Category Archives: Sports Betting News

Get sports betting information and updates to beat the sportsbooks including sports handicapping information and how to beat the Vegas line. While beating the NFL lines and the NCAA college football odds is the specialty of GodsTips, we also have information on sports service plays on the MasterLockLine and beating the over/under Vegas betting line is the domain of Stevie Vincent.

Sports Betting Tailgate Party

As sharp players bet the morning line in
college football, the college football sports handicapping experts at give
you the edge against the Vegas odds.

The most important news is that Bodog
clients all report their new site NewBodog
has made a smooth transition and there is no interruption in service.

East Carolina-Virginia Tech

The betting line has gone up at all sportsbooks as gamblers are betting on
the emotion of the Hokies. This will be the first game for Hokie
Nation after the horrific and senseless mass murder. There will be ceremonies to honor the
innocent victims.

The pointspread winner seems so insignificant, but as Mike
Godsey of GodsTips tells us, “So-called intangible players are betting on
Virginia Tech’s emotion to be worth six to eight points.”

Arkansas State-Texas

Young Longhorns quarterback Colt McCoy will be without two
of his best receivers, Billy Pittman (injury/suspension) and Jordan Shipley,
though Shipley has a small chance of playing.


Not only is Virginia
traveling quite a distance, but they will face the largest opening day crown in
Wyoming history. The game sold
out Friday night. According to our Wyoming
sources, it is considered the biggest game the Pokes have hosted “in years”.

Alabama Birmingham-Michigan State

has bar none the biggest sports service play on this game from the Couch
Potato. Though each team has a new coach and new starters, UAB
lost 28 seniors from a team that went 3-9 straight up. The Spartans have 13 starters back including
special teams. The Blazers lost seven of their leading 10 tacklers. UAB will play both Sam Hunt and Joseph Webb at QB.

Washington State-Wisconsin

offensive coordinator Paul Cryst is not afraid to
throw downfield and Washington State
is breaking in two new starters at linebacker and three in the secondary. With
the new rules, note Wisconsin’s
kickoff return team struggled. However
returning kicker Taylor Mehlhaff led the Big 10 in
touchbacks last season.


Just as if it were a basketball game between the two, sportsbooks have a high total of 52.
That’s in no small part due to the fact the Blue Devils have 11 starters back
on offense, but several players with new roles on defense. This is a realistic
chance for Duke to end their 20-game losing streak. They take on a UConn team that is off a 4-8 year. Duke is confident
having been very competitive in losses last year to Wake
, Miami
and hated rival North Carolina.

Central Florida-NC State

For those who believes games are won at the point of
attack, note that the Golden Knight’s have starters with a combined 110 career
starts on the offensive line. Compare
that to the Wolfpack’s 38. Projected starting tackle Jeraill McCuller is suspended
indefinitely. Tight end Anthony Hill is out for the year. State’s top defensive
tackle DaMario Pressley has been upgraded to probable
with a sprained elbow.


If California
does not cover the spread, it will not be because of lack of motivation. All sharp sports gamblers know it’s a big
revenge game for Cal, but last night on Sporting News Radio, Bears broadcaster Roxy Bernstein said he thinks it’s possibly the biggest
home game in California history. Speaking of California,
congratulations go out to the California (PA) Vulcans
for their 1-0 start in Division II.
is your one-stop shop for college football. We have the latest live odds, plus CFB First Half Lines, CFB Halftime Lines, CFB Matchups
from SportsDataBases or as an alternative CFB Matchups
from StatFox, CFB Trend Sheet with ATS info, CFB Game Reports, CFB Game Previews from an online betting
perspective. The articles section
now has huge free sports betting previews and sharp player information.

Saturday College Football Betting Information

Sports handicapping news and notes for college football
betting comes directly from the private clipboard of

Georgia Tech-Notre Dame

Almost all reliable sources agree that Demetrius Jones
will start at QB for Notre Dame or at least be the main signal caller. The
Irish, of course, must replace Brady Quinn, now with the Cleveland Browns.


