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Mike Godsey (www.godspicks.com)

It is the time of the year when the casual player emerges
from the woodwork but like the rest of the year, only the Wise Guys and the
bookmakers surface with extra change. As many of our articles have reminded
gamblers, so often going against the conventional logic is the way to win while
the sucker money subsidizes our spoils.

In many cases for example what won us money during the
regular season will do so in March, but many new angles are additionally there
for the money grubbing.

Pit the Selection
Committee Against Roxy and
Company

Excluding the ninth seed laying points to the eighth seed,
we still love going with lower seeded favorites to higher seeded teams. That being
said with the caveat of excluding the four-abovementioned games in which the seedings could have been flip-flopped anyway, there have
been tournaments where this does not apply.

But we will more than happily put our money on the
linesmakers exploiting false higher seeds.

Emotion in Short
Run, Talent in the Long Run

When betting half-time lines we have a rare case of what
appears too apparent to actually be true. But the public’s infatuation with
betting the big chalk has prevented this from being a cash cow for the average
Joe. Going with the number 16 seed in the first half has definitely gotten my
associates and I some nice spare change over the
years.

Before making a final decision, I scout the game on the
dish, but very often I will then bet the top seed in the second half. For the
most part, the bottom seeds have guys playing in the biggest game of their
lives bar none. The seniors on the team are in many cases playing in their
final game of organized ball at any level. Others have the ultimate showcase
for the scouts of the foreign leagues.

Finally there is not one guy on the lower seeded teams
that have not dreamt of starring in college hoops version of Lake
Placid or becoming part of the biggest upset in Big Dance history.

All those intangibles for about 20 minutes usually do go a
long way to compensating for the talent deficiency. But over 40 minutes having
infinitely more talent and depth mean, as Dick Vitale would say “Blowout
City baby” in the second half.

Plus if the bottom seed makes the game look interesting
for a while, it serves to wake up the top seed at halftime. The second half
represents an epiphany for the team that spent the first 20 minutes more
concerned with playing two days later. Then the to-be-anticipated bubble-burst happens.

Once the faster, stronger deeper top seed goes on that
inevitable 10-0 burst all the delusions of grandeur come crashing down on Squid
State. The emotional roller coaster
makes its descent. We cash in with the sixteen side in
the first half and the huge chalk in the second.

Beware of the “Guards
Dominate” Trap

I hear it all the time that “It’s a guard dominated game”.
Then a conclusion to the effect, “Handicap the guards first” generally follows.
This conviction is not so much a myth as it is a matter of inductive rather
than deductive reasoning.

The simple fact is that there are a lot more guards out
there than there are centers so just based on pure numbers there will be more
guard-oriented teams that advance. Of course there will be more guard-oriented
teams whose bubble bursts too come selection time. In fact look at the bottom
of each conference and you will find a lot of guard-oriented teams.

If truth be told, the teams that have the big men are the teams that will have
biggest mismatches-literally and figuratively. However again, the
guard-oriented lovers are not falling into a classic go-against trap
completely. In point of fact, smart players handicap teams in their totality.

Sure teams that have great three-point shooters are the
best “shot in the dark” teams on the money line, but conversely if they go cold
can also be great to go against in “pleasers”. They are high risk/high return,
but there are high return/low risk options too.

Don’t Fall in Love With Seniors

It is a simple syllogism: teams with the best players win,
the best players with few exceptions do not stay until their senior year, thus the best teams are not senior laden.

This indisputable truth is becoming more so every year. I
will take the team with talent over the team with experience.

In fact I would be leery of senior-laden favorites over a
young team with a bigger upside and nothing to lose.

Conversely by no means do I suggest always betting against
the more seasoned team. If you are talking about a team that is about a
ten-point dog (that is a team that is not completely overmatched but getting a
decent number of points) there is sufficient reason to bet them to cover,
though not blindly.

The hypotheses of playing in one’s last game in organized ball and showcasing
for the

European scouts can inspire a competitive team to claw to
the end, but I would much rather invest in a team like Arizona,
short on postseason familiarity but high on ability.

Fade the Chic Teams

One of the first questions that the so-called “experts”
take on after the pairings are announced is “Who will the dark horse teams be”.
So often Billy Packer on one network,

Dick Vitale on another, the USA Today on Monday and so
many media hacks and talking heads pick the same team. One year they all love Eastern
Michigan, the next Princeton.

Dark horse teams have the element of surprise and the “no
respect” motivational factor. Once all the regurgitating paparazzi make up its
mind what the flavor of the month is for March, they are no longer dark horses
now are they?

Not only is there no element of surprise, but also what
better way to insure his higher-seeded team does not overlook their opponent
then to point out that the media has labeled their foe as one of the potential
Cinderella teams?

In fact, sight and opponent unseen I would not be surprised if Gonzaga the
three-time bearer of the glass slipper now becomes an early causality because
for the first time they face the burden of high expectation.

