It’s starts out the ESPN college basketball schedule and it starts out the winning weekend.

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers Saturday is on Pittsburgh (-3.5) at St. John’s.

Reasoning: I am a huge St. John’s fan and I love what Steve Lavin has brought to the table and in such a small amount of time. The Red Storm are not a fluke at all as one upset could be deemed that but game after game after game from Georgetown to Duke to West Virginia on the road and on and on this team has manned up and proven to be a very good and legit team.  The Johnnies are an experienced senior laden team that just continues to grow and get better with every passing day. Today they are a home dog, which is never terrible, but it is my opinion that they have met their match and are up against it against the clearly superior Panthers.

Jamie Dixon just continues to impress the heck out of me. His teams never seem to be the most talented and loaded of squads but yet season after season they overachieve to the max. The Panthers have lost a fair amount of pro talent recently in guys like Aaron Gray and DeJuan Blair among others causing the doubters to come out in the beginning of almost every season and yet the coach almost always has his boys there at the top.

We are currently looking at yet another very well disciplined Pitt squad that just does not beat itself. Gibbs, Wannamaker and McGhee have led the way and even with Gibbs out this 24-2 squad was still able to go on the road at West Virginia and Villanova and win big-time ballgames. How many teams without their main man can pull that off? The last game against South Florida wasn’t great but it was still a fairly easy 12 point victory in the end which great teams seem to do.

Pitt is actually perfect on the road this season as the two losses came at home to Tennessee and Notre Dame and with Gibbs expected to return I just don’t see Lou Carnesecca’s former team being able to put another quality notch in their belt.

The Johnnies will fight and stay in this thing but Pittsburgh is just too good right now.

Top expert pick on this game:  It’s almost becoming too easy as the lone play on Friday, a 300,000* on Princeton, cashed that ticket once again in pretty much wire-to-wire fashion. I’ve now bashed that Crookie for 1.7 million* of profit in the last four days alone, all winning, which includes the 6-1 overall run.

Am I satisfied? Heck no! Today is the day of all days and just another example of how I am the best ‘capper there is on this entire planet. Four monster plays including the most powerful and biggest gun in my arsenal, a 500,000* bomb involving Washington and Arizona. Bonus 300,000* also in the Pac-10 on Washington State and Arizona State plus a pair of 200,000* winners including Seton Hall-Marquette and Northwestern-Indiana. I am red hot and as locked and loaded today as I have ever been, and I mean ever. Get Rivers historic card

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a pick Friday is on Penn (-2) at Brown.

I’m not going to write a novel here because this one play is good but certainly nothing that I am going to rave for days about. Penn has dropped four in a row and is most definitely not the team from the 1990’s with Matt Maloney and Jerome Allen but I do like the Quakers this season as they have improved from the garbage they were last year. Zach Rosen, Jack Eggleston and Tyler Bernardini are pretty good ballplayers and even on the road I definitely believe that Penn is better than Brown. Therefore such a small number is a decent enough value. Allen is now the coach and has actually done all right, even if the 9-12 record hasn’t fully shown it.

Penn has lost four in a row, which is never good, but it’s not as if they have been dreadful by any means. These guys did struggle a bit in the last two losses at Columbia and Cornell but the previous pair of games were solid enough covers against the conference’ elite in Harvard and Princeton. An upside is there and more times than not that upside will prevail in this spot against what is still not a very good Brown team, no matter how improved.

The Bears have looked better this season as well and they have won half of their last four games. But when push comes to shove they are just not as talented as Penn and in order to cover it pretty much takes just an outright victory and I’m thinking that is not going to be the case.

Top expert pick on this game: Matt Rivers has Penn

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The MLB futures for the 2i011 American League MVP are especially intriguing with some big names finding new teams and figuring to contend for the coveted award. Let’s handicap the top 10.

1.         Miguel Cabrera

Sportsbook odds: +400

Miggy is well on his way to a Hall-of-Fame career. The Tigers slugger has at least 103 RBI in all seven of his full pro seasons; at least 30 homers in six of seven full pro seasons; and a .320 batting average or better in five of his last six season. 2010 was his best year yet, as he set career highs with 38 homers and drove in 127 runs. He should have better protection with Victor Martinez joining Detroit’s lineup so Cabrera is a fine pick to win the AL MVP.

