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Week 12 NFL Sharp Betting Report, 2 Free NBA Picks

It’s the famed sharp versus square report with data from top sportbooks such as Bovada, Caesars Palace, Hilton, MYBookie and other books offshore and in Vegas. We also have two NBA free picks!

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Baltimore, Detroit, Seattle, New York Giants 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Jacksonville 

NFL injuries for fantasy football and gambling picks:

  • 49ers will likely have the services of TE George Kittle, and WR Emmanuel Sanders and Deebo Samuel
  • Patriots QB Tom Brady will start, but WR Mohamed Sanu will be limited as he practiced very little this week
  • Seahawks DE Jadeveon Clowney is probable
  • Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery probable but Nelson Agholor doubtful, RB Jordan Howard is doubtful
    • Howard 525 rushing yards, 6 TDs rushing, 1 receiving 
    • Jeffrey 34 catches 353 yards
  • Redskins RB Adrian Peterson is probable 

NFL weather. 

High Precipitation

GamePrecip %
Dallas Cowboys at New England Patriots66%

Strong Winds

GameWind Speed
Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns15 mph
Oakland Raiders at New York Jets15 mph
Seattle Seahawks at Philadelphia Eagles15 mph
Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills16 mph
Detroit Lions at Washington Redskins16 mph

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy! 13-3 overall from simply the best sports handicapper to ever walk this earth Joe Duffy! I am 15-7 NFL. Sunday NFL Game of the Year and Fox Sports Interconference Game of the Year on Dallas-New England is among four NFL Wise Guys and eight Majors! I mean there is a 72.9 percent angle going back to the 1980s in the Pokes-Pats. Two NBA winners added Get the picks now

NBA

Mavericks at Rockets

Houston -5 with o/u 232

  • Houston followed an eight-game win streak with consecutive losses
  • Favorites or pick said situation 36-31
  • Dallas won four straight but hitting road
  • Fade dogs of 5 or more with four or more game winning streaks is 342-244-18
    • 67.9 percent when team we are riding has two or more game losing streak

Pick: HOUSTON -5

Pelicans at Clippers

LA -12 with o/u 234

  • New Orleans won three straight but fading streaking road dogs of 7 or more is 321-237-9

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

Top NFL teams in terms of MOC:

TeamATS RecordMargin of cover 
Baltimore5-5-09.9
San Francisco5-4-19.2
New England7-3-07.0
Minnesota6-5-03.1

Best teams to bet against in terms of MOC

TeamATS RecordMargin of cover
Cincinnati4-6-0-6.5
Washington3-7-0-5.8
NY Giants3-7-0-4.8
Miami5-5-0-4.5
Cleveland3-6-1-3.3

Critical College Football Weather for Bettors

Serious weather conditions to worry about today in college football. It’s most precipitation but some winds too. LateInfo has not lost in more than a month in college football. What is up at 4 ET is another lock. Get the picks now 

High Precipitation

GamePrecip %
Samford at Auburn75%
South Alabama at Georgia State75%
Texas State at Appalachian St75%
Marshall at Charlotte U72%
Texas A&M at Georgia76%
Pittsburgh at Virginia Tech72%
Duke at Wake Forest72%

Strong Winds

GameWind Speed
San Diego State at Hawaii21 mph

Free Pick NBA From #1 Basketball Betting Service

Joe Duffy is rocking and rolling off a 2-1 night last night. Three NBA winners for Friday as we sweep. Get the picks now

NBA free pick:

MIAMI -5 Chicago

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 598-467-14. 

You saw what Duffy has for today, but a bigger weekend is in store. Duffy is 23-12 football. Saturday, two college football Wise Guys and five college football Majors. I am 15-7 NFL. A bigger NFL portfolio is coming, but NFL Game of the Year is already up at OffshoreInsiders.com    

College Football and NFL Tickets vs. Money, Football Betting System

Gee whiz, as we enter Thursday night, it’s again road favorites that the public is pounding on. Here is the tickets vs. money breakdown for week 12 NFL and week 13 college football. Here is the sharp report for NFL. The piping-hot Falcons are the exception to the rule as the home favorites are the fourth most popular public bet. The road underdog New York Giants are the second most lopsided bet in terms of cash. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Detroit, Baltimore, Seattle, Atlanta

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Detroit, New York Giants, Baltimore 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: New York Jets, Denver

Betting factoid and winning system: Teams with a winning percentage of .300 or less off consecutive double-digit wins are a stunning 6-1 all-time for 85.7 percent ATS. That applies to the Falcons.

On the college gridiron:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Air Force, San Jose State, Florida Atlantic, Miami Florida 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Miami Florida, Temple 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Texas Tech, Iowa State, Oregon State, South Florida 

Joe Duffy is blistering hot entering the weekend. His football updates will move a lot of money on very likely winners at OffshoreInsiders.com    

NBA Champions Odds Since Substantial Love Movement

The Golden State Warriors have worse division odds than the Knicks, Bulls, Cavaliers, Hornets and Wizards.

Of course, the numbers reflect the stacked Pacific division the Warriors compete in that holds the top two title contenders (Clippers, Lakers). Still, who would’ve thought Golden State would have worse Finals odds than the Suns one month into the season.