Do Not Talk Yourself Into Betting Every Game

I do realize there are casual gamblers who do bet, as I
like to call it “lunch money” on games. As long as they are risking mere
entertainment money to insure that a game is interesting to them, it is
harmless. And there is always a book happy to help out.

However when it comes to betting from ones bankroll, do
not feel that you have to bet whatever game is being televised in your area.
Get DirecTV or go to a sports bar to watch the good investments. Do not check
the morning sports page to see what is on your local channel and convince
yourself it is one of the strongest games on the board. Plus if you choose the
sports bar option, you may get Final Four caliber waitress. Just do not let the
wife know.

But the only true secret to winning in March is of course
visiting Godspicks.com.

It will be yet another Million Dollar March at www.godspicks.com where we burn the midnight oil all month long.  FREE news and notes,
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God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 17

Joe Duffy (www.joeduffy.net)

This is the latest in a series of a Godgepodge of sports betting strategy and other sports handicapping and gaming issues.

Boob Tube Not Always For Boobs

No pornographic intentions, but perhaps I did get your attention. I am a proud parent of three awesome young kids. A lot of what they watch actually can be educational, but there is also a bunch of garbage on TV. For the handicapper there is a certain double edge sword about games they watch, including of course in person. The sports packages now offered also on digital cable (except for the NFL) are an outstanding handicapping tool…or vice. The former should be relatively obvious—the more one scouts, the more knowledgeable one becomes.

However a precursor to a gambling deathblow is when I hear a gasbag tout a play because “I saw Sheboygan on TV the other night and they looked horrible.” Gamblers make too many conclusions based on one game they’ve seen. For whatever reason, my unscientific study indicates such hotdoggers more times than not go against a team that looked horrible rather than with a team that looked great. The sharp player realizes if said clunker was aberrational, it is more likely to be a wake-up call.

But the would-be hotshot apparently knows only what he saw and the shortsightedness won’t let him see anything else.
Using a grand total of one or two games to predict the future is outlandish, yet a common offense among coach potatoes. Want to win more? Some need to watch a lot more TV and others need to watch a lot less. Or maybe that’s where porn does come in. If you overreact to what you see on TV, watching nudity will get you in less trouble.

The Epicenter of Hypocrisy

We call our handicapping website, Godspicks.com the Center of the Handicapping Universe. It looks like my old stomping ground of south Jersey is ready to become the center of gambling self-righteousness as we find out that Phoenix Coyotes coach Rick Tocchet led a, oh no–hide the women a children, a gambling ring.

Yes it’s true that domestic sports gambling is illegal outside of Vegas. I don’t believe we can pick and choose which laws we obey based on whether we agree with them. But unless further details indicate these players and coaches involved bet on NHL games it’s a big non-story.

Just 10 miles down the road from where all hell broke loose is Camden, NJ- a city that two major publications dubbed “America’s Worst City” because of crime, corruption, drugs, illiteracy, poverty and you name it.

Yet the boys in blue of the Garden State spend the tax dollars of my family and friends to bust a bunch of high profile people who committed the heinous crime of taking Villanova and St. Joseph’s under the total.

Like I’ve always said, they could actually tax what should be a legal activity and take the tariff revenue to fight things like crime, corruption, drugs, illiteracy, poverty or build schools.

It seems to me law enforcement in Mount Holly would be better off keeping drugs out of kids hands or even stuffing their pieholes with cheesesteaks. Nah, let’s get those people who want to risk their own legally earned money on an over/under off the streets. It will make me feel secure the next time I go to Ponzio’s Diner and get some black and white cookies.

It’s much ado about nothing. What say you?

