All posts by Joe Duffy

What to Expect For the Rest of February NCAA Betting

Here is a sample crib sheet of news, notes, trends and
tendencies that OffshoreInsiders.com handicappers
use.

Arizona, Not a Wise Bet?

Nic Wise is Arizona’s
only true point guard and will likely not be back for the Pac-10 Tournament,
perhaps even the NCAA Tournament. This is a huge loss and the Wildcats will toil
against good pressure defenses. Those who best halftime lines, look for Arizona
to struggle late in games with no depth at point guard.

However, should Zona struggle as
expected then get Wise back earlier than anticipated, we will ride them,
knowing their game will return.

Oregon State, Ride Them

Okay, let’s explain our successful dichotomous spread team
theory again. We discount 98 percent of
trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. In short, if a
team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for
that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.

Oregon State
has a rallying cry. They have used reports from an “unnamed coach” being quoted
as saying OSU quit on the season. They will be
getting a lot of points, in their remaining contests, in arguably the toughest
conference. Because they are a rare substandard team in the Pac-10, Beavers
bettors will benefit from sandwich games, letdown games, and look-ahead
contests. They should be a good spread time from here on out.

Carolina, Vulnerable ATS

It’s not likely North Carolina
is going to sneak up on any team or oddsmaker. But
now they have several key injuries: star Ty Lawson
remains sidelined, Marcus Ginyard is playing wounded
on both feet, Deon Thompson is less than 100 percent and one of their best
bench players, Bobby Frasor is out for the year.

“Chemistry” is one buzzword we actually welcome and
subscribe to the theory. Keep in mind that the Tar Heels have already had three
overtime games in the ACC and three games decided by two or fewer points in
their first 10 conference games.

Yes, they have depth, but not only is that being tested
but Carolina has had to change
lineups often. While other teams are gelling this time of the year, Carolina
is making adjustments.

Be Leery of Betting on Kansas State

The Wildcats have been one of the great surprises in the
nation under first year coach Frank Martin. But they’ve gone from hunter to the
hunted. Also, they have their biggest tests coming up at home to Texas
on Feb. 26 followed by a huge rematch against a Kansas
team they recently conquered. However, the rematch is at Allen Fieldhouse. We think K States Vegas betting value has
reached its peak.

The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com.
It’s approaching conference tournament time. From the mid-majors to the “BCS”
conferences, nobody picks more winners than Dream Team at GodsTips, the anchor
of OffshoreInsiders.com


Bet On Sports: Yards Per Points in Football Pointspread Betting

Each and every season all sports should be a learning
experience in sports betting. We always reflect and critique ourselves,
evaluate what changes have been made by the oddsmakers and how the alterations
in the sports landscape affect handicapping.

High on the list of strategy refinements this football
season was the realization that I found a football handicapping Holy Grail
about a quarter of a century ago yet let it slip through my fingertips.

In the pre-Internet days, one of my top sources for data was
the Sports and Gaming Newswire, one of Jim Feist’s companies. I believe that
was the first time I encountered the yards per point statistic.

On offense it is calculated by yards gained divided by
points scored. On defense, it’s yards allowed divided
by points given up. The theory is it measures efficiency on both sides of the
ball.

A low number on offense is good, meaning a team does not
waste yardage or “leave points on the field” so to speak.

A high number on defense is good, meaning a lot of successful
defensive stands. However, conventional
thinking (handicapping’s ultimate oxymoron) would say bet on the efficient
teams and against the inefficient.

The stat proved not only worthless, but if anything one
would be better off fading the stat. Little did I know how true the latter was
and how consistent it has been with so many other improvements and refinements
I’ve made in my handicapping over the decades.

We’ve written many articles on how we measure the accuracy
and validity of a team’s performance. We don’t have the time and space to go
over every detail but in short, we use net yardage record (a team that gets
more yards “wins”) where others use straight up won-loss record. We use net
yards per game comparisons where the squares employ points per game.

Others “rank” teams by total yards per game in passing,
rushing and overall both offensively and defensively. In lieu of that, we use
the more reliable yards per rush, yards per pass and yards per play relative to
the cumulative average of their opponents to date.

For elaboration, visit the archived sports betting
strategy articles at OffshoreInsiders.com,
but our supposition is that these stats demonstrate which teams outplay or
underplay their stats and hence, which teams have the biggest upside and which
have the biggest downside. Insert the terms overvalued and undervalued.

Remember, a team’s Vegas/offshore value is most affected
by their performance. But the teams that have the best, yes we said best yards
per point stats are teams that are going to be overvalued and teams with the
worst undervalued.

Why? The most efficient teams can only improve by
maintaining the high bar they have set for themselves while increasing actual
production.

The squads that, for example, waste offensive yardage by
not converting them into points (bad yards per point rating) have demonstrated
they are capable of more than their bottom line production has shown.