VERDICT: Contender

2.         Adrian Gonzalez

Sportsbook odds: +500

The MLB betting community is finally about to find out how good this guy is. Adrian Gonzalez was a perennial 40-homer threat playing in baseball’s worst hitter’s park in a popgun lineup with the San Diego Padres. Now he goes to Boston? Scary. On the road the last two years over 602 at-bats, basically a full season, A-Gonz hit .311 with 48 homers and 122 RBI. That’s exactly the type of year I expect him to have.

VERDICT: Contender

3.         Evan Longoria

Sportsbook odds: +700

It’s only a matter of time before Evan Longoria wins an MVP award. The 25-year-old is the total package and still has room to get better. Still – he hasn’t vaulted into the same echelon as a slugger like Miguel Cabrera. Miggy has bested Longoria’s numbers every year and even he still hasn’t won an MVP yet. So Longoria may have to wait a bit longer.

VERDICT: Sleeper

4.         Josh Hamilton

Sportsbook odds: +800

There’s no doubting Josh Hamilton’s all-world talent. He put it all together last year, hitting .350 with 30-plus homers and 100 RBI in just 133 games. But Hamilton hasn’t posted back-to-back healthy seasons in his career. His games played over four seasons: 90, 156, 89, 133. We can’t trust him this year.

VERDICT: Pretender

5.         Joe Mauer

Sportsbook odds: +1000

The 2009 AL MVP is probably the best pure hitter on the planet – but his 28-homer MVP season really looks like an outlier. He has one other 13-homer season and has single-digit homer totals every other year. I’m not sure he has the power to steal the award a second time.

VERDICT: Pretender

6.         Mark Teixeira

Sportsbook odds: +1200

Tex only battled .256 last season but you know you’re good when 33 homers and 108 RBI qualify as a “down” season. He still topped Josh Hamilton in both those categories. Teixeira is still young enough – 31 on April 11 – that his career year could still be ahead of him. He has a shot at the MVP this year.

VERDICT: Contender

7.         Alex Rodriguez

Sportsbook odds: +1500

Now 35 years old, A-Rod is almost certainly past his prime. He’s also missing more time than he used to as his creaky hip starts to get the better of him. Still – he drove in a whopping 125 runs with no one even noticing him last year. We can’t count him out of the MVP race just yet.

VERDICT: Sleeper

8.         Robinson Cano

Sportsbook odds: +1800

A third straight Yankee to appear on this sports betting blog list, Cano was the MVP choice over Josh Hamilton in many people’s eyes last year. He’s far more durable and an outstanding hitter at a traditionally thin offensive position. His game reached a new height last season and could stay there.

VERDICT: Contender

9.         Justin Morneau

Sportsbook odds: +2000

Whenever Justin Morneau plays, he contends for the MVP award. He had a monster season going in 2010 before a concussion derailed him. But we have to relegate him to sleeper status for 2011 since we can’t know for sure that he’ll return from the serious injury without a hitch.

VERDICT: Sleeper

10.       Kevin Youkilis

Sportsbook odds: +2500

If people voted on who they simply wanted to win the award, Youk would probably win. He’s a beloved player for his team play, batting eye, power and defense. But are there too many cooks in the kitchen? He has to contend with MVP candidates Adrian Gonzalez, Carl Crawford and 2008 winner Dustin Pedroia on his own team.

VERDICT: Sleeper

American League MVP free pick

Miguel Cabrera’s numbers are difficult to ignore and guys like Longoria and Cano seem ready to make the next jump. However, I’m a believer in Adrian Gonzalez. He’s a phenomenal talent long overdue to be recognized as one of the game’s best. I think it all comes together for him in 2011.

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA winner Thursday is on the Chicago Bulls (-2) hosting San Antonio.

Two of the more impressive and surprising teams in the entire NBA tangle in the windy city on Thursday and I’m just fine with the home Bulls at around this pick-em number.

I certainly will give the experienced and really good Spurs a ton of credit for what they have accomplished this season but I’m truly not all in on Greg Popovich’ boys. I really think that San Antonio has peaked too early this season and it’s going to cost them down the line when the real games are here. Of course Duncan, Ginobili and Parker are still very capable as the 9 losses all season long can attest to but they are not a team that scares me all that much. I am in awe of the 46-9 record but I also believe that this team is going to hit a bit of a wall in the near future creating a ton of inherent value in their lines when faded.

Derrick Rose has blown up into superstar status and Carlos Boozer has been really good once again as well. Chicago is 36-16 right now and being lost in the mix because of the Heat and Celtics going toe-to-toe. But don’t look now the Bulls are right there for the best spot in the East and with the way they have fared why not?