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There is no Place Like Home, Except Often the Road
Joe Duffy “www.godspicks.com)
If there is one consistent general theory or category/sub-category that applies to successful handicapping in every sport, it would be exploiting home/road anomalies. That is discovering select teams that play significantly better at home than on the road or in some cases visa versa. In baseball this is also true with pitchers. We feel the term “home/road anomalies” is more accurate than the commonly accepted HFA (home field advantage) that many handicappers use.
This holds to form much more so than any other variances such as rested/unrested in the NBA, lefty/righty stats in baseball, grass/turf in football and baseball, day/night etc. In the NBA in particular nothing jumps out at us more than a team that is a home dog despite a fairly significantly better home SU record than the road team’s away mark. We have explained in previous articles why so many systems and theories that hold up don’t Amake sense@ to the inexpert eye but make dollars to the trained eye.
Obviously in such situations the road team is the better overall team and hence the public still prefers betting the superior team even if closer scrutiny at the home/road anomalies nullifies the supremacy. Then again the notion of the general public actually being aware of the home/road anomalies is laughable anyway.
This is of course assuming there are no major roster changes via injury, trade etc that have changed one or both team’s dynamics.
If injuries or roster changes explain why there is a road favorite, said theory does not apply. Likewise one must still put the circumstances under inspection. In the NBA and NHL “remember them?) for example the schedule maker generally favors the home team. If there is a three game in four nights or five in seven nights versus a much more rested team, it is by and large a scenario that sees the home team benefiting. But sharpies must be aware of both the rule and the exception.
Be cognizant there are actually teams that play better on the road or more accurately from a handicapping standpoint their home/road variance is less than the norm. Thus especially when getting points they become of great value on the highway, but are also great go-against plays at home. The teams with disproportionately better play on the road will sneak under the oddsmaking radar much more than Jekyll & Hyde better-at-home teams.
Boston, Philadelphia, New York and Chicago are examples of sports cities that far and away have the most passionate fans. Passion is a double edged sword. There are no better fans and hence home field/court advantage when the home team is playing well, but conversely when a massive slump hits so often being host is a home field disadvantage.
Pittsburgh is one of the great football towns in the nation and even in the post Steele Curtain days the Steelers were pretty invincible at home. It’s unlikely anyone knowledgeable would dispute the fervor of the faithful intensified their HFA. But the easily rattled mega talented Kordell Stewart was a much better quarterback on the road throughout his career than at he was the confluence of the Allegheny, Ohio and Monongahela. The boo-birds became the 12th man for the wrong team. This is a prime example as circumstances changed there was also a colossal modulation in home/road variance.
Conversely the same can be true but for completely different reasons in Miami and Atlanta for example. Arguably the two worst pro sports towns in the USA the empty arena at Phillips Arena in Atlanta for the Hawks is no benefit but when things are going well the bandwagon fills up quickly. Ask the Heat. One pony towns like Portland and Sacramento had magnified eminence on their home courts because of fan enthusiasm and conversely were disproportionately overvalued on the road.
I have seen some worthy power ratings in my day. Most take into account individual HFA that is acknowledging that the extent of home field advantage is not across the board. However with only a few exceptions even the more accurate rankings are oblivious to the equally important piece of information that road disadvantage is also not global. Recognizing one and not the other can actually be counterproductive and be another example of the would-be handicapping kingpin outsmarting oneself.
Any time there are off-court or off-field distractions so often the road is a sanctuary. We see this often with college teams under investigation for the proverbial Apossible sanctions@. From a handicapping standpoint these teams become undervalued on the road but overvalued at home. This is why the Trail Blazers went from a great home court to the Jail Blazers struggling in Oregon.
Exploiting these deviations is a three-step process. First one must find the statistical irregularity. Then one must analyze why the anomalism exists. Finally one must accurately conclude whether the state of affairs that led up to the deviation has been altered. If so, one must disregard the anomaly. If there is no significant fluctuation in the then and now comparison, the sharp player has a winning angle to build towards the preponderance.
To paraphrase a famous movie line, when searching for your wallet’s desire look no further than a team’s own backyard.
Just don’t forget how the other team performs away from their house.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.

One of our successful angles is our “dichotomous ATS and SU game”. We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.

We also speak of our “competitor consensus”. If we do not have a lean towards one side but it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a “competitor consensus”.

Combining the two tools, we have one area which proves to be extremely nice to our client’s bankrolls.

In our endless brainstorming with other professional handicappers and VIP gamblers, we believe the “dichotomous angle” not only overlaps with some of their procedures but in trading intel with our outsourced contacts combines the best of all of our worlds.

A technique used with those who are crackerjacks in this approach is dissecting margin of cover. Notice we said margin of “cover”, not margin of victory.
 The patriarchs on this prescription have slightly different wrinkles on how exactly to apply it. However the baseborn premise is that if a team’s spread win-loss record is at a high percent, its handicapping value is verified or nullified by how close the spread wins and losses were.

As an illustration, let us say a team is 15-5 to the Vegas odds for the year. The mere trendmeister would say that is a team to bet with. Those who research margin of cover, the much brighter gambler in fact, scrutinizes much deeper.

If for example the five ATS setbacks were by a combined 43 points and the 15 wins were by a collective 38 points, the 15-5 trend is fool’s gold. However if the 15 covers were by an average of 10 points per game and the setbacks by 2.5 points per game the trend becomes an angle.

Sure the 15-5 team would be the “better” spread team but I’ve yet to find a place in which you can bet retroactively. In foreseeing the future the fact their “margin of cover” was a negative seven tells us they are not a “strong” spread team and their record is not a symptom of being undervalued, just having had fortuitous covers.

We strengthen, weaken or cancel plays based on whether our information trafficking enhances or contradicts our own findings.
Both the dichotomous and margin angles ensure that trends pass the litmus test of rising to being an “angle” before application.

Having an information trade treaty with other masterminds safeguards there will be systematic checks and balances.

And getting big checks with nice balances from offshore is what it’s all about.

Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks at OffshoreInsiders.com He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.

JoeDuffy.net is proud to announce after one year of personally experiencing perfect payouts and receiving many testimonials we can now recommend My Bookie to the elite list of books we use.

My Bookie has 5% vig Tuesdays, lay just -105. They also have free ½ point Fridays. They’ve been thoroughly checked by JoeDuffy.net and meet our approval.
Take the Bookmaker Off Of This Year’s Christmas Gift List
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Yes ’tis the season for giving, but why do you insist on helping your sports investment bookkeeper pay for that new Beamer every Christmas? Thanks to you he can buy one for his wife and girlfriend too. I hope you have a warm and fuzzy feeling knowing that you have stuffed the stockings of every one of your BM’s loved ones.
I have warned you before, but just like the Surgeon General’s warning, it just seems to go unnoticed. No bookie feels like Mr. Scrooge around the holidays because his phone rings from people who celebrate the season of the sucker bet.
Are you dreaming of a green Christmas just like the one that we Wise Guys know?
\There are many “sucker bets” to which the gambler becomes an all too voluntary participant, but none costs him more money than the ultimate trap-betting on teams in “must win” games especially versus teams that have no chance at making the playoffs.
The reasons that this costs gamblers millions a year are more plentiful than spiked eggnog on Christmas Eve, but let us count ways. The first is the outlandish belief that the team that has no chance at making the postseason has nothing to play for. As if a job is not something to want to save. One must realize the ramifications for an also ran tanking their final games or game. It can be fatal from a high six figure a year minimum career standpoint.
Let us use the San Francisco 49ers for example. Take a look at their roster and tell me how many guys you would lay the vig and bet they definitely have a job sewn up for next year. Furthermore, even for those players that you can safely assume will be on some NFL roster, how many current starters will you wager are insured of starting the following year?
Chances are not many. Most of the players who allegedly have no motivation to perform are merely fighting for their football lives. Did you ever hear the saying that fear is the best motivator? Kurt Warner may be the all-time feel good story about going from stocking shelves to stuffing pictures of dead Presidents in his fat wallet. But players on teams with two or three wins entering the final week or two of the year have to do whatever it takes from being the nameless guy who takes the reverse rout of Warner.
Not to mention, the chance to play spoiler in many cases versus a hated division rival is well, at the risk of using a cliché, that team’s personal playoff game. No team worth its weight in steroids will shrug off the thought of another team celebrating clinching a playoff birth at their expense. Knocking a team out of playoff contention and solidifying one’s job for the following season acts as enough to debunk that twisted thinking, but not so fast there is further reason why betting on teams in must win games is twisted.
There is an unfounded assumption that teams perform better when they have to win. Teams that perform their best under pressure are not in must win games at the end of the year. They are instead trying to pick up their 13th win. If a team is 8-6 for example heading into the final two weeks, are the pro “must win” people telling me the six losses were in non-pressure games?
Plus gamblers must know one of the Golden Rule’s (hey what happened to my cheesy Christmas references?). The oddsmakers are one-step, no two-steps; no make that a country mile ahead of you.
The little known fact is that Roxy and the linesmakers also factor betting pattern when making the line. Believe me they are more than aware of the convoluted traps that most gamblers fall into. If you insist on going with the “must win” team, get ready to lay at least three extra points bare minimum.
In addition to the twisted accepted wisdom there are other factors that lead a gambler down the path to arrears. The public of course loves betting favorites to begin with. But they essentially feel safer betting quality teams and despise investing with pathetic teams almost as if there is a subconscious belief that the oddsmakers have no idea of the talent discrepancies when posting the line. Somehow the physiological pain of four losses out of ten when betting on the Cowboys is worse than the six losses out of ten betting on the Rams.
I do not know how many times I have heard people say to the effect, “I would rather lose betting on the (superior team) than lose by betting on the (horrible team)” not knowing of the actuality that they are espousing a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Not that I should complain. As somebody who sells picks for a living I realize if it were not for people losing money on their own, I would not have many clients. But for those of you who do bet on your own put this article under the Christmas tree this year and your will have a Happy Betting New Year.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com are widely respected as the biggest play in the handicapping abyss.

Well I had an English professor in college who despised clichés with a passion. Hey I just realized that was a cliché. I do not know if Professor Mc Vie was a betting man though, because with apologies to my English mentor the old saying applies to money management in sports betting: it is a marathon not a sprint.

While some scores and odds gamblers may fall prey to the assurances of boiler room scamdicappers maintaining to have inside information and hitting 95%, I have a surprise for you. No gambler, handicapper, wise guy, nobody is slump proof.

For that matter even Joebagofdonuts making his hunch plays for his $10 parlay card will go in streaks. The recipe is to find a handicapper or invest the time yourself to insure that the winning steaks outnumber and outlast the losing streaks.