There is little debate that poor efficiency is more correctable
than poor production. Remember, it’s not like one can retroactively bet stats.
The more efficient teams will have the best spread records to date for the most
part. As gamblers, we want to know beforehand which teams will have a reversal
of fortune—literally.

This past season, we beta tested (tracked but did not bet)
the theory. Voila. Yes, the teams that were wasting yards did have the biggest
upside and the least wasteful teams did have the bigger downside. Essentially,
it proved to be a great a great way to “buy low and sell high” and apply it to
handicapping.

Best of all, the more the previously referenced stats: net
yardage, yards per rush/pass/play and yards per point theories corroborated
each other, not surprisingly, the stronger the play. If the data contradicted, of
course it meant there was no statistical angle to exploit.

The beta testing is done. We are greatly looking forward
to next football season.

No need to wait until next football season to bet on
sports. The author, Joe Duffy makes his picks on GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com. With March Madness betting around the corner,
note that Duffy’s prowess and work ethic has earned him the monikers of Mr.
March and the Lord of the Dance.


Latest Presidential Betting Odds

Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama, John McCain and Rudolph
Giuliani respectively are the current favorites to win the US
Presidential election according to one of the European sportsbooks Ladbrokes.

Hillary Clinton is the slight favorite at 5/4, followed
closely by Obama at 2/1, John McCain at 4/1 and Giuliani at 8/1. Surging
Republican Mike Huckabee is 12/1, potential
third-party candidate Michael Bloomberg is 16/1, and Mitt Romney at 20/1.

Pro-choice when it comes to betting online candidate Ron
Paul is at 66/1. Also-rans include “two-Americas” John Edwards and Fred
Thompson each at 100/1. Disgraced potential Green Party candidate Cynthia
McKinney does not even show up on the radar screen.

Our preferred online casino is NewBodog but
they currently do not have updated POTUS odds. Republican
voters proved sports
betting expert
Joe Duffy correct when he correctly stated, “A comeback by
the Arizona Senator would surprise few Presidential historians,” when we
previously previewed the potential Republican
and Democratic
nominees.

Regardless of the nominee, Democrats are heavily favored
to take the White House at 2/5 while the GOP is 7/4. This is quite surprising
considering the Democratic controlled Congress has approval ratings double
digits below the Republican President George Bush.

OffshoreInsiders.com will continue
to update political odds and previews.


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Brady, Moss and Company Overwhelming Chalks to Win Super Bowl XLII

It was only a question of by how much. The 16-0 New
England Patriots are the overwhelming favorites to win the 2008 Super Bowl.
Bill Belichick, Tom Brady, Randy Moss and company are probative -139 favorites
to win Super Bowl XLII.

The defending Super Bowl champion Indianapolis Colts are
next at +550. While we could find no credible NFL or sports betting expert who
believes anyone other than New England should be the
favorite, several agree they are far from a lock.

“If Marvin Harrison can get even 80-percent healthy, the
Colts will be a very live dog.” says Cy McCormick of MasterLockLine.com

The Dallas Cowboys are next at +685, though it is unknown
at this time if Jessica Simpson will attend any games in her pink Tony Romo jersey. Green Bay,
in Brett Favre’s sixth annual “might be his last
hurrah” checks in at +950.

Two years ago, Pittsburgh
became the first team road wild card squad in win the Super Bowl. The Jaguars
are +1900 to do the same. Ironically, they open up in Pittsburgh,
but the Steele City
boys get no respect at +5000.

Mike Godsey, the top NFL betting expert at GodsTips.com, believes the Chargers are
without question the best dark horse at +2004. “They no longer have the worst
postseason coach in NFL history (Marty Schottenheimer) and the fact Norv Turner underused LaDainian Tomlinson early in the year
may make Norv look like a mad genius”.

Godsey adds, “Ala Jake Delhomme, Philip Rivers can be
feast or famine, but he can carry a team when he’s on.”

Rounding out the AFC, the Tennessee Titans are very long
shots at +11250. The NFC teams that oddsmakers give little chance to are the Seattle
Seahawks at +4243, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +7500, the other Manning, Eli and the
New York Giants at +7000 and the Washington Redskins at +6613.

Stevie Vincent of BetOnSports360.com,
add that “If a riverboat gambler likes riding the hot hand, he may want to take
a long look at Washington” a team
that played much better when Todd Collins took over at quarterback.

The author Joe Duffy is CEO of sports handicapping website OffshoreInsiders.com


Central Michigan-Purdue Betting Preview

Central Michigan takes on Purdue in
the Motor City
bowl. The Boilermakers are an eight-point favorite with a total of 71.5-72, so
shop around at our vetted sportsbooks.

