Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy is 7-3 with bowl picks. Wise Guy college football prime time winning side. Seven NBA winners led by four Wise Guys. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Night college basketball winner added. Get the picks now
One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 69 percent. Another top model has our side covering 55 percent.
KenPom has it as a one-point game. Obviously a mild edge, but still mild corroboration is better than cancelling pick. Massey agrees with the one-point contest.
Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has NFL Wise Guy.I went 4-2 NBA yesterday, nailing only Wise Guy.Five NBA Wise Guys, side and four totals.Get the picks now
NBA free pick is
DENVER -6.5 Houston
The much more disappointing offense based on delta points scored is 403-306-14. Delta points scored is how many points they scored relative to the oddsmakers posted team total or implied total based on the odds and spread. Houston covered their only game, while Denver is 0-2 by -9.5 ppg. Regression to the mean angle says go with bad ats team versus a good one that is 252-195-6.
Both of our contrarian indexes, one worldwide sportsbooks, the other has to do with super-square outlaw money, has Houston as the public play and public dogs die. It is rare when both our indexes have fairly strong contrarian bets that point towards betting on the favorite.
Best teams to bet on in college basketball based on ATS margin. Minimum of three lined contests.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Missouri State
3-0
+17
UC Riverside
3-0-1
+14.2
Kent State
3-0
+13.3
Drake
8-0
+13.3
Winthrop
5-0
+12.7
Baylor
6-0
+12.7
Best teams to bet against in college basketball based on ATS margin. Minimum of three lined contests.
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Long Beach State
1-2
-14.5
San Jose State
0-4
-13.6
Northern Illinois
0-7
-13.2
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
The Gonzaga Bulldogs are rolling this season, and have around 50/50 odds to become the fourth team to complete an undefeated season going in to the NCAA Tournament.
Since 1979, only UNLV, Wichita State and Kentucky have accomplished the flawless feat.
U.S. sportsbook SportsBetting has made the Zags a small underdog to complete an undefeated season. None of the aforementioned teams went on to win the title, and Gonzaga has 4/1 odds to do so.
Gonzaga is a 39-point favorite tonight against Northern Arizona.
Also below are updated NCAA Championship odds as well as the latest Wooden Award odds, where Iowa’s Luka Garza is an enormous favorite.
Will Gonzaga finish the regular season and WCC tournament undefeated? Yes +100 No -130
Will Gonzaga finish the 2020-21 season undefeated? (Regular season, conference tournament and NCAA Tournament included) Yes +400 No -625
Will Gonzaga be a No. 1 seed in the NCAA Tournament? Yes -400 No +275
Will Gonzaga be No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament? Yes -300 No +225
Will Gonzaga reach Final Four in the NCAA Tournament? Yes -200 No +160
NCAA Championship
Gonzaga 4/1 Baylor 10/1 Villanova 11/1 Kansas 12/1 Iowa 13/1 Illinois 16/1 Michigan State 20/1 West Virginia 25/1 Texas 25/1 Wisconsin 25/1 Virginia 28/1 Tennessee 28/1 Creighton 28/1 Texas Tech 33/1 Duke 33/1 Indiana 33/1 Florida State 33/1 San Diego State 33/1 Kentucky 40/1 North Carolina 40/1 Michigan 40/1 Ohio State 45/1 Arizona State 45/1 Houston 47/1 NC State 47/1 Florida 50/1 LSU 60/1 Oregon 60/1 Purdue 70/1 Alabama 70/1 SMU 70/1 Xavier 70/1 UCLA 70/1 Penn State 70/1 Auburn 70/1 Missouri 70/1 Stanford 70/1 Louisville 80/1 Arkansas 80/1 Richmond 80/1 Connecticut 80/1 Clemson 80/1 Arizona 80/1 Rutgers 90/1 Colorado 90/1 Memphis 90/1 Butler 90/1 Marquette 100/1 Maryland 100/1 Oklahoma 100/1 Miami 100/1 Virginia Tech 100/1 USC 100/1 Syracuse 100/1 Notre Dame 100/1 Providence 100/1 Georgetown 100/1 Iowa State 100/1 Wichita State 100/1 St. Louis 110/1 Seton Hall 125/1 Washington 125/1 BYU 150/1 Utah 150/1 Cincinnati 150/1 South Carolina 150/1 Texas A&M 150/1 Minnesota 150/1 Georgia 150/1 Georgia Tech 150/1
Wooden Award
Luka Garza -385 Ayo Dosunmu +440 Corey Kispert +1000 Drew Timme +1200 Jalen Suggs +1200 Cade Cunningham +2500 Jared Butler +2500 Trayce Jackson-Davis +2500 Jeremiah Robinson-Earl +4000 Garrison Brooks +8000 James Bouknight +8000 Marcus Zegarowski +8000 McKinley Wright IV +8000 Ochai Agbaji +8000 Quentin Grimes +8000 Remy Martin +8000 Cam Thomas +10000 Collin Gillespie +10000 Derek Culver +10000 Evan Mobley +10000 Jalen Crutcher +10000 Keyontae Johnson +10000 Nate Reuvers +10000 Sam Hauser +10000 Kofi Cockburn +12000 MaCio Teague +12000 Matt Coleman III +12000 Matthew Hurt +12000 B.J Boston +15000 Chris Smith +15000
Play the entire year to see Alabama and Clemson play in the National Championship game again? Oddsmakers have given a glimpse into the future of the CFP National Championship game on January 11.
