Overvalued and Undervalued Second-Half Pitchers and Teams

Joe Duffy (JoeDuffy.net)

As we’ve said a gazillion times—and make it a gazillion
and one—we do not ever blindly bet any one system, theory et al, but we have
copious starting points.  A case in point
would be teams or pitchers we believe will be good value for sports bettors to
go against or with.

Here are some highlights of that list:

Undervalued:

Atlanta,
the Braves are already turning it up.  As
you know, we have had great success in handicapping the mental part of the
game.  Even with stars like Greg Maddux
and Tom Glavine long gone, the fact that Atlanta
has won 14 straight division titles gives them the feeling of invincibility. However
Tim Hudson could be an exception as trusted opinions tell me they think he
could be fighting an injury.

Jeff Weaver, Cardinals
starter. The sportsbooks have not taken into account his move back to the NL
puts him in a pitcher friendly park. 
Wise sports gamblers know that 90 percent of pitchers perform better
knowing they are likely to get run support. Pitching for the Redbirds accomplishes
just that.

Felix Hernandez,
Mariners starter. Here is a guy we faded when he was overvalued, now he has
actually pitched better than his numbers. 
Hitters are producing twice the number of ground balls as fly balls
against him, so look out.

Chris Young,
Padres starter.  Young actually has
middling numbers at home, but he’s much better than he has shown.  History proves that pitchers with (relatively
speaking) more impressive road numbers have much more of an upside. He is also
ranked much higher in WHIP than ERA, the single best precursor to a pitcher who
will raise the bar.

Dave Bush, Brewers
starter.  Though we must admit, he’s
better at home, Bush is another guy who ranks much higher in WHIP than ERA.

Overvalued:

Francisco Liriano,
Twins starter. How many times have we crushed the sportsbooks by fading Second
Comings who proved not to be?  Liriano no
longer is pitching under the radar. The burden of high expectations is new
territory for him.   

Detroit,
few argue they are far and away the surprise of the first half. Manager Jim
Leyland has always been his best in getting teams to play with emotion.  But as we are in the dog days, talent
overrides emotion.  It’s much more of a
case of everything going right for the Tigers than everyone being wrong about
how good this team is.

Houston, they have underachieved as much as
any team and have a great upside. 
Repeat, we are big believers in the mental aspect, so adding stopper
Roger Clemens can be a boost overall, not just when he’s on the hill.

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