Early Steam Report For Thanksgiving Week College Football and NFL Betting

Thanksgiving week is one of the biggest in football betting. In between beating World Cup odds, here is the early steam report in NFL and college football betting from sportsbooks all over the world such as vetted LUX Sports

Early NFL steam:

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LA Chargers, Tennessee, Miami; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Philadelphia, Baltimore, Washington; Minnesota UNDER

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: No significant line moves yet

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: LA Rams, NY Jets; San Francisco UNDER

Early college football steam:

🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LSU, Auburn, UNC

🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Illinois, Kansas State, Michigan

🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: Eastern Michigan -1.5 to +1.5, Utah State -14.5 to -16.5

🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Boston College, USC

There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

College football top over and under teams at top sportsbooks for college football and NFL odds based on margin of cover.

Top over teams:

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
Houston 9-2+12.6
South Florida 7-3-1+8.7

In terms of percentage, Rice, Northern Illinois, Ohio State, UCLA, Memphis, Colorado, Penn State, USC, Arkansas are all 8-3 to the over, tied for second to Houston. Rice has the highest cover margin of said teams, going over by an average of 6.0 points per game. 

Top under teams in college football:

Team       OU Record (overs-under)                                         OU margin
Iowa State2-9-12
Troy 4-7-10.1

 Colorado State is second in terms of under percentage at 1-9-1 but only by an average of -6.8 points per game. 

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

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