of Carmelo Anthony coming to town.

The Lake Show are still the defending champions and a team that has failed a few times thus far in a big game spot. They lost to the C’s and Heat at home and I really think that going on the road against these teams is going to prove fruitful for Phil Jackson’s squad and as the dog I am more than fine with that while backing the Black Mamba in a big game spot.

Top expert pick on this game: LA Lakers

For more information: When you’re a four-point dog and are up by 32 at the half and win outright by 34 you feel pretty good!

It’s now a 10-3 overall run after the 76ers did what they did. This comes on the heels of the 13-4 season ending football run and I’m now ready to raise that bar and smack around the Crookie one more time. A pair of hump day winners including a major 400,000* release from Boulder between a couple of struggling clubs in Texas A&M and Colorado along with a bonus 300,000* with Louisville-Notre Dame. Tuck the kids and wife in, grab a few cold ones and put on the U tonight and watch the cash roll in. Click now to purchase

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a point spread prediction Wednesday on the big North Carolina-Duke rivalry. It is on North Carolina (+10) at Duke.

Duke at Cameron Indoor certainly can whack any opponent and that includes rival North Carolina. But I will give Roy Williams’ squad some credit for suddenly looking pretty darn good. The first half of the season was fairly underachieving and it looked as if we were having somewhat of a repeat of last season’s debacle. But recently Harrison Barnes and the fellas have stepped things up and after winning five straight and 10 of their last 11 why not grab around double digits?

Duke was last season’s National Champion and with Kyrie Irving coming in probably deserved to be the top ranked team in the nation. But Coach K’s boys have not been great all of the time and there have been some chinks in the armor. They are still better than their Tobacco Road enemies even with Jon Scheyer leaving and the injury to Kyrie Irving but the gap has certainly narrowed a ton since last season and with the way the Heels have revved things up of late I’ll take my chances on them tonight plus this handsome number. UNC is 17-5 overall and boasts the 7-1 ACC mark. The players should be a lot more confident and prepared for the Dookies and the Cameron Crazies this season and in revenge after last season’s whackings are going to compete in this thing.

I’m not thinking the North Carolina program is all the way back and ready to win this game by any means but the Blue Devils aren’t invincible at all right now and with a whole lot of confidence I’ll grab the healthy sum of points with a pretty good team and take my chances.

Top expert pick on this game: North Carolina.

For more information: When you’re a four-point dog and are up by 32 at the half and win outright by 34 you feel pretty good!

It’s now a 10-3 overall run after the 76ers did what they did. This comes on the heels of the 13-4 season ending football run and I’m now ready to Raise that Bar and smack around the Crookie one more time. A pair of humpday winners including a major 400,000* release from Boulder between a couple of struggling clubs in Texas A&M and Colorado along with a bonus 300,000* with Louisville-Notre Dame. Tuck the kids and wife in, grab a few cold ones and put on the U tonight and watch the cash roll in. Get Matt Rivers picks

In mere days, pitchers and catchers will report to MLB spring training. That means it’s probably a good time to examine baseball betting futures. We know who the major contenders are – the Phillies in the National League and the Red Sox in the American League – but who are the top sleepers and busts?

BETTING SLEEPERS

St. Louis Cardinals (World Series odds: 20 to 1)

The Cardinals relinquished the National League Central to the Cincinnati Reds last season but we shouldn’t consider them down for the count just yet. Their one-two pitching punch of Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter is still as good as any in the game, at least holding a candle to Halladay/Lee. Albert Pujols in a contract year is terrifying. He also has support from Matt Holliday and maybe Lance Berkman, who could squeeze out one more good season since opponents will pitch around the other two stars. Maybe the Cards can compete for a Wild-Card berth?

