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Free pick from NBA:
CLEVELAND +3 Chicago
Despite being nine games under .500 overall, Chicago is a solid 13-15 SU road and 19-9 against spread. Go against teams better on road now on road is 148-99-7. Both TeamRankings, NumberFire, Action Network all givem slight edges to us.
Stephen Curry has been on another planet in the scoring department lately, averaging nearly 40 points per game in April.
Curry’s torrid run includes 54 made 3-pointers in his last six outings, and the oddsmakers have taken notice.
On April 9, SportsBetting had Curry listed with 100/1 odds to take home a third MVP title.
While Jokic is an overwhelming favorite with -350 or 2/7 odds, Curry’s chances have dropped immensely.
Additionally in the NBA Awards odds world, LaMelo Ball finds himself atop the Rookie of the Year leaderboard once again with news recently surfacing that he may return from injury in the next few weeks.
Anthony Edwards moved into the ROY favorite position after Ball broke his wrist, but the possibility of Ball returning has prompted betting on him and flipped the odds.
— Odds for MVP, ROY, Defensive Player of the Year and Most Improved Player are provided by SportsBetting —
MVP
Nikola Jokic 2/7
Joel Embiid 7/2
Giannis Antetokounmpo 16/1
Stephen Curry 18/1
James Harden 25/1
Damian Lillard 30/1
LeBron James 42/1
Luka Doncic 42/1
Chris Paul 140/1
Kawhi Leonard 160/1
Donovan Mitchell 160/1
ROY
LaMelo Ball 1/2
Anthony Edwards 2/1
Tyrese Haliburton 6/1
Immanuel Quickley 55/1
Deni Avdija 130/1
Saddiq Bey 130/1
Patrick Williams 130/1
Desmond Bane 130/1
Payton Pritchard 130/1
DPOY
Rudy Gobert 1/3
Ben Simmons 3/2
Myles Turner 6/1
Giannis Antetokounmpo 36/1
Joel Embiid 65/1
Bam Adebayo 100/1
Kawhi Leonard 100/1
Draymond Green 120/1
Jimmy Butler 120/1
Most Improved Player
Julius Randle 1/5
Jerami Grant 4/1
Michael Porter Jr. 16/1
Christian Wood 20/1
Zion Williamson 20/1
Jaylen Brown 42/1
Nikola Jokic 65/1
Zach LaVine 100/1
Chris Boucher 100/1
Colin Sexton 100/1
Best sports betting picks are found at OffshoreInsiders.com, which traces its roots to scorephone days. Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.
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Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has four Wise Guys for Monday. Get three MLB and one NBA. Get the picks now
NBA free winner…
WASHINGTON -12 Oklahoma City
Large favorites have become very good bets since 2016. Under specific situations that apply in this game they are 256-149-9. The number one reason is because with all the rules favoring tempo, the advantage is higher than ever for faster and more athletic teams.
NBA trends
MLB
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Detroit (70), Golden State (60)
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Boston (94), Utah (93)
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Boston, Cleveland, Utah
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Detroit -1.5 to +3, Denver -4.5 to -7.5, Philadelphia -7.5 to -10
The hits keep coming! Six MLB Wise Guys off another winning day in MLB going 3-2 led by +168 on Texas.I’m not bullshitting when I tell you the database audit is the best thing that has ever happened to us professional gamblers. So juiced for tonight. Six NBA led by Wise Guy. Joe Duffy’s Wise Guy plays the strongest bet in the gambling cosmos. Ask any pro gambler! Get the picks now
MLB free pick:
CLEVELAND (ALLEN +107) Cincinnati (Hoffman)
Cleveland just 3-4 road, while Reds 5-1 at home. Yet pretty much a pick. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is +155.64 units and a 15.3 ROI. If teams are small away underdogs despite a big net run disadvantage, listen to what the oddsmakers tell you and go with the seemingly inferior small road underdog at 91.26 units and 11.8 ROI. Logan Allen has pitched well in two starts with a 2.70 ER, solid 1.2 WHIP. Both are better than Jeff Hoffman’s numbers.