Taken from our sports betting
previews
from articles around the Internet, Purdue players have expressed
how they want to go out on a high note after losing their final three regular
season games including to rival Indiana (a GodsTips.com
Wise Guy winner for sports bettors.

This is a rare bowl rematch as Purdue crushed the
Chippewas 45-22 back on Sept. 23.

The Bowl
previews
told you that offensively, this is one of the more evenly matched
statistical battles. Purdue gets just .4 more first downs per game but CMU gets
27.4 more yards per game on .4 more yards per play. The Boilermakers get 22.2
more yards per game in the air. The biggest edge is on rushing yards per
attempt where the Chippewas get .9 more. While Central accumulates .2 more
passing yards per attempt, it’s Purdue earning .3 more passing yards per
reception.

Purdue’s defensive superiority is across the board, but
not by dominating margins. They allow 3.4 fewer first downs per game on 64.7
fewer total yards. They also allow .8 less yards per play. The biggest upper
hand is with pass defense, allowing 1.7 less passing yards per attempt and 1.3 less
passing yards per reception and a passing percentage against of 7.9 better than
CMU allows. In turnovers and rushing yards per attempt the teams are nearly
even.

CMU went 7-2 straight up down the stretch and 5-3-1 against the spread during that
span. They also exceeded the total in seven of their last eight. Purdue went
3-6 against the spread to close out the regular season, including three
straight losses outright.

 


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Bowl Breakdowns, Part 5

This is Part-5 where the Center of the Handicapping
Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of
the bowl games. This report entails games of Jan. 1.

Wisconsin-Tennessee

The offensive stats are close. Tennessee
gets 2.0 more first downs per game on 25.1 more total yards. However, Wisconsin
has the most modest of edges, getting .1 more yards per play. Yet the Vols get 62.6 more passing yards per game. Talk about
conflicting stats, the Badgers get 1.1 more passing yards per attempt and 2.7
more passing yards per reception.

The numbers give Wisconsin
the check marks on defense. They allow 5.3 fewer first downs per game on 83.9
less yards. The Volunteers permit .2 fewer rushing yards per attempt. Every
other comparison gives a small edge to the Badgers. But Tennessee
has a turnover ratio of nine better than Wisky.

Arkansas-Missouri

While Missouri gets 6.1 more first downs per game on 35.4
more yards, Arkansas has the upper hand in the most important category
(according to sports
betting expert
Joe Duffy), getting .3 more yards per play. But it’s a
battle of differing styles as much as any bowl game. Arkansas
picks up 131.7 more rushing yards per game; Mizzou
167.1 more passing yards per game. The Razorbacks get a significantly more 1.8
more rushing yards per attempt but Missouri
.8 more passing yards per attempt. The Razorbacks have a more efficient passing
game, accumulating .9 more passing yards per reception, yet the Tigers complete
11.9 more percent of their pass attempts.

It’s see-saw on defense as well. Missouri
allows 29.1 less rushing yards per game, but Arkanas
50.3 fewer passing yards per game. The two most significant differences on defense
are the Tigers permitting 1.8 less passing yards per reception, but the
Razorbacks with a humungous passing percentage against superiority of 16.6.

Michigan-Florida

Florida has
the huge upper hand on offense getting 4.7 more first downs per game, 110.8 yards per game, 1.8 more
yards per play including 2.8 more passing yards per attempt. The Gators also
complete 13.1 more percent of their passes.

On defense, it’s the Wolverines who are superior. They
allow 4.7 less first downs per game on .5 fewer yards per play. However, Florida
allows 27.4 fewer rushing yards per game on .6 less rushing yards per attempt. Michigan’s
advantage is 98.2 fewer passing yards per game on 1.2 less passing yards per
attempt and 1.6 less passing yards per reception. Michigan
has a turnover ratio upper hand of seven.

Texas Tech-Virginia

High powered Tech gets 6.1 more first downs per game,
210.8 total yards per game on 2.4 more yards per play. However, the Cavs have
the advantage in rushing yards per game by 61.8. The Red Raiders accumulate 2.1
more passing yards per attempt. They also have a commanding superiority in
completion percentage by 13.8.

It’s pretty close on defense. The Cavs allow 62.7 less
rushing yards per game, and 1.0 less rushing yards per attempt. But the Red
Raiders permit 14.2 fewer passing yards per game. They have minimal edges as well in passing
yards per attempt, passing yards per reception and passing percentage against. Virginia
has the upper hand in turnover ratio by nine.

Illinois-USC

Contrary to what many may believe, Illinois
actually averages a slight 4.9 more total yards per game on offense led by a
superiority of 80.3 yards
rushing. They also get 1.0 more rushing yards per attempt and 1.0 more passing
yards per reception. The Trojans though complete 5.8 more percent of their
passes.

