At GodsTips, we ordered an internal audit of our picks. We wanted to find if there was a clear-cut pattern as to when, why, and how our picks won. We studied the records and analysis with each pick.
We scoured over years and years of data, picks, and intel used to support the bets. Many times we hit 60-70 percent over thousands of games, other times in the lower to mid 50 percentile.
In short, the most apparent deviation was when we allowed technology to supersede old-fashioned time-proven metrics.
The sport that stood out was college basketball. Injuries, especially players returning from such, scheduling dynamics, clear-cut emotional letdown situations and more are still the key to isolating off-lines.
Most notably, we have returned to the windfall days of where we would, “concentrate the most where the oddsmaker’s concentrate the least.”
Notice how we have converged on those metrics again more than ever. Oh, technology will continue to enhance our winners, just no longer supersede the most important lead indicators.
Sunday, December 2, 2012
Major…
ST. LOUIS -6 Valparaiso
Perhaps is it impure to exploit it, but we always say it is impossible to manufacture emotion. It must be there. There is no question the Billikens will have a lot of extra emotion following the death of just-retired coach Rick Majerus.
Valparaiso is the least experienced team in the nation according to a ranking system by StatSheet.com. It is a very tough situation for them to handle.
Saturday, December 1, 2012
Wise Guy…
WYOMING -3 Colorado
The Cowboys haven’t lost at home to a non-conference foe since a 68-62 defeat to Green Bay on Dec. 22, 2010, and the Buffaloes will be playing their first road game in very high elevation. Off to a good start, it is a big look ahead as Colorado leaves their cushy home schedule.
The No. 19 Buffs’ next four opponents – beginning with unbeaten (7-0) Wyoming on Saturday night in Laramie – are a combined 24-4. After the bus ride north, CU comes home to face Colorado State (6-0) on Wednesday night, travels to No. 10 Kansas (7-1) on Saturday, Dec. 8, then trips to Fresno State (4-3) on Wednesday, Dec. 12.
Major…
WASHINGTON STATE -10.5 Portland
State has two of of their three losses by two points or less, one on OT, the other at the buzzer. Their third loss was to powerhouse Kansas. This team is much better than their record as all four wins are by nine or more, three by 18 or more. All three of the Pilots road games have been 15 point or more losses.
Do not look for Portland to put all their emotional eggs into turning it around here. The Pilots return to the Chiles Center to host No. 20 UNLV on Tuesday. Portland then heads to Lexington, Kent. to face the defending national champion Kentucky Wildcats at Rupp Arena on Saturday, Dec. 8 at 9 a.m. (PST).
Portland is 3-0 at home this season, but 0-3 on the road. At the Chiles Center the Pilots are scoring 70.0 points and allowing 60.3, while on the road UP is averaging 56.7 and surrendering 77.7 points. The Pilots have a +8.3 rebounding margin at home and -5.0 on the road.
NEBRAKA-OMAHA +24 South Dakota State
SDSU has won 20 straight home games, yet they are 0-2 ATS at home and looked shaky in their non-lined home game.
The Jackrabbit men return to action after a thrilling buzzer-beating win over North Dakota on Wednesday, when Chad White hit a three-pointer as the final horn sounded to give the Jacks a 71-70 win over UND.
The shot marked the fourth time this season that an SDSU game came down to the final shot, and the second time that last shot fell in favor of the Jackrabbits, both times off the hands of White.
Trailing 70-68 with 12 seconds left in Wednesday’s game, the Jacks took the ball up the floor, where it ended up in White’s hands with time ticking down. The junior from Madison took an off balance shot from the left corner and it fell in as the buzzer sounded.
The Jackrabbits lost the 2012-13 season opener at Alabama on a 3-point buzzer beater and lost at Hofstra on Nov. 16 on a 3-pointer with three seconds left.
The Jacks turned the tables on Nov. 17 vs. Marshall, as Chad White hit a 3-pointer with two seconds left to lift SDSU to a win. White did it again on Wednesday, hitting an off-balance 3-pointer as the horn sounded to give the Jacks a 71-70 win over North Dakota.
Now they have a big look ahead game at tough Minnesota. Oh we know Omaha has a contest to Wisconsin the same night, but they are the ones getting points and it is the big favorites that are susceptible to letdowns and sandwich games.
With the four buzzer beaters they have had this year and a big statement game to a BCS school coming up, how can they possibly be focused on this game?
NORTH TEXAS -8 Louisiana Lafayette
The Cajuns are definitely piling up the mileage during the early part of the 2012-13 season. After making a road swing to Texas Southern and Boise State two weeks ago that covered 4,332 miles, the Cajuns needed to travel 4,892 miles to play games at New Mexico State and Michigan State. In two weeks, Louisiana played five games in five different states (Louisiana included) and three different time zones, traveling 9,224 miles to get to and from the games. This weekends trip to Denton is a relatively short one totaling just 856 miles round trip – by bus.
It will be their 7th game in 15 days. The trips the last two weekends were hurt by busy airline schedules. Despite playing a Sunday afternoon game at Boise State, the Cajuns had to wait until the next morning to begin the trip home, leaving the hotel at 7:30 a.m. (MST). The squad landed in Lafayatte 10 hours later at 6:30 p.m. (CST). This past weekend, travel went well until it was time to come home and the Cajuns flight from Grand Rapids, Mich. to Houston was delayed enough to cause the team to miss their connecting flight home.
With a lineup featuring six freshmen and four sophomore, they will hit a wall here.
EVANSVILLE +9 Colorado State
The matchup against Evansville for the Rams comes just four days before the showdown at No. 19 CU-Boulder next Wednesday. Conversely the Purple Aces will have their star player close to full strength for the first time. Colt Ryan, who missed significant minutes in three games this year before returning to the lineup Monday in a victory over Alabama A&M.
NBA
Wise Guy…
MIAMI -8.5 Brooklyn
The Nets are certainly a major surprise, but they come back to earth here. Brooklyn is playing back-to-back and three games in four nights, while Miami is playing just their second game in six days, so no question who the more rested team is.
Brooklyn has some decent talent, but are not as good as their early start indicates and only four of their 11 SU wins are on the road anyway. The Heat have actually done pretty well avoiding the championship hangover, but have also paced themselves. Getting a road weary overacheiving team at home is the perfect chance to rally around a statement game.
Friday, November 30, 2012
NBA
Major…
CLEVELAND +9 Atlanta
This is a battle of two dichotomous spread and straight up teams. This means if a team is consistently winning outright but failing to cover or losing outright and covering, we ride the spread streak. This has proven to be a way to isolate over and undervalued teams.
Cleveland is 3-12 SU but 4-1 their last five to the number. They have covered three straight on the road even though they are 1-9 SU. On the other hand, Atlanta is 9-4 SU overall, yet 1-6 ATS at home.
The top sports handicappers—and the list is short—always evolve. Enjoy the evolution and revolution at GodsTips. Expect the return to 60 percent plus winners.