MLB Trends:
Twins under 35-11-3 to AL
San Francisco 33-23 with total 7.5-9.5 for +16.65 units
Cubs under 23-5-2 to NL
Colorado 18-41 last 49 for -18.4 units
NBA
Oklahoma City 35-14 road
Philadelphia over 27-10 as favorites
Rockets 45-74-1
Timberwolves 44-71-2
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: San Antonio (72), LA Clippers (65), Washington (64), Minnesota (59) all underdogs
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Portland (93), Toronto (87)
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Portland, Toronto, Philadelphia
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Detroit -7 to -3, New Orleans P to -2.5
JDP continues to take handicapping to a brand-new level at 36-22 all. This includes Tigers has huge dogs each of the previous two nights cashing in. NBA sweep means 16-6 lately there. Three days winners in MLB, five night, all Wise Guys.
Two NBA Wise Guys, but includes rare day game 4:30 ET among three NBA.
Free NBA pick
DALLAS -2.5 Memphis
You would look at each team’s record and see that Dallas is 29-24 SU, Memphis is 27-25. Those records are close enough that with home court advantage, seeing the road team laying 2.5. But we have an angle that compares advanced metrics to the line and record and isolates undervalued to overvalued teams and that is the case here with Mavs having and angle 414-212-11 favoring them. Road favorites that shoot substantially more three-pointers than league average are 1265-1027-49.
Dallas has lost two straight and 3-of-4 but nice bounceback angle that is 883-699-25. Fade home underdogs off win under specific situations is 78-33-1. With Memphis hotter team at 5-2 last seven, many more angles using the oddsmakers knowledge against them going with better but colder team.
NBA Trends
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Heat (62) which is high for an underdog, Toronto (59) significant because the public again backing underdogs
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee (85), Chicago (85)
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: San Antonio, Chicago
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds:
Jamal Murray is done for the season, and Denver’s chances of bringing home a title or conference championship took a hit on and off the court.
SportsBetting made changes to its NBA Finals and Western Conference odds following the Nuggets’ official announcement that Murray has a torn ACL.
While Denver’s odds decreased, five other teams from the West saw their odds improve.
Here are the changes in odds:
Nuggets
Championship – 16/1 to 22/1
West – 8/1 to 12/1
Lakers
Championship – 7/2 to 13/4 (+325)
West – 19/10 to 7/4 (+175)
Clippers
Championship – 6/1 to 11/2
West – 14/5 to 5/2
Jazz
Championship – no change
West – 7/2 to 13/4 (+325)
Suns
Championship – no change
West – 12/1 to 10/1
Mavericks
Championship – 35/1 to 33/1
West – 16/1 to 14/1
Since streamlining database, elimination underperforming overly backfitted systems, our audit has produced a 25-14 spurt and I have flat out never been more optimistic about the future. 14-8 MLB. Four NBA led by two Wise Guys. Six MLB led by three Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. The future is so bright, I got to wear shades. Get the picks now
MLB free pick
Tampa-Texas UNDER 7.5 (Glasnow-Dunning) 7:10
Total compared to season average goes under 2539-2031-240.
Top ATS trends
MLB
NBA
Bet Now lowest moneyline juice of any vetted sportsbook
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: LA Lakers (66 percent). With the public generally preferring favorites, this is significant.
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New Orleans (92), Memphis (89)
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: New Orleans, Denver
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Utah opened -13.5 now -11, New York -3.5 to -2
So it begins for Joe Duffy clients! A new wave of super systems, streamlining of old ones, and the Grandmaster goes 4-1 in MLB. Six MLB winners, three each of mid-to-late afternoon and three night led by NL Runline Game of the Week and a system that is +683.16 units on the plus side.
