Category Archives: Sports Gambling Strategy Articles

Grandmaster sports handicapper Joe Duffy is the world’s most published author on sports betting strategy discusses virtually every aspect of winning in sports gambling.

Sports Can Unite


WagerWeb Writer

Sports Can Unite

By Sean William Toth
WagerWeb.com Contributing Writer

It seemed just like yesterday, didn’t it? Billions and billions of people got together on this planet, set aside their differences, found common ground and “harmoniously converged” for what unfortunately was all too short of a time.

No, I’m not talking about the latest Kitaro concert tour. I’m referring to the 2006 World Cup tournament in Germany. The same thing has happened on a regular basis over the years in the Olympics. Many, many diverse cultures have been gathering and participating in friendly competitions with very very few outbursts of hatred and intolerance.

I play quite a bit of backgammon online. I’m probably borderline an online backgammon addict … 15-20 games a day. But I rationalize it is by saying to myself, “I guess I could have much worse addictions.” I enjoy playing people from all over the world.

Backgammon is very popular in countries I never thought it would be … such as Bulgaria. Who would have guess that? But there are literally thousands and maybe even tens of thousands of Bulgarians playing backgammon online right now as you read this! It doesn’t seem to be very popular among the Asian populations. Every once in a while I’ll play somebody that has a Japanese flag next to their name or sometimes China, but other than that, I see very few people from Asian countries on any of the four sites I play on. Interesting, eh?

Whatever game or games you enjoy playing, chances are that there are web sites where you can play among thousands of people from anywhere in the world any time of day. I highly recommend it. You get to meet and chat with people from all over the world, sharpen your skills in that particular game, and you learn the world’s flags very quickly … which may not seem very interesting, but believe me it is once you get into it. People are usually very friendly and are usually open to talk about their culture, language, politics, etc. Many times, the backgammon game becomes secondary and we find ourselves chatting away (I can’t wait until we are able to actually talk by voice!).

The greatest thing about that I have learned from the hundreds of conservations I’ve had with people from all over the world is how much alike we all really are. You wouldn’t think that by the way each country’s “leaders” and media carry on about how different we are, how hostile many countries are towards each other … blah, blah, blah, you know the dialog.

I would say I have had 400-500 conversations with people since I’ve been playing online, and of those I have probably only have had 10 or so hostile conversations. Even from people in countries that are not particularly fond of Americans. I was surprised at first, but have learned that people know that most average Americans are not bad people. I was pleasantly surprised how many people realize that the United States is a good country with many truly good people, but a country that is going through a very difficult identity and political time right now. To the few hostile players I meet, I just try and be as friendly as possible with the hopes that they will calm down and maybe they’ll see that we aren’t all the snobs that are gung-ho militarily … in fact, quite the opposite. Maybe they will change their minds, maybe they won’t, but I try and put out that fire before it gets out of control because you never know whom you’re talking to.

Anyway, I was playing a person from Israel a few days ago on a web site that has a very large Middle Eastern population on it (backgammon originated in the Middle East and is still extremely popular there). I asked how things were going where he was. “Not good,” he replied. I don’t know what I was expecting him to say … I knew the answer to that. We chatted for a while about what is currently going on in his part of the world and the U.S. response.
I was surprised, though I don’t know why, that many Israelis including him thought that his government is really overreacting.

By the way, you can find out quite a bit of things by just observing things on such web sites. For example: Since the beginning of the increased hostility in the Israel/Lebanon border, I have noticed the number of players on this particular Internet backgammon site from Israel has not changed much while the number of players from Lebanon has gone from scarce to almost non-existent. In fact, the only person I’ve played a backgammon game with a Lebanese flag by his name was currently stuck in Germany while there on business!

“They’ve been waiting for an excuse to kill and displace Lebanon ever since they were forced to pull out of there in 2001,” he said. He also said that many people in Israel feel the same way, but no media in any country is reporting that. Now that right there says quite a bit, doesn’t it? Do you know how big of a difference that could make if they were reporting that even occasionally?