Detroit Tigers (World Series odds: 30 to 1)

The Tigers, Twins and White Sox have taken turns owning the American League Central over the last several years. Could the door be open for Detroit to return to glory? Justin Verlander is a great staff anchor and Max Scherzer could be just as good this season; he dominated in the second half of 2010. Miguel Cabrera should have better lineup support this year now that the Tigers have added Victor Martinez; Austin Jackson should score a ton of runs at the top of this lineup. Detroit isn’t the deepest team, however, so remember – this is still a sportsbook sleeper, not a favorite.
Milwaukee Brewers (World Series odds: 100 to 1)

What’s with the 100 to 1 odds? The Brewers could be a steal in that position. Offense has never been the problem in recent years. Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder (contract year), Corey Hart, Casey McGehee, and Rickie Weeks all have 30-homer ability. Pitching is what held the Brewers back in the winnable NL Central. Suddenly, they’ve added Zack Greinke and underrated Shaun Marcum to a rotation that already had Yovani Gallardo. Rand Wolf makes for a fine No. 4. This team could seriously make the playoffs.

BETTING BUSTS

New York Yankees (World Series odds: 5 to 1)

Yep, I said it. The Yankees will be a bust this season. Sure, their lineup is still dangerous with Alex Rodriguez, Mark Teixeira, Robinson Cano and so on. But A-Rod, Derek Jeter and Jorge Posada are getting long in the tooth. More importantly, pitching could be a major concern. C.C. Sabathia and Phil Hughes are nice to have but who knows what A.J. Burnett will do? And who will fill the Yanks’ last two rotation spots with Andy Pettitte retiring?

San Diego Padres (World Series odds: 75 to 1)

At least the books have already clued in and bumped the Padres’ odds down. San Diego was a win away from becoming the 2010 season’s biggest MLB betting surprise and making the playoffs. But, sadly, I think that miracle run will just falsely inflate fans’ expectations this season. They’ll find a way to churn out good pitching with Mat Latos anchoring the staff but how on Earth will the Padres score runs with Adrian Gonzalez gone? This could be the majors’ lowest-scoring team in 2011.

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a free Tuesday college basketball pick is on Georgia (-4.5) to Xavier.

Reasoning: Xavier had been playing some really good ball for a while there and the victory on the road at Richmond by a billion was extremely impressive. They had won seven straight at that point but the last few games have not been so stellar and traveling to Athens against a pretty good 16-6 Georgia team is going to be a tough tough task.

The Musketeers lost in surprising fashion to an extremely mediocre Charlotte squad and did not look very good over the weekend at home in the non-cover against St. Louis. Of course a game or two isn’t the end all and Jamel McLean and Tu Holloway are high quality ballplayers but I’m just not so sure that the X-Men or the Atlantic 10 as a whole are that good this season.

Mark Fox has done an amazing job in a short period of time with this Bulldog program. The crappy days of the Dennis Felton era are now long gone and the corrupt days of Jim Harrick and his nonsense is as well. Fox has brought legitimacy to the program and it’s not like there aren’t players that call Stegman Coliseum their home. Trey Thompkins is going to be a first round draft choice and others like Gerald Robinson, Jeremy Ware and Dustin Price have really played very well and are very good. The last game left little to be desired as it took overtime to beat a terrible Auburn squad but I’m a believer in UGA right now and do believe they are a legitimate top 25 type team.

Xavier will compete because they pretty much always do but it’s a weird spot for them to travel to Athens and in the end I think it will be an unsuccessful one against the Dawgs.

Top expert pick on this game: Georgia.

For more information: A 300,000* winner from the Association is what’s on the docket and it’s a play that pretty much can’t miss from Hotlanta. The superior Hawks are at home and hosting the surging 76ers. What gives? I know, do you? Tuesday’s card is up

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA lock pick on the Golden State Warriors (-5) hosting Phoenix.

Reasoning: Steve Nash and the Suns have been looking better of late and the victories in three of their last four games show just that. Vince Carter has looked rejuvenated at times and all in all the Suns are alright once again. Granted the window has completely shut in terms of doing anything major but they are at least showing some sign of life unlike a few weeks back.