International sportsbook SportsBetting has set odds for the four scenarios that could play out for the CFP title game.
Power of every legitimate sports service pick, computer ranking, known syndicates behind us, we give you the highest rated bets from the top sources in their highest rated sports is the MasterLockLine and the start is unprecedented.
Entire card 3 ET or later. 6 at 6 ET or later, 5 at 7 ET or later. 2-1-1 in college hardwood yesterday, makes MLL 34-7 this season, building on the best start in history of betting. 22-9 overall, 35-7 all basketball picks! Get the picks now
NBA
OKLAHOMA CITY +5 Houston
This line is all over the place as James Harden’s status in doubt because he may have broken Covid protocal. Road teams in revenge of playoff elimination are 62-37 unless they are big favorites. The fact it’s a 62.6 percent bet even though it’s 34-65 SU is telling. Of course it is another example of the stupidity of the inductive, “Just go with the team you think will win outright, because they will likely cover.” But it does make sense. The team with the chip on their shoulder will fight to the end, while the team that won the playoff series will happily escape with a home win.
True, with Harden controversy, I could not make it a premium pick, but a strong bet at this number. I bet at Bovada
Ohio State +7 Clemson -7 Over/Under: 65 Moneyline: Ohio State +250, Clemson -300
The previous high for a CFP spread was at the 2019 Orange Bowl where Alabama was a 14.5-point against Oklahoma.
List of CFP Spreads (sorted by biggest spread) 2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama (-19) vs. Notre Dame 2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma 2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU (-12.5) vs. Oklahoma 2016/17 Peach Bowl: Alabama (-12.5) vs. Washington 2018/19 Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame 2015/16 Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State 2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-7.5) vs. Ohio State 2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) vs. Florida State 2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson (-7) vs. Ohio State
– Favorites are 9-3 straight up and 8-4 against the spread in semifinal history – Favorites are 10-7 straight up and 8-9 against the spread in CFP history
The totals for this year’s two CFP semis are the fifth and sixth highest, respectively.
List of CFP Totals (sorted by highest totals) 2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oregon (80.5) 2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma (75) 2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Florida State (74) 2014/15 CFP NCG: Oregon vs. Ohio State (72.5) 2020/21 Rose Bowl: Alabama vs. Notre Dame (65.5) 2020/21 Sugar Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (65) 2019/20 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (63.5) 2017/18 Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia (62.5) 2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oklahoma (61.5)
– Overs are 9-8 in CFP history – Overs are 5-7 in CFP semifinal history
History is not on Notre Dame’s side as the biggest upset in CFP history was just 7.5 points.
List of CFP Upsets (sorted by biggest upset) 2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (+7.5) over Alabama 2016/17 CFP NCG: Clemson (+6.5) over Alabama 2014/15 CFP NCG: Ohio State (+6) vs. Oregon 2018/19 CFP NCG: Clemson (+5) over Alabama 2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson (+3.5) over Oklahoma 2016/17 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson (+1) over Ohio State
In terms of CFP National Championship odds, Alabama is the odds-on favorite.
The MasterLockLine is as hot as it has been since restart. If you buy picks elsewhere, you will never experience as 23-4 run. Winning since 1980 on the scorephones, two college basketball and two college football winners tonight. Get the picks now
Free pick from Joe Duffy is:
Montana State-Washington State UNDER 133.5
Washington State is thinned by injuries with upperclassmen Aljaz Kunc and Tony Miller both likely out. Head coach Kyle Smith has slowed the pace, knowing he can’t go deep into bench. Kunc averages 9.7 ppg and kept defenses honest with his presence down low.
The Cougars are 12th in the nation in field goal defense. This will slow down a Montana State offense that will see its toughest test. WSU is 254th in offensive efficiency based on points per 100 possessions. I bet at Bet Now
I was insanely thrilled to get sports back after the pandemic shutdown. As the adage goes, be be careful what you ask for, as the all-time outlier occurred. I went in my worst slump in 32 years as a handicapper and several years before that as a gambler. Write it up to being 2020? Yes-but nuanced. The devil is in the details.
