Nice night as JDP goes 3-1 on Sunday. A much bigger day today with three NBA Wise Guys, three NBA Majors. This is the scary good intel that goes into every pick, every day at Joe Duffy’s Picks. Wise Guy plays from Joe Duffy are the single strongest bet in gambling. Get the picks now 

Free pick:

DETROIT +8 Denver

Road underdogs under .500 on ATS losing streak versus an unrested team on pointspread winning streak are 922-676-30. Regression to the mean based on overall record and spread streak is 708-547-28. Fade teams off a win in which they gave up a lot of assists is 677-538-22. Combining the first to makes is 362-231-12 for 61 percent. 

We’re more than a month into the NBA season, and while the title favorite remains the same, all of the favorites for individual honors have changed. SportsBetting has updated its odds for Most Valuable Player, Rookie of the Year, Defensive Player of the Year, Sixth Man and Most Improved Player, which you can find below. 

Luka Doncic was installed as the preseason favorite for MVP with 5/1 odds, followed by Giannis Antetokounmpo (6/1) and Steph Curry (7/1). 

Joel Embiid, the current favorite, started the year with 25/1 odds. If Embiid went on to take MVP, he would be the first center since the Clinton administration to do so (Shaquille O’Neal, 1999-2000).

James Wiseman (5/1) and Anthony Edwards (6/1) were ROY favorites, but now two players are in front of them on the odds board. 

Jordan Clarkson had 9/1 Sixth Man odds at the outset of the season while Jaylen Brown was listed at 66/1 to take home MIP honors two months ago. 

Current NBA awards odds fromSportsBetting 

MVP 
Joel Embiid 3/1
LeBron James 7/2
Nikola Jokic 5/1
Luka Doncic 6/1
Kevin Durant 7/1
Giannis Antetokounmpo 11/1
Stephen Curry 12/1
Damian Lillard 25/1
Anthony Davis 28/1
Kawhi Leonard 33/1
James Harden 40/1
Paul George 50/1
Jaylen Brown 66/1
Jayson Tatum 75/1
Kyrie Irving 100/1

ROY 
LaMelo Ball 1/1
Tyrese Haliburton 2/1
James Wiseman 5/1
Anthony Edwards 15/2
Immanuel Quickley 15/2
Cole Anthony 15/1
Payton Pritchard 20/1
Tyrese Maxey 33/1
Patrick Williams 50/1
Xavier Tillman 50/1
Deni Avdija 70/1
Isaac Okoro 70/1
Devin Vassell 80/1

DPOY 
Anthony Davis 2/1
Rudy Gobert 5/2
Myles Turner 3/1
Giannis Antetokounmpo 7/1
Ben Simmons 10/1
Joel Embiid 12/1
Bam Adebayo 25/1
Draymond Green 35/1
Kawhi Leonard 40/1
Marcus Smart 75/1
Clint Capela 80/1
Patrick Beverley 80/1

Sixth Man 
Jordan Clarkson 1/2
Chris Boucher 7/1
Montrezl Harrell 9/1
Goran Dragic 10/1
Jeff Teague 10/1
Tyler Herro 10/1
Terrence Ross 12/1
Lou Williams 20/1
Gary Trent Jr. 28/1
Norman Powell 40/1
Austin RIvers 50/1
Bobby Portis 66/1
Carmelo Anthony 66/1
Luke Kennard 66/1
Aaron Holiday 80/1
Brandon Clarke 80/1
Danilo Gallinari 80/1
Davis Bertans 80/1
DeMarcus Cousins 80/1
Grant Williams 80/1
JJ Redick 80/1
Joe Ingles 80/1
Rodney Hood 80/1
Trey Burke 80/1
Eric Paschall 100/1
Keldon Johnson 100/1
Kyle Kuzma 100/1
Larry Nance Jr. 100/1
Rajon Rondo 100/1

Most Improved 
Jaylen Brown 2/1
Christian Wood 5/2
Jerami Grant 5/2
Chris Boucher 8/1
Jaren Jackson Jr. 20/1
Michael Porter Jr. 20/1
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander 25/1
Ja Morant 66/1
Andrew Wiggins 80/1
OG Anunoby 80/1
Zion Williamson 80/1
Darius Bazley 100/1
De’Aaron Fox 100/1
Keldon Johnson 100/1
Lauri Markkanen 100/1
Luguentz Dort 100/1
Shake Milton 100/1
Tyler Herro 100/1

Well, that didn’t take long. 