Frankly the formula to winning in sports is well-informed handicapping and money management. Even if somebody can win consistently, if one’s betting amount is haphazard one can lose a lot of money.

Bookmakers drive around in new Porsche’s not just because most of their clients grapple to hit 45% of their plays, but also because a preponderance of gamblers use the “panic” or “greed” methods when deciding how much to wager.

Any sports betting links player who increases his bets when he is down to try to win it back in one bet is destined to live in a box by the river. That is why Monday Night Football is the greatest thing to ever happen to a bookie. The bookie’s second best friend is the Sunday night game. Both are considered “bail out games” by the uneducated risk taker.

But even worse is the player for stakes who presses his luck during a hot streak and increases his bets. I have seen so many suckers go 15-5 for example and still squander capital.

The quandary is a $50 bettor for example when he is hot has the attitude, “Could you imagine how much I would have made if I bet $200 a game?” Even worse is the guy who goes 5-0 and realizes how much he could have made if he put money on a parlay. Yes 20/20 handicapping is great but I do not know a sportsbook that takes those types of antes.

Any bookmaker will tell you with 90% of gamblers, the more they win one week, the more the bookie looks forward to the gamester’s phone call the next week. Too many gamblers always find a way to give the money back and then some.

Even I have had nightmare days, but because of money management the Wise Guys and I have no idea what a losing month or season is.

The recipe is to stake the same amount based purely on how much one likes a game, not how much one is up or down in the short run. However there are actually two adaptations of acceptable money management.

One is the Godsey Theory, which is the most straightforward and the other is the Kelly System, which the units are equal but always relative to the bankroll.

The Godsey Theory is a fundamental as it gets. The way to divvy the units can be different as long as it is constant, but the key is not change the rating system or units per play.

Personally I only bet plays in two different units. Wise Guy plays are my top play and majors are .75 units of a Wise Guy play.

So as it applies to a $100 player, he would bet $100 on my Wise Guy plays and of course, $75 on my majors. Much like putting the same amount every month into the stock market, this method must be bet religiously.

However the Kelly System is similar but is based on a set percentage of one’s bankroll, not a set amount. Generally the maximum bet is 1/20 of the total bankroll.

Using the same one unit and .75 unit rating procedure, if one’s bankroll starts out with a $2,000 bankroll, Wise Guy plays would be $100 (5% of 2,000) and a major would be $75 (3.75% of (2,000).

Let’s say the gambler goes on a huge losing streak and his bankroll drops to $1,325. Then a Wise Guy play is still 5% of his bankroll, but is it $66.25, while a major is still 3.75% at $49.69.

When his bankroll is increased to $3,330 for example a Wise Guy play increases to $166.50, while a major would be $124.88.

Accurate handicapping and great information is the heart and soul of sports gambling. But without a responsible and thus concordant money management modus operandi it will all go for naught.

With both the Kelly Theory and the Godsey theory, your amount or percentage as the case may be never varies according to your streaks. I have never heard of a progressive betting system that works long-term. I know many in sports are based off of questionable betting procedure in blackjack or other casino games. The funny thing is the blackjack players who I know who swear by these methods always seem to forget when they lose and remember when it wins.

Now that is a degenerate gambler indeed. Somebody has to pay for those fancy chandeliers and ostentatious creature comforts at those multi-billion dollar casinos. Let us just make sure it is not you or me!

If one considers any game a “bailout” game, that is the first sign of trouble. Gamblers love to add up the wins and losses before deciding how much to bet on the Sunday night NFL game and Monday Night game. If a gambler had a horrific Saturday and Sunday, he starts betting parlays or coming up with schemes on how to win it all back with the two remaining prime time games—big mistake. Whether you are up 10 units or down said amount, the amount that you bet if at all on the Sunday night game should be based purely on how much you like that game. The Monday Night Football game is no different.

I cringe or at least wish that I was on the other side of the window when I hear a gambler who is down a few sheckles figuring merely how to get his debt below his “square up” amount with his man. Do not get me wrong, the goal of course is to not pay your man, but show me a guy who says he collects from the BM 52 weeks a year and please give me a chance to sell you stock in the Brooklyn Bridge.

Just like the stock market gambling has its ebbs and flows and to accept that one will not turn a profit 52 weeks a year is the first step on avoiding the endless pitfalls that make the bookmakers filthy rich.

The point is that with proper handicapping and money management you will collect from the man much more than he pays you, but there are some weeks that if you are down late in the week that you have to accept that it is going to be one of those periods where he collects from you.

Conversely the gambler often does the opposite. If he enters the late Sunday card significantly up, he may often get conservative just to insure a profit for the week or perhaps worse press his luck and increase his bets. Both are stupid. Anyone who lives and dies off of a one game or one day is destined to subsidize his “man’s” lifestyle.

