College Football Betting Trends: Revenge Games and Rematches
According to recent statistics, college football teams seeking revenge in the same season have a 16-10 ATS record and 17-9 record to the UNDER since 2019. Based on this data, New Mexico State, Oregon, and Miami Oh are currently favored. In addition, over the past eight years, rematches have gone under 32-19-1.
Bill Belichick, the defensive mastermind, is having a rough time without the greatest quarterback of all time, Tom Brady. The New England Patriots have struggled to cover the spread this season, earning the title of the NFL’s worst team based on the “sweat barometer” metric. Meanwhile, the Dallas Cowboys, aka America’s Team, are crushing it.
Without further ado, here are the top NFL teams of 2023 in terms of covering the spread and the teams that you might want to bet against.
Top ATS teams:
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Dallas
8-3
8.2
Baltimore
8-4
6.7
San Francisco
6-5
5.4
Take note, my sports-savvy friends! Here’s a nugget of info: The Eagles are the kings of the spread, winning 7 out of 11 games with two pushes, but only covering an average of 1.6 points per game. The Jaguars are also no slouch, winning 8 of their matches but only covering by 1.3 points per game. Keep these figures in mind when placing your bets for the 2023 NFL season!
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
New England
2-9
-7.5
Washington
5-6
-6.6
Carolina
1-8-2
-5.3
Fun fact alert: Did you know that New Orleans is having a tough season with a 2-8 record and an average point difference of -2.1 per game? When it comes to sussing out the reliability of ATS and OU records, veteran cappers use the trusty margin of cover tool. It’s like margin of victory, but with a twist! It measures the margin compared to the point spread or OU because sometimes, those tricky bets can be a real sweat-inducing ride.
Please check out the main menu at OffshoreInsiders.com for the latest jaw-dropping digits, but Joe Duffy continues to slay in every sport with the power of AI and human intelligence behind every portfolio. We have an actual premium bet from Joe Duffy’s picks, bet at Bovada
GEORGIA -24 Georgia Tech 7:30
One of the biggest betting myths ever, though it has died down a bit over the years, is going with double-digit dogs in rivalry games. Literally the opposite is true. The bigger the favorite, the bigger the rivalry, the stronger the bet. The double-digit fave is 8-4 in this series, but again this is indicative of rivalries in general, so I am not basing on a 12-game sample size. Laying at least three TDs is 2-1 in this series.
Now wait just a damn minute here. Minnesota is 8-2 SU and getting more than the normal home court advantage number of points to a team 4-6 SU, including 1-4 at home? Again, so many of our systems say use the oddsmakers’ knowledge against them. Legendary oddsmaker Roxy Roxborough always said, “Handicap the lines, not the teams.” That is essentially the secret to my success over the decades.
Perhaps the biggest football weeknight portfolio is tonight, with two college football sides and a total. I upgraded one side to a Wise Guy.Must see why.I sweep NBA again, 4-0 and I’m now 45-28 for the season! I’m on a 13-5 basketball run overall, off yet another winning night in college.
Five NBA led by a Wise Guy, three college hoop winners.
Step right up and witness the amazing Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com, in action! With an impressive record of 84-50 in the NFL, including preseason, he’s already cashed in on the Bears UNDER during the last Thursday night game. He’s got a whopping five Sunday NFL Wise Guys, not to mention two Majors, and the pièce de résistance: the MNF Game of the Year! You can catch all the action at OffshoreInsiders.com, where you’ll be in the hands of the top sports bettor of your lifetime!
Since 2017, low totals go under 25-6-1. With widespread legalization of gambling, squares play a bigger factor than ever and hate betting unders, especially with a very low total. It’s no coincidence the value is in such situations.
Who is the public betting on Saturday, November 4, 2023? Get contrarian betting, betting splits, sharp versus square moves and more.
🏈Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: LA Tech, SMU, Iowa State; Missouri OVER
🏈Biggest bets based on percentage of money: SMU, LA Tech; Missouri OVER, Old Dominion UNDER, Minnesota UNDER
🏈Biggest splits. Teams listed have the highest percent of cash compared to bets: Southern Miss, Tulane; Old Dominion UNDER
🏈Largest line moves, opener to current: GA Southern -1.5 to +2.5; Old Dominion +2 to -1.5
💰💰💰Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy: All Wise Guys 2 ET or later!The Grandmaster has dealt the first wave of winning cards for this week’s gridiron cash-grabbers. Friday night will be even more thrilling with a Game of the Year and a college football Major. Get ready for a wicked weekend as Saturday brings you a whopping 10 Wise Guys including 9 sides (the highest in nine years!) backed by a system that’s been acing it for ages. As if that wasn’t enough, you’ll also snag five college football Majors on Saturday!