Matthew Stafford is on his way to L.A., and the Rams have seen their Super Bowl LVI chances greatly increase with a seasoned gunslinger under center.

Early last week, SportsBetting had pegged the Rams with 18/1 odds to win next year’s Super Bowl, which was tied for eighth-best. 

Following the trade for Stafford, Los Angeles is now in solo third on the odds board at 10/1. 

The Lions, already a longshot with 80/1 odds last week, are now tied for the worst odds with Jacksonville at 150/1.

Below are the current Super Bowl LVI odds from SportsBetting 
Super Bowl LVI Odds –

Kansas City Chiefs 6/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 9/1
Los Angeles Rams 10/1
Buffalo Bills 11/1
Green Bay Packers 12/1
Baltimore Ravens 12/1
New Orleans Saints 15/1
San Francisco 49ers 18/1
Seattle Seahawks 20/1
Indianapolis Colts 25/1
Miami Dolphins 25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 25/1
Cleveland Browns 28/1
Dallas Cowboys 28/1
Tennessee Titans 28/1
Los Angeles Chargers 33/1
Minnesota Vikings 33/1
New England Patriots 33/1
Arizona Cardinals 40/1
Chicago Bears 40/1
Las Vegas Raiders 50/1
Philadelphia Eagles 50/1
Denver Broncos 50/1
Atlanta Falcons 66/1
Carolina Panthers 66/1
New York Giants 66/1
Houston Texans 66/1
Washington Football Team 66/1
Cincinnati Bengals 100/1
New York Jets 100/1
Detroit Lions 150/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 150/1

Oh what a day! Interconference Total of the Year among two NBA Wise Guys, plus five NBA Majors. Named plays have hit 56 percent or higher in all sports, every calendar year. Get the picks now

NBA

Free

PHILADELPHIA -7 Minnesota

Road teams playing a bad team and in a bad stretch of defensive efforts are undervalued 132-82-1. Fade big home dogs if not off a low scoring game and with a substantial amount of rest and neither team has an extreme winning percentage is 520-364-27. 

Big bet tonight.  NBA Interconference Game of the Month is among three NBA, two Wise Guys. I should not give away too much, but let’s just say those of my clients who have been with me since the 1980s have won with this angle for more than 30 years straight and, yes as if you needed an “and” it is also backed by a newly acquired angle. It’s big.

College basketball is heating up big time for us. College basketball side as well to make it 4-0. Get the picks now

Free

LA Lakers-Detroit UNDER 214.5

This is indicative of the executive decisions required by your Grandmaster Handicapper. So many of our systems are counterintuitive and use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Many massive syndicates are using very similar systems as us. 

Because a half-point variance in the saved system and half-point discrepancy in which books are software are tied into can trigger a bet, yes sometimes a line move can in fact trigger an alert where we wind up chasing steam. 

If you don’t completely follow, that’s okay. That is why pros pay me to track it. When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 1493-1140-51. A total based on recent form compared to the total goes under 739-456-34. 

One of our top projection models did 10,000 simulations and found them covering at a rate of 62 percent with 209 points expected. But our other model says the steam decreased the probability of under by about seven percent. This is why it falls just short of a premium bet. Chasing steam has pitfalls. 

I bet at Bovada

Joe Duffy sweeps last night with LSU and Knicks UNDER. Tonight is even bigger. Four NBA winners led by three Wise Guys, topped by Western Conference Interdivisional Total of the Year. Get the picks now 

Free

BROOKLYN -6.5 Atlanta 

Brooklyn is 2-4 SU road, while Atlanta 5-3 SU home, yet Nets a huge away favorite. Anti-splits angle in which we go with road favorite with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is 524-391-22. 

