The benefits of using advanced analytics are endless. The best part is the capacity to utilize modern technology applying the scientific method to prove or disprove theories. Additionally, I also cherish the fact it forces one to eliminate intrinsic biases. I am in the minority of people who prefers to bet underdogs. Yet most of my top college football betting systems prefer not only favorites, but also often substantial chalk. Facts guide me when it comes to being the top sports handicapper, not predisposition, so lay the lumber I often do on the college gridiron.
My metrics overwhelming pointed towards TCU being a great bet laying more than three-touchdowns to SMU September of 2018. This was in strict defiance of several popular urban legends: betting on big underdogs in in-state rivalry games (long ago disproven) is one that comes to mind. Fortunately, years of successful bets deprogrammed me from my previous aversion to laying substantial points on the road. But there was still a popular betting myth I fell into in my pre-technology days: the so-called lookahead game. 
TCU had an impending clash with powerhouse and fourth-ranked Ohio State. So surely, as the squares believe, Texas Christian could take Southern Methodist lightly, correct? Fake news! In fact, road favorites of 20.5 or more playing a team ranked seventh or better in their next game are an impressive 30-10 (including the TCU rout over SMU) against the spread. However, the only time such team had a shorted week before playing the highly ranked foe, they failed to cover. Hence with at least five days rest, such situation produces a 30-9 back wallet margin.
Furthermore, those who think the game would be a straight up “trap” game and would be tempted to take the large puppy on the moneyline at top online sportsbook—don’t. Such “look ahead” teams are 39-1 outright regardless of the amount of time between games.
In hindsight, it stands to reason. Clearly three-touchdown or more away favorites are deeper and more talented than their hosts. The second and third-stringers on the better squad know to have any chance of significant, if any playing time, against the impending powerhouse, it to play impressively in their rare opportunity to shine. Hence when it comes to play-calling, a coach has reason to see who his best backups are and run the full playbook rather than merely run time off the clock.
Bookmaking is a highly profitable profession in no small part due to the proliferation of gambling urban legends. The myth of the look ahead game is on a long-list of examples of square bettors outsmarting themselves.
The author, Joe Duffy has been winning bets publicly since 1988 on the scorephones. He is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the top site for sports picks.