Meanwhile the Warriors have also started to play some good ball and to be honest with you are the better team of these two teams and especially when at home. Monta Ellis is a baller who can score with the best of them and others like Stephen Curry, Dorell Wright and David Lee are quality ballplayers. The Warriors always had some talent but their ragged up and down style never really leant well to winning enough. It still may not be good enough in the always difficult west but these Warriors have now won three in a row and are a little scary. They just beat the red hot Bulls after downing the Bucks and Jazz and have been victorious in seven of their last ten by the bay.

There will certainly be some points in this game as the large total indicates. Both teams will look to get out on the break and do their thing. But without Amare Stoudemire on the Suns anymore I just feel that the Warriors at home are the definite better team. State lost at home to the Suns earlier in the season and do have a measure of revenge tonight.

I’m not saying this Golden State team is as good as the one that rose up and beat Dirk and the Mavericks in the playoffs a few seasons back but I like what I see from this current outfit and will back them tonight.

The pick: Golden State

For more information: The 400,000* Packers were sweet as sugar and the recent numbers are fairly staggering. The NFL may be done and football as a whole is done but if you think I’m letting my guard down even a lick than you’re crazy! Some faux cappers fade away into oblivion with their carnival barking because the big sales somewhat go away in this business right now but I do the exact opposite and put the pedal even more to the medal and produce the best product known to man.

A pair of plays today including another 400,000* in the MAAC between Loyola and Siena plus a bonus 200,000* The Citadel-NC Greensboro. It may not be Duke against North Carolina but it all amounts to the same in the end and that’s another 2-0 sweep of the board! Get Rivers’ winners

Bodog has set odds on which commercial will get the highest ratings.  They have won the prestigious Sportsbook of the Year award by OffshoreInsiders.com

Super Bowl XLV Specials – Which Super Bowl commercial will have a higher rating on USA Today’s annual Ad Meter?

So who are your favorites? We’d love to hear.

It’s Super Bowl XLV, the Packers vs. Steelers. Using a different database than our previous breakdown, we look at the game from another key standpoint of the spread investor.

The nation’s best sports handicappers make the most of these key performance indicators in predicting the against the spread picks with the performance gap breakdowns.

The 2011 Super Bowl betting odds on this contest are Green Bay (-3) with a total of 44.5 or 45.

Contrasting the yards per rush figures on offense, the facts give the edge to the Pittsburgh Steelers by .2.

Insofar as passing yards per completion on offense, the computations favor the Steelers by .4.

So many professional bettors make the most of yards per point. Offensively the more productive numbers are owned by Pittsburgh by the slimmest .1 margin.

Of the many sports handicapping picks out there, the premier sports service advice on this contest is What a long, great run it was again. No handicapper has ever dominated any sport—decade after decade—the way GodsTips has the NFL going back to our scorephone days. Another sensational day yesterday makes us 67-40 overall, with several moneyline underdogs. With Wise Guys, we are 31-14.

Get the Super Bowl side. Get the first half total and six proposition bets that are widely available. Get a college basketball Wise Guy as well All the winners are up.

Defensively the more tightfisted unit against the run according to yards per rush is Pittsburgh by a stunning 1.5.

Yards per reception digits favor the Steelers as well by 1.1.

Calculations on the yards per point math gives the upper hand to the Green Bay Packers by 2.2.

Now to net turnover margin, the better squad has been Pittsburgh by three.

Yards per point is determined by diving total yards by number of points. Offensively a lower number is considered more efficient. On defense, a higher number is better.

Spread betting trends (all records are against the spread): Pittsburgh is 9-1 in their last 10 playoff games, 16-5 as an underdog of 0.5-3.0, 34-16 as underdog.

Green Bay is 19-6 after allowing less than 15 points in their previous game.

Over/under trends: Pittsburgh over 16-5 playoffs. Green Bay under 8-3 off win.