Cy McCormick of the MasterLockLine says that among sharp Las
sports bettors and online gamblers, the
consensus “surprise team” among BCS conferences is Illinois.
“There is a lot of pressure on Missouri
in this game. I see serious upset
potential here.”

Florida International-Penn State

Look for Penn State
coach Joe Paterno to use this game to experiment. Although he has 15 starters back, only one
offensive lineman returns at his original position.


Houston must
replace one of their best quarterbacks ever Kevin Kolb. They face a high
powered Oregon team, trying to
match points with Blake Joseph and Case Keenum
battling for the No. 1 spot. They have
thrown eight passes between them at the college football level.

Houston has
been experimenting with a new 4-2-5
defense and will likely face some no-huddle against the Ducks as they break in
an unfamiliar alignment.


Baylor wide receiver Thomas White admits his Bears are
feeling disrespected over being 21-point underdogs.
Last year, the Bears led TCU 7-0 at halftime. Baylor
coach Guy Morriss has said he watched the game films
from last year’s matchup “about 600 times”.
Mike Godsey of,
generally considered the top football handicapper in the nation said, “That
sounds like a circled game to me” referring to term used by pointspread bettors
looking for a betting edge in which one team may be more motivated for a
blowout or to keep a game close.

Colorado-Colorado State

Which team gets the best sleep? The kickoff is at 10:00 a.m. local time. Colorado
will be without a lot of projected starters. Michael Sipili,
the probable starting middle linebacker, was suspended with two reserves for
offseason fighting incidents. Last year’s starting quarterback Bernard Jackson
is out with personal issues. He was
supposed to play more of a “slash” jack-of-all-trades position this year. True
freshman Josh Smith, another likely starter, is out with a bruised kidney.

For free sports betting picks, visit

NFC North Sports Betting Preview

The Bears have a much more difficult schedule than a year
ago when they won 13 games but the NFC North is so weak that it will be
difficult for Chicago not to win 10 or 11 games and capture a third straight
division title. (2006 regular season records in parentheses):

8-7-1 ATS)
: It was a memorable off-season for the Bears who
dispatched team offensive MVP Thomas Jones, took a hard line with disgruntled
LB Lance Briggs, and parted ways with troubled DT Tank Johnson. Chicago
was second in the NFL in points scored last year, although leading the league
in points off turnovers was the main reason for that success. Cedric Benson
takes over at RB for Jones with much maligned Rex
Grossman still behind center. The Bears will win with their solid defense but
the specter of just one Super Bowl loser even making the post-season in the
past six years, looms over their heads.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 68-76
ATS: 73-64-7
HF: 19-18-1
HD: 21-13
AF: 4-4-2
AD: 28-29-4
Sportsbook Buster:
The Bears are a combined 17-2-1
ATS versus AFC West teams (San Diego,
Denver, Kansas
City, Oakland), all of whom they
play this year.
NFL Betting Angle:
Chicago is just 1-6 as a favorite
after a bye week. This year, the Bears are at Oakland
(Nov. 11) after a week off.

SU, 7-9 ATS)
: First year Head Coach Mike McCarthy’s West Style
offense helped the Packers win twice as many games as the previous season but
continued improvement could be difficult to attain this year. QB Brett Favre is
still the mainstay of an offense that will miss RB Ahman Green and doesn’t have a stud at wide receiver. The
line is a work in progress. On defense, the Packers improved dramatically once
DT Cullen Jenkins moved outside, finishing in the middle of the pack (so to
speak), statistically. This is not a very good team but this is not a tough
division, either.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 84-60
ATS: 68-72-4
HF: 29-3-1-1
HD: 4-6-1
AF: 14-17-2
AD: 21-18
Sportsbook Buster:
The Packers are 6-0 ATS versus the Redskins, who they play Oct. 14.
NFL Betting Angle:
Green Bay has failed to cover seven
straight games as a home underdog.