I caught a soundbite promo on BetQL that made me chuckle: “I noticed that teams who play Ohio State this year end up not covering the next week.” Surprise, surprise, the same catchy phrase was spouted about the Philadelphia Eagles as. But, hold up, where are the receipts? No data or evidence to back up this fake news. Sorry, buddy, but that “brilliant observation” is just pure fiction.
Um, ATS records in ’23 after playing:
OH State 3-3
Eagles 3-3-1
But, it got me thinking, which teams have been slaying and which ones have been slacking at least insofar as how foes do after clashing with them? Let’s kick things off with the NFL, and of course, let’s keep our focus on ATS records.
Worst records after playing:
Dallas 0-6
Tampa 1-4-1
New Orleans 2-5
Detroit 2-5
Las Vegas 2-5
Best records after playing:
Jacksonville 6-2
Minnesota 5-2
Atlanta 5-2-1
Onward to the college gridiron.
Worst after playing:
UNLV 1-5
Old Dominion 1-5
James Madison 1-5
Clemson 1-5
Best after playing:
Bowling Green 6-0-1
Mississippi 6-0
Utah State 6-1
Charlotte, Iowa State, Northwestern, Tulsa, and Washington State all: 5-1.
The takeaway? Starting with evidence-based data is always a smart move. And that’s precisely what you’ll find at OffshoreInsiders.com.
Get ready for a spicy serving of college football tips from our sizzling-hot betting guru, Joe Duffy, as he dishes out a free pick for the prime-time game on Fox: Utah at UCLA. With the USC line set at -7 and a total of 56 at MYBookie, get ready to score big with Joe’s expert insights.
UTAH +7 Southern Cal
One of the bubble burst angles pertains to fading teams after a devastating loss. We have several versions of this strategy, each with slightly different metrics, yet all exhibiting remarkable outcomes. This particular angle has a record of 94 wins, 27 losses, and 4 ties. However, it’s important to note that it’s currently experiencing its first-ever slump, and therefore, may not be a premium bet at this time.
💰💰💰Top expert pick: We’re dominating the season, with a 63.73 percent win rate of 62-35 in the NFL. Our team is excited to announce this week’s first wave of college football winners!
Don’t miss out on our Tuesday and Thursday picks, and be sure to check out our four Wise Guys and 13 Majors for Saturday. Get ready to make some brilliant bets with us this week too. In the epic saga of sports betting, no one slays the game quite like Joe Duffy does with the NFL! Get ready for a thrill ride with a Sunday Night Football Game of the Year and a double dose of Sunday Wise Guy bets, all while wearing your lucky jersey. Plus, there are 10 NFL Majors waiting to be conquered! MNF too. All at Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
Ace gamblers are crushing it this season, all thanks to Joe Duffy’s Picks, boasting a whopping 127-94 score in football and 62-35 in NFL at OffshoreInsiders.com. A big chunk of their success hinges on top-notch intel, including the legendary ATS standings, aka the sweat barometer.
Best teams to bet on this season, ranked by margin of cover.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Oklahoma
6-0
13
UNLV
6-0
12.3
Arizona
6-1
10.9
Oregon
5-0-1
10
Duke
4-2
9.9
Penn State
6-0
9.4
Worst teams ATS this season or the best teams to bet against ranked by margin of cover.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Baylor
1-4-1
-14.6
Temple
1-6
-11.7
Southern Miss
1-5
-9.8
Minnesota
1-5
-8.8
Note this, sports fans: No team is walking away empty-handed ATS this season. But, let’s face it, Vanderbilt at 1-7 and Illinois at 1-6 are definitely not living their best lives.
Best over teams in college football this season ranked by OU margin.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Utah State
6-1
16.9
LSU
7-0
15.8
UMass
7-1
14.6
New Mexico
5-1
12.8
Other teams that have gone over every game including Boston College at 5-0-1, Vanderbilt 8-0, but each by single digit margins.
Biggest under teams.
Team
OU Record (overs-under)
OU margin
Ohio
1-5
-12.9
Ohio State
1-5
-12.1
Utah
1-5
-11.4
UCLA
2-4
-11.1
SMU
1-5
-10.3
No team has gone under every game.
Veteran cappers have a secret weapon up their sleeve: the margin of cover. It’s a sneaky little tool used to measure the trustworthiness of those ATS and OU records that can be oh-so-tricky. Think of it as margin of victory, but with a twist- it’s measured against the point spread or OU. And speaking of OU, they list the “overs” first (just in case you’re scratching your head over that one). Some novices call this the sweat barometer. Just don’t call me late for dinner.
💰💰💰Top expert pick: We’re dominating the season, with a 63.73 percent win rate of 62-35 in the NFL. Our team is excited to announce this week’s first wave of college football winners!
