Say what you want about the Golden Globes, the SAG Awards, the People’s Choice Awards, and so on, but there is no bigger award show in the entertainment betting business than the Academy Awards. It’s the crème de la crème. All the more reason to research our potential picks early.

Here are some wagers to consider. And remember – the Oscars don’t always follow the Golden Globe picks. The Hollywood Foreign Press, which makes the Globe selections, has lost a lot of credibility in recent years, so we can’t take its picks as seriously anymore.

BEST PICTURE

The King’s Speech -800

The Social Network +150

True Grit +1000

The Fighter +2000

Inception +2000

Black Swan +2500

The Kids are All Right +4000

Winter’s Bone +4000

127 Hours +5000

Toy Story 3: +5000

First things first: don’t get caught betting on anything, and I mean anything, other than The King’s Speech or The Social Network. This is absolutely a two-horse race. The Social Network took top honors at the Globes but the Globes are known for making more progressive, modern choices. The King’s Speech is more “Oscar-ish” as a period piece and led the field in overall nominations, which is often (though not always) a hint of the eventual winner.

Today’s free pick: The King’s Speech -800

BEST ACTOR

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech -10000

James Franco, 127 Hours +1200

Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network +1400

Jeff Bridges, True Grit +2000

Javier Bardem, Biutiful +3000

I know you get a ridiculously low return on your investment but there’s little use in avoiding Colin Firth here. He was fantastic in The King’s Speech, he got his heart broken in this category last year by Bridges, and he has won every possible acting award for this role so far. Whatever you do, avoid Bridges at all costs. He won last year for Crazy Heart and he essential lyplayed the same character in True Grit. He has no shot this time.

Today’s free pick: Colin Firth +10000

BEST ACTRESS

Natalie Portman, Black Swan -2200

Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right +500

Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone +2000

Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole +3300

Michelle Williams, Blue Valentine +5000

This is far less of a slam dunk than the Best Actor category, so online betting sharps beware. Most people believe it’s Natalie Portman’s year and she’s won plenty of awards on the circuit so far for Black Swan. But the Academy is sentimental; you never know if it might try to make up for Annette Bening’s past snubs and give her the win. The darkhorse is Jennifer Lawrence, so may have given the year’s best performance, but her relative anonymity will probably sink her. I think Portman takes it but it’s no sure thing.

Today’s free pick: Natalie Portman -2200

BEST DIRECTOR

Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech -200

David Fincher, The Social Network -180

Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan +1200

Ethan and Joel Coen, True Grit +3000

David O. Russell, The Fighter +3000

Hooper is the favorite here but I think he’ll be disappointed. All the critical praise for The King’s Speech has focused on the acting and writing, with very little talk of Hooper’s directing. David Fincher appeared to influence his movie, The Social Network, more. Christopher Nolan should win this award but, since he didn’t even get nominated, I like Fincher, who won the Golden Globe already.

Today’s free pick: David Fincher -180

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Christian Bale, The Fighter -1500

Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech +350

Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right +4000

John Hawkes, Winter’s Bone +4000

Jeremy Renner, The Town +4000

If it weren’t for the highly respected Geoffrey Rush’s presence, Christian Bale would have this award locked up already. Still – Bale has dominated this award everywhere leading up to the Oscars. The Best Supporting victory usually goes to someone who “steals” the movie. Bale stole the show from Mark Whalberg in The Fighter. Rush didn’t steal it from Colin Firth in The King’s Speech.

Today’s free pick: Christian Bale -1500

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Melissa Leo, The Fighter -600

Hailee Steinfeild, True Grit +300

Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech +400

Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom +2000

Amy Adams, The Fighter +2000

This should easily be the most hotly contested of the major awards. Leo is the clear favorite after picking up lots of hardware for The Fighter over the last couple of months. But her role was flashy, obvious even, and some other actresses are picking up steam. Youngster Hailee Steinfield’s breakthrough effort in True Grit makes her a sentimental favorite. In the end, I expect the sometimes-stuffy Academy to recognize Helen Bonham Carter’s subtle effort as the Queen of England in The King’s Speech.

Today’s free pick: Helena Bonham Carter +400