DETROIT LIONS (3-13 SU, 6-10 ATS):
Offensive coordinator Mike Martz’ system did not work well in Detroit
where a weak offensive line was responsible for the Lions finishing dead last
in the league in rushing. Head Coach Rod Marinelli
was equally disappointed by his freshly installed defensive scheme which
finished 30th in the NFL in points allowed. Detroit
fans are hoping that a full year under the new systems will yield better
results this season and they may be right.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 46-98
ATS: 68-73-3
HF: 11-17-1
HD: 26-16-1
AF: 0-6
AD: 31-34-1
Sportsbook Buster:
The Lions have covered five straight games against the Buccaneers, who they
play at home, Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle:
Detroit has proven to be a solid
home underdog and terrible home favorite over the last nine years.

SU, 7-9 ATS)
: Second year Vikings Head Coach Brad Childress,
the offensive architect in Philadelphia, hopes that the addition of draft
choices RB Adrian Peterson (Oklahoma) and WR Sidney Rice (South Carolina) will improve an attack that
ranked just 26th in scoring last season. Having Tarvaris Jackson as
your starting QB could be a problem, though. The defense lead the NFL against
the run but was last against the pass last season. A better pass rush is needed
if Minnesota is to stay ahead of Detroit
in the fight to avoid the NFC North basement.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 79-65
ATS: 67-74-3
HF: 30-28-1
HD: 8-5
AF: 12-19-2
AD: 17-22-1
Sportsbook Buster:
The Vikings are 5-0 ATS versus the Cowboys, who they play in Dallas,
Oct. 21.
NFL Betting Angle:
Minnesota is a bad road team ATS,
especially as an away favorite.

SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog


Article is courtesy of the Greek Sportsbook
one of the few sportsbooks good enough to get the highest endorsement from the
wagering experts at


NFL South Sports Betting Preview

Granted, New Orleans
isn’t going to surprise anyone this year but with a solid cast, a new winning
attitude, and only Carolina as
serious division opposition, the Saints should march to another NFC South
title. The Panthers look good enough to battle for an NFC wild card. (2006
regular season records in parentheses):

SAINTS (10-6 SU, 10-6 ATS): Sean Payton
did the impossible in New Orleans
last season, turning a moribund 3-13 team into a Super Bowl contender. With the
return of QB Drew Brees, twin RB
threats Deuce McAllister and Reggie Bush, and emerging WR
star Marques Colston, the offense is lethal. The
defense also showed improvement under first year coordinator Gary Gibbs but
lacked aggression, finishing 31st in the NFL in takeaways in 2006.
The line, led by Charles Grant and Will Smith, is solid but the Saints need
more big-play potential at linebacker and in the secondary. Still, an offense
as potent as New Orleans’ will win
a lot of games.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 64-80
ATS: 69-72-3
HF: 14-24-1
HD: 10-16-2
AF: 9-6
AD: 32-25
Sportsbook Buster:
The Saints are 8-2 ATS their last 10 games versus the 49ers, who they play in San
, Oct. 28.
NFL Betting Angle:
New Orleans has been a miserable bet
at home, compiling just a 24-40-3 record ATS the last nine seasons.

SU, 5-9-2 ATS)
: Injuries ravaged the Panthers and the team that
made it to the Super Bowl a year earlier couldn’t even make to a winning record
in 2006. The offense struggled last year with inconsistent play from QB Jake
Delhomme and a ground game that finished 24th in the NFL, prompting
Head Coach John Fox to fire offensive coordinator Dan Henning and replace him
with Jeff Davidson. The Carolina
defense was as good as the offense was bad last year with DE Julius Peppers
leading the way. The Panthers also have a quality secondary and hope that No. 1
draft choice Jon Beason (Miami)
will be the playmaker they need at linebacker.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 64-80
ATS: 71-66-7
HF: 20-27-1
HD: 13-9-2
AF: 8-12-1
AD: 27-19-3
Sportsbook Buster:
The Panthers are 6-0 ATS versus the Saints, their last half-dozen meetings.
NFL Betting Angle:
Carolina is 3-12 ATS as a favorite
of between four and seven points.