He was right, I spend quite a bit of my waking and sleeping hours listening and/or watching many different politically themed shows, and nowhere in the mainstream media did I hear anything even remotely reporting that. Once again, I had to go to the Internet to find anything reporting the news from that part of the world from that perspective. I found several Internet-based radio stations and blogs that gave me many perspectives I never would have gotten from the big “monster media scoundrels.” Once again, the media resources we have become so dependent on over the past 100 or so years failed again. But what is perhaps most frightening is that I had time and initiative to seek these “alternative” news sources. Many people in many countries either won’t or can’t do this and thus form an opinion based on many different unreliable news sources with many different opinions and agendas. And chances are millions of people are doing the same thing … and I’m a firm believer that a mass of misinformed people is more dangerous than any arsenal of nuclear weapons.

So many times over the past 50 years, the big media outlets have intentionally lied and misled the masses in many different countries and cultures. But we as humans still continue to get their vital information from the same sources.

However grim that might sound, there are many reasons to hope. People are really beginning to take notice and, most importantly, action! People are now noticing that the mainstream media is often owned by billionaires and the reporters are millionaires, both of which have many interests to protect and are quite intimidated by “‘state-sponsored information sources.” How can a very select few amount of people who are not interacting and have very limited exposure with the general populous (with very few exceptions, but there are exceptions) profess to know what the masses need to know?

While most Internet-based news resources are experiencing exponential growth and have since the “rebirth” of the Internet in the mid-1990s, more traditional media outlets are falling all over each other trying to keep their ships from sinking. Instead of actually becoming more reliable and accurate, they are trying everything but that. They are catering to people on the go by making podcasts available; they are putting blogs on their sites, but restrict them greatly (which defeats the purpose of the whole reason why blogs exist and have gotten as big as they are); they have even put out web sites and media players making them look as though they are independent, but with a little investigating many of those sites and players are backed by big billion-dollar multinational new corporations. (i.e., NBC is owned by General Electric, Winamp media player is owned by AOL, etc.).

Don’t get me wrong, the big media companies still have their place in our world. They have access to the masses unlike anybody, else and they do use that to do plenty of good things. But they are having to compete with truly independent media, even single person blogs, and that (along with other things) is forcing them to straighten up! The two things keeping them afloat is access and money. That’s what their “ships” consist of now. Will they stay alive in these “turbulent waters?” We the people will decide that! And as long as they realize that, they should be OK. But the days of their total dominance are gone.

If you want to learn a lot on the Internet, go to one of the many free web sites that allow anybody to type in a media name, and the web site will tell you who owns them and what alliances that media source has … I promise you will be amazed and you will feel very empowered!

But again there is reason to be optimistic! The will of the people all over the world are speaking out! And the big trend now is to get their information on any topic from other sources other than the big media companies, and that is truly revolutionary! That is why web sites like Inspin are experiencing incredible growth! When I have talked to other people from Inspin, you can hear the excitement in their voice. Those of you who have been with Inspin from the very beginning have seen the web site grow so much in a short amount of time.

The greatest thing about Inspin is that you’re not getting your sportsinformation from a highly paid talking head with a “Ken Doll persona.”. But you are getting it from somebody that could be your neighbor … somebody whom you can relate to. And advocating the things that sports advocates and creates is something that I deem very important if we are going to survive. I don’t feel as though I’m above anybody because I do that … I feel honored and privileged for the opportunity to do this for the better!

So next time somebody tells you that sports is just a distraction from the real issues that affect us in life, ask them how often every weekend millions and millions of people from all different walks of life get together, put all their political and philosophical differences aside and root … root … root for the same team! (or at least the same outcome to an event) And hold on … football season, where tens of millions of people get together all over this great country is right around the corner.


WagerWeb Writer

Go Against and With in the Second Half






Overvalued and Undervalued Second-Half Pitchers and Teams

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

As we’ve said a gazillion times—and make it a gazillion
and one—we do not ever blindly bet any one system, theory et al, but we have
copious starting points.  A case in point
would be teams or pitchers we believe will be good value for sports bettors to
go against or with.

Here are some highlights of that list:

Undervalued:

Atlanta,
the Braves are already turning it up.  As
you know, we have had great success in handicapping the mental part of the
game.  Even with stars like Greg Maddux
and Tom Glavine long gone, the fact that Atlanta
has won 14 straight division titles gives them the feeling of invincibility. However
Tim Hudson could be an exception as trusted opinions tell me they think he
could be fighting an injury.