The Spurs are playing the final game of their 9 game road trip tonight and with their age in no way, shape or form can be anything close to fresh. They have had a few days off which will help but they have been living out of a suitcase now for a few weeks and there is just no way they are going to put their best foot forward in what may be the toughest game of the entire trip.

Da Bulls have won six in a row at home and lucky number seven is here.

Top expert pick on this game: Chicago

For more information: Matt Rivers nails a 400,000* Purdue and 200,000* Michigan took care of business last night as I continue to absolutely obliterate that Crookie. Things have really been solid of late and more of the same right here and now as I take care of business yet again in another 2-0 sweep. 300,000* Washington State-Arizona along with a 200,000* Clemson-NC State. If you’re not going to ride the hot hand then you might as well just get off the bus. I’m winning for sure on Thursday, are you? Rivers card is up

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a Wednesday winner on the Toronto Raptors (+9) to Miami.

Sure Toronto is one of the weaker teams in the entire NBA and sure Miami is light years the superior squad on the court today. But this is not a very good spot for the Heat and to ask them to play for a second straight day, travel up north of the border and then win going away by double digits just seems too extreme for me.

The 15-40 Raptors certainly can’t compete in an apples-to-apples type of a scenario. If things were equal than I understand this number as LeBron, Wade and Bosh are just way too good as the 39-15 or whatever record would indicate. But Erik Spoelstra’s boys just played in Indiana last night and are in a third game in four-day scenario which included a rough one in Boston over the weekend.

The Raptors have been off since the Sunday home win against the Clippers and should be perfectly rested. A team doesn’t want too many days off but a few is never bad and with Andrea Bargnani, Jose Calderon, Demar Derozan and at least some talent, not a ton, but some, I will grab this home dog against a potentially dog tired Heat team and take my chances.

We saw the Lakers implode in a similarly difficult situation at Charlotte on Monday night and this may not be a carbon copy but it could be in that realm.

Top expert pick on this game: Toronto +9

For more information: The 500,000* bomb cashed the ticket on Tuesday as Virginia Tech protected its home court as I said they would. Am I content with one big-time winner? Heck no! That’s the past and now I’m ready to wreak some more havoc and bury that crookie. A pair of winners out of the Big 10 including a 400,000* move from West Lafayette between Wisconsin and Purdue along with a bonus 200,000* involving Michigan and Illinois. 2-0? Bang and Bang! Get his entire portfolio tonight

Now to the latest update on the Margin of Cover standings.  Renamed “sweat barometer” in Chad Millman of ESPN’s column, MOC is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread.

Many sports handicappers believe MOC is invaluable in isolating under and overvalued teams.   To the top of the NCAA basketball standings (12 lines games minimum):

Team                                      Spread Record                     Margin of Cover

Texas                                      15-5                                        5.9

George Mason                        20-5                                        5.4

Duquesne                              12-4-1                                                5.3

Yale                                         8-4                                          5.0

Idaho                                      14-7-1                                                4.2

San Francisco                         14-6                                        4.0

Now to the bottom—or to the top of teams for bettors to fade:

Team                                      Spread Record                     Margin of Cover

Central Florida                      5-12                                        -5.4

Michigan State                       8-15                                        -5.1

South Alabama                      7-12                                        -4.5

Texas Tech                             8-13                                        -4.1

Western Illinois                     3-15                                        -4.0

Source: supplied by Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, the top sports betting site in the world.

With the All-Star weekend approaching and many of the NBA’s biggest stars gathering in one place, now’s as good a time as any to explore NBA futures for the league MVP. Here’s a look at the top 10 favorites plus a free pick for the winner from this sports betting blog.

1.              LeBron James

Sportsbook odds: +200

LeBron James has arguably been the NBA’s best player since the start of 2011. He’s found his groove with the Heat, largely because Dwyane Wade has settled into a secondary scoring role. There’s a slight concern that Wade could steal votes but LeBron is a fair frontrunner for the award.

VERDICT: Contender

2.              Amar’e Stoudemire

Sportsbook odds: +200

Two months ago, Amar’e may have been the clear-cut favorite to capture MVP honors. But the Knicks have struggled ever since the Carmelo Anthony trade rumors surfaced. With New York no longer guaranteed to make the playoffs, can we take Stoudemire seriously in the MVP race?

