We will admit that 2012 was not the 12 months of windfall profits that we’ve established over the last nearly 30 years. But clearly things are getting back to normal after last Sunday’s 6-1 NFL, then being on the right side of Cincinnati over Duke when we’ve been on the other end 100 percent of the time this season.
Then what is yet again becoming commonplace: an 8-3 Saturday! Here is what many of you got. Those who didn’t, ask yourself why? GodsTips, the anchor of OffshoreInsiders.com
Wise Guy plays are your maximum play. Majors are .75 of Wise Guy plays. We always urge line shopping to compliment the sharpest plays in the world and release plays as early as possible to ensure more success. Often our plays are released before most sportsbooks have lines up. If we released plays later in the day, it would allow us to shop for better lines than we are able to post. But we are more concerned about YOU being able to shop for better lines.
Be aware that in many cases better lines will be available than the ones we post. Game of the Year and Game of the Month plays still involve the same straight betting as above. While we believe all gamblers need only bet our plays we realize some pick and choose selections. Said distinction is for such ala carte players. All units won quoted on systems are based on one unit per bet.
CFB
Wise Guy…
SYRACUSE +3.5 West Virginia
The game is a bit closer for Syracuse 195 to 323 miles, so they will have a bit of a regional edge. But West Virginia will have a tough time getting inspired as they had delusions about a possible BCS run and a Heisman Trophy with QB Geno Smith. WVU was exposed as a fraud.
Ryan Nassib, Syracuse’s QB, is not quite as prolific as Smith but he certainly has more than a few statistical highlights of note.
He set a school record for most passing yards in a season (3,619) on his way to becoming only the fourth quarterback in Big East history to pass for more than 9,000 yards in a career.
Nassib also ranks in the top four in Syracuse history in touchdown passes (68), completions (780), completion percentage (60.5), passing efficiency (132.8), passing yards per game (201.3), total offense (9,215) and total offense per game (196.1).
To really get an idea of just how dangerous Nassib and this passing offense can be, consider this: his 8.1 yards per attempt (YPA) mark ranks tied for 25th nationally.
The Mountaineers have allowed 457 points this season, which is the highest points allowed total in school history. The bulk of those points have come through the air, as West Virginia’s defense is allowing 9.6 yards per pass attempt and has an incredibly bad 36-9 touchdown/interception ratio.
TEXAS +3 Oregon State
Texas will travel 74 miles to San Antonio. Oregon St will travel 1709 miles. The long layoff benefits the underachieving Horns and hurts overachiever OSU. This will especially help David Ash, the talented Texas QB who is much better than he played this year.
Oregon State struggled for Oregon’s speed. The Longhorns have two talented sophomore running backs in Malcolm Brown and Joe Bergeron, but it was Jonathan Gray, the true freshman, who led the team with 683 rushing yards.
Young players have a huge upside and Gray has Oregon type speed. That is bad news for the Beavers. Texas has two talented corners in Quandre Diggs and Carrington Byndom, but they have not performed up to their talent this year. Another reason why the Horns are much better than their stats and will use the break to regress to their mean.
Major…
West Virginia-Syracuse OVER 71.5
Minor bowl games with a total of 68 or higher have gone over at 24-12. Yes two unders have happened recently but both of those totals skyrocketed. This one actually has gone down because of likely snow. But winds are expected at 5-10 mph, so the slippery field will benefit the offense and have more big plays in the passing game.
There are a number of college football teams that can boast of having as much passing and receiving talent as West Virginia, but no other program right now can say it has two 1,000-yard wide receivers and a 4,000-yard passer.
The first of those wideouts is Tavon Austin. Austin is the Mountaineers career leader in receptions (284) and receiving yards (7,136), and ranks second in career touchdown receptions (29).
Both teams have big time quarterbacks. The Mountaineers have allowed 457 points this season, which is the highest points allowed total in school history. The bulk of those points have come through the air, as West Virginia’s defense is allowing 9.6 yards per pass attempt and has an incredibly bad 36-9 touchdown/interception ratio.
RICE +2 Air Force
This is a competitor consensus. If we have a lean one way and one of the few sports services or sources we respect has a big pick on a certain side, we pass along as a competitor consensus.
NAVY +14 Arizona State
This is a sharp versus square, which is when our Vegas, offshore, and outlaw contacts tell us the majority of sharp money is betting one team, the square money the other. We go with the smart money as contrarian betting is used by many professional gamblers.
Michigan State +2 tcu
MSU has a very deceptive record dropping close contests against the nation’s fifth-toughest schedule, falling by fewer than four points in all but one of its losses. Oh the biggest blowout was 20-3 to No. 1 Notre Dame. The other five were by a combined 13 points.
The level of competition makes impressive Michigan State junior running back Le’Veon Bell. Bell led the Big Ten and ranked third nationally with 137.3 rushing yards per game, including a career-high 266 yards in the Spartans’ season-finale against Minnesota.
TCU found that no longer beating up in the mid-majors was not so easy as they had some tough sledding against the Big 12.
Instead of the quick-and-athletic defenses TCU faced in its first season in the Big 12, the Spartans (6-6) are big, physical and love to knock opponents around.
Michigan State finished the regular season with the nation’s fourth-best defense, giving up 273.25 yards per game, and was 10th in scoring, allowing 16.33 points.
CBB
Wise Guy…
NORTH CAROLINA -4.5 unlv
Huge revenge game for the Heels. Mike Moser’s 16 points and 18 rebounds helped UNLV pull off a 90-80 upset of No. 1 North Carolina on Nov. 26 of last season, but a dislocated right elbow suffered in a win over California on Dec. 9 will keep him from attempting to repeat that performance.
UNLV has gotten erratic play from the front court, which will haunt them in their toughest game of the year. UNC has lost to some good teams, but now they have a statement game at home. UNLV will travel 2004 miles to Chapel Hill.
Major…
SANTA CLARA +18 Duke
The big chalks are going to be rusty, the underdogs red-hot and have all the motivation to keep it close. Duke coach Mike Krzyzewski said his players earned some time away from campus even if they hadn’t been unbeaten.
His top-ranked Blue Devils are back at school and will play for the first time in nine days Saturday at home against a Santa Clara team that has won six straight and hasn’t lost in regulation all season.
Following back-to-back home wins Dec. 19-20, Krzyzewski sent his team home for the holidays. Duke (11-0) did not return to practice until Wednesday. He seems to be focused on the bigger picture. The Hall of Fame coach said he would exclusively work on conditioning in the Blue Devils’ return to practice going into a stretch that includes Wednesday’s trip to Davidson before the start of ACC play next Saturday against Wake Forest.
UCSC could potentially be a bubble-team in March. So they know a close loss is a win. It will be for us too.
LOUISIANA TECH -5 Denver
Denver has lost all four road games this year by seven or more. Louisiana Tech has yet to lose at home, all six wins by four or more, four by double-digits. Tech has been tested and passed the test. They are more than ready. The demanding 12-game stretch culminated on Dec. 17 in Little Rock, Ark. with the Bulldogs winning in nail-biting fashion over the UALR Trojans, 75-73.
The dogfight of a victory came on the heels of their fourth road contest in five games and ended the Trojans seven-game home winning streak.