Jeff Weaver, Cardinals
starter. The sportsbooks have not taken into account his move back to the NL
puts him in a pitcher friendly park. 
Wise sports gamblers know that 90 percent of pitchers perform better
knowing they are likely to get run support. Pitching for the Redbirds accomplishes
just that.

Felix Hernandez,
Mariners starter. Here is a guy we faded when he was overvalued, now he has
actually pitched better than his numbers. 
Hitters are producing twice the number of ground balls as fly balls
against him, so look out.

Chris Young,
Padres starter.  Young actually has
middling numbers at home, but he’s much better than he has shown.  History proves that pitchers with (relatively
speaking) more impressive road numbers have much more of an upside. He is also
ranked much higher in WHIP than ERA, the single best precursor to a pitcher who
will raise the bar.

Dave Bush, Brewers
starter.  Though we must admit, he’s
better at home, Bush is another guy who ranks much higher in WHIP than ERA.

Overvalued:

Francisco Liriano,
Twins starter. How many times have we crushed the sportsbooks by fading Second
Comings who proved not to be?  Liriano no
longer is pitching under the radar. The burden of high expectations is new
territory for him.   

Detroit,
few argue they are far and away the surprise of the first half. Manager Jim
Leyland has always been his best in getting teams to play with emotion.  But as we are in the dog days, talent
overrides emotion.  It’s much more of a
case of everything going right for the Tigers than everyone being wrong about
how good this team is.

Houston, they have underachieved as much as
any team and have a great upside. 
Repeat, we are big believers in the mental aspect, so adding stopper
Roger Clemens can be a boost overall, not just when he’s on the hill.

The famed
scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net We start the
week out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com , top computer trends from
forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com, live weather radar,
sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game
day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net 

Fantasy Baseball

By Chris Goudey
Contributing Writer
WagerWeb MLB Baseball Odds

If you are still in contention to win your fantasy baseball league title, the All-Star break was the time to determine your end-game strategy. We are now slightly more than halfway through the season, and you should know if you have a shot at winning. If you do still have a chance at the title, there are several things you can do to help your chances.
The first thing you need to take a look at is your current rank in each specific category, and how far you are from moving both up and down within that category. For instance, if you are in sixth place in wins but could move up to second with just 2-3 more, then that is something to target. Likewise, if you are barely ahead of three other teams in stolen bases, it is imperative that you focus on that and make sure you have enough speed so you don’t lose precious points in that category.
At this point in the season there isn’t going to be a ton of help available on your league’s waiver wire, so the best way to acquire the help you need is via trade. Let’s say most of your closers lost their job or were hurt early in the year, so you are last in saves. If you are really far behind the teams just in front of you, it would be wise to just punt the category altogether and trade whatever closers you have left for help elsewhere.
If you need help in the other pitching categories, a solid starter is going to help you much more than holding a closer. Good starting pitchers eat up innings, so they will help your ERA/WHIP much more than a closer will. Also, if your league counts strikeouts, then that’s a fourth category you can get help in. Trade those closers for help in other categories.
Likewise, if you are strong in steals and think you can maintain your rank while trading a steals source, target a good power hitter if you need help there. A team with a lot of power and good numbers in HR/RBI is probably lacking in steals, so a trade where both teams are getting what they need makes a lot of sense. Batting average and runs scored can be acquired from power hitters and speed guys, so there is no real advantage either way. Obviously if you are low in average, runs and steals, a player like Ichiro is perfect for you, as he will be among the league leaders in all three. A player like Albert Pujols will get you the help in every category except steals, but he will obviously be much harder to trade for.
One more thing you can do to find a trade target is to look a player’s career numbers for the second half. There are lots of players who are much better in the second half than the first historically, so you might find a diamond in the rough if you do your research. All of the major sports sites and MLB.com have this information. The other thing you can do is to read the daily player notes on many roto-based sites or in USA Today. These notes will give you updates on playing time and injuries that can be crucial as we get down the stretch.
Trading is a delicate thing, especially if you are in a league with friends. Obviously you want to get the best of the trade, but at the same time you don’t want to develop a reputation as someone who is difficult to deal with. The best trade is one that helps both teams, but you just a little bit more than your trading partner. You want to try to make sure the person is getting value, but you don’t want to hurt your bottom line, which is your chance to win the title. If you’re trading with someone who is above you in the standings, don’t give them what they need to beat you. Usually you’ll want to try to trade with someone who is below you in the standings so they don’t hurt you long-term. As a rule I try to put myself in the other team’s shoes when I offer a trade. I look at their standing within each category and try to make sure they’re getting something they need. There’s no point in offering a closer to a guy who already leads the league in saves. It’s just a waste of time and will get you a bad reputation.
The stretch run is about to begin, and while the real pennant races are beginning to heat up so is your fantasy race. Be smart about what you need to do to get yourself over the top, and hopefully both you and your favorite team will be holding the trophy at the end of the season
Chris Goudey
WagerWeb MLB Baseball Odds

