All posts by Joe Duffy

Even More NFL Free Winning Picks For Weekend

Part 2 of NFL week 15 betting picks preview. Did you somehow miss part 1? No worries, here it is

Texans at Titans

  • Ryan Tannehill led Tits to four straight wins and are 6-1 with him
    • Completed 149 on 203 attempts for 1993 yards, 15 touchdowns, 5 interceptions, and a QBR of 118.5
  • Teams lost by 14 or more as an eight-point or more favorite versus an opponent on a four-game are more winning streak are 28-16-1 (Texans)

Free pick: TENNESSEE -3

Colts at Saints

  • High quality MNF home favorites 57-26-5
  • Road team off road loss 334-241-11
  • Saints tough bounceback following 48-46 loss to San Francisco 
  • Team that had 88 or more total points scored last game goes over 21-11 

OVER 47

Jags at Raiders

  • Road teams off three straight or more blowout losses do tank late in season 39-9-1 (Raiders)
  • Big underdogs off consecutive rout losses are 120-75-6
  • Raiders RB Josh Jacobs limited practice Wednesday is questionable
    • 218 carries, 1061 yards 7 TDs, 146 receiving yards 

Free pick: Oakland -6.5

Seahawks at Panthers

  • Consecutive road games, team off a loss 334-241-11 (Seattle)
  • Big turnover table, go with worse turnover team is 538-407-30 (Carolina)
  • Anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 141-104-11 (Carolina)
    • Seattle 6-1 SU road, 4-2 SU home
  • West coast teams playing at 1 PM is 180-141-6
    • 119-82-4 in week 7 or later 

The pick: Seattle -6

Bet at MyBookie live lines, where a 50 percent sports sign-up bonus is available now. 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Joe Duffy is 34-17 NFL, 63-36 with all footballArmy-Navy Wise GuySix NFL Wise Guys, five NFL Majors at OffshoreInsiders.com    

Northern Iowa vs. James Madison Betting Pick

Added rotation Friday winner from Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com. These use the same metrics as our regular rotation winners. 

CFB

Wise Guy

Northern Iowa-James Madison UNDER 41.5 at Bet Now   

When a math total has a large enough difference to the posted total, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them. Because we store each over and under differently in each sport, the over and under angles will have different records, but in reality one could combine them for an overall record.  The under version goes under at a rate of 833-507-35. Teams off dominant rushing effort goes under 462-285-23. When both apply, it goes under 209-100-8. 

NFL Week 15 Early Betting Intel, 4 Free Picks

Four NFL free picks from superstar handicapper Joe Duffy. I am 34-17 NFL and 63-36 in football! Follow my premium picks on OffshoreInsiders.com   

Jets at Ravens (-14.5, 45)

  • Going with very bad underdog based on sweat barometer is 296-207-8 (Jets)
  • At least a 118-point difference for season on ats margin, go with worse team is 139-95-9 as Ravens league best 11-2 by +10.2 points per game (Jets)
  • Better team in short week unless they had substantially more snaps is 82-34 (Ravens)
  • Go with teams with at 90 fewer snaps on the season is 208-159-10 (Jets)
  • Jets final three games Ravens, Steelers, Bills 

The pick: Jets +14.5

Pats (-10, 40.5) at Bengals

  • Anti-splits angle about fading road teams who have been better on road than home team has been at home is 141-104-11 (Cincinnati)
  • Much worse run defense late in season is 59-31-3 (Cincinnati)
  • Home underdogs of 9.5 in week 15 or later are 32-19 (Cincinnati)
  • Bengals franchise WR A.J. Green considered day-to-day

The picks: Cincinnati +10

Rams at Cowboys (-3, 47)

  • Surprise stat: Dallas +64 point margin on year but under .500…
  • Going against teams with better points per game margin than record is 78-52-3 (Rams)
  • Favorites with +15 or more edge for season in points margin, yet two fewer wins are 22-15-1 (Dallas)

The pick: Rams +3

Vikings (-3, 45) at Chargers 

  • Worse turnover team is 538-407-30 (Chargers)
  • Vikings WR Adam Thielen is probable after missing six of last seven games
    • Minnesota averaging 24.5 points per game without him
  • Fading home underdogs off win of 21 or more is 16-6 since 2012 (Vikings)

The pick: LA Chargers +3 

Some of our favorite online books. All are vetted and approved. 

