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Chargers-Bills

• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Chargers)
  • 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
• Home underdogs off a loss of 40 or more are 10-3 against the spread
• Philip Rivers predictably unpredictable
• Bills abysmal
• Chargers pass rusher Joey Bosa is out
• Yes home underdogs of 7 or more 53.6 percent but only 33-40 when hosting a team off a loss of seven or more
• Fading teams that average 3 or less points per game, unless they are home favorites is 18-8 (San Diego)
• Josh Allen makes first career start after going 6-of-15 for 74 yards passing and 26 yards rushing
• Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 (Bills)
• Home underdogs of 6.5 or more off loss of 24 or more 68-39 for 63.6 (Bills)
  • But 4-8 since 2013

Eagles-Buccaneers

• Tampa has terrible last season and undervalued, while Eagles had everything to right
• Tampa WR DeSean Jackson upgraded to probable
  • 5 catches in week 1, 106 previous two years
• Both teams with backup, but very experienced QBs
  • Eagles Nick Foles
  • Bills Ryan Fitzpatrick
• Road favorites that had at least 200 fewer total yards than their opponent did previous week are 20-9
  • Listen to what the oddsmakers are telling you
• Eagles RB Darren Sproles is out
  • 3,376 career yards rushing on 4.9 yards per carry
• Eagles WR Alshon Jeffery who has had five straight seasons of 52 or more catches is out

Browns-Saints

• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Saints)
• Fade teams that have no more than one win last 22 SU is 27-10 (Saints)
• Teams off loss as large favorite are 95-66 (Saints)
• Large home favorites with statistically worse defense is 79-57 (Saints)
• Browns tie, mentally draining, but Saints loss motivating
  • Teams off a tie 6-14 (go with Saints)
• Saints still without Mark Ingram
  • 1124 yards rushing last year, averages 4.5 yards per carry in 5362 lifetime yards
• NO plays Atlanta next week
• Browns dangerous WR Josh Gordon will be cut
• Browns without one of their best pass rushers in Emmanuel Ogbah
• New Orleans defense is more healthy this week
• Saints top scoring home offense since 2015
• When Saints home game total has gone up by up to two points, the OVER is 23-10
• After being most improved defense last year, Saints torched for 529 yard and 48 points to backup Ryan Fitzpatric last week

Pick: NEW ORLEANS -9

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Cardinals-Rams

• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Cardinals)
  • 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
• Cards starting OT Andrew Smith is out

Lions-49ers

• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Lions)
  • 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
• Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Lions)
• Lions starting T T.J. Lang is out
• Jimmy Garoppolo now facing burden of high expectations
  • Many examples of QBs being great fade once they go from hunter to hunted
• Stafford 7-14-1 underdogs of six or more
• Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 (Lions)

Giants-Cowboys

• Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Giants)

Colts-Redskins

• Teams off loss as a favorite rebound in week 2 at 73-56-4 rate (Colts)
  • 62.1 percent when not a home favorite this game
• Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Colts)
• Solid momentum angle that has to do with undefeated team versus a winless team under specific circumstances that apply today is 70-49-2 (Redskins)
• Skins undervalued as not sure Cousins to Smith is drop-off, Colts overvalued
• Colts Anthony Castonzo is out after being considered probable early in the week
  • OL ravaged by injury and they were counting on his return
• Home teams in week 2 that covered by seven or more previous week 39-29-4 (Washington)
• Andrew Luck a stunning 22-6 off SU loss, covering by 6.9 points per game
  • 10-1 as underdog by 13.4 points per game

Panthers-Falcons

• Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Panthers)
• Falcons RB Devonta Freeman is doubtful
  • Averages 4.3 yards per carry in his career and twice rushed for over 1,000 yards
• Panthers WR Curtis Samuel, fellow WR Damiere Byrd and G Trai Turner all are out
  • Samuel 15 receptions in 9 games, 4 starts last year
  • Byrd had 10 catches last year
• Panthers OL Matt Kalil, Daryl Williams and superstar TE Greg Olsen remain out
• But Falcons defense with LBs Deion Jones and Keanu Neal, both devastating injuries
• Playoff teams from previous season are 42-28 against the spread in week 2 home openers
• Cam Newton 29-19 against the spread as underdog including 8-6 last 14 SU for +9 units

Texans-Titans

• Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Titans)
• Titans starting QB Marcus Mariota limited in practice
  • Look for both Mariota and journeyman Blain Gabbert to get playing time
• Texans star WR DeAndre Hopkins is questionable and will be limited if he does play
  • Among 4 Texans WR dealing with injuries
• Going against teams that open the season with back-to-back road games is 28-16 including 15-4 in the second of those two road games (Tennessee)
• Including walking wounded, one could argue Tennessee most injured offense in NFL

Patriots-Jaguars

• Jacksonville RB Leonard Fournette is game-time decision
  • 9 carries, 45 yards off 1,040 yards last year at 3.9 yards per carry
• New England RB by committee but banged up
• Brady 44-19-5 against the spread to AFC foes with a winning percentage above .500

Vikings-Packers

• Packers QB Aaron Rogers is practiced Saturday for the first time and is listed as probable
  • Backups DeShone Kizer and Tim Boyle
  • Will likely have Davante Adams

Miami-Jets

• Dolphins WR DeVante Park is probable
  • 56 and 7 catches the last two years
• Go against favorites of 2 or more if it’s their first game as favorite is 209-168-15 (Dolphins)
• Teams off impressive prime-time win 123-72-8 (Jets)
• Jets LB Josh Martin is out
  • 14 games, 9 starts last year with 48 combined tackles
• Jets DB Marcus May out
  • 16 starts last year with 79 combined tackles
• LG Josh Sitton, who played every offensive snap in game 1 it out for the year
  • 4 time Pro Bowler
  • Ted Larson, who has 73 starts in 111 games, takes over
• Jets 2-6 against the spread under Todd Bowles off win as an underdog previous week, failing by 9.2 points per game

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Chiefs-Steelers

• Ben Roethlisberger has missed practice this week with bruised right elbow, but probable
  • 99.1 QBR at home, compared to 88.7 road
• Le’Veon Bell still out
• Teams off a tie 6-14 (fade Pittsburgh)
• Fading home favorites off a tie is 75-54 (KC)
• Chiefs star S Eric Berry is doubtful, opening up passing game for Pittsburgh
• Ben Roethlisberger is most profitable QB to the UNDER, when fading total line move, going under 49-37
  • Gone from 49.5 to 54
• Antonio Brown last four games to Chiefs averaging 6 receptions for 113 yards
• Going against teams that scored 28 or more in week 1 is 52-28 (fade KC, go with Pittsburgh)
  • 7-17 if they also allowed 28 or more

Raiders-Broncos

• Oakland down both starting defensive tackles
• Raiders short week and going to high altitude
• Underdogs of six or more off loss of 20 or more are 258-213-7 for 54.8 percent (Oakland)

Giants-Cowboys

• Two winless teams, go with underdog is 88-66-5 (Giants)
  • 58.8 percent road
• Cowboys nobody to catch ball, Zeke Ellliot looking like physical style already caught up to him
  • Just 69 yards last week, though only carried 15 times
• Six year starting LB Olivier Vernon is out for Giants
• Dallas with 61 percent against the spread home winning percentage under Jason Garrett

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Biggest line moves:

Green Bay opened -2.5 to Minnesota, now +2.5

Jets P to Miami, now -3

New Orleans -7 to -9.5

Percentage of bets: Houston, LA Chargers, Minnesota, Philadelphia

Percentage of money: Minnesota, Philadelphia, San Francisco, LA Chargers, New Orleans, Houston