Poker Tip of the Week

Poker Tip of the Week: Bad Beats »
By Chris Goudey
WagerWeb Casino

“#$%(&%#(&$)@&!!!”, I said for what seemed like the 10th time. Yes, I just got sucked out again on the river by a 2-outer and have now lost my last four sit-and-go tournaments in the same way. The donkey across the table has pulled one of the two or three cards in the deck that they needed to beat me after the flop. Those are known as bad beats, and as any player who plays regularly can tell you it seems to happen all the time.
Bad beats happen to the best poker players, the worst poker players, and everyone in between. There really isn’t a definition of what a bad beat is, but I would say it’s any time that you have your money in the pot and have at least a 75 percent chance of winning the hand. There are plenty of times where you have a 50/50, 55/45 or 60/40 chance of winning and you lose, but those aren’t really bad beats. They’re just part of the game. The times when you are in a “race” with someone, meaning one of you has a pocket pair and the other has two cards larger than your pair, are really not much more than a 50-55 percent chance for the person holding the pair to win. Also, a situation similar to this, where you have one overcard and your opponent has two cards higher than your kicker, you are only a 60 percent favorite to win.
The bad beats I’m talking about are the ones where you dominate your opponent, either with a higher pocket pair than his, a pair with a higher kicker or some other situation where he is a huge underdog once all the money goes in. Those are the ones that make you feel like you’ve been punched in the gut when you lose, and your reaction to these bad beats can make or break you as a poker player.
There is actually some good news in a continued string of bad beats. Bad beats happen to good players more often than they do to bad ones because the good players realize they have the best of it and get all their money in with the best hand more often. While a long run of beats will hurt your bottom line, you can take solace in the fact that you are playing solid poker. In the long run, getting your money in with the best hand a large percentage of the time is going to make you a ton of money. It’s hard to remember that sometimes when you’ve just been rivered, but if you can control your emotions and not go on tilt, you’ll be much better off. The key is just to tell yourself you made the right play and get on with it.
One way to lessen the effect of a bad beat in a tournament is to try to stay away from going all-in as much as possible. I can’t tell you how many times I’ve suffered a stomach punch but still had enough chips to come back and do well. In fact, just the other day I was down to $40 in chips in a sit-and-go and came back to win. The saying “a chip and a chair” really does apply, so while you do want to maximize your profits when you have the best of it, you also want to try to insure that you don’t get yourself knocked out of a tournament if the fish catches what he’s looking for. You can be aggressive without over-betting.
As I said, bad beats happen to everyone who sits down at the table, but if you can remember that they are part of the game, don’t go on tilt when they do happen, leave yourself some wiggle room, and know that you are actually playing very well, you can live to fight another day.
Chris Goudey

WagerWeb Casino

MVP Sportsbook Trivia Contest

The famed Freescoreboard trivia
contest is back. You can win a FREE $100 betting account at MVP Sports PLUS
free subscriptions to one or more of the top three handicapping websites on the
Internet
Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com, KnockoutPicks.com.

Here’s how it works:

1.     
All questions will be posted at
www.joeduffy.net

2.     
If you know the answer, email it to
mvpcontest@joeduffy.net.  We will choose at random correct answers to
win the accounts.

3.     
All winners get a free $100 betting account at MVP
Sportsbook.  We will tell you when we ask
the question which handicapping site you will win a subscription to.

4.     
****YOU MUST BE A FIRST TIME CLIENT TO MVP SPORTSBOOK.
However you can be a current or previous client to
Godspicks.com,
AllianceHandicapping.com,
KnockoutPicks.com.  In fact, if you are a current client to one
of the sites you will not only get the days added to the end of your subscription
but a special bonus you will also get the remaining days on your subscription
(up to 10) DOUBLED.   ***MVP Sportsbook
must first confirm you are a new client to MVP Sportsbook.     