5 Dimes very high limits, fantastic for added rotation games that many books either do not have or post very late.

MYBookie easy deposits and withdraws. As professionally run as any sportsbook I’ve ever dealt with. 

Bovada longest track record of any A-plus online sportsbook. 

GTBets my clients love their online casino in addition to sportsbook. 

Heisman Trophy Odds: Will Burrow Get All-Time Percentage, Who Finishes Second?

In the world of gambling, there is no such thing as a lock, but Joe Burrow is as close as it comes. 

Burrow has been tagged with -30000, or 1/300, odds to win the Heisman Trophy by SportsBetting. This means a wager of 300 would return a single dollar.

The maximum you can bet on Burrow on the site is 75,000, which would net 250. 

Heisman odds

Joe Burrow -30000

Jalen Hurts +2500

Chase Young +3300

Justin Fields +3300

In Heisman history, O.J. Simpson garnered the most first-place votes (855) in 1968 while Troy Smith received the second-most (801) in 2006. Behind a near-flawless season, the oddsmakers believe Burrow may take over second place. 

Total first-place votes for Joe Burrow

Over 805

Under 805

 .

Will Joe Burrow break O.J. Simpson’s record?

Yes +500

No -1000

Link to current Heisman odds:

Fans can also bet on who will finish second in the Heisman voting. The odds suggest somewhat of a tossup between Jalen Hurts and Chase Young.

Player to receive the second-most Heisman votes

Jalen Hurts -110

Chase Young +110

Justin Fields +500

What a bowl season it is going to at OffshoreInsiders.com. Joe Duffy has already recorded some of the best bowl seasons ever. With three and four-letter networks hiring entry-level writers to spew square info with gullible sheep, the sharp-square chasm is larger than ever. This is great for us gambling masters. 

Army-Navy Free Picks, Betting Preview

It’s the annual Army-Navy contest and two of the greatest experts in betting preview the contest. Jeff Nadu and Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy, CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com have you covered—literally. Army is -10.5 with a total of 41, after opening -10.5 sans a total. Early money at sportsbooks such as 5 Dimes has underdog Army with 59 percent of bets and 51 percent of money. It is too early for meaningful totals stats as most books have it off-the-board with reports of possible bad weather. Here is the preview. 

Joe Duffy says early indicators are it is going to not only be another great bowl season, it is all but certain to be even better than usual. But that’s no surprise considering his advanced analytics system just keeps getting better. His picks are at OffshoreInsiders.com  

Free College Basketball Pick ATS From Big 19

Free winning pick from Joe Duffy in college basketball. 

MINNESOTA +6 Iowa at Bovada  

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1788-1450-80. 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. I am 63-36 in football and 34-17 NFL, 83-50 in all sports. Simply put, I am the best handicapper in the world and it’s not close, nor has it been for many years. Three NBA winners led by Wise Guy. What are you buying with all the money we’ve won you? Keep winning at OffshoreInsiders.com     

CFP Odds, Betting Trends, Winning Pick Info

The semifinal game between LSU and Oklahoma features the second-highest spread and over/under in College Football Playoff history. 

LSU is currently a 12.5-point favorite against the Sooners, and the game’s total is 75 points.

According to closing odds from SportsBetting.ag, there has only been one higher spread and one higher total in CFP history. The complete list is below. 

The other CFP semifinal, featuring Ohio State and Clemson, shows the Tigers as 2-point favorites over the Buckeyes with an over/under of 63.5. 

The combined current total of both games is the highest for any two CFP semis in the same year.

Here are the championship odds:

LSU +125

Clemson +225

Ohio State +250

Oklahoma +1000

Current bowl odds from SportsBetting

(semifinal games are in bold/italics)

List of CFP Spreads (sorted by biggest spread)

2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama (-14.5) vs. Oklahoma

2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU (-12.5) vs. Oklahoma

2016/17 Peach Bowl: Alabama (-12.5) vs. Washington

2018/19 Cotton Bowl: Clemson (-10.5) vs. Notre Dame

2015/16 Cotton Bowl: Alabama (-10) vs. Michigan State

2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-7.5) vs. Ohio State

2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon (-7.5) vs. Florida State

