Wednesday, December 7, 2022

Tonight’s NBA basketball betting breakdown.

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Sacramento OVER 

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: Boston

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: Golden State -1.5 now +7.5; Toronto -8.5 to -12.5

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: New Orleans UNDER, Brooklyn UNDER

Tonight’s college basketball betting breakdown.

🏀 Biggest bets in terms of percentage of wagers: Merrimack, Alabama State

🏀 Biggest bets based on percentage of money: CS Northridge, West Carolina

🏀 Largest line moves, opener to current: Sacramento State -3 to -6.5, Purdue -18.5 to -21.5

🏀 Biggest splits. Teams listed have a highest percent of cash compared to bets: Hawaii 

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There is a belief that contrarian betting is one of the strongest tools of professional gamblers. The books win more often than lose and fading the public is what many sharps exploit as a weapon. Most contrarian handicapper love to fade based on percentage of bets, believing the squarest intel comes from the smallest wagers. Others believe percentage of money is the most effective tool, because they are rooting for the same bets as the always profitable sportsbooks. The above link shows the most successful professional gamblers have a sliding scale. 

The theory is to bet against the public. However, some use the splits and bet on the teams that have a significantly higher percentage of money than bets. 

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NBA market report:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Lakers (public dog); Dallas OVER 

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Denver; Miami UNDER

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: None

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Cleveland -4 to -4.5

College basketball market report:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: High Point, Charleston, Wofford

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: UMKC, High Point, Abiline Christian

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Oakland, UMKC 

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Arkansas -16.5 to -20.5, Montana +2.5 to -1.5, TCU -23 to -19.5, UMBC -5.5 to -8.5

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Who is the public betting on for Friday, December 2. 

NBA betting market report:

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Denver, Golden State, Cleveland 

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: New Orleans, Denver; LA Lakers OVER

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Houston; Atlanta UNDER, Boston UNDER

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Denver -2 to -3.5

College basketball market report: 

🏀 Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Georgia, Bryant, Charleston Southern

🏀 Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: JMU, Kent State, Appalachian State, Texas Arlington, GA Tech

🏀 Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Brown, Texas Arlington

🏀 Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none 

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