More Great Sources This Football Season

JoeDuffy.net has researched the best sportsbooks for you and we choose the ones we use and think you should use for line shopping. BetUs has the best reload and sign up bonus UP TO 50 percent—and they pay on time.

Citing Sites to Make Your Football Picks Out of Sight

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

We love the Information Age when it comes to sports
betting. We have added some new sources to add to our arsenal.  Frankly, biases aside you should bump my blog JoeDuffy.net to the top of
your list of best free information this football season.

In a recent article we focused on Steve
Presson
, full time Palm Beach
luxury real estate agent and part time NFL guru.  Steve told us about far and away his favorite
website for pro football information www.profootballtalk.com.

Our only caveat is that Steve isn’t only looking at it
from a handicapping standpoint, but from a fantasy football (in which we’ve
said many times overlaps with sports gambling) as well as being just a great
source of all gossip that is pro football.

So far, we agree it’s great for offseason information and
we are optimistic it will be a goldmine for the timely preseason poop of great
use for the sports investor during the games that don’t count in the standings,
but sure do in the back pocket.

While we have no shortage of resources for the skinny
during the regular season, we are always open-minded about an upgrade or better
streamlined source.  We will be keeping a
close eye on Pro Football Talk.

Many of you have followed me since my JD of the ACC
scorephone “Tailgate Party” reports on game day. For the first time in 15
years, I won’t be giving that great information via recorded message.  Instead we are moving all the free gambling data
to JoeDuffy.net.  Best of all, the same price applies: FREE.

Stevie Vincent, of KnockoutPicks.com
was the original Executive Editor of the Tailgate Party and will supply computer
trends.  Best of all, we’ve worked out a
deal with AllianceHandicapping.com
the online betting syndicate.  They will
supply their pool of bettors who will be assigned to monitor pre-game shows via
satellite, internet and traditional radio for real-time information on key
players who are “game time decisions”.  Then
via AIM, they will transmit the same info and I will post it within seconds to JoeDuffy.net .

This is in addition to the Godspicks.com news and notes, live weather
radar, injuries and more you got on the scorephones for 15 years.

For fantasy football information that is a must for your prop
bets, two sites still stand above the rest, ProFantasySports.com and Rotowire.com.  Actually this is true in all sports, not just
football as far as the marriage of sports betting and sports fantasy.

Scorephone.com
remains a great source for much of our favorite syndicated content such as the SportsNetwork write-ups and Sports
Databases match-ups. 

Finally we hope the best sports talk show host from a
gambler’s standpoint, Rick Ballou, formally of Sportingnews Radio lands on a
radio station we can listen to on the internet. 
SNRN was forced to let all their top talent go in a cost cutting
measure, but nobody has a better handle on college football than Rick.

Speaking of top sports stations being available on the
internet, we raved in a recent
article
about New York’s WFAN
finally being heard on the World Wide Web. 
Another great talk show host from a gambling standpoint is Philadelphia’s
Jody McDonald who can now be heard on Sportstalk950.com.  Keep in mind, the City of Brotherly
Love
is a pro sports town and it’s the pros that Jody
gives his best insight for your investing pleasure.

Today’s free winner (no password needed), late
breaking information as game time approaches, and advanced news and notes are at JoeDuffy.net
 Premium picks are at www.godspicks.com

Specifying Pitchers Followup and Industry Commentary

We are so happy to welcome Olympic Sports Book, one of the biggest and most respected sportsbooks on the planet to our list of endorsed books. What I personally love about them is they are among the earliest to release lines. For those who like to “middle” games “Bet Middler” as we like to say, this is a must sportsbook. But they also have some of the sharpest lines on the planet and are imperative to any and all line shopping. Click here to sign up now. Welcome Greek to the JoeDuffy.net family of endorsed books

God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 23

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports
betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Follow Up on When to Specify Pitchers

Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com
is generally accepted as the top baseball handicapper in the world when it
comes to handicapping pitchers. He’s clearly established himself as the
foremost authority on baseball totals plays. 