Four NBA tonight including a super system that is 2301-1914-81. This includes 52-18-1 this year and 481-302-26 since 2015. It applies to both Wise Guys. Get the picks now
Free NBA pick from Joe Duffy is
SAN ANTONIO +8.5 Denver
It is no secret that the public loves better on the better and hotter teams. This creates an overlay. Spurs are 2-9 SU last 11. Denver is sizzling including winning seven straight and 16-of-19. However, we have an angle that says to bet on a much colder team is 519-377-13 ATS, despite being 356-553 outright, crushing the inductive myth about betting on the team you think will win outright.
Sportsline gives San Antonio a 59 percent chance of covering. Action Network power ratings have this at 7.2 difference, so like TeamRankings, slight edge to our side. MasseyRatings has the spread at -7.5.
Jamal Murray, who averages 21.8 points per game for Nuggets likely limited.
NBA trends:
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets NBA: Chicago (63), this is significant as the public generally likes favorites. The popular adage is public dogs die.
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia (82)
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: LA Clippers, Golden State, Orlando
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Denver opened -6.5, now -8.5.
Bet Now has the lowest moneyline juice of any approved and vetted sportsbook. This is massive as cutting one’s risk per each losing bet maximizes profits.
Bellator debuts on Showtime this Friday, and there are a lot of people betting on the hype.
Bellator MMA 256 will feature just one of the Light Heavyweight World Grand Prix Quarterfinal matchups, but the odds for all four bouts have shifted significantly over the last few months.
Tournament odds are from SportsBetting
Light Heavyweight World Grand Prix
Vadim Nemkov +190
Yoel Romero +425
Ryan Bader +500
Anthony Johnson +700
Corey Anderson +1000
Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +1000
Phil Davis +1400
Lyoto Machida +3300
Fight odds for Bellator MMA 256 can be found at SportsBetting
Ryan Bader -290
Lyoto Machida +230
(Bader opened as -500 favorite)
Vadim Nemkov -205
Phil Davis +165
(Nemkov opened as -350 favorite)
Dovletdzhan Yagshimuradov +150
Corey Anderson -175
(Yagshimuradov opened as -150 favorite)
Liz Carmouchie -180
Vanessa Porto +155
Jeremy Kennedy -130
Adam Borics +110
Olivia Parker +500
Cat Zingano -700
Best sports betting picks are found at OffshoreInsiders.com, which traces its roots to scorephone days. Follow the Twitter sports betting feed for breaking gambling, sports handicapping, and wagering intel including free sports picks and information.
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Free pick from Joe Duffy in the NBA is:
LA CLIPPERS -6 Phoenix
Phoenix is piping hot having won seven straight outright and 10-of-11, yet they are getting a big number. Ah and we have a system that says to fade red-hot underdogs to the tune of 463-333-22. Fading unrested teams off an OT under specific situations that apply in this game is 243-173-7.
MLB
Marlins 17-10 road with a total of 7.5-9.5.
Twins under 31-8-3 to American League
Cubs under 16-1-1 to National League
To those who have not already locked in to a long-term Joe Duffy’s Picks package, now is the time. Tons of systems triggered for day winners. Five day games, though first at 3:05 ET. This includes an angle that is a breathtaking 414.96 units on the plus side.
Wise Guy and Major NBA! Get the picks now
NBA
Andre Drummond expected to play for Lakers.
Phoenix 43-18 ATS last 61 games
Sacramento over 59-36-2 overall
Kings over 19-3-1 rested with a total between 223-227
Raptors 13-0 at home off loss in which field goal percentage was less than .400
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NBA intel…
Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Chicago (70), also note the Bucks have 62 percent which is high for an underdog. Blazers have 57 percent, unusual for significant underdogs.
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Sacramento (88),
Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Dallas, Sacramento
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Dallas opened at +1.5, now laying -2. Sacramento opened -4.5 now -7.5.