(4-12 SU, 6-9-1 ATS)
: While the Saints were going from worst to
first, the Buccaneers were heading in the opposite direction, from first to
worst last year. Head Coach Jon Gruden hopes that
savvy QB Jeff Garcia, who the Buccaneers acquired through free agency, will be
able to run his complex West Coast offense with more precision than Chris Simms
or Bruce Gradkowski did in 2006. Tampa Bay has gotten old on defense, falling
from the top 10 in the league for the first time in a decade last season while
ranking 31st in sacks with just 25.
By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 1998-2006)

SU: 77-67
ATS: 69-69-6
HF: 30-26-2
HD: 9-2-1
AF: 15-18
AD: 15-21-2
Sportsbook Buster:
The Buccaneers are 5-1 ATS versus the Rams, who they play at home, Sept. 23.
NFL Betting Angle:
Tampa Bay
was 3-1 ATS last year and is 9-2-1
ATS the last nine seasons in the role of a home underdog.

The Falcons didn’t figure to be a playoff contender with QB Mike Vick so their
fortunes are even dimmer now that Vick is likely to miss the season defending himself against a federal indictment for dog-fighting sand
gambling. New Head Coach Bobby Petrino will have to
overhaul an offense that has been dependent on Vick since his arrival in Atlanta
seven years ago. The defense, which played well last
year, gets a new coordinator in Mike Zimmer, from Dallas.

By the Numbers (Regular
Season, 2002-2006)

SU: 70-73-1
ATS: 68-70-6
HF: 22-21-2
HD: 10-17
AF: 9-6-1
AD: 27-26-3
Sportsbook Buster:
The Falcons are 4-0 ATS versus the Lions at home their last four meetings. The
teams meet in Tampa Bay,
Nov. 11.
NFL Betting Angle:
Atlanta is 9-2 as an underdog after
a bye week. This year, Atlanta
travels to Tampa Bay,
Nov. 4, after its open week.

SU = Straight Up
ATS = Against the Spread
HF = Home Favorite
HD = Home Underdog
AF = Away Favorite
AD = Away Underdog


Article is courtesy of the Greek Sportsbook
one of the few sportsbooks good enough to get the highest endorsement from the
wagering experts at

Sports Gambling Ticker, Aug. 30

Disposed NBA referee Tim Donaghy is being displaced off
the sports gambling headlines for the time being. Though it’s safe to say the
NBA betting scandal that may or may not involve
point shaving
is only temporarily on page two, it’s now the Toledo point
shaving allegations that are coming back to the forefront.

Former Toledo
and current Tampa Bay Buccaneers bubble QB Brad Gradkowski is under the
microscope. He has emphatically
any role or knowledge of the supposed point shaving.

This is coming on the heels of highly esteemed online
gambling casino and sportsbook Bodog Sportsbook losing their URL in a legal

The Day that Will Live in Infamy in online sports gambling
was of course when the DOJ went after sportsbook giant BetOnSports, essentially
shutting down their operations. Now online gambling pioneer the Shrink takes a look at
the new book, “The Rise and Fall of BetOnSports”.

Lost in the PETA circus of
Michael Vick pleading guilty to dog fighting charges is that Vick was likely
involved in bookmaker high stakes bets on the outcome. He will address the gambling
with NFL Commissioner Roger Goodell.

All this overshadows that today is the beginning of the
college football betting
not to mention NFL
betting continues
as the preseason wraps up.

More good news is that fantasy football geeks
can now bet
their expertise
at Vegas sportsbooks. Of course offshore sportsbooks have
had fantasy football proposition bets
for years.

Sports Handicapper Changes Sports Betting Landscape

This time last year, sports handicapper Dr. Bob Stohl was
the preferred betting syndicate advisor in reference to college football picks
and NFL picks. Unfortunately, Doctor Bob had a mediocre year at best for those
who wager on football.

