NFL Lock Pick Betting Breakdown Dolphins vs. Patriots Gambling Tips

The Miami Dolphins take on the New England Patriots week 1 of Sunday NFL betting. The Patriots begin the post-Tom Brady era. Cam Newton makes his debut for New England, while forever young Ryan Fitzpatrick tosses the pigskin for Miami.

Odds: New England is -6.5 -115 with a total of 43 at NFL live lines, latest odds at MyBookie. It opened Pats -7 and -115.

Public betting percentages: Though 52 percent of wagers are on New England, a stunning 65 percent of money on Dolphins. This strongly implies sharp money on the Fins and the public rarely backs underdogs, especially in this price range.

Power ratings: Massey Ratings has New England squeezing out a 24-16 win.

Computer simulations ATS: Our top programs are clashing as one has Miami covering 6.5 58.5-41.6 percent of the time. The other elite simulation has the Pats beating the bookies 58 percent of replications.

Computer simulations OU: One tells us the game goes over 52.9 percent to 44, the remaining games land on 43. The other elite simulator also has a mild 51 percent exceeding the number.

Against the spread trends: Miami is 7-17 on field turf, but 7-2 last nine to AFC. Pats are 1-6-1 on field turf. New England is 7-1 at home in the series as the home team is 13-3 head-to-head.

Over-under trends: Miami has gone over 6-1 underdogs.

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