2016/17 CFP NCG: Alabama (-6.5) vs. Clemson

2015/16 CFP NCG: Alabama (-6) vs. Clemson

2014/15 CFP NCG: Oregon (-6) vs. Ohio State

2018/19 CFP NCG: Alabama (-5) vs. Clemson

2017/18 CFP NCG: Alabama (-3.5) vs. Georgia

2017/18 Sugar Bowl: Alabama (-3.5) vs. Clemson  

2015/16 Orange Bowl: Oklahoma (-3.5) vs. Clemson

2017/18 Rose Bowl: Georgia (-2.5) vs. Oklahoma

2019/20 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson (-2) vs. Ohio State

2016/17 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State (-1) vs. Clemson

– Favorites are 7-3 straight-up and 6-4 ATS in semifinal history

– Favorites are 8-7 straight-up and 6-9 ATS in CFP history

List of CFP Totals (sorted by highest totals)

2018/19 Orange Bowl: Alabama vs. Oregon (80.5)

2019/20 Peach Bowl: LSU vs. Oklahoma (75)

2014/15 Rose Bowl: Oregon vs. Florida State (74)

2014/15 CFP NCG: Oregon vs. Ohio State (72.5)

2019/20 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson vs. Ohio State (63.5)

2017/18 Rose Bowl: Oklahoma vs. Georgia (62.5)

2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson vs. Oklahoma (61.5)

2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Ohio State (58)

2018/19 Cotton Bowl: Clemson vs. Notre Dame (58)

2018/19 CFP NCG: Clemson vs. Alabama (57.5)

2016/17 Fiesta Bowl: Ohio State vs. Clemson (56)

2016/17 CFP NCG: Alabama vs. Clemson (51)

2016/17 CFP NCG: Alabama vs. Washington (50.5)

2015/16 CFP NCG: Alabama vs. Clemson (50.5)

2017/18 Sugar Bowl: Alabama vs. Clemson (46.5)

2017/18 CFP NCG: Alabama vs. Georgia (45.5)

2015/16 Cotton Bowl: Alabama vs. Michigan State (45.5)  

– Overs are 8-7 in CFP history

– Overs are 4-6 in CFP semifinal history

List of CFP Upsets (sorted by biggest upset)

2014/15 Sugar Bowl: Ohio State (+7.5) over Alabama

2016/17 CFP NCG: Clemson (+6.5) over Alabama

2014/15 CFP NCG: Ohio State (+6) vs. Oregon

2018/19 CFP NCG: Clemson (+5) over Alabama

2015/16 Orange Bowl: Clemson (+3.5) over Oklahoma

2016/17 Fiesta Bowl: Clemson (+1) over Ohio State

– The CFP has had six teams reach it with undefeated records. Those teams are 4-2 straight-up and 3-3 against the spread (ATS) in semifinals and 3-4 straight-up and 4-3 ATS in the playoff overall. Clemson is the only undefeated team that has gone on to win the National Championship in the CFP era. 

All-Time CFP Records

LSU: 0-0 SU / 0-0 ATS

Ohio State: 2-1 SU / 2-1 ATS

Clemson: 5-2 SU / 6-1 ATS

Oklahoma: 0-3 SU / 0-3 ATS

– Oklahoma is trying to become the first team from the Big 12 to ever win a CFP game. The Big 12 is the only Power Five conference that has yet to win a CFP game.

– LSU is 1-0 SU and ATS against Oklahoma, winning the 2004 Sugar Bowl (LSU 21-14, LSU +6)

– Clemson is 2-0 SU and ATS against Ohio State, winning the 2016 CFP Semifinal (Clemson 31-0, Clemson +1.5) and the 2014 Orange Bowl (Clemson 40-35, Clemson +2.5)

Where to beat those SportsBetting odds? Joe Duffy of OffshoreInsiders.com is widely accepted as the greatest handicapper of all-time.  Get the picks now

Oklahoma-LSU Odds, Clemson-Ohio State Lines, Plus Wisconsin-Oregon, Georgia-Baylor

Final 4 odds are set for NCAA CFP. LSU got the number 1 seed and is a prohibitive favorite over fourth-seeded Oklahoma. Also third-seed Clemson is a slight chalk over Ohio State. Get them all at MyBookie

Dec 28

241

Oklahoma

+12½

-105

350

 

Ov

75

242

LSU

-12½

-115

-450

 

Un

75

 

243

Clemson

-2

-110

-120

 

Ov

63½

244

Ohio State

2

-110

100

 

Un

63½

 

Jan 1

267

Wisconsin

-2½

-125

       

268

Oregon

+2½

105

       
 

269

Baylor

7

-120

       

270

Georgia

-7

100