VERDICT: Pretender

3.              Derrick Rose

Sportsbook odds: +220

He still doesn’t have the cache of the other guys surrounding him on this list but Derrick Rose has been as good and consistent as any player in the league this year. He especially deserves mention because he helped keep the Bulls’ ship afloat despite injuries to Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah at different points. He’s as strong a pick for the award as anyone right now.

VERDICT: Contender

4.              Kevin Durant

Sportsbook odds: +400

It’s surprising that Kevin Durant doesn’t get more love in the MVP debate. He’s poised to win his second straight league scoring title on a steadily improving team poised to win its first division title since drafting him. Will the voters finally wake up and hand him the hardware? Quite possibly.

VERDICT: Contender

5.              Dirk Nowitzki

Sportsbook odds: +500

If you believe in the theory that the MVP should truly be the guy who impacts his team the most, Dirk Nowitzki is an intriguing play. He plays for the Mavericks, they dominate. He hurts his knee, they go on a big losing streak. He gets healthy again, the Mavs get hot again. As Dirk goes, so do the Dallas Mavericks.

VERDICT: Sleeper

6.              Chris Paul

Sportsbook odds: +500

This looks like fool’s good to me. Paul is high on most NBA betting oddsmakers’ lists because he’s a “name.” But he’s on pace for four-year lows in scoring, shooting percentage and assists. How does that amount to an MVP award?

VERDICT: Pretender

7.              Dwight Howard

Sportsbook odds: +600

Howard makes for an excellent pick for two reasons. For one, he’s extremely valuable to his own team the same way Nowitzki is. Face it – the Magic would barely be a playoff team without him. Secondly, he brings more defensive prowess to the table than anyone else on this list. He’s someone you can’t forget about.

VERDICT: Contender

8.              Kobe Bryant

Sportsbook odds: +1200

As much as everyone rags on the Lakers for “struggling,” this team is still running away with its own division and Kobe Bryant is still among the league’s elite scorers. One hot month could vault him back into the MVP race.

VERDICT: Sleeper

9.              Dwyane Wade

Sportsbook odds: +1500

Barring an injury to LeBron that forces him back into the limelight, Wade has no shot at the MVP this year. He isn’t even the best player on his own team.

VERDICT: Pretender

10.           Blake Griffin

Sportsbook odds: +2000

The super-rookie Blake Griffin has absolutely been one of the most dynamic and valuable players to his team this year. However, I suspect the voters will honor him with the Rookie of the Year and not feel the need to give him an MVP award on top of that. Plus – the Clippers would have to make the playoffs for Griffin to even warrant consideration.

VERDICT: Pretender

NBA MVP free pick

I’m gonna place some faith that the voters get it “right” this year and go with Dwight Howard. He’s been as consistent as any superstar in the league this year and he significantly impacts his team at both ends of the court every night.

The sports betting world is celebrating another College Basketball Game of the Year winner on Kansas State outright over Kansas.  But the opportunities never end.

OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has a winner in college basketball on Michigan State (+12.5) at Ohio State.

I thought about making the Spartans a premium play because they still have too much talent to ever be getting this much but with Delvon Roe now banged up and doubtful I just cannot trust tonight’s visitors.

Tom Izzo’s squad has been absolutely awful this season. I have no unearthly idea how MSU has been as consistently bad as they have been but to get around a dozen, even with a few missing pieces, is worth a shot. At least the men in green manned up in that last game smacking around Penn State so maybe, just maybe, they are back on the way up. It’s asking a lot in Columbus against what really is a great Ohio State team led by freshman sensation Jared Sullinger but this is still the Michigan State Spartans, isn’t it?

Korie Lucious has been dismissed from the team for a while now and Roe more than likely isn’t going to be able to go. But Sparty has been a deep team for years and it’s not like Izzo has just forgotten how to coach. They are certainly behind the eight ball and up against a team that should be a tad angry after blowing that 15 point loss and losing in Madison but one just has to think that State is going to improve dramatically here towards the end of the season as they usually seem to do and make a run.

A run may not mean a win today as that is more than likely asking a bit much against the high flying Buckeyes but like I said above, this is still “Michigan State”, isn’t it?

Top expert pick on this game: Michigan State from Matt Rivers

For more information: One play on Monday and the 300,000* banked on Syracuse. Now it’s time to bring out the big guns and one monster 500,000* big gun is certainly here. I’m talking about a pretty small single digit number that is going to end in a double-digit burial and that’s why I’m unloading the most powerful play in my entire arsenal, bar none. My mouth is literally watering at this game as if it’s a big Ruth Cris’ steak and I hardly ever eat meat.

