Sports are coming back. I think. Well, I hope.
My handicapping is evidence informed validated with statistically meaningful proof. Most sports will conduct business on home fields, as opposed to the NBA and NHL, which will compete in bubble situations and hub cities. But the stadiums and arenas will be played absent of fans for the foreseeable future.
Indubitably, the definitive gambling issue is how will this affect many of our systems that are site explicit? On one hand, would could argue the absence of fans reduces HFA (home field advantage). Conversely, the unprecedented world situation should make the comfort of home, security of sleeping in one’s own bed, that much more considerable.
My educated opinion is there won’t be a big change in HFA. Most likely, there will be gross overreaction. Sites like Covers and Action Network will tell us statistically irrelevant minutia like the road team has covered seven of the first 10 games. Heck, on Twitter, I might too. I often like the I report, you decide method on my sports handicapping podcasts.
The citizenry is sure to pursue fool’s gold and ride early patterns. We will stay on course. Fortunately, our famed “math totals,” innovative principles that cross sports, are not site specific.
I am going to track patterns possibly shifting due to the uniqueness of the situation. Do not misinterpret that I will neglect the extraordinary circumstances. However, I am not going to induce knee-jerk amendments. Keep in mind, my advanced analytics measure oddsmaker over-adjustments and their reaction to the public outsmarting themselves. And that’s where my biggest edge will be.
From one of the greatest movies off all-time, It’s a Wonderful Life, Peter Bailey says, “Can’t you understand what’s happening here? Don’t you see what’s happening? Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why. He’s pickin’ up some bargains.”
There is a very good chance that will accurately describe my winnings in these exceptional circumstances.