Because he’s the most respected voice in the “pitching and
defense is 80 percent of the game” crowd, it should come as no surprise that he
says gamblers should always specify pitchers when placing a bet.  In fact, he continued that it’s doubly true
with over/under plays. “When betting a total, anyone who does not specify
starting pitchers shouldn’t be gambling.”

With his unprecedented over/under record, who are we to
argue?

Is Nothing Sacred?

I’m all for the fact that people can bet on just about
anything.  If only our own government
realized this unalienable right. However, now sportsbooks allow anyone to bet
on the number of hurricanes to hit Florida
this summer or if certain terrorist leaders will be captured.

There just seems to be something intrinsically wrong with
someone rooting for more killer hurricanes or that a terrorist mastermind stays
on the loose, just to win a $100 bet.

By no means would I suggest such bad taste would ever be
the difference between the United States
finally legalizing online sportsbooks, but often one has to win the hearts and
minds of the public and the elected officials. 
Sportsbooks that carry such inelegant proposition plays aren’t helping
matters any.

But Nothing Unsacred

There are few people more universally respected in the
industry than Buzz Daly (www.buzzdaly.com),
the veteran industry writer. Ironically enough, Buzz asked the same “is nothing
sacred” question regarding the practice of sports gaming posting boards paying
top posters to move to their site.

First of all, I had no idea of such practice, but I can’t
say I see a darn thing wrong with it. My philosophy at Godspicks.com has always
been to put most of my time, effort and money into the product. 

Other handicappers spend more money on marketing, but I believe
in worrying about the product first and foremost.  Bravo to posting boards that do the same. Is
paying people to stimulate interest with quality posts any more sacrilegious
than paying an SEO guy to have you ranked ahead of the competition at Google?
How about upgrading software to make a posting board look better?

I’ll take substance over style any day and if bells and
whistles are worth paying for, why isn’t quality content?

Now if we can only convince some posting boards to pay
people not to post.

The famed
scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net.  We start the week with advanced news and
notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com .
Then on game day (starting around midnight Friday and Saturday nights for the
next day’s action) it’s top computer trends from
forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com, live weather radar,
sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game
day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net 

The Importance of Handicapping Backup QBs

Steve Presson is a very successful entrepreneur who now sells luxury real estate for Corcoran Group, a high end realtor in Palm Beach, Florida.  Steve pays minimal attention to any sport but one: pro football.  A fantasy football guru, Steve is approaching legendary status in NFL “Last Man Standing” or “Survivor” pools.

They go by some other names, but essentially participants pick one game a week and if they lose, they are out.  The winners advance until there is one man (or women) standing.

The reason Steve doesn’t bet on football more often or play higher stakes is that his keep-it-simple philosophy only presents limited opportunities, perhaps 10-15 times per year. His strategy?  It’s going against second string, incompetent quarterbacks.

Our only minor disagreement is that we believe successful teams are built around quality skilled position players with quarterbacks topping the list, but Presson believes the oddsmakers can’t compensate enough when an injury forces a significant downgrade behind the center.

I heard an NFL General Manager once say the most important player on a team is the starting quarterback and the second most important is the backup QB.

Look no further than Steelers’ Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s recent brush with stupidity and death.  Literally every qualified opinion I’ve heard is that Pittsburgh is on firm legal grounds if they voided his humongous contract, which would free up plenty of money for non-quarterback additions.

Yet also unanimous is that every NFL talking head agrees as long as an eventual full recovery is likely, there is zero chance of Pittsburgh voiding his contract.

This is because while Mike Lupica and his cohorts can ramble on about the Steelers’ great defense but clearly Pittsburgh management realizes their defense performed best where all defenses pick up their best stats—on the sidelines.  And nobody is more responsible for that than Roethlisberger. The handicapping ramifications behind the indisputable fact are enormous.

Ironically Roethlisberger is a rare exception to another rule of thumb Steve has.  However, arguably he was the first notable one since a young Dan Marino. “Another trend is to look at young quarterbacks making one of their first 10 starts and preferably against a tough defensive team.  Rookie QBs don’t win and they should be taken advantage of.”

For every Marino and Roethlisberger aberration, there’s an Elway, Aikman, Manning (insert your choice of first names), Palmer and many, many others proving that theory extremely reliable in beating the NFL betting odds.