Big away favorites versus opponent off win is 487-335-16. Big favorites in same season revenge are 835-693-41 including 60 percent since 2013. Road teams more rested are 387-305-9. James Harden, Kevin Durant and Kyrie Irving starting to gel a bit. 

Joe Duffy sweeps last night with LSU and Knicks UNDER. Tonight is even bigger. Four NBA winners led by three Wise Guys, topped by Western Conference Interdivisional Total of the Year. Get the picks now 

Free

MIAMI FLORIDA +11 Florida State

Miami matches up very well defensively as they defend the pick and roll and the rim competently, so a blowout is unlikely. 

Betting on some regression as FSU has been shooting the lights out over their last four ranging from 48 percent to 70 percent, while Miami shooting just 39 percent their last two. The three-point difference even bigger. But that short-term difference has this line bloated. 

It doesn’t sound like Matthew Stafford will be around for the Dan Campbell era in Detroit. 

The relationship between Stafford and the Lions’ brass appears too fractured to recover, especially after the team did not retain offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell, so let’s take a look at where the odds project the quarterback landing.

SportsBetting an online sportsbook only available in Colorado, has (possibly optimistically) made the Broncos the favorites in the Stafford sweepstakes. 

It’s interesting to see the Cowboys in the top 5 in terms of odds. Stafford grew up north of Dallas with good friend Clayton Kershaw…could he be returning to his roots?

Below are the opening odds for Stafford’s next team and you can find current ones here: 

 
Matthew Stafford next team
Denver Broncos 3/1
Indianapolis Colts 4/1
Washington Football Team 5/1
Chicago Bears 6/1
Dallas Cowboys 8/1
New England Patriots 9/1
Carolina Panthers 10/1
New York Jets 10/1
Los Angeles Rams 12/1
Las Vegas Raiders 12/1
Houston Texans 12/1
Miami Dolphins 12/1
New Orleans Saints 15/1
San Francisco 49ers 20/1
Philadelphia Eagles 20/1
Atlanta Falcons 25/1
Green Bay Packers 25/1
Jacksonville Jaguars 25/1
Pittsburgh Steelers 30/1
Minnesota Vikings 30/1
New York Giants 30/1
Tennessee Titans 50/1
Cleveland Browns 50/1
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 100/1
Arizona Cardinals 100/1
Cincinnati Bengals 125/1
Baltimore Ravens 150/1
Los Angeles Chargers 150/1
Buffalo Bills 200/1
Seattle Seahawks 200/1
Kansas City Chiefs 300/1

I told you in December why the best was ahead of us. And it’s been promises made, promises delivered ever since. Off an 11-3 weekend, 10-2 in hoops. Seven NBA winners led by three Wise Guys continues the winning. Under teams become over bets. That applies twice today, though none apply to our Wise Guys, so it is common, yet not our strongest intel tonight. Get the picks now 

Free winner:

BOSTON -4 Chicago

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 361-232-12. Road favorites off of a win that broke a losing streak 440-316-15.

Best NBA teams to bet on based on ATS margin:

 Best NBA teams to bet against based on ATS margin:

Margin of cover is a long-time tool of original cappers used to measure the reliability of the often deceptive ATS and OU records. It is much like margin of victory, except it measures margin relative to the point spread or OU. With over-under, “overs” are listed first. Some Johnny-Come-Lately handicappers call this the sweat barometer. 

We win! TNT Interconference Total of the Year wins on Milwaukee-Lakers UNDER was easy. Five winners in the NBA led by Southwest Divisional Total of the Year. Three are Wise Guys.

Looking for a great capper? Taking people behind the scenes of all the work that goes into every pick, every day at Joe Duffy’s Picks has convinced a few more to become sharp bettors. Are you ready? Get the picks now 

Free pick:

ATLANTA -6 Minnesota 

Road favorites or small underdogs on a high scoring streak is 359-231-12 as Atlanta has topped 106 in three straight. Road favorites versus teams off home win or very close loss are 588-463-24. Our top-rated simulator program has them covering 67 percent of time, winning by 12. Our second best model has them covering 55.8 percent, winning by nine. MasseyRatings gives a mild edge to Atlanta.