TNF Betting Preview Jaguars vs. Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins take on the Jacksonville Jaguars as week 3 NFL betting begins. Miami is 0-2 SU, 1-1 ATS, going over 1-1. The Jags are 1-1 SU, covering both games and both went over the total. The Jags games have gone over by an average of 10.9 points per game.

Odds: Jacksonville is -3 but very low juice, in fact +105 at some books, The total is 48 at MyBookie. Last week, it opened at -1.5 and 44.

Public betting percentages: The Jags have 69 percent of bets and a stunning 90 percent of cash on them. The over is favored by 69 and 90 percent respectively.

Power ratings: The top power ratings have Jags -4.5 and 48.5 with Jacksonville projected to win 27-22.

Computer simulations ATS: One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found Miami covering the field goal 49 percent of the time, a mild plurality because of the expected pushes on the key number. 55 percent of their simulations go over and their predicted final score is Jacksonville coming out on top 27-25. The other widely respected model has Miami covering 56.4 percent to 35.6 for Jacksonville, with a ton of pushes. They have 56.6 percent of simulations going under 48, with 40.9 exceeding the total. They have Jacksonville winning by two with 45 points scored.

Against the spread trends: Miami 7-2 off loss, 16-37 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game. Jacksonville is 8-2 after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

Over-under trends: Miami has gone under 8-2 on Thursdays but over 6 straight off loss. Jacksonville has gone under 9-4 home.

Injuries: Jaguars WR DJ Clark, who has seven catches in two games for 109 yards and a touchdown in questionable. Weather is not expected to be a big factor, though at 87 degrees, depth could be a factor. Winds will be at 12 mph.

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