All posts by Joe Duffy

3 Free College Basketball Picks For Thursday From #1 Ranked Capper

I do have three college basketball winners that were all strongly considered for premium picks Thursday. 

CBB

ST. JOE’S +12.5 Richmond

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1809-1475-81. Regression to the mean angle is 937-761-28. When both angles apply in the same game, it is 48-29-1 for 62.3 percent. It is 8-4 last three years. The regression angle involves at least 12 games into the season, but still an anomaly that it applies three times today. 

CAL +11 Stanford

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1809-1475-81. Regression to the mean angle is 937-761-28. When both angles apply in the same game, it is 48-29-1 for 62.3 percent. It is 8-4 last three years. The regression angle involves at least 12 games into the season, but still an anomaly that it applies three times today. 

SIU EDWARDSVILLE +23.5 Belmont

High volume based on advanced metrics from last game including rebounds, field goal percentage is 1809-1475-81. Regression to the mean angle is 937-761-28. When both angles apply in the same game, it is 48-29-1 for 62.3 percent. It is 8-4 last three years. The regression angle involves at least 12 games into the season, but still an anomaly that it applies three times today. 

Top expert pick on today’s card is from Joe Duffy. Joe Duffy starts out the New Year 3-0 in bowls. 2020 will be another sensational year in every sport! Thursday Wise Guy side night game on Tennessee-IndianaTwo NBA totals as well. Get the picks now  

Great sportsbook 5 Dimes lives up to their name. Many of my highest rollers bet substantial amounts of money there and always get paid. They are also the #1 book for added rotation games, niche and obscure betting as well. 5 Dimes is fully vetted. The official book of high rollers!

Sportsbook Sets Lines For NFL Job Openings, Favorites for Each Job

As NFL head coach positions become available this week, the media and oddsmakers will prognosticate who will fill those vacancies.  

According to SportsBetting, Kevin Stefanski, Matt Rhule and Mike McCarthy are the favorites to be named the next coaches of Browns, Giants and Panthers, respectively. 

Josh McDaniels is the second favorite for every team. Numbers are subject to quickly change, and here are the current odds:

Browns head coach in Week 1 of 2020 season

Kevin Stefanski 5-2

Josh McDaniels 4-1

Mike McCarthy 6-1

Greg Roman 6-1

Urban Meyer 7-1

Dan Campbell 8-1

Lincoln Riley 10-1

Marvin Lewis 10-1

Matt Rhule 10-1

David Shaw 12-1

Jim Caldwell 12-1

Eric Bienemy 12-1

Giants head coach in Week 1 of 2020 season

Matt Rhule 2-1

Josh McDaniels 5-1

Dan Campbell 7-1

Robert Saleh 7-1

Kevin Stefanski 15-2

Don Martindale 9-1

Urban Meyer 10-1

Greg Roman 12-1

Mike McCarthy 12-1

Jay Gruden 14-1

Brian Daboll 14-1

Jim Harbaugh 16-1

Jason Garrett 20-1

Panthers head coach in Week 1 of 2020 season

Mike McCarthy 5-2

Josh McDaniels 4-1

Greg Roman 6-1

Matt Rhule 6-1

Kevin Stefanski 7-1

Perry Fewell 7-1

Brian Daboll 8-1

Jay Gruden 9-1

Mike LaFleur 9-1

Marvin Lewis 9-1

Jim Harbaugh 16-1

Seahawks-Eagles, Vikings-Saints Injury Report, Public Betting Consensus, Picks

Joe Duffy and OffshoreInsiders.com have NFC wildcard intel, injury reports, and critical betting information. 

Seahawks (-2, 46) vs. Eagles 

  • Better defense based on yards allowed as underdog in playoffs is 56-39 (Eagles) 
  • Playoff teams with more losses 90-64 (Eagles)
  • Russell Wilson 30 TDs and 4,000 yards 
  • Eagles DeSean Jackson doubtful for wildcard but could play after that
  • Eagles lost backup DE and key special teams player Daeshon Hall 
  • Eagles OG Brandon Brooks in out
    • Matt Pryor likely starts 
  • Eagles TE Zach Ertz is questionable 
    • 88 catches for 916 yards and 6 TDs
  • Eagles RB Jordan Howard expected to have bigger role after returning from a six-game absence last week
  • Eagles RB Myles Sanders day-to-day
    • 179 carries for 818 yards rushing, 509 yards receiving 
  • Seahawks starting FS Quandre Diggs is probable 
    • Just 5 games, 3 interceptions, forced fumble and 21 tackles 
  • Seahawks TE Luke Wilson expected to return
    • Good run blocker 
  • Seahawks LB Mychal Kendricks doubtful 
    • 79 tackles and three sacks 
  • 87 percent of bets and 74 percent of money on Seattle 

Pick: UNDER 7.5 first quarter 

Vikings vs. Saints (-8, 48)