Below are comparative charts that display odds from the day before the season started (10/21/19) through November 19, which spans exactly 30 days. 

Current SportsBetting odds (subject to change): 

Championship(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
Clippers7/23/1
Lakers5/13/1
Bucks5/16/1
Rockets8/19/1
76ers9/18/1
Warriors12/1100/1
Jazz12/116/1
Nuggets16/116/1
Celtics16/116/1
Raptors25/120/1
Nets25/150/1
Trail Blazers33/166/1
Pacers33/133/1
Mavericks40/166/1
Heat50/125/1
Spurs66/180/1
Pelicans80/1100/1
Thunder100/1150/1
Magic100/1100/1
Kings125/1150/1
Hawks125/1250/1
Timberwolves150/150/1
Pistons150/1150/1
Bulls150/1250/1
Wizards250/1250/1
Grizzlies250/1250/1
Knicks250/1250/1
Cavaliers500/1250/1
Hornets500/1500/1
Suns500/180/1
 Eastern(10/21/19)(11/19/19) 
Bucks3/22/1 
76ers2/13/1 
Celtics8/15/1 
Nets8/120/1 
Raptors10/19/1 
Pacers12/112/1 
Heat14/19/1 
Magic40/150/1 
Pistons50/150/1 
Hawks50/166/1 
Bulls66/1100/1 
Wizards100/180/1 
Knicks100/1100/1 
Cavaliers150/1100/1 
Hornets150/1150/1 
    
Western(10/21/19)(11/19/19) 
Clippers2/12/1 
Lakers7/22/1 
Rockets7/25/1 
Warriors7/166/1 
Jazz8/19/1 
Nuggets10/19/1 
Trail Blazers20/140/1 
Mavericks25/140/1 
Spurs40/150/1 
Pelicans50/166/1 
Thunder66/1100/1 
Kings80/1100/1 
Timberwolves100/133/1 
Grizzlies150/1150/1 
Suns250/150/1 
Atlantic(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
76ers-150-110
Celtics+350+175
Nets+600+3300
Raptors+600+450
Knicks+10000+10000
   
Central(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
Bucks-500-1500
Pacers+400+800
Pistons+1600+5000
Bulls+5000+10000
Cavaliers+15000+10000
   
Northwest(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
Jazz+125+150
Nuggets+140-125
Trail Blazers+550+1400
Timberwolves+2000+1400
Thunder+2500+5000
   
Pacific(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
Clippers-150-175
Lakers+275+150
Warriors+350+25000
Kings+5000+5000
Suns+25000+2500
   
Southeast(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
Heat-125-400
Magic+175+300
Hawks+700+2000
Wizards+2000+10000
Hornets+5000+10000
   
Southwest(10/21/19)(11/19/19)
Rockets-275-1000
Spurs+450+1200
Mavericks+800+1200
Pelicans+1000+3300
Grizzlies+10000+5000

Beat the SportsBetting odds with the best picks from OffshoreInsiders.com   

Jackson, Wilson Top NFL MVP Odds; Updated Rookie of the Year

A week after Russell Wilson claimed the MVP top spot, he’s been supplanted by another dangerous quarterback.

Lamar Jackson is the latest MVP favorite, according to SportsBetting. Jackson started the season with 30/1 odds to take home the honor. 

In the Rookie of the Year race, Josh Jacobs is running away from the field as he now has 1/2 or -200 odds in that category.

Current MVP and ROY odds from SportsBetting

MVP

Lamar Jackson +125

Russell Wilson +200

Aaron Rodgers +1200

Deshaun Watson +1200

Patrick Mahomes +1200

Christian McCaffrey +1600

Dak Prescott +1800

Jimmy Garoppolo +2500

Dalvin Cook +3300

Kirk Cousins +3300

Drew Brees +5000

Michael Thomas +5000

Tom Brady +5000

ROY

Josh Jacobs -200

Kyler Murray +175

D.K. Metcalf +1600

Daniel Jones +2500

David Montgomery +2500

The sportsbook has also set odds on which team Cam Newton will be on next season, and the Panthers aren’t favored. 

Another fun speculation prop bet on the board, mostly prompted by Philip Rivers’ poor outing Monday night, involves three quarterbacks selected in the 2004 NFL Draft and which of them will retire first.

Week 12 prop bets: 

Cam Newton team in Week 1 of 2020 regular season

Chicago Bears +250

Cincinnati Bengals +300

Carolina Panthers +400

Denver Broncos +500

Miami Dolphins +500

Los Angeles Chargers +900

Pittsburgh Steelers +900

Tennessee Titans +900

New England Patriots +1000

Tampa Bay Bucs +1200

Who will announce retirement first?