Don’t miss out on our Tuesday and Thursday picks, and be sure to check out our four Wise Guys and 13 Majors for Saturday. Get ready to make some brilliant bets with us this week too. In the epic saga of sports betting, no one slays the game quite like Joe Duffy does with the NFL! Get ready for a thrill ride with a Sunday Night Football Game of the Year and a double dose of Sunday Wise Guy bets, all while wearing your lucky jersey. Plus, there are 10 NFL Majors waiting to be conquered! MNF too. All at Joe Duffy’s Picks at OffshoreInsiders.com
Get ready to cheer, sports fans! It’s time for a colossal sale and a season of epic moments. From the MLB playoffs to a football frenzy played out every night until November 22, adrenaline junkies will be in their element. Plus, the NBA is set to start next Tuesday. Can’t wait to jump into the action? For a short time only, get a whopping 25 extra days added to your 100-day pick pack. Don’t miss out!
The integration of human and artificial intelligence has given Joe Duffy’s Picks an unparalleled edge, further enhanced by the use of cutting-edge technology. This competitive advantage has enabled me to remain a full-time capper since 1988 and continuously thrive, even against multi-million-dollar corporations. Yesterday’s record was 9-3, and we’re currently 60-35 in the NFL, including a rewarding preseason. With services available at OffshoreInsiders.com, you’ll receive advanced analytics on a daily basis.
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
NFL
Wise Guy
CLEVELAND +7 San Francisco 100
UPGRADED TO WISE GUY.
Fade big road favorites off three straight home games is 39-15. We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide. It is out top power ratings bet as our power line has San Francisco -4.4 for a 6.9 percent edge.
Home dogs versus teams off a home win is 131-66. Underdogs versus a team with a great and hot offense is 170-111. The more disappointing offense based on delta points scored is 129-90. Based on delta points scored. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread.
CAROLINA +14 Miami 100
When our metrics indicate a home team is likely to be overconfident and/or grossly overvalued by the public, going with the road team is 39-7. This includes a perfect 4-0 getting 13 or more points. Non-divisional away underdogs on the road under specific situations that apply in this game relative to time of possession are 21-4. Non-divisional road dogs based on completion percentage and rushing yards per attempt are 63-32-2. Going with terrible winless teams off consecutive blowout losses is 35-14-2.
We have contrarian indexes worldwide: offshore, Vegas, all US states where betting is rightfully legal, and still substantial “outlaw” intel from other states. This as a very strong corroborated contrarian bet worldwide.
NEW ENGLAND +3 Las Vegas 405
Teams that hit the road off horrid back-to-back offensive efforts are 26-7. Home teams off big blowout loss are 47-18-4.
NY GIANTS +14 Buffalo SNF
The Bills have the second-best margin of cover in the NFL at 3-2 ATS covering by an average of +11.2 points per game. The Giants are the second worst at 0-5 by -13.5 points per game. So the Bills must be the best, right? Nope, here comes regression towards the mean. A team in consecutive road games and off a loss is 367-261-14.
Road dog not on a massive losing streak versus opponent off a loss is 131-72-6. Going with a bad ATS team is 293-202-7. The more disappointing defense based on delta points allowed is 352-259-14. Delta points allowed is how many points they allowed relative to the average team total.
Major
BALTIMORE -5 Tennessee 930 AM
***Added Saturday night
This is an outsourced pick from the short-list of very entrusted experts. Previously called a competitor consensus, the name was changed to reflect it does not always come from the few quality professionals who sell picks, but also can come from any sharp source. As long as I am not leaning the other way, I will bet a trusted outscource.
WASHINGTON +2.5 Atlanta 100
Non-divisional road teams off spread blowout loss is 92-44-6.
Minnesota-Chicago UNDER 44 100
Total based on recent offensive performance relative to the posted total goes under 224-127-8. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
San Francisco-Cleveland UNDER 37 100
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
Miami-Carolina UNDER 48.5 100
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
NY Jets-Philadelphia UNDER 41 425
When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record. The under version goes under at a rate of 1617-1268-64.
NY Giants-Buffalo UNDER 45 820
Total based on recent offensive performance relative to the posted total goes under 224-127-8.
Prop bets are counted separate from our overall record and are .20 of a Wise Guy.
Prop bets
Jonathan Mingo (Carolina) OVER 32.5 receiving yards
Jerome Ford (Cleveland) UNDER 11.5 rush attempts
Cade Otton (Tampa) UNDER 13.5 Longest reception
Calvin Ridley (Jacksonville) OVER 100 receiving yards +380 alternate lines
Raheem Mostert (Miami) TO SCORE 3 OR MORE TDs +1100
TJ Hockenson 90+ RECEIVING YARDS & 2+ TDs +3000
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