NBA Free Bet: Should We Chase the Steam Here?

Big bet tonight.  NBA Interconference Game of the Month is among three NBA, two Wise Guys. I should not give away too much, but let’s just say those of my clients who have been with me since the 1980s have won with this angle for more than 30 years straight and, yes as if you needed an “and” it is also backed by a newly acquired angle. It’s big.

College basketball is heating up big time for us. College basketball side as well to make it 4-0. Get the picks now


LA Lakers-Detroit UNDER 214.5

This is indicative of the executive decisions required by your Grandmaster Handicapper. So many of our systems are counterintuitive and use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Many massive syndicates are using very similar systems as us. 

Because a half-point variance in the saved system and half-point discrepancy in which books are software are tied into can trigger a bet, yes sometimes a line move can in fact trigger an alert where we wind up chasing steam. 

If you don’t completely follow, that’s okay. That is why pros pay me to track it. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1493-1140-51. A total based on recent form compared to the total goes under 739-456-34. 

One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 62 percent with 209 points expected. But our other model says the steam decreased the probability of under by about seven percent. This is why it falls just short of a premium bet. Chasing steam has pitfalls. 

I bet at Bovada

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