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With the All-Star game behind us and the NHL trade deadline around the corner, hockey betting shifts toward the playoffs and, of course, Stanley Cup futures. Let’s look at the top 10 current contenders.

1.              Philadelphia Flyers

Sportsbook odds: +300

We had to take them seriously from the start this year after they made an improbable run all the way to the Stanley Cup final last year. Not much has changed from that team. Philly has tremendous depth and skill up front, a bruising defense and goaltending that may or may not hold up come playoff time.

VERDICT: Contender

2.              Vancouver Canucks

Sportsbook odds: +350

It should come as no surprise that the NHL’s most complete team has dominated the league this year. The Sedin twins and Ryan Kesler have been dynamite up front and Roberto Luongo has been his usual stellar self more often than not in net. Injuries to Vancouver’s defense are a mild concern at the moment.

VERDICT: Contender

3.              Detroit Red wings

Sportsbook odds: +400

Hockey’s most successful franchise keeps getting it done without making major personnel changes every year. Nick Lidstrom just doesn’t age and the Wings still have two of the game’s best two-way players in Pavel Datsyuk and Henrik Zetterberg. Detroit could use some more size and grit, though.

VERDICT: Contender

4.              Boston Bruins

Sportsbook odds: +500

Like the Flyers, the Bruins have that “built for the playoffs” rep about them. They’re big, mean, and extremely tough to score against. They could use a bona fide sniper, though, and perhaps a puck moving defenseman to set up Zdeno Chara on the power play.

VERDICT: Sleeper

5.              Washington Capitals

Sportsbook odds: +1000

The Washington Capitals’ management frustrates me and anyone betting on them. Every year, they’re just a few pieces away from becoming top contenders. Yet they rarely trade for veteran goalie help or a rugged defenseman. Until they step up at a the deadline, they may never get over the hump.

VERDICT: Pretender

6.              Pittsburgh Penguins

Sportsbook odds: +1500

Disaster struck Pittsburgh this season. Evgeni Malkin is done for the year after blowing out his knee. Sidney Crosby is still sidelined with a concussion. I know he’s supposed to be back next month but you just never know with head injuries. The Pens don’t have the horses to keep up in the East with their top stars out.

VERDICT: Pretender

7.              Tampa Bay Lightning

Sportsbook odds: +1800

Watch out for Tampa. Under power-play guru Guy Boucher, it’s no surprise to see Tampa lighting the lamp so much. The Lightning were surrendering too many goals earlier this season but new arrival Dwayne Roloson has righted the ship in net. Could the Lightning be one defenseman away from contending for the Cup?

VERDICT: Sleeper

8.              San Jose Sharks

Sportsbook odds: +1800

Maybe all the Sharks needed was for everyone to forget about them. With the pressure off, hockey’s perennial chokers are surging up the standings. Anti Niemi, who won the Cup with Chicago last season, has been as good as any goalie in the New Year. Could San Jose make a run?

VERDICT: Contender

9.              Montreal Canadiens

Sportsbook odds: +1800

Thanks to Carey Price’s stellar season in goal and P.K. Subban’s emergence, some hockey bettors will take Montreal’s odds and hope for another miracle playoff run. This sports betting blog isn’t drinking the Kool-Aid. The Habs are still among the most talent-poor of all the playoff hopefuls.

VERDICT: Pretender

10.           Chicago Blackhawks

Sportsbook odds: +2500

Oddsmakers aren’t giving up on the defending champs, still giving them top-10 odds even though they’re barely staying in the Western Conference playoff picture. Even if the Hawks make the big dance, it will be as a low seed with no home ice. That plus their lack of depth after trading so many guys in the offseason could be their downfall.

VERDICT: Pretender

Stanley Cup free pick

I’d throw my money down on the Vancouver Canucks if I were you. They’re extremely strong at every position and their categorical rankings back that up: first in goals, first in goals against, first in power play, first in faceoff percentage, fourth in penalty killing. As long as Luongo holds up, it’s Vancouver’s year.

While the sports betting world is enthralled with Center of the Handicapping Universe GodsTips 2010-11college basketball Game of the Year, OffshoreInsiders.com Senior Sports Handicapper Matt Rivers has an NBA pick Monday is on Charlotte (+5) hosting the Los Angeles Lakers.