Simultaneously, Stevie Vincent a veteran football
handicapping expert was turning the sports betting industry, both Vegas
sportsbooks and online sportsbooks, upside down with his revolutionary forensic

Vincent’s meteoric rise, among high rollers betting on
sports, was not overnight. Ironically Vincent was successful at handicapping
sports but hesitant to gamble for personal reasons. He did admit a “family
member” had a major gambling problem but “not sports betting” so he was
resistant to bet.

He was Executive Editor of the famed scorephone Tailgate
Party, which in the pre-internet days was the choice for real-time sports
betting information and free football gambling picks.

MVP Sportsbook had a program for would-be sports
handicappers. Their model was to build
and market a site for anyone who wanted to open a sports service. In return, parent company, the VO-Group would
have exclusive rights to advertise their sportsbook and online casinos on such

Vincent reluctantly started his career as a professional
sports handicapper via MVP Sportsbook, which was under the direction of online
sportsbook pioneer Dalton Wagner.

Joe Duffy, now CEO of,
took advantage of their marketing relationship with VO-Group when he
was General Manager of

“We used their program as sort of an American Idol for sports
handicappers.” MVP had about 300 handicappers in their program. According to
Duffy, “About 98 percent of them were William Hung,” a reference to American
Idol’s most infamous contestant. Continuing with his American Idol metaphor,
“There was really only one Kelly Clarkson or Carrie Underwood.”

While other handicappers made sales, Vincent was the only
tipster who got clients to continue to renew on a consistent basis. “The
quality of his reports, both in winning and insight was truly second to none”
Duffy asserts.

“We added three handicappers from the MVP program, but
Vincent was the crown jewel,” said Duffy.

Despite the presence of elite handicappers and sports
services the Animal, Leo Shafto, GodsPicks (now
GodsTips), and the SuperLockLine, Vincent found a niche and had a renewal rate
most touts only fantasize about.

Then an even bigger breakthrough happened. University
of PA
forensic economist Justin
Wolfers wrote a research paper in which he claimed showed overwhelming
statistical evidence of point shaving in college athletics.

Vincent used some of the basic ideas in the paper to fine
tune his own handicapping techniques and developed the ground-breaking science
of forensic handicapping. “It was a natural progression to what I was already
doing,” says Vincent modestly.

Vincent, whose plays are released on
has become the “unmitigated frontline source of sports bets for the world’s
biggest betting syndicates” according to wagering expert Cy McCormick.

Vincent claims several online sportsbooks have offered him
significant sums of money to give them the plays before he releases to his
clients. He declined. “They will have to
purchase my plays and will have equal access as everyone else.”

Hillary Clinton Likely Dem Nominee For US President

Hillary Clinton is the overwhelming favorite to win the
2008 Democratic nomination for US President according to one of the leading sportsbooks. Clinton
is a prohibitive -275 favorite. Master
handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of
is best known as the top American sports punter and sports betting
handicapper, but has shown to be quite fair and balanced in political
handicapping as well.

“This far removed from the primary elections; I do not
remember a non-incumbent who was this close to being a betting lock” says the sports
betting expert
of Mrs. Clinton.

lists Barack Obama next at +190. The only potential presidential
candidate who could beat Clinton
for the Democratic nomination is Al Gore.
The former Vice President under popular Democratic two-term President
Bill Clinton, Gore has not declared his candidacy.

Bumbling John Edwards is +700 according to the
oddsmakers. Dark horses include Joseph Biden at +2500, Mike Gravel at +3500 and Bill Richardson at
+3500. Gadfly Dennis Kucinich is given as much chance of winning as Michael
Vick. There are betting odds on neither.

While the war on terror is the main issue in the campaign,
let’s hope the winner has views on legal sports gambling that are in the same
camp as Ron Paul, another dark, dark horse presidential hopeful or even in tune
with the pro online gambling views of Libertarian Wayne Root.

Root, a former employee of Jim Feist, owns a sports
betting site.