I’ve always affirmed that bookmakers and squares loathe uncertainty, but sharps exploit it. But that’s because of the “predictable unpredictability” of sports betting. But in unprecedented times, the unpredictability was…unpredictable for once. The world being upended meant tested and confirmed regression to the mean and other models lacked the normal conditions to apply.
But why do the biggest slumps I’ve ever had continually, and I do mean always and forever get followed by even greater winning streaks? Do I have a guardian angel? Nope. We stay the course. When squares profit short-term, the books know they will double-down on same techniques—generally favorites and overs, though it is a little more complex than that. Books have to adjust, only strengthening the sharpest pro bettor angles in a freakish decline.
A great quote from It’s a Wonderful Life “Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why.” Not surprisingly, we have a lot more demonstrated winning systems favoring unders in NFL. If you are a long-term client, you’ve cashed in for many years with us. The first four weeks of NFL 2020 saw all games over 36-22-5 for greater than 62 percent. Books were saying both privately to me and in public articles, they can’t keep getting parched by overs, so they shaded the lines. We didn’t panic and after a 7-7 week 5, 56 percent of NFL games have gone under. That’s not our bets, that’s just overall in the league.
And our top systems have been hitting over 60 percent since markets righted themselves—again. Just as they always do.
But Joeybagodonuts is still chasing his losses, forever hoping he can replicate the magic of the squares getting the big upper hand early. When we say the winning streaks always have outnumbered and outlasted the rare losing streaks, it’s from decades of experience and wisdom as to why it happens.
The biggest lesson of 2020 for sports bettors is when you have proven metrics, you need to persevere. Don’t jump off a ship that has scientifically proven it won’t sink. You will only drown by leaping overboard.
I’ll bet Mr. Potter was a shrewd gambler.
The author, Joe Duffy CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com is enjoying punishing the bookies for getting a rare upper hand in the early weeks of football. So are the other services on said site, LateInfo topping the list.
OffshoreInsiders.com CEO Joe Duffy breaks down key intel for week 15 NFL betting.
Road teams on grass off a game in which they were held to single-digit points and less than 125 rushing yards are 75-24-3 on grass. This favors New England over Miami
Teams averaging less than 1.7 turnovers per game are 37-5-1 when off a game as home underdogs, facing a team averaging at least 12.75 first downs per game. This favors Detroit over Tennessee
Atlanta Falcons all-world WR Julio Jones is questionable missing practice Thursday
Cowboys star RB Zeke Elliot questionable-to-probable after missing practice ThursdayTea leaves say mostly a precaution, so we think he’ll play
Panthers superstar RB Christian McCaffrey doubtfulPanthers play Saturday night
Giants QB Daniel Jones is questionableSources say a slight lean in the probable direction
Redskins RB Antonio Smith and QB Alex Smith are both questionable
Bengals RB Joe Mixon remains out
Top expert pick is from Joe Duffy. 16-8 NFL. Three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get the picks now
Top sportsbook consensus, percentage of:
✅Bets: Cleveland (73), Houston (71)
✅Money: San Francisco (95), Tampa (89), LA Rams (86)
Biggest line moves at top books such as MyBookie NFL live lines, latest odds (lookahead opener followed by current): Tampa -1.5 to -6, Rams -13.5 to -17.5, Minnesota -6 down to -3, Seattle -3 to -5.5
Best teams to bet on based on margin of cover
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
Miami
10-3
+7.5
Washington
8-5
+5
Pittsburgh
8-5
+3.5
Best teams to bet against based on margin of cover
Team
ATS Record
ATS margin
NY Jets
4-9
-16.2
Dallas
3-10
-6
LA Chargers
6-7
-5.2
Detroit
6-7
-4
Biggest over teams
Team
OU Record
OU margin
Cleveland
8-5
+6.7
Tennessee
9-3-1
+6.3
Las Vegas
9-3-1
+6.1
Biggest under teams
Team
OU Record
OU margin
NY Giants
3-10
-5.3
LA Rams
4-9
-3.8
Miami
5-8
-3.2
Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer.
Joe Duffy has three college football winners Friday led by two Wise Guys, including Friday Night Game of the Year. Saturday, it is five college football led by three Wise Guys. Sunday, seven NFL Wise Guy bets as we build on our run. Get it at OffshoreInsiders.com
Free college basketball winner from Joe Duffy for Wednesday.
OHIO STATE +5 Purdue
Oddsmakers overreact to E.J. Liddell probably being out. One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate 64 percent, with O-H winning by a point. Another top model has our side covering 59.8 percent. KenPom has Purdue winning by just a point. Of course I am concerned about the injury, but look for Buckeyes to make zone adjustments and stay within number at Bet Now
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