Elite 8 betting Saturday sees Houston vs. Villanova, Arkansas vs. Duke. Get a free NBA winner plus market reports on college basketball and the NBA.
Free pick from NBA
HOUSTON -3.5 Portland
Many of my best angles, especially when the theory crosses sports, are based on using the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Houston is 8-30 SU road. Portland is 17-20 SU at home, yet the Rockets are laying 3.5. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road favorite if they have a much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 423-294.
🏀Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: None in NCAA tournament for Saturday. Brooklyn Nets only big one in NBA, though Spurs a strong public dog. Many contrarian bettors believe in fading public underdogs, even at a lower ticket percentage than one would fade a favorite.
🏀Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Portland Pilots, Houston Cougars in college. The Associating sees Houston Rockets, Oklahoma City, Brooklyn, Toronto, and Orlando.
🏀Biggest splits: Southern Utah in college basketball has 58 percent of bets, but a mere 10 percent of money on them. Portland Trail Blazers have 51 percent of bets, but only one-percent of the money.
🏀Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Brooklyn opened -1, now -3.5 at Bovada. Raptors have gone from -9 to -11.
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Our Million Dollar March on Vegas and Offshore is now 25-14 with all postseason tournament bets including Miami Florida as NCAA Tournament Game of the Year. My 34th March Madness as a pro handicapper may not yet be in my top 15, but I am still destroying the bookies. Both NCAA Tournament sides, plus side and total on The Basketball Classic. I am just that much better than anyone else. Newbies, now you know I am called The Lord of the Big Dance. Five NBA led by three Wise Guys. Oh off winning night in NBA too! And MLB around the block. Get the picks now
Most contrarian bettors love to fade the bets in the first category “percentage of bets.” The belief is that the public is almost always wrong (which is why bookmakers make a lot of money) by chasing square theories. Hence betting against them is a winning proposition. Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is widely accepted as the top sports handicapper in the world. He prefers percent of tickets, which weighs $5 bettors the same as $500 and $5,000 a game wagerers saying, “If anything, the small bettor is the ultimate fade.”
While not completely disagreeing, Cy McCormick of the Masterlockline asserts that he prefers betting against the money. “Bookmakers always win long-term, so I want to be rooting for the same side they are,” while pointing out it is the money, not number of bets that will move the line.
Others like corroboration. If the same team is loved by both the handle and volume of bets, that’s “Truly a public play,” according to noted gambler Big Red. Finally, the splits are considered a sharp versus square metric. If majority of bets are on side A, but most of the money is on side B, some gamblers consider this equating to side B betting a sharp versus square bet.