We Pro Gamblers Literally Use Oddmakers’ Forte Again Them; Here is How

Envision if as an opposing coach you had the authority to literally use Michael Jordan’s talent against him. Or Wayne Gretzky’s. I am speaking of in their prime. It’s not a trick question. That describes what advanced analytics is and why all the supreme handicappers harness this edge.

If I could summarize what many angles in next gen handicapping boast in one word, it would be “counterintuitive.” Longstanding clients are already in the know. If one couldn’t even name one player or was untaught of the rules of a sport, she could still dominate betting by going contrary to normal bettor expectations.  As an example, she could simply eyeball SU records, compare it to the pointspread and observing the line makes no sense, based on said, criterion, we use the oddsmakers knowledge against them.

Case in point. Team A has a stronger winning percentage than Team B. Yet Team A is a home underdog. Squares will go giddy trusting the home underdogs are a “lock.” Sharps make the oddsmaker’s forte their own. We pros know that road favorites despite inferior records are 220-183-5 in the NBA. Because home court is worth 3-4 points, a team with the same record “should” be favorite at home.

As the sharp knows, that is fake news. Road favorites with an identical winning percentage as their opponent are 91-78-2. That’s a combined 311-261-7 using the oddmaker’s knowledge against them.

There are skilled handicappers out there and I have no problem admitting that many of them probe personnel matchups much better than I do. Their challenge from a handicapping standpoint is that oddsmakers know the talent discrepancies as well as anyone. The linesmakers are the Michael Jordans of handicapping, so to speak.

Rather than just scouting the teams, we know and exploit the strengths of the linesmaker and make their metier our own.

There are countless examples beyond the most basic one above. In short, if the point spread in comparison to the straight up records “just doesn’t make sense,” there is a very good chance it makes dollars instead.

The author, Joe Duffy, is CEO of OffshoreInsiders.com the place to go for best sports picks and vetted sportsbooks. He is the top expert on next generation handicapping. 

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