Nobody uses the Information Age in sports handicapping better than I do.  But as Steve and I were discussing strategy over 2-for-1 beer at Pete Rose’s sports bar in Boynton Beach, Florida, I was reminded of something I can’t be reminded of enough.  It doesn’t happen often, but every now and then, winning sports betting comes down to keeping it simple.

Most enlightened conversations happen over beer and in my never ending quest to acquire further knowledge, I’ll be handicapping back-up quarterbacks more than ever in my football betting.

Oh and luckily I’ll be getting Steve’s survivor pool picks.

Joe Duffy’s premium plays are available exclusively at GodsTips.com part of OffshoreInsiders.com handicapping network.

Top 3 Sites With Early Bird Specials

Bet
It Trinity Sites Announce Early Bird Specials

Address for site: http://www.joeduffy.net/

E-mail: cymccormick@joeduffy.net

Website:  Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com,
KnockoutPicks.com
  

FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE: Saturday, June 17,
2006

“Top 3 Handicapping Websites on the Web
Announce Joint and Individual Early Bird Specials”

PLAINVIEW, NY–The
Bet it Trinty sites
featured at JoeDuffy.net:
Godspicks.com, AllianceHandicapping.com, KnockoutPicks.com  have announced “Early Bird Special” prices for
football season.  This includes a Universal
Pass
: all three sites, starting with the Hall of Fame
game until the Super Bowl
for just $3,999.

All three sites and the Universal
Pass
will be:

v    
Activated Sunday, August 6 and run through the
Super Bowl, Sunday, February 4.

v    
EXCEPTION: 182 days (179 betting days and 3 day
MLB break) will be added to the end of subscriptions still active on August 6.
No one ever loses a day when renewing early for any Bet it Trinity site

v    
Include all sports: college and pro football,
college and pro basketball, baseball and hockey

Site

Daily Retail

Price

Early Bird

Price

Savings

Godspicks.com

$3,043

$1,348

$1,695

KnockoutPicks.com  

$4,475

$2,499

$1,976

AllianceHandicapping.com

$2,148

$750

$1,398

Universal Pass (all 3)

$9,666

$3,999

$5,667

 

As our credit card company limits us to $999 per
transaction, to get the package for Godspicks.com, please purchase BOTH the $999
and the $349 monthly and we will manually add you. AllianceHandicapping.com
can be purchased in one credit card transaction. KnockoutPicks.com
and the Universal pass must use alternate
forms of payment
as listed at JoeDuffy.net.
 This includes personal check, money order, cashier’s check made payable to AJA Enterprises, 3000 Old
Alabama Road, Suite 119
205, Alpharetta, GA 30022 

Alliancehandiapping.com gives you the highest rated plays from the
highest rated handicappers in their highest rated sports. We search our
database of more than 620 handicappers from the Internet, scorephones,
television, 800 number late telephone services, 900 number handicappers, tip
sheets and other sources and give you their top plays more times than not at a
fraction of the cost.

Godspicks.com is America’s
greatest sports service the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. Joe
Duffy is the most published author on gaming strategy and is a true legend in
handicapping since his JD of the ACC scorephone days.  Partner Mike Godsey is without question the
top NFL handicapper.

KnockoutPicks.com
is led by forensic
handicapper
 Stevie Vincent. The Great One is the original Executive
Editor of the famed scorephone “Tailgate Party”

 


When To Specify Pitchers

When to Specify Pitchers in Betting Baseball

Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)

Most gamblers always specify pitchers when making a
baseball bet.  As a point of fact, injudiciously
many handicappers make their bets based almost exclusively on starting pitchers.  Few articles we’ve ever written have gotten
as much response along the lines of “eye opening” in many cases even years
later, than our “Clichés
about Pitching and Defense are Offensive
” essay.

We document the truth that many would consider
sacrilegious—that so many gamblers overvalue pitching, oblivious to how much
the odds have starting pitching built in. Before your blood boils, if you never
read said column, go to the archives at JoeDuffy.net and read it
with an open mind.  Don’t judge right
away. Track the theories for a few months and even years, as many of our
converts have.  We look forward to your
feedback.

Remember though, the key in baseball betting is not
winning percentage.  Chalk addicts can
hit 60 percent of their plays and lose money, while dog specialists (ahem) can
hit 45 percent of their plays and win. 
Knowledge and proper management of probability/risk ratio is what
baseball handicapping is all about. 