“When you believe in things that you don’t understand, you suffer. Superstition ain’t the way, yeh, yeh,” Stevie Wonder. Those are words to sing and gamble by. I realize that there are times that it seems like everything is going right for you and there are times when no matter how hard you handicap the games, you just feel like in the final minutes or innings of a game if it’s close, you will lose.

I know the feeling. I have gone in some slumps and I will have three games on the dish going down to the wire. I just know I am watching heartbreak in progress. It boggles the mind how when things are not going your way every backdoor cover goes against you. But never, ever let such superstition affect your betting. The same is true when you are in a run where every late break goes your way. Pressing one’s luck is every bit as dangerous as panicking.

Never vary your bets based on the feeling that you are snake bitten or in a hot streak. As someone who sells picks for a living I am more than aware how gamblers love betting someone’s hot streaks. Finding a quality handicapper is much more important and profitable than worrying about who is hot and who has the big plays.

It is harmless if superstition affects your rooting habits, such as wearing your lucky shirt on an NFL Sunday. Buy never cross the line of it entering either your handicapping or the amount that you bet.

Joe Duffy generally considered as the greatest scorephone handicapper ever joined Internet guru Mike Godsey to form the most powerful handicapping alliance ever. Known as the handicapping’s “Dream Team” their plays are as little as less than $6.00 per day at OffshoreInsiders.com

Get 107 juice at Canbet if you tell them JoeDuffy.net sent you!


See the Changes Made to Make Some Change
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
With apologies to the androgynous David Bowie, if you don’t want to be a richer man than don’t face the strain. But if you do want to profit when handicapping basketball, your “gonna” have to be a changed man.
With the top high school players more likely to enter the NBA draft and if not stay in college for a cup of coffee, the sharp player has to recognize the complexities that it brings to handicapping.
There are many reasons why Young Turk handicappers have surpassed some old school prognosticators. The obvious reason is so many of the moth-eaten soothsayers use out-of-date handicapping techniques ignoring the Internet and various computer programs. However less obvious but even more importantly is also not acknowledging that once tried and true theories have become obsolete.
Among the examples:
Senior leadership: the great seniors of the past are now third and fourth year NBA players. Maryland was the exception in 2002 not because of experience but it just so happened that Maryland was a throwback—two superstar seniors. Lonny Baxter and Juan Dixon did not lead Maryland to the Promised Land because they were seniors, but because they were two NBA prospects that actually stayed around for four years. Plenty of teams could compete with them as far as veterans on the roster, but none were in the same league talent wise.
Unlike the recent past, never handicap so-called leadership ahead of talent. Perhaps an academic school like Duke or Stanford will combine both, but if a teams four-year players are not going to be found on a lot All-Conference or All-American teams, don’t be counting on their birth certificates to compensate for lack of height, muscle and speed.
Talent will overcome lack of experience, but you can keep your bookmaker in business waiting for the reverse to happen.
If the opposite were the case, mid-major teams would wear the glass slipper every year, as they are the schools that have more four-year players than the big boys.
I will put my back-to-back great recruiting classes of sophs and frosh ahead of your senior laden team whose top player is a mid level Australian league back-up prospect.
Preseason publications: I use to quietly giggle at those who said preseason publications were worthless once the season tips off. Related to what is stated above, the supermarket year books used to be very valuable as the squads with the most returning starters always got out of the gate the quickest, while teams with the most new quality talent would peak late. However once March came it was time to go back to betting on the vets.
Street & Smith’s and the many worthy imitations used to be ideal reference books for such. Of course one would have to make adjustments for injuries, but I successfully used my endless pile of storehouse arsenal throughout the year.
Up until the mid-90s I would compile the consensus predictions of all the publications. I would weigh each conference’s official coaches’ poll 50/50 with the hacks’ cumulative opinion as I found these to be good power ratings.
When a team with consensus preseason conference rating of say 5.6 (average predicted finish) was a big favorite to a team with a rating of 2.4 and the teams were healthy, but the “5.6” team was playing much better, the comparative consensus ratings were a gold mine in sorting out overachieving and underachieving teams.
More times than not, the hypothetical situation said look for both teams to return to their talent level and bet the “2.4” team.
With such turnover on the rosters, teams are much streakier and so much harder to predict than 10 and 20 years ago. Looking at a team’s recent three and five game performance is more valuable than ever. College hoop squads don’t “rise and fall to their level” like they used to.
Bigger homecourt advantage. Don’t take me out of context. I never said there is no difference between a freshman and sophomore-laden team and one with a bunch of third and fourth-year starters. Lack of maturity shows up on the road a lot more than at home. Home court advantage, especially in the first 15-20 games is as big as it ever was. Home dogs and small favorites, especially when playing well, deserve a longer look-see more than ever before.
In 1985, those theories that worked in 1980 and even 1970 often held up. No only has the game itself but thanks to technology the way sharp players handicap has also been greatly altered. Hence so had the way the lines are made and moved.
Too many dinosaur diviners are estimating today’s outcomes with yesterday’s attitude. So handicappers, time better change you, because you can’t trace time.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio.

