The Washington Redskins and the Indianapolis Colts kick
off the 2008-09 football betting season (official
handicapping preview). Sports
betting offers are rare opportunity for likely dividends during a tough
economic period. Gamblers do their own version of “offshore drilling”.

The great Emmitt Smith did a commercial in which he said
that championships are won in the preseason.
Of course I found it ironic that in said year he missed the entire
preseason and the first two games of the regular schedule before leading Dallas
to the Super Bowl. But I digress. The
thrust is that handicappers have a whole heap to win in the preseason as well.

I am exceedingly sure that you have heard it and
percentages say that you have uttered it as well. When I first began
handicapping I espoused the costly naivety too.

The fallacy is that nobody in their right mind would try
to foretell preseason battles. The
belief is that there are too many unknown factors to consider, too many
nameless and faceless Division II players on each side of the ball who will be
getting their only taste of the show for a few plays or series of downs.

True the argument behind this deduction is certainly based
on fact, but the conclusion in not only untrue, but very much the
contrary.

The reality is that smart players realize that such
mentioned disadvantages actually apply to the oddsmaker and not the
gambler. With the proliferation of
offshore sportsbooks and the competitiveness leading to sportsbooks posting
advanced lines earlier and earlier, the advantage continues to swing more and
more towards the player, well at least to the wise player.

Preseason lines
are made now a week in advance. After
the first week, so often once both opponents have completed their preceding
contest, a line is posted as rapidly as possible for the upcoming week.

The truthfulness is that the linesmakers have to deal with
a lot more uncertainty that the bettor does.
Of course lines do adjust—sometimes over adjust based on this
information and the public responding to it, but the sportsbooks are still
limited in exactly how much they can move the lines or they would get destroyed
by line shoppers and “middle” players.
“Bette Middlers” is what my cohort OC Dooley likes to call them.

Hometown newspapers are a Godsend for handicapping preseason
football. Rarely is there a game in
which coaches will not give out accurate information on quarterback and key
player rotations as well as injuries. It
is not remotely uncommon to find out because of injuries and other reasons that
a team for example may be without four of their top six offensive linemen or
many analogous situations.

As a general rule of thumb both offensive and defensive
schemes are pretty vanilla in the exhibition games (apologies to the late Mr.
Rozelle, that’s what they are). But yet
when teams have a new head coach or new coordinator or a lot of new players
projected to play key positions often coaches will throw in more stunts,
blitzes, etc.

But because the purpose is for the players to learn a
system and not to catch their opponent off-guard, such game plan is almost
never kept secret. However rarely in
preseason do coaches actually prepare for their opponent. Thus when research
uncovers that one team is working on some more sophisticated packages, while
the opponent is going to keep it
straightforward, the big plus goes to team planning on mixing it up.

There are eternal issues that affects how critically each
team approaches a particular preseason game, such as new systems on both or
either side of the ball, the number of established veterans on each team who
will only play some token downs merely for timing and getting in shape, the
number of positions and roster spots up for grabs, individual coaches
philosophies on how to approach a preseason game. The inventory really never ends.

But so often the coaches and key players own comments will
give strong insight into whether or not there is an enormous dichotomy in how
each team is approaching a forthcoming game.
Inevitably a coach especially one of a young or perennially losing team
will flat out state something to the effect, “We need to instill a winning
attitude and habit early. We want to
enter the regular season with some wins under our belt.” Not-so-uncommon annotations like that set off
sirens at GodsTips, anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com

The Dallas Cowboys for years were one of the great
preseason go-against plays, especially during the “Triplets” era of Irvin,
Smith and Aikman because most of the key starting positions were already etched
in stone. Whether or not Jimmy Johnson
or Barry Switzer was the coach, the Cowboys played future Arena Football
players using the most basic schemes.

Read those newspapers and you will find that on any given
preseason weekend, there will be several matchups in which one team will be
play key members longer than their opponent or that one team because of
injuries and precautions will be much more shorthanded at kickoff than their
foe.

It is always important to keep a close eye on teams whose
first and second string players were on one side of a dominating
performance. So often such will effect
how much work the key players will get the following week. If a veteran first unit outscored their foe
14-0 one week, there is a good chance that they be given little work the next
week. But do not assume this to be the
case. Hometown newspapers leave little
to speculation by printing coaches’ answers to the obvious questions.

It is a pretty good general rule of thumb that teams off
of humiliating losses will come out with vengeance the following week. But there is a reason that I qualified such
statement with “pretty good” and “general”.
Final scores can be deceptive in any and all sports but such is the case
even more so in preseason football.

If a team loses 28-7 but the first and second teams were
outscored 21-0, while the mop-up guys played evenly, it is a huge difference
than if it were visa versa. The third
and fourth stringers if totally outplayed are digging ditches and contacting
the Barcelona Dragons. But if it were
the primary players who were humiliated, they are the ones who have a fire lit
under them.