Chances of Vick Playing In NFL Again Are 100 Percent

If only the oddsmakers were as clueless as the media
scribes and the talking suits. Why can’t Mike Lupica,
Len Pasquarelli or one of their minions such as Oscar
Dooley post the online sports betting odds on whether and when Michael Vick
will play again?

After hearing all the doomsday predications about Mike
Vick’s future, I was disappointed to see that BetUs
has much more reasonable odds of even money on “Will M Vick ever
throw another pass as an NFL QB?”

Joe Duffy, CEO of
says, “Let me make this perfectly clear. Barring an act of God, the chances of Vick
playing in the NFL again are 100 percent.”

Multi-millionaires, with a dream team collection of
lawyers, do not serve long jail terms. This is especially when the victims are
not human beings. Leonard Little killed a person when driving drunk. He’s still in the NFL.

Ray Lewis was charged with murder—also of a human being. With high society attorneys, he was able to
plead down. Now the same hacks who are
writing Vick’s professional obituary tell us how Lewis is one of the great
leaders in the NFL.

How long with the NFL suspend Vick? The online sportsbook
betting odds of one-to-six months is tempting at +10,000 though admittedly it
will likely be longer.

But let’s get back to having to bet only -120 with the
juice as to No. 7 playing again. Vick will find religion, declare his
repentance and most importantly assert how much he’s matured. The lifelong
underachiever’s insistence that’s he’s grown up with be music to the ears of
any coach or GM in need of a quarterback.

I’m still searching to see if any of the online sports
betting outfits will post long odds on which team Vick will play for. Falcons’
owner Arthur Blank has a lot of his Home Depot residuals invested in Vick.

When Vick said it was head coach Dan Reeves responsible
for his shortcomings, Blank fired Reeves.
Then the Falcons’ signal caller threw Reeves successor Jim Mora, Jr.
under the bus. Mora became unemployed.

Blank can talk the tough talk now, but he will be first in
line to forgive and forget the kid he’s coddled since the day the twain met.
Plus while Vick spends minimal time in the federal detention center, the Dirty
Birds will lose more than enough to draft a blue chip wide receiver as the
yellow ribbon ‘round Vick’s old oak tree.

Vick starts more games the rest of his career than Joey
Harrington does.

How Will Donaghy Scandal Affect Sports Betting?

When the Tim Donaghy scandal broke, NBA Commissioner David
Stern held his somber press conference concerning the alleged “rogue, isolated
criminal”. Sounding more like Howard
Stern, David clearly has replaced Senator Bill Frist as the current poster
child for online sports betting hypocrisy.

Stern asserted that is was his understanding the Donaghy
and his associates bets were “not placed in Vegas”. It’s been inferred, but not
yet confirmed, that Donaghy’s bets were placed at
online offshore sportsbooks.

However, thanks to Senator Frist and his infringement on
gambling civil liberties and self-responsibility, the sharp sports bettor has
more advantages in pointspread betting than in the recent past. “More and more
of the betting wise guys and sports gambling syndicates are returning to the
corner bookie” says Vegas insider Cy McCormick of

The result is both offshore sportsbooks and Las
casinos will have less access to sharp versus
square information, hence the advantage to beating the NFL odds and college
football betting lines for football bettors.

A few years ago, Dr. Bob Stohl,
who appropriately enough operates Dr. Bob Sports, was all the rage among sports
gamblers. Several betting syndicates
would move tens of thousands of dollars on his picks. Offshore sportsbook directors often called it
the “Dr. Bob Factor.” Betting odds were
moved several points based purely on Stohl’s sports handicapping picks.

This phenomenon was seen a decade or so previous on the
Las Vegas Strip with Doc’s Enterprises.
Once a cutting edge sports betting analyst and one of the foremost Vegas
advisors, Doc’s Big 10 plays would move the Las Vegas
betting line several points. Since then, a lesser known sports tout, Bill
Tanner has become the top Big 10 betting expert.