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Rotisserie Experts Need Not Be Chicken When It Comes to Betting Baseball
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
Within the last year, I wrote an article about how sports investing and fantasy sports know-how can have common characteristics, but I declared how it is ten carats on the baseball diamond. There is no doubt that evaluations specifically on the alleged
America’s pastime warrant an essay in and of itself.
If one can distinguish there are both differences and similarities between winning with your MVP fantasy team and winning at MVP sportsbook, a great roto GM can be one heck of a prognosticator as well.
Our favorite rotisserie site Rotowire.com has injuries and analysis of such that is of great worth to the gambler as well. They give diagnosis of players’ slumps, injuries, the injury replacements et al in their “recommendation” section. It has a lot of nuggets that make food for thought for my daily handicapping.
They are also my favorite source for the scoop on starting pitchers coming up from the minor leagues. Ah, starting pitchers coming up to the Show. There is the biggest comparison and contrast from gambling to roto managing.
In fantasy sports you are projecting his long-term worth, but in gambling the “long term” is his next nine innings or less. This is not to say that one not need to envisage what he will do longer term. In fact it is quite contrary.
So often top prospects come up from the minors and have a few good outings before running into some bumps in the road. The general school of thought is that once they get around the league the scouting gets better.
This is perhaps somewhat true, but more times than not teams bring up players when they are in a nice groove. It is rare that a blue chip prospect is brought up to the bright lights when they were struggling on the farm.
However necessity can be the mother of rushing guys to the majors. Therefore the handicapper more than the fantasy guru is not worried how the touted fireballer will be down the road, but in his next outing.
Was it injuries or just plain bad pitching that forced the parent club to bring him up or was it clearly the opportune time? A pitcher’s last three or so starts in the minors is much more important to the ‘capper than the roto geek.
Few things are more of a crapshoot (not even a crapshoot) than pitching prospects. Even those who do pan out rarely do right away. You can throw out your Todd Van Poppel, Rick Ankeil, Lance Dickson and Willie Banks rookie cards. Do not even get me started on Brien Taylor.
Often the square handicapper outsmarts himself thinking he is so far ahead of the curve knowing the in vogue pitching prospects. Because of the previously stated tendency to bring the star up when he’s in the proper “zone” going with the Young Turk can often pay off in the short run.
But with each win comes higher expectations and the true test comes when adversity strikes. That’s when we exploit the Johnny-come-lately not being able to live up to his press clippings.
Even those who do pan out are often late bloomers.
What does this mean from a handicapping standpoint? Knowing the square player outfoxes himself, the hotshot who has proven nothing more times than not proves to be overvalued. However often they get out of the gate quickly before fading.
That is why it is so important to retrace the recent starts preceding his call-up. Of course the last 3-5 starts at AAA or as can be the case AA should not have the same credence as we weigh MLB starts, but they certainly must be weighed accordingly.
Like we said, the fantasy sites often have the best relevant scouting report. But remember Rotowire and other sites are more concerned whether or not the pitcher in question becomes the latest flavor of the month. We just want to know if he has the hot hand and for how long.
Once the chic media’s latest phenom hits his first bump in the road, we fade him hard. Bucking the flavor of the month club has made us a lot of money of the years, but the fantasy information has greatly aided us in not jumping the gun too soon.
As far as other sources in the fantasy sports realm, ESPN’s Fantasy Power Picks are excellent, though their actual ratings very flawed. For example they only compare bottom line ERA over a period when computing their power ratings and give no consideration to innings pitched. A hurler whose ERA in five innings of the previous month is 1.50 is given more weight than one whose ERA is 2.09 in 32 innings.
We as handicappers break down the numbers, but ESPN’s Power Picks at least displays and parses them very well.
Don’t make too much fun of the rotogeek in your office who is living and dying off of the boxscores. If he is perennially at the top of his league standings, he may be able to help make your investing fantasies come true. You can bet on it.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His daily news and notes are at www.joeduffy.net
His Wise Guy Plays available exclusively at www.godspicks.com where daily sports handicapping information is available to crush the sportsbooks. Godspicks.com has daily sports betting free winners, news, notes and trends. Media inquiries and all questions: godspicks@bellsouth.net