It is much more important to look at how the respective
top two units played than the actual final score. However one must very much take into account
all the extenuating factors involved entering the game, as illustrated
above. Perhaps a teams top two units
were shorthanded against an opponent who used complicated schemes breaking in
new systems. But I do love betting on
teams whose first and second units got a good ole fashioned no-excuses butt
whipping to rebound accordingly.

One has to though find that fine line between going with
all of the above factors and being mindful of line moves. This is particularly
so with the public jumping on the same side that you are.

I honestly can not give a definitive scientific
explanation of exactly how my handicapping has been complimented so well by
line moves, other than to know that it defies any laws of probability. But
somewhere there is a congruency amongst my handicapping techniques, the opening
line and public perception that affects the line moves.

I can with full honesty say that in preseason just as I do
during the regular season; I win a lot more than I lose. However so many times if early in the week I
pencil side A as a play only to have the public bet side A so much that the
line moves enough to scare me off of the game, only to have side B cover both
ends of the line move. Somehow there is
a complimentary congruency in my handicapping that increases my winning
percentage even further.

But all factors equal, I very much like going against
preseason line moves of 2’
or more points. When those moves are not justified by the factors outlined
about, I often make selections based about 85% on unjustified line, moves. But line moves that I deem justified more
times than not results in a no-play.

The modus operandi that applies in the regular season and
postseason handicapping are completely different than that of the preseason. Once a talented handicapper realizes that, he
has taken first step towards a nice regular season bankroll. But after that, it
still takes research, research, research…

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Can the Redeem Team bring back the Gold Medal in men’s
basketball to the USA?
Despite recent ineptitude, Team USA
led by Kobe Bryant, LeBron James, Chris Paul, Carmelo
Anthony and Dwayne Wade are overwhelming 1/4 favorites to not flop this campaign.

The Americans did look impressive in sweeping all three
tune-up contests. Spain,
led by Pau Gasol,
Jose-Manuel Calderon, and Juan Carlos Navarro is next at 7/2. Clutch Manu
Ginobili leads Argentina,
which seems like a fantastic long shot at 10/1.

The Argentineans also have NBA players Fabricio
Oberto, Luis Scola, Andres Nocioni, and Carlos Delfino.

Russia
is 14/1, followed by Lithuania
at 20/1. In contrast to previous Olympiads, neither of the former Soviet
countries features a current NBA athlete.

The famed “Miracle on Ice” when the USA shocked the world
and won the 1980 Olympic hockey Gold Medal, is widely considered to be the
biggest sports story of last century, as voted by virtually ever media outfit
that compiled such a list.

The oddsmakers are apparently given little credence to a
major factor in the stunner: being the host country. Host China
is a mind-boggling 50/1 despite being led by current NBA stars Yao Ming, Yi Jianlian, former NBA player Wang Zhizhi and several CBA
contributors. All the ingredients for a “Miracle on Rice” are there.

Perennial power Croatia
is also considered a probable also ran at 100/1. Check out all the Beijing Olympic
betting odds.

The kickoff of the 2008 season still is weeks away but
there are at least a couple of good reasons why college football betting should
be near the top of your wagering playbook right now.

For starters, it’s never too early to begin
researching the upcoming gridiron campaign, which begins with 14 games on
Thursday, Aug. 28. More importantly, sportsbooks already have future book lines
posted, asking gamblers to wager on which university will be crowned the Bowl
Champion Series (BCS) national titleholder in Miami,
January
8, 2009.

Sure, some future book lists are drenched with vigorish, but savvy bettors understand that a swig of
bitter juice this summer may be worth the discomfort if you can taste the fruit
at the end of the vine come January. That’s because while betting an individual
team may have some value in and of itself, the real advantage is in holding a ticket
on a live team for the BCS title game.

In that regard, bettors need not pick the winner of
the BCS game, just one of the two participants. If you have the favorite in
futures, then you can assure yourself a solid payday by betting the underdog in
the championship game. You can take the points and possibly win twice-if your
future book favorite wins but does not cover-or opt for the dog on the money
line, where you’ll only win once, but the return on the underdog will be
greater.

If you hold a future book ducat on the BCS underdog,
then a profit can be assured by betting the favorite on the money line.

Of course, before any of this college football
betting manipulation can take place, you have to identify a likely candidate
(or three) for the BCS title game. Like last year, it’s unlikely that the
championship game will feature an undefeated team and, as was the case last
season, even a team with two defeats could play for the title.

With that in mind, let’s look at some early
contenders (future book odds in parentheses):

Southern Cal (3/1): The Trojans
have some huge holes to fill (seven players were drafted in the first two
rounds) but Coach Pete Carroll has shown an ability to quickly reload and this
year should be no different.  What’s more, USC gets all its toughest foes—Ohio
State, Oregon, Cal,
Arizona State
and Notre Dame—at home, where they’re 35-1, straight up, since 2001.