USC allows 3.3 fewer first downs per game on 96.6 fewer
total yards per game and 1.1 less yards per play. It’s a clean sweep of
superiority on defense for Southern Cal giving up 1.3 less passing yards per
attempt, 1.4 less passing yards per reception, and a completion percentage
against of 4.8 less.

Hawaii-Georgia

Hawaii gets
7.3 more first downs per game on 143.6 more yards offensively. However, the
Bulldogs run the ball much better getting 97.6 more yards per game on .8 more
rushing yards per attempt. The Rainbow Warriors have a completion percentage of
16.8 better than the Dawgs.

The defensive comparison shows the teams closer than many
may think. UGA allows 24.7 fewer yards per game, but Hawaii
actually concedes .2 fewer yards per play. Hawaii
allows .6 fewer passing yards per attempt on .7 less passing yards per
reception. Turnover ratio comparison goes to the Bulldogs by five.

 

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Bowl Breakdowns, Part 4

This is Part-4 where the Center of the Handicapping
Universe Joe Duffy’s GodsTips.com breaks down the statistical comparisons of
the bowl games. This report entails games of Dec. 30-Dec. 31.

Colorado-Alabama

Offensively, the pure numbers could not be closer as Colorado
gets 6.0 more yards per game on .1 more yards per play.

Defensively, the Crimson Tide permits 48.7 less yards per
game on .7 fewer yards per play. While the Buffs allow .2 less rushing yards
per play, Alabama allows .5 less
rushing yards per attempt and .5 less passing yards per attempt. They have the
turnover ratio edge by eight.

Air
Force-California

Air Force gets 148.8 more rushing yards per game and California
more 97.2 passing yards per game. The Falcons accumulate .5 more rushing yards
per attempt and .5 more passing yards per attempt as well as completing 4.3
percent more of their passes.

On defense, Air Force allows 16.8 less rushing yards per
game but the Golden Bears have the upper hand in passing yards allowed by 28.8
per game. The Falcons allow .7 less rushing yards per attempt but the Bears
permit .5 less passing yards per attempt.

Air Force allows a completion percentage of 5.8 less and
they have a turnover margin of seven better than Cal.

Oregon-South Florida

Oregon gets
3.7 more first downs per game and 39.6 more yards. South Florida
though gets 11.2 more passing yards per game. While the Ducks gets .8 more
rushing yards per attempt, South Florida gets .4 more
passing yards per attempt and .6 more per catch.

USF leads in every major
category on defense, but not overwhelmingly. They allow 57.8 less total yards
per game and .7 less per play. The biggest edge is the Bulls allowing 1.4 less
passing yards per reception. USF also has a turnover
ratio of eight better.

Fresno State-Georgia
Tech

Fresno has
slight edges on offense. They get 21 more total yards per game on .3 more yards
per play. Tech gets .1 more rushing yards per attempt while Fresno
accrues 1.1 more passing yards per attempt, yet the Yellow Jackets .9 more
passing yards per reception. The Bulldogs have a huge edge completing 12.6 more
percent of their pass attempts.

On the other side of the ball, Tech allows 99.5 less total
yards per game on .9 less yards per play. The Yellow Jackets have a humungous
edge allowing 2.2 less rushing yards per attempt, but the Bulldogs allow .7
less passing yards per attempt and 1.9 less passing yards per reception.

Florida
State-Kentucky

On offense it’s Kentucky
in most major categories except passing yards per reception where the Noles get .9 more. But it’s the Wildcats in total yards by
78.6 per game, .5 more yards per play, and .7 in passing yards per attempt. They
get a phenomenal 7.8 more first downs per game.

FSU allows 39.8 less total yards per game, though Kentucky
permits 35.8 less passing yards per game. FSU has a considerable edge of 1.2 on
rushing yards per attempt, but Kentucky
is superior by 1.0 passing yards per reception

Indiana-Oklahoma State

Oklahoma State
gets 89.9 more total yards per game on .9 more yards per play. The biggest
edges are on rushing yards per attempt, where OSU
gets the checkmark by 1.2 and passing yards per reception by 2.3. The Hoosiers
though complete 2.5 more percent of their pass attempts.

On defense, the Cowboys allow 2.2 less first downs per game
but the Hoosiers 49.1 less total yards per game. Indiana
permits .9 less yards per play. The Hoosiers pass defense is much better,
allowing 1.4 less passing yards per attempt and per catch as well as permitting
a completion percentage of 4.8 less.

Auburn-Clemson

Clemson gets 2.7 more first downs per game, 50.3 more
total yards per game on .7 more yards per play. The SEC Tigers though gets .8
more passing yards per reception. Clemson completes a considerable 8.9 more
percent of their passes.

Clemson also leads in most defensive classifications but
modestly. They allow 25.1 less total yards per game, but are dead even in yards
per play. Clemson has a turnover margin of 10 better.

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