A major danger in designating pitchers is if a great deal
of your handicapping has to do with the teams involved, you could get screwed
by a last minute scratch pitcher.  A
large percentage of changed hurlers involve a pitcher getting scratched in
warm-ups, where there is little time to change a bet.
A last minute pitching change may not change how you feel on the game, but it
screws you out of a play.

The 2006 NY Yankees have had their share of injuries.  Perhaps you are waiting on them to get 100
percent healthy among their starting eight and ride them during an anticipated
winning streak.  Or say the Pirates have
an on base percentage of .398 over their last seven games.  They face a Met team that is hitting .208
their last seven games with an on base percentage of just .252 and their
overused and injury riddled bullpen is struggling as well.

Furthermore the game is in Pittsburgh
where in location comparison (home team’s home stats, road team’s road stats)
the Pirates are excelling. Yet based on the fact Pedro Martinez is pitching for
the Mets, Pittsburgh (after the
juice) is a 160 dog.

The square player may actually believe this would be a
rare case in which not listing Martinez
would be a good play, because if he’s scratched, it would increase the Pirates
chance of winning.

Perhaps, but sharp players only wonder would it improve the
probability/risk ratio?

The probability/risk ratio says the Pirates would have to
have at least a 38 percent chance of winning (at plus-160) to make it a good
percentage play.  You handicap they have
a 52 percent for a +14 percent net.  Hence
it’s a good bet.

Your selection is in no way going against Martinez,
but since the odds and hence the probability/risk ratio is based on Martinez
pitching, this is a circumstance in which we would specify we are going against
Martinez.

Why?  Alay Soler becomes the Mets
pitcher and it increases our chances of winning only to 57 percent, because it
was offensive, momentum and bullpen factors behind our original play. But the
new pitching matchup makes Pittsburgh
a 145 favorite, which requires a 59.2 winning percentage.  You’ve only handicapped Pittsburgh
to have a 57 percent chance, so your probability/risk ratio is a negative 2.7
percent. Hence going with Pittsburgh
is a bad bet.

Most gamblers who don’t blindly always delineate pitchers
subscribe to what seem like obvious rules of thumb:

·       
If your bet is based predominately on going
against or for one pitcher, specify only that pitcher

·       
If your bet is based on a combination and
preponderance of going for one and against the other pitcher, specify both

·       
If your bet has minimal pitching advantage but
is based on one team having a huge edge, specify neither pitcher

 

But the flaw in that thinking is it overlooks our favorite
circumstance:

·       
Picking with a team despite having a pitching
disadvantage and hence disproportionately beneficial odds (example as above: betting
the hot, much better-at-home Pirates against the struggling Mets with Martinez)

 

Some may think that it’s a good idea to cover your assets
and always specify pitchers based on what we said.  Nope. 
Anytime we are picking team against team and it does not involve picking
against a star pitcher or picking with a stiff pitcher, a scratch is unlikely
to drastically change the probability/risk ratio, so we don’t specify starters.

A devil’s advocate may point out what if you are picking
with Braves who have beneficial odds thanks to Jorge Sosa pitching, but he is
scratched.  John Smoltz
is next in line and he starts.  The risk
is we go from picking a huge dog to a huge favorite by not specifying pitchers.
  

The reason we are more often willing to take that
particular risk is managers are much more cautious with their star pitchers and
an undisputed ace isn’t as likely to be thrown in on a moment’s notice.  But we still acknowledge that
probability/risk ratio potential pitfall. Hence, one has to strongly consider
the likely starters for each team in the event of a scratch pitcher.

Thankfully scratch pitchers are not extremely common and
over a long season specifying and not specifying pitchers is very doubtful to
make the difference in a winning and losing season.  However we accurately preach every small edge
adds up, so don’t underestimate the importance of when and when not to check
and uncheck one or both starters.

Overlooking the probability/risk ratio involved is a major
facet that keeps square players subsidizing the books for the rest of us.

The famed
scorephone Tailgate Party goes high tech this football season at JoeDuffy.net We start the
week out with advanced news and notes from Joe Duffy of Godspicks.com , top computer trends from
forensic handicapper  Stevie Vincent of KnockoutPicks.com, live weather radar,
sportsbook contests, free sports service picks, late breaking injuries on game
day, and more to “beat the screen” on the sports information superhighway at JoeDuffy.net