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Read Between the Lines to Beat the Line, That’s a Quote
Joe Duffy (www.godspicks.com)
No matter how inferior his foe is, Lou Holtz’s subsequent opponent is always the paramount team in recent football history. His own team is always overrated and fortunate not to be winless. So says he anyway. A first-class handicapper can differentiate between “coachspeak” and legitimate handicapping information.
The most indispensable bit of information that I look for is when coaches evaluate how his team executed in practice that week. Coaches have demonstrated very trustworthy and impartial for such tidings that have proven priceless in foretelling the ATS outcome of games.
Anytime a coach has expressed either glee or disenchantment in how his team has functioned on the practice field the week preceding a game, this handicapper sees a gargantuan red flag.
Coaches are legendary about blowing smoke, but I have found when it comes to evaluating his team’s frame of mind as game day approaches, such pertinent specific quotes to be invaluable bits of handicapping information.
Player quotes are also magnificent gauges of a team’s mindset. This is especially the case in college sports when a team faces a potential letdown or revenge situation. Too often uneducated gamblers choose to conjecture when a team will overlook an opponent or when for example a large favorite will be motivated or unmotivated to run up a score.
Thank goodness the media needs some fodder and helps us by spotting such potential situations. While the scribes can often write worthless claptrap, when they center on motivational mindsets, I find infinitely meaningful articles covering such angles of consequence to handicappers.
Steve Spurrier is of course the antithesis of Holtz. Early indications are that the Visor has not toned down his trash talking for the NFL. However back in December of 2001, Spurrier was conspicuously low-keyed before his traditional rivalry against a Tennessee team that he had beaten seven consecutive times and in many cases quite soundly.
Sirens went off as far as I was concerned. The biggest trash talking coach in contemporary times gone by was quite the diplomat against a team and coach who he never failed to dis’ until that time. His unspoken works said more than any that he could have uttered. Thanks to such, we unloaded on one of our largest plays ever and the Vols not only snapped the jinx, they did it in Gainesville, winning outright 34-32.
So often it is the subtleties that separate the winners from the losers in sports handicapping. You can quote me on that.
Joe Duffy is General Manager of Freescoreboard.com, the premier hub of world class handicappers. Duffy’s handicapping prowess is now part of the Dream Team with Mike Godsey at www.godspicks.com, widely considered to be the most powerful handicapping alliance ever.

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God’s Tid-Bets, Vol. 16
Joe Duffy (www.joeduffy.net)
This is the latest in a series, a Godgepodge of sports gambling discussion.
Toot Our Own Horn
We have happily given credit where it is due to competitors as we openly admit we utilize the databases of Jim Feist, Covers and Foxsheets in our daily handicapping. We also enjoy Scorephone.com to which we are affiliated because they carry some of the best syndicated content from the Sports Network and Sports Databases.
But I honestly believe our new blog at www.joeduffy.net fills a major void. We share our clipboard of daily news and notes as applicable to the gambler. We noticed a lot of fantasy sports sites led by Rotowire.com have valuable daily updated information for the rotisserie/fantasy sports player and wondered why there isn’t one for gamblers.
Now there is and it includes advanced news and notes available before the opening line comes out. Objectively I think you will like the 100 percent free information at www.joeduffy.net
Yes We Are “Series-ous”
I often hear handicappers say they disregard series stats beyond the current season. On the surface their argument would pass any of those truth tables that we were taught in Philosophy class in testing logical conjunction. Players and coaches often change, so the make-up of one or both teams can be significantly and even completely different than when a cycle of dominance started.
This truth is amplified in college sports where even redshirt athletes’ careers are spread out over a maximum of five years. In top shelf basketball conferences often the stars have a one or two year cup of java before turning pro. Take for example the 2005 NCAA basketball national champion North Carolina, which lost all five starters.
One could present a lucent argument that anything North Carolina did even the previous year was irrelevant in forecasting the near future. Certainly any college team that has nine-year dominance over another even if not justified in talent match-ups would seem immaterial. After all, some players on each team were nine years old at the commencement of the streak.
But such a simplistic view brushes off the mental aspect of the game. In sports there is no shortage of strange superstitions, so completely disregarding that one team can have a certain mystique even if it’s not warranted by players currently wearing the uniforms, can be costly.
Oh trendmeisters who blindly bet series stats, oblivious to the fact the status are no longer in quo are at the other and admittedly more naïve extreme. But don’t outthink yourself. Series stats should be handled with great caution and kept into their proper perspective. But the confidence level in each team or lack thereof that history can bring should not abandoned.
Those who ignore history in handicapping are doomed to not defeat it.
Not Just History, But Chemistry Too
It happens often in the NBA, but applies in every sport. Often a star player will miss a significant number of games because of injury, but a team will play well without him. In virtually all cases, getting the star player back of course is a positive in the long term. However we handicap that if a team prospered without him, more times than not they do take the proverbial step back before moving forward.
Of course when a stud returns to the line-up the pointspread will move in that team’s direction causing further line value. The window of opportunity is rarely longer than two games. However never fail to think likely that a key player returning to the line-up for a team streaking in the positive direction does more times than not rattle a harmonious situation. Anticipating this and the temporary nature of it will turn several frowns upside down in each sport.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks.com. He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show. His daily news and notes are at www.joeduffy.net