  • Playoff dogs of 6.5 or more 46-32
  • Playoff teams with more losses 90-64 (Vikings) 
  • Teams with at least three more SU wins are 21-14 ats 
  • Saints 11-5 ats by 3.1 points per game, but Vikings 9-7 +2.8
  • 99 percent of bets and 97 percent of money on OVER 

The pick: New Orleans -2.5 first quarter 

Free pick and critical intel sponsored by Bovada sportsbook. Among the advantages

  • For horse racing, they have 94 tracks to bet on
  • Been paying all clients on-time since 2011
  • Over 4 billion slot spins since their inception
  • Blackjack tables approaching 2 million rounds
  • Post sports lines before most and carry what many have off the board

All this and more at Bovada 

Wild Card NFL Odds 2019 Posted

Betonline, home of the opening line has odds for wildcard week. The most intriguing odds has Philadelphia, at .500 a one-point favorite to Seattle. OffshoreInsiders.com will have previews and picks.

Saturday, Jan 04
Buffalo Bills 3 -105 38½ -110
Houston Texans -3 -115 38½ -110
Tennessee Titans 4 -105 40 -110
New England Patriots -4 -115 40 -110
Sunday, Jan 05
Minnesota Vikings 7 -110 44½ -110
New Orleans Saints -7 -110 44½ -110
Seattle Seahawks 1 -110 45½ -110
Philadelphia Eagles -1 -110 45½ -110

Black Monday Coaching Firing Odds Posted; Goodbye Jason Garrett

The holiday season will unceremoniously end for a few head men around the National Football League.

Black Monday firing papers will be handed out early next week, and SportsBetting has set odds on the probabilities of a handful of NFL head coaches being shown the door.

All five coaches listed on the board have odds pointing toward a termination. However, the over/under for total head coaches fired between Sunday and Wild Card Weekend is 3.5.

Current head coach odds and Week 17 prop bets at SportsBetting

Will Jason Garrett be fired by Week 1 of 2020 season?

Yes -500

No +300

(83.3% implied probability Garrett will be fired)

Will Pat Shurmur be fired by Week 1 of 2020 season?

Yes -175

No +135

(63.6% implied probability Shurmur will be fired)

Will Freddie Kitchens be fired by Week 1 of 2020 season?

Yes -150

No +110

(60.0% implied probability Kitchens will be fired)

Will Anthony Lynn be fired by Week 1 of 2020 season?

Yes -150

No +110

(60.0% implied probability Lynn will be fired)

Will Doug Marrone be fired by Week 1 of 2020 season?

Yes -200

No +150

(66.7% implied probability Marrone will be fired)

Total head coaches fired between end of Week 17 and first playoff game

Over 3.5 (-160)

Under 3.5 (+120)

Best sports picks at OffshoreInsiders.com  

Public Hammering LSU, Line Up to -6

The national championship is set, and oddsmakers have made LSU a slight favorite against Clemson. 

The initial line posted Saturday night at SportsBetting.ag showed LSU listed as a 3.5-point favorite over Clemson. However, early wagering forced a move to LSU -4, then -4.5 and then finally the current spread of -6.

The game’s over/under is set at 68.5 points, which is by far the highest total in CFP title game history (see complete list below). 

The moneylines, or the odds for each team to just win the game, are LSU -210 and Clemson +180. 

Current odds SportsBetting  

LSU started the season with 30/1 odds to win the CFP National Championship. Clemson’s odds were 13/2, or +650.

LSU’s dominant victory against Oklahoma, as well as the close contest between Clemson and Ohio State, impacted the calculation of the championship odds. On Thursday, SportsBetting.ag posted look-ahead lines for each of the four matchup scenarios and at that time an LSU-Clemson game was listed as a pick ’em or tossup.

CFP National Championship Spreads

2018-19: Alabama (-5) vs. Clemson

2017-18: Alabama (-3.5) vs. Georgia

2016-17: Alabama (-6.5) vs. Clemson

2015-16: Alabama (-6) vs. Clemson

2014-15: Oregon (-6) vs. Ohio State

CFP National Championship Over/Unders

2018-19: Alabama vs. Clemson (57.5)

2017-18: Alabama vs. Georgia (45.5)

2016-17: Alabama vs. Clemson (51)

2015-16: Alabama vs. Clemson (50.5)

2014-15: Oregon vs. Ohio State (72.5)

Clemson is 4-0 straight up (SU) and against the spread (ATS) when listed as an underdog when playing in the CFP. 

All-Time CFP Records

LSU: 1-0 SU / 1-0 ATS

Clemson: 6-2 SU / 7-1 ATS

Best sports picks and vetted bookies at OffshoreInsiders.com  

Early betting has 81 percent of bets and 82 percent of money on LSU. Also 63 percent of bets and 82 percent of money on OVER.