NBA Sharp Report, Free Pick

So it begins for Joe Duffy clients! A new wave of super systems, streamlining of old ones, and the Grandmaster goes 4-1 in MLB. Six MLB winners, three each of mid-to-late afternoon and three night led by NL Runline Game of the Week and a system that is +683.16 units on the plus side. 

Four NBA tonight including a super system that is 2301-1914-81. This includes 52-18-1 this year and 481-302-26 since 2015. It applies to both Wise Guys. Get the picks now 

Free NBA pick from Joe Duffy is 

SAN ANTONIO +8.5 Denver 

It is no secret that the public loves better on the better and hotter teams. This creates an overlay. Spurs are 2-9 SU last 11. Denver is sizzling including winning seven straight and 16-of-19. However, we have an angle that says to bet on a much colder team is 519-377-13 ATS, despite being 356-553 outright, crushing the inductive myth about betting on the team you think will win outright. 

Sportsline gives San Antonio a 59 percent chance of covering. Action Network power ratings have this at 7.2 difference, so like TeamRankings, slight edge to our side. MasseyRatings has the spread at -7.5. 

Jamal Murray, who averages 21.8 points per game for Nuggets likely limited. 

NBA trends:

  • Rockets under 79-50-1 last 131
  • Pelicans over 31-12 at home 
  • Timberwolves 43-68-2 ATS last 113

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets NBA: Chicago (63), this is significant as the public generally likes favorites. The popular adage is public dogs die. 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia (82)

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: LA Clippers, Golden State, Orlando 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Denver opened -6.5, now -8.5. 

Bet Now has the lowest moneyline juice of any approved and vetted sportsbook. This is massive as cutting one’s risk per each losing bet maximizes profits. 

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