There is no doubt that the Los Angeles Lakers are a better team than the Bobcats but it’s a really difficult spot for the defending champions to be in.

Kobe and the gang lost yesterday in Orlando and are on the dreaded back-to-back and fourth game in five nights. It’s almost a death sentence for the Lakers today no matter how good they are and no matter how mediocre the boys from Charlotte are.

Phil Jackson’s squad beat the Celtics to begin this road trip and then downed the Knicks the next night at Madison Square Garden. After a day off they traveled down south yesterday in the loss at Orlando and now are once again on the road in another city against the Bobcats. No matter how great these Lakers can be it just shouldn’t matter. Charlotte may be fairly mediocre and underachieving this season but they still do have some players in Stephen Jackson, Gerald Wallace and the blossoming DJ Augustin and everybody pretty much gets up for the champs on their assigned night, even if things have not been going all that well.

The Bobbies just pulled off the semi shocking upset in Hotlanta on Saturday night against the quality Hawks and should be feeling at least a little better about themselves in this spot. Now the energy and enthusiasm should remain pretty high and upbeat with the big bad Lakers limping into town.

Lamar Odom is a bit banged up and no matter how much superior the visitors are in terms of talent I believe it gets neutralized due to the situation and in the end the home Bobcats are able to take care of business.

Top expert pick on this game: Charlotte from the real Matt Rivers

For more information:  A rare off Sunday, not the end of the world. More winning today and it comes in the form of a 300,000* between a couple of struggling teams in West Virginia and Syracuse. One play, one winner, no problem!  Get Rivers Monday winners

In recent years, ESPN’s gambling columnist Chad Millman has popularized an angle he calls, “sweat barometer” as if it’s some revolutionary, groundbreaking recently unearthed angle.

Welcome to my 1988 Chad. Utilized for decades, previously known by the more mundane “Margin of Cover” (MOC) it’s a valuable resource, but only when exercising caution. It’s exploitation is limited to rare circumstances.

First, we should define it. MOC is similar to scoring margin, but it is measured by how much a team covers or fails to cover the point spread.

The quandary with Chad’s weekly updates is that he simply posts the latest standings—college only, never NBA—but never gives a tutorial and how to avail oneself of the potential yield. This can be as dangerous as giving a 14-year-old the keys to the car, but never teaching her how to drive.

It’s an angle exploited to isolate the very few squads that oddsmakers flubbed on. But knowing how small of number instances there are as well as why to proceed with caution is imperative.

Decades of first-hand experience dictate that the “sweat barometer” is only useful for indentifying teams top and bottom of standings, though that very much includes recent play tables. In fact, riding and fading teams playing above or below their mean short-term is where it proves most beneficial. This is only if the gambler knows when to hold and when to fold.

MOC is statistically significant when it’s at least +/- 5.0 points over a period of a minimum 10-15 games and at least 3.5 once the sample size gets above 20 contests.

Still, in most recent form, at least +/- 7.0 over five games minimum proves fruitful.

One of the great scholarly discussions and debates among elite gamblers is how to weigh class (teams overall quality) versus form (recent play).

Because recent play is much more fluid than variances of how oddsmakers rate teams, MOC is most efficient in riding and fading temporary form.

The bookmaker is close to flawless much more often than not. Hence they do not overreact to recent play. If sportsbooks did, sharps would annihilate this knowing teams return to form. High positive or negative MOC, or “sweat meter” as the Johnny-come-lately posse refers to it, is a valuable tool in separating the rare exceptions to the rule.

Of noteworthiness, there is an inherent danger of the MOC statistic to the untrained eye. MOC can also be counterintuitive. The greatest gamblers exploit lines that fall short by only a point or two. Sharps constantly win games that are close against the point spread. On the other hand, the squares keep coming up on the wrong side, convincing themselves they are merely victims of bad fortune.

As professional gambler Steve Fezzik has said, “I’ve made a lot more money being a good gambler than I have being a good handicapper.” In short, betting a team at (+5) when they should only be getting 3.5 points or investing in a chalk at (-2) when they need to be wagering another point or two, is what truly separates the elitist from defeatist.

When pressing into service MOC only as commanded aforementioned, the gambler can capitalize on rare occurrences of teams greatly out or underplaying the oddsmakers expectations.

Whichever term, Margin of Cover or “sweat barometer” one prefers, by any means, the sharp player must enact prudently.

For more information: Informative sports betting videos, invaluable sports betting podcasts and free sports picks are all part of the OffshoreInsiders.com Network.