Florida
(13/2): Sixteen returning starters, including Heisman Trophy
winning quarterback Tim Tebow auger well for the
Gators making a strong rn at their second national
title in three years.  The schedule is favorable with top opponents LSU
and South Carolina forced to
visit The Swamp and Georgia on a neutral field in Jacksonville. 
Still, getting through the SEC minefield unscathed won’t be easy.

Ohio State (8/1): The
Buckeyes return 19 starters from last year’s BCS runner-up, the most of any
team in the top 25.  Their defense is rock solid but Ohio
STate has
a September trip to USC that could derail their title aspirations, if only
temporarily.

Oklahoma (10/1): Sam
Bradford, the NCAA’s most efficient quarterback last
season, returns, as do a doszen other starters, and the Sooners meet all their most challenging
opponents including Texas Tech, Nebraska
and Kansas, at home.  Missouri
is ot on this year’s
schedule and, as usual, the game against Texas
in Dallas, Oct. 11, will go a long
way in deciding each team’s future.

Georgia (10/1): The good
news is that the Bulldogs, who finished ranked second nationally a season ago,
return 17 starters.  The bad news is that they have the third most
difficult schedule in college football this year, paying top 25 teams LSU, Auburn
and South Carolina on the road
and Florida on a neutral
field.  Win three out of four and Georgia
could be in the title game.

Texas (12/1): Given a
brutal schedule that features games against Oklahoma,
Texas Tech, Missouri and Kansas,
we think 12/1 is a little light for a team that returns just 11 starters.

Virginia
Tech (15/1), Missouri (15/1), LSU (18/1), West Virginia (20/1), Auburn (20/1),
Clemson (20/1), Wisconsin (30/1), Illinois (30/1), Tennessee (30/1) and Kansas
(33/1) all have appeal
as college football betting future book longshots who
could surprise in what looks like a wide-open race to the BCS title.

Tiger Woods is injured, and Phil Mickelson has
never performed very well at the British Open, so that leaves South Africa’s
Ernie Els as the big Vegas favorite to win the major.
British Open odds.

Els went into The Open Championship at just 8/1 odds to grab
the trophy, which is something he did at this tournament back in 2002. Els has also had a lot of close calls at the event, with
three second-place results (1996, 2000, and 2004), two third-place finishes
(2001 and 2006), and a fourth-place finish at last year’s tourney at Carnoustie.

Mickelson falls in behind Els
on the odds list at 10/1, with Sergio Garcia at 12/1, and both Justin Rose and
defending champion Padraig Harrington at 15/1. Lee
Westwood, Jim Furyk, Adam Scott, Retief
Goosen, and Vijay Singh were all pegged at 20/1 odds
to get the win by Vegas, with Geoff Ogilvy and Luke Donald just a little
farther back at 25/1.

Other notables and their British Open odds this
week include Stuart Appleby (30/1), Stewart Cink
(35/1), Justin Leonard (35/1), K.J. Choi (35/1), Stephen Ames (40/1), and Mike Weir (40/1).
Miguel Angel Jimenez is a longshot at just 60/1 odds
to get the victory.

The start of the 2008 British Open at Royal Birkdale dominates the sports news on Thursday, but Major
League Baseball also swings back into action. There are four games on the
diamond Thursday, with the Mets at Cincinnati, San
Diego at St. Louis, and Pittsburgh at Colorado in the NL, and Detroit at Baltimore in the AL.

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The top pitching matchup will be in St. Louis, where the Padres’ Jake Peavy
(7-5, 2.47 ERA) will take on the Cardinals’ Kyle Lohse
(11-2, 3.39 ERA). Peavy has allowed more than three
earned runs in an outing only twice this year – and it hasn’t happened since he
returned from the DL on June 12. The righthander is
coming off a strong outing against the Braves in which he tossed seven
scoreless innings and fanned seven hitters.

Lohse is 8-0 with two no-decisions over his last 10 starts,
allowing three or fewer earned runs in nine of those outings. The righthander also tossed seven scoreless innings in his last
trip to the mound, striking out three Pirates and giving up six hits in his 11^th
victory.

Johan Santana, well rested since he wasn’t invited
to the All-Star Game, will start for the Mets on Thursday, and he’ll be looking
to help the team run its winning streak to 10 games. The lefthander blanked the
Giants on three hits over five innings in his final start of the first half,
but he’d gone winless over his six starts prior to that despite solid lines.
Santana is scheduled to face the Reds’ Johnny Cueto,
who lost the Cubs last time out.

There are three WNBA
games on the schedule for Thursday, with Minnesota at Houston, Washington at New
York, and Los Angeles at Phoenix. The Sparks got another big game from Candace Parker on Monday night as
they cruised to a 75-62 win over the Silver Stars. Parker tossed in 24 points
and grabbed 10 rebounds on the night.

Finally, there’s on Canadian Football League game on tap for Thursday, with
the Tiger-Cats out in Calgary to
face the Stampeders. Hamilton
is just 1-2 straight up and 1-2 against-the-spread so far this season, but the
one time they did cover was on the road. Calgary
is 2-1 SU and 2-1 ATS, and they managed to cover in their only home contest.