It was déjà vu in recent years with Dr. Bob Stohl. Luckily for the sportsbooks, Dr. Bob proved to be
not much of a sports betting expert and the bookmakers
cleaned up thanks to his sub .500 sports wagers. Since then, most betting
syndicates have become disciples of forensic handicapping founder Stevie
Vincent of

Major sportsbooks have offered
Vincent incentive to release his plays to Costa Rican oddsmakers before he does
his clients, but Vincent insists this is not an option. “They can purchase my
plays and have equal access” but Vincent is a professional gambler himself and
has refused overtures to be a double agent.

True, the oddsmakers may catch up to Vincent’s techniques
the way they had with Doc’s Enterprises and Doctor Bob, but especially with
betting over/unders, Vincent’s winning has rate never been seen before in the
sports betting circles.

Even smaller players can get free sports handicapping
information in beating the NFL pointspread as the famed “Tailgate Party” is at this year. It is the
same information that previously was on the local and toll-free scorephones:
NFL real-time injuries, live weather radar, free sports service picks, insight
from professional sport handicappers and more.

Simply put, the sports bettor adjusts to the changes in
the landscape. All gamblers should be
furious at the anti-online sportsbook and online casino climate. Yet clearly the professional gambler can turn
a huge negative into a positive with the aforesaid Vegas edge.

The Importance of Handicapping Backup QBs

Steve Presson is a very successful entrepreneur who now sells luxury real estate for Corcoran Group, a high end realtor in Palm Beach, Florida.  Steve pays minimal attention to any sport but one: pro football.  A fantasy football guru, Steve is approaching legendary status in NFL “Last Man Standing” or “Survivor” pools.

They go by some other names, but essentially participants pick one game a week and if they lose, they are out.  The winners advance until there is one man (or women) standing.

The reason Steve doesn’t bet on football more often or play higher stakes is that his keep-it-simple philosophy only presents limited opportunities, perhaps 10-15 times per year. His strategy?  It’s going against second string, incompetent quarterbacks.

Our only minor disagreement is that we believe successful teams are built around quality skilled position players with quarterbacks topping the list, but Presson believes the oddsmakers can’t compensate enough when an injury forces a significant downgrade behind the center.

I heard an NFL General Manager once say the most important player on a team is the starting quarterback and the second most important is the backup QB.

Look no further than Steelers’ Super Bowl winning quarterback Ben Roethlisberger’s recent brush with stupidity and death.  Literally every qualified opinion I’ve heard is that Pittsburgh is on firm legal grounds if they voided his humongous contract, which would free up plenty of money for non-quarterback additions.

Yet also unanimous is that every NFL talking head agrees as long as an eventual full recovery is likely, there is zero chance of Pittsburgh voiding his contract.

This is because while Mike Lupica and his cohorts can ramble on about the Steelers’ great defense but clearly Pittsburgh management realizes their defense performed best where all defenses pick up their best stats—on the sidelines.  And nobody is more responsible for that than Roethlisberger. The handicapping ramifications behind the indisputable fact are enormous.

Ironically Roethlisberger is a rare exception to another rule of thumb Steve has.  However, arguably he was the first notable one since a young Dan Marino. “Another trend is to look at young quarterbacks making one of their first 10 starts and preferably against a tough defensive team.  Rookie QBs don’t win and they should be taken advantage of.”

For every Marino and Roethlisberger aberration, there’s an Elway, Aikman, Manning (insert your choice of first names), Palmer and many, many others proving that theory extremely reliable in beating the NFL betting odds.

Nobody uses the Information Age in sports handicapping better than I do.  But as Steve and I were discussing strategy over 2-for-1 beer at Pete Rose’s sports bar in Boynton Beach, Florida, I was reminded of something I can’t be reminded of enough.  It doesn’t happen often, but every now and then, winning sports betting comes down to keeping it simple.

Most enlightened conversations happen over beer and in my never ending quest to acquire further knowledge, I’ll be handicapping back-up quarterbacks more than ever in my football betting.

Oh and luckily I’ll be getting Steve’s survivor pool picks.

Joe Duffy’s premium plays are available exclusively at part of handicapping network.