Eli Manning -200

Philip Rivers +200

Ben Roethlisberger +300

Finally, here are the current miss/make playoffs odds for 23 teams SportsBetting

The best NFL picks are at OffshoreInsiders.com    

NBA Free Pick, Sharp Betting Info Wednesday, November 20

If you follow us on Twitter you have the betting percentages and breakdown of Toledo-Buffalo, Akron-Miami Ohio. There is an underdog that is a strong public bet tonight. Now here is the NBA sharp and square analysis:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Toronto, Miami, Boston

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Detroit, San Antonio, Philadelphia

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Minnesota 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: LA Clippers opened -5 to -7

Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. Yes, it hurt sales short-term that I did not release a football pick Monday or Tuesday. But my talent and credibility is why I remain on top of this industry after 31 years. Quality over quantity saw Western Conference Total of Month win with Golden State under easily. Finally, Wise Guy college football side Wednesday. Two NBA led by Wise Guy and college basketball.  Get the picks now

Free pick from NBA

UTAH -3 Minnesota 

Road favorites off a loss under specific situations especially is 748-597-20. A subsystem is 708-555-19. 

Alabama Worst National Championship Odds Since 2010

The season-ending injury to Tua Tagovailoa has had a significant impact on the Tide’s title chances, according to the sportsbooks led by SportsBetting.

Last week, Alabama had 10/1 championship odds after losing to LSU. Today, SportsBetting.ag has doubled the Tide’s odds, likely because of Tagovailoa’s injury, as well as key wins by Georgia and Oklahoma. 

Alabama’s title odds haven’t been this high since the 2010 season. 

Oklahoma’s odds remained unchanged from last week while Georgia’s odds dropped from 9/1 to 7/1. Oregon’s odds moved from 25/1 to 16/1. 

Penn State is still a longshot but saw the largest drop, going from 100/1 to 50/1. Baylor (66/1 to 250/1) and Minnesota (50/1 to 150/1) saw their chances fall significantly following losses.

Current odds:

CFP Championship
Ohio State2/1
LSU5/2
Clemson5/2
Georgia7/1
Oklahoma16/1
Oregon16/1
Alabama20/1
Utah40/1
Penn State50/1
Minnesota150/1
Baylor250/1

OffshoreInsiders.com continues to be the place for winning sports picks. 

NFL Free Pick Week 11, Sharp Betting Info

Ready to crush the NFL odds week 11? Time for a sharp report with info that every pro gambler wants to know and so should you. It’s the same old song as far as who the public is betting. Of course road favorites are the rage, but a road underdog is also among the most popular public wagers. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Dallas, New England, Kansas City, New York Jets

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Dallas, New York Jets

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Atlanta, San Francisco 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. There is no dispute among pro bettors that he is the best capper. He’s also the hottest. I am 13-2 lately in the NFL and the best is coming today! Four, yes four NFL Wise Guys led by Fox Early Kickoff Total of the year among eight NFL winners. You are either with us or subsidizing us by keeping the bookies alive. Either way, we thank you.

Yep, 6-3 overall yesterday, winning in both football and basketball. We’ve added three NBA winnerstwo are Wise Guys led by Sunday Night NBA Game of the Year.  Get the picks now

Critical NFL injuries:

  • Eagles RB Jordan Howard is out
    • He has 525 yards on 119 carries
    • Rookie Myles Sanders, with 336 yards on 76 carries and 305 receiving yards, will get bulk of carries
  • Jets RB Le’Veon Bell is probable
  • Bears rookie RB David Montgomery game-time decision 
  • 49ers WR Emmanuel Sanders probable
    • 43 catches for 528 yards and 4 TDs
  • 49ers TE George Kittle is out
    • 46 receptions

Free NFL pick from Joe Duffy is:

New York Jets-Washington UNDER 38

I’ve said time and time again that handicapping totals in any sport has much more to do with pace than offensive or defensive competence. An angle here says two teams with very low snap counts go under 71-43-1. 

College Football Sharp Bet Moves, Free Pick, Weather

College football sharp report for Saturday, November 16 sees the not-so-shocking road favorites again taking center stage. We see one of the biggest favorites in history as a major sportsbook liability and some fairly low-profile games as sharp versus square.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Alabama, Kansas State, Virginia Tech, Texas

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Eastern Michigan, Ohio State, Southern Miss

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Rice, Georgia State, Northern Illinois, Duke

To critical weather.

GameWind Speed
Tulane at Temple15 mph
Wisconsin at Nebraska17 mph
UL Monroe at Georgia Southern16 mph
West Virginia at Kansas State16 mph
Texas at Iowa State15 mph
Louisville at NC State19 mph

Free winning pick from Joe Duffy:

INDIANA +14.5 Penn State

Bubble burst angles that has to do with fading teams off devastating losses is 394-284. I have several nuanced versions of it. True, in some cases, this season has not been the best. However, the theory is the higher they go, the harder they fall. This applies here and this version is 11-2. It is arguably one of the strongest free picks of the season and got enormous consideration for a premium pick at Joe Duffy’s Picks.

Top expert pick on today’s card is from LateInfo: 7:30 Big Red is a major figure and pioneer in offshore betting. He has unique access to professional oddsmakers and gamblers. All his bets are based on consulting with elite handicappers, pro bettors and linesmakers and tops the list of sources for LateInfo. Fourth straight NCAAF winner is Oklahoma vs. Baylor side.  Get the picks now

LateInfo goes back to the scorephone days and is only activated when critical info comes in from a proven big money source.