One of our successful angles is our “dichotomous ATS and SU game”. We discount 98 percent of trends, but this has proven to be the exception to the rule. Basically if a team has a great SU record but horrid ATS record or visa versa, you ride for that to continue as it is the sign of which teams are most under or overvalued.
We also speak of our “competitor consensus”. If we do not have a lean towards one side but it does not rise to the level of premium play, but get a strong play or consensus from the few other handicappers we respect, we pass it as a “competitor consensus”.
Combining the two tools, we have one area which proves to be extremely nice to our client’s bankrolls.
In our endless brainstorming with other professional handicappers and VIP gamblers, we believe the “dichotomous angle” not only overlaps with some of their procedures but in trading intel with our outsourced contacts combines the best of all of our worlds.
A technique used with those who are crackerjacks in this approach is dissecting margin of cover. Notice we said margin of “cover”, not margin of victory. The patriarchs on this prescription have slightly different wrinkles on how exactly to apply it. However the baseborn premise is that if a team’s spread win-loss record is at a high percent, its handicapping value is verified or nullified by how close the spread wins and losses were.
As an illustration, let us say a team is 15-5 to the Vegas odds for the year. The mere trendmeister would say that is a team to bet with. Those who research margin of cover, the much brighter gambler in fact, scrutinizes much deeper.
If for example the five ATS setbacks were by a combined 43 points and the 15 wins were by a collective 38 points, the 15-5 trend is fool’s gold. However if the 15 covers were by an average of 10 points per game and the setbacks by 2.5 points per game the trend becomes an angle.
Sure the 15-5 team would be the “better” spread team but I’ve yet to find a place in which you can bet retroactively. In foreseeing the future the fact their “margin of cover” was a negative seven tells us they are not a “strong” spread team and their record is not a symptom of being undervalued, just having had fortuitous covers.
We strengthen, weaken or cancel plays based on whether our information trafficking enhances or contradicts our own findings. Both the dichotomous and margin angles ensure that trends pass the litmus test of rising to being an “angle” before application.
Having an information trade treaty with other masterminds safeguards there will be systematic checks and balances.
And getting big checks with nice balances from offshore is what it’s all about.
Duffy’s plays are part of the Dream Team at Godspicks at OffshoreInsiders.com He is perhaps the most published and respected author on sports gambling theory and has been featured as a regular guest as the handicapping expert on the Rick Ballou Show on Sporting News Radio, Gamblers Zoo national radio show, the Meat and Potatoes gambling show, Gridiron Gamblers, Pro Fantasy Sports Internet